Mafia #72: Heads of State. Game Thread

[Crackleslap]

@Kryllian you say you "put my money where my mouth is", and vote shiro. So why didn't you just stick to that vote? There was a sudden surge of votes for Allowyn shortly afterwards. You change your vote with no other text. So I question again, why? I understand the whole "I wanted to get a lynch off". But, its strange. You commit to a vote, but simply change it, even on the same page. It seems fickle.

[Graeham]

Allowyn was also on Marack's trust list so at some point that may be a lead worth pursuing I think. Consider my vote on Kryllian for the added pressure.

[Marack]

So, Looking back at my notes and being more then halfway through the day...
Blood Fox hasnt been around at all D3
JynxieJ hasnt been around at all D3
@Blood Fox @JynxieJ @Graeham How do you feel about lynching Kryllian? Do you have any other targets of interest today?

It seems pretty evident that Kryl will be getting the axe, unless some other information comes out that directs the gameday another way.

- - - Updated - - -

Allowyn was also on Marack's trust list so at some point that may be a lead worth pursuing I think. Consider my vote on Kryllian for the added pressure.

I did have Allowyn as leaning trust on my list. Said it was basically a gutfeel. I didnt have anything on them that seemed scummy other then NOT really playing the game. That lead, if pushed, will give you the same information ive said multiple times. You would just lose someone that only has their voice/vote.

[Anakso]

Well, I was hoping we'd get to prove cruelles role, while letting him take kryll with him. Also from the sounds of it, it may be good for him to get some of his abilities to 100% chance so personally I'm going to

Vote: cruelle
Nominate kryll to take with you

Yea it's only a 75% chance kryll goes too but I'm willing to gamble with those odds mostly because I'd like to see this Cruelle thing through to the end rather than drag it out.

[Graeham]

@Marack: I'm not opposed to seeing him lynched. I think he's sort of just been 'there' so far during this game and even people suspect him that we stand to gain information from lynching him. As for other targets I'm disappointed that Blood Fox and Jynx are so quiet and seemingly being given a free pass despite a lack of contribution though with Crackle's 'innocent' on Jynx it's not a lead I'd like to pursue aggressively at this time.

[Marack]

@Graeham The innocent did take the wind out of the sails for pressuring them to come forth and play. Then again, I dont know where they live or what kind of RL obligations. Day is almost ¾ over and they havent come to weigh in on the discussion. Kinda sucks. Agree with the Kryl lynch gives us some info based on others reads of him. I cant recall anything of much value added by Kryl.

[Graeham]

@Graeham The innocent did take the wind out of the sails for pressuring them to come forth and play. Then again, I dont know where they live or what kind of RL obligations. Day is almost ¾ over and they havent come to weigh in on the discussion. Kinda sucks. Agree with the Kryl lynch gives us some info based on others reads of him. I cant recall anything of much value added by Kryl.

They're both prone to bouts of inactivity so whilst they could have a legitimate excuse for being busy it could go either way. With the way night kills are playing out, though, I'm unlikely to weep very much if they happen to be killed. Engaged, active players are much more valuable and interesting regardless of their alignment - whilst inactive, uninterested Town are a liability.

[Kryllian]

Well everyone seems interested in lynching me. I get why scum are jumping on the train but it's a bit surprising that I'm being picked for the same actions as a number of other people so far this game (i.e. starting trains then switching votes, posting but "not contributing much", saying I lean neutral on someone who flips scum.) But I'm guessing no matter what I say my day is up since there's only a few people posting and the rest are happy to sit back and watch.

For what it's worth I'm Australian Prime Minister - Malcolm Turnbull who is apparently a bit of a jerk. I'm guessing some players are going to want to lynch me on the name alone. My only use to town besides my vote is if I am voted on without being lynched I can one time investigate anyone who was on my train at close of day. After that I become a normal VT.

[listo95]

Kry if that is the truth I'm starting to doubt the "back to basics" this game was advertised as... Because as useful as that possibly would sound... It doesn't seem very basic.

[Graeham]

Kry if that is the truth I'm starting to doubt the "back to basics" this game was advertised as... Because as useful as that possibly would sound... It doesn't seem very basic.

Then, ideally, we need to lynch Cruelle or Kryllian to see if Celtic was telling the truth or not. Though that pretty much seems to be what today is going to ultimately end up with anyway. If they're telling the truth and they're town then we know it's very likely that scum have some weirdness going on as well. If they're lying, though, then they'll likely flip scum.

[Crackleslap]

@Kryllian you should be lynched for being Malcolm Turnbull alone. FK THE LNP!

[Graeham]

Friendly reminder that as of this post there's roughly 12 hours left until the deadline.

[Marack]

I see not much has happened throughout my raid... So I reserve my vote for the morning. Ill be around the 3-4 hours prior to end of day.

[shirokitsune]

Weighing in.

So many people seem to want to take you down Kryllian... That said... The grab text of back to basics and go.... sounded good. But already it sounds like it's not.
----
Check me on my understanding @Reticence/@Danner/@Crackle since you 3 hosted games prior. Taking my questions here from what I remember reading in the WIKI about this over a month ago.

A basic game would have:
Town w/likely 1 maybe 2 cops for size, and a doctor.
Mafia w/likely a GF, and goons. Not sure if a strongarm qualifies as basic. Not sure if mafia would be given an investigative type.
Potentially a SK/VIG.

Would a basic game include masons, a role blocker, a jester/bomb/innocent/wtfeveritis, and all this other stuff that's been claimed?
This sounds more advanced than basic.
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Game setup aside. I started my day willing to vote (and did) on you Kryllian, even though I was going to hopefully give you a pass for the day and see how the night phase went. @Kryllian is at 5 of 9 as of #672 with 1(Graeham) giving a vote intent w/o a vote. I'll go ahead and re-add my vote pushing it to 6 of 9.

Vote Kryllian

But I must admit to being curious. have some more speculation coming.

[Graeham]

Vote: Cruelle

After much thought this is where I'm most comfortable parking my vote for today. Ultimately we need to figure out as early as possible if Celtic was telling the truth about this being a 'basic' game or whether there are, in fact, some very unusual roles. I also feel as though Cruelle claiming very early on in the day ended up leaving us without much else to discuss.

I'm not against shifting my vote over to Kryllian but it does feel like there's an odd resistance to lynching Cruelle despite the dubious situation we find ourselves in. If Cruelle is a Jester as some suspect then it's likely that scum will leave her alive and seek to play upon the confusion surrounding her. Cruelle, meanwhile, would do all she can to try and get lynched.

It's all rather strange.

[Crackleslap]

A basic game would have a normal Cop, Doctor, JK, Vigi, Body Guard, Tracker or Watcher. Any number of these, doubt all of them. Possible SK, Mafia may have one SPR.

Masons wouldn't be too unsurprising in a basic game. But that entirely depends on the game size. Smaller number of players the less likely.

Cruelle's claim is way too fancy for a basic game. I'd say Kryll's is too. But Celtic could be a lying bastard!

[Danner]

@shirokitsune:

A "back to basics" game would contain a cop, maybe a doctor, maybe a joat, a godfather, maybe a mafia roleblocker, a bunch of VTs, a bunch of mafia goons, and maybe just maybe a serial killer to speed up the game, and least possible but still possible, a vigilante to weed out the absconders. The setup could be one or two scumteams, but for game progress reasons we should have at least 2 night kills about in a game of this size. As seen in the D&D game, nobody likes a game that lasts for 15 gamedays.

If Cruelle's claim is correct, this clearly isn't a "back to basics" game. That means our mods are lying, and anything is possible. But if Cruelle is correct, then there shouldn't be much downside to lynching Cruelle.

If Cruelle's claim is incorrect, then Cruelle is a damned liar. Lynching Cruelle is the only sane answer. If Cruelle is a collared scum, we blow Cruelle's collar now rather than lategame. If Cruelle is an insane-players-never-lynch-the-obvious-target-gambit scum then we lynch scum (but only if we actually commit to lynching Cruelle). Both outcomes are favourable.

The Jester angle is a bit special in that consideration. Jester is really a not-often-seen role, because it's somewhat bastardy. If Cruelle is a Jester, then that implies the mods are lying about this is a back-to-basics game, so it's really not that different from the case where Cruelle's claim is correct. Apart from the point that we help Cruelle win. Though generally, lynching a jester shouldn't end the game, so at worst it's a distraction that costs us a lynch. That's a given outcome with a jester about anyway, and the game should be balanced around it. So really we lose nothing.

There's some even worse possible situations about. Hypotetically, Cruelle is some sort of godshot scum role, that gains immortality / superpowers through lynching. But frankly, that's terrible terrible game design. Town should never be punished for lynching scum. So I am quite willing to ignore this possibility and just blame the mods if that is actually the case.

All in all I see no major reason to not lynch Cruelle. I really see no reason for scum to lie about this. The risk here is that claimed 25% chance that Cruelle can't take anyone along for the ride, wasting the day. But there are upsides. So ... eh?

[shirokitsune]

Continuing speculation

Votes on Kryll occured:
Xanj #653, dupti #655, crackle #656, virothe #659, crissi #660, and Shiro #581/#674

With an intent but not offical declaration from
Graeham #662

And with 3 votes on Cruelle
(3) Cruelle - Cruelle #556, Anakso #664, Graeham 675 (midwriteup)


This leaves the following people undecided.
BloodFox, Danner, Dethmorne, Jynx, Listo, and Reti

And 1 reserving judgement until T-4 or T-3 hours.
Marack

---
We started with 21, so far 2 mafia (Catta/Allown) and 2 town (Arialla/Uggor) have died per declared role cards.

My speculations are thus.
Assumption 1: Mafia started with probably 5, maybe 6 people - Basing this on game #70 for size 25 done 6/2/17, and Game #71 for size 13 done 3/1/9. Looks to roughly be around 25% of starting population.
Assumption 2: Crackle is being honest and that Crackle is town therefore Jynxie is town.
Assumption 3: Cruelle is being honest and that Cruelle is town.
Assumption 4: I'm being honest and that I'm town. (is it really an assumption if I know it's a fact?)
Assumption 5: Kryllian is scum.

This means for this Kryllian vote we have 17 players (VotesRemaining-17):
Cruelle and Anakso aren't voting on Kryllian (Vr-15).
Via Assumption #1 and #3: 3 or 4 of the VRs are scum votes.
Possibly leaves only 2-3 Scum VRs if Anakso is scum (Hmm there's a thought)
Via Assumptions #2 and #4: 2 votes are town [Crackle/Myself] (Vr-13).
Kryllian hasn't voted for himself (Vr-12), Scum VRs reduced by 1.

This leaves 12 VRs with 1-2 being scum if Anakso is Scum, 2-3 if Anakso isn't scum.
If we take Jynx out of the VR's due to Assumption #2, that leaves 11 VRs for scum to hide in.
We have 4 votes on kryllian with align undetermined via declared assumptions.
My conclusions: 1 of these 4 (xanj, dupti, virothe, crissi) is probably scum.
We have 7 people who haven't declared yet, and 1 who has half-voted while writing this.
My conclusions:
Graeham - Probably scum, has intent declared, but switched to Cruelle in #675 (midwriteup)
Jynx - Per assumptions, town.
Marack - Potentially scum, probably not. Looks to be hoping for more info in remaining hours.
BloodFox - Per Assumption #2, and the caveat that BloodFox isn't lying either... Town...
Danner - Leaning town, especially with explanations for game mechs both good and bad in #677 (midwriteup)
Dethmorne - Leaning scum... Even with a metagame gutfeel that you can't easily hotswap mafia, I don't get town vibes.
Listo - Leaning scum... Just seems to be lurking, doesn't feel right.
Reticence - Unsure... Used to seeing a bit more activity... Could just be life got real.


So at least one of my scum reads is wrong given that I'm assuming only 3-4 scum remaining in total and, assuming Kryllian is one of them, with 1 in the first 4 being probable and 4 candidates in the undeclared pool.

I think we're going to get a lot of info out of Kryllian's lynch even if it ends up being a mislynch now either way. Voting Cruelle though may be the better game play, but at this point it might be better to just plan on lynching Cruelle tommorow. I have to admit though, Cruelle seems awfullly particular about wanting to die on THIS day phase, which is starting to strike me as very odd.

- - - Updated - - -

And thanks @Crackleslap and @Danner for enlightening me about this. More to think about.

[Xanjori]

Kryllians claim makes me even more convinced we've caught another scum. I think he is blowing hot air and Cruelle's crazy claim is what is giving people pause for thought, Kryllian is just trying to exploit it.

[dupti]

That's some strange logic.
@shirokitsune, so if you think there is a scum in me, Crissi, Virothe and Xanjori who do you think it is?