Why it's time to accept the fact that Brexit may never happen

[xenogear3]

Whether Brexit happens or not, it doesn't matter.

I give 50 years.
After 50 years, both Euro and EU will not exist.

It is either rich country leaves one by one or via WW3.

[Deleted]

US government is hoping brexit doesn't happen. Personally it would be neat to see cause it's a historical event, but it doesn't affect me either way.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7148816.html1. The Conservative government has a small majority of just 12 seats.2. Prime minister Theresa May is pro-Remain.3. A majority of MPs are pro-Remain. "Parliament had a clear pro-Remain bias since over 70% of all MPs and over 50% of Conservative MPs supported Remain," according to Morgan Stanley.4. The government faces a general election in 2020, right after the UK — in theory — leaves the EU.5. One million UK voters live in EU countries. The vast majority of them will vote against any government that threatens their EU residency status.6. Reduced access to the single market will hurt the economy. The mere prospect of it is already triggering a recession in the second half of this year.7. Do the Tories really want to go into the 2020 election defending a policy that hurts the economy and increases unemployment?8. The EU will not offer the UK a "special deal" featuring full access to the single market but control of UK borders because such a deal would encourage other nations to leave. Nationalist movements, and anti-EU sentiment, are on the rise across Europe.9. The EU can withdraw the UK's bank "passport" that gives UK financial services firms access to the single market. Do the Tories want to go into 2020 defending a policy that decimates The City, which (according to Morgan Stanley) pays 11% of the UK's entire tax base?10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible! Not many people know this. But the UK can formally trigger its Article 50 request and then withdraw the request before Brexit actually takes place, if the country wants to.On those assumptions, May's government is heavily incentivised to drag its feet over the Leave negotiations. It would be much easier for the Tories to be seen to be negotiating an exit, while not actually exiting, than actually leaving Europe. Especially when 2020 comes around.The new government after 2020 will face a similar choice. Unless that government is an expanded Tory majority dominated by hardcore eurosceptics, then you should expect Brexit to be pushed back even further as "crucial" trade negotiations continue ... indefinitely.

did this really need a new thread o could have just added this to the 700+ page brexit thread already made

[May90]

Whether Brexit happens or not, it doesn't matter.

I give 50 years.
After 50 years, both Euro and EU will not exist.

It is either rich country leaves one by one or via WW3.

People said that about the US too: "Give it a few years, they will collapse and ask the empire to take them back". Well, nope!

[dribbles]

Aye, you believe in democracy so much that you don't take part in it.

You are free to respect those that are happy to fuck us all over for their false sense of sovereignty, I have no respect for such people.

Seems to me Germany is the only place with a false sense of security/sovereignty.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/24/one-de...rmany-6026100/

How often does it have to happen, twice a week? Twice a day? How many innocents have to die until you admit you are wrong?

[Kallisto]

I would accept "I don't agree voting Leave was the best decision because reasons" whereas I consider "I don't agree voting Leave was the best decision, those that voted are morons" as petulant snark

Problem from about the announcement of the date of the vote until a month before the vote everyone who was in camp remain was going with the "I don't agree voting Leave was the best decision because reasons, and we have a consensus from experts in Finances, economics, science, business, etc etc etc backing us with these figures " Yet time and time again the rational argument kept being ignored and in the end we ended up with people saying "You rely too much on experts." or "I'm a mother I know best." or "People are fed up with experts." from the leave camp.

That was when in the end we in remain realised the leave camp pretty much was brain dead morons who kept screaming "Dem immigrants, dey took er jerbs." style who basically can't and shouldn't be treated as rational adults and why in the end the fact is "Those voted out are morons." came to be, because they proved it

[Deleted]

Aye, you believe in democracy so much that you don't take part in it.

You are free to respect those that are happy to fuck us all over for their false sense of sovereignty, I have no respect for such people.

Part of democracy is my choice not to vote if I feel I can't make a decision I 100% stand by, my stance was nuetrality

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Problem from about the announcement of the date of the vote until a month before the vote everyone who was in camp remain was going with the "I don't agree voting Leave was the best decision because reasons, and we have a consensus from experts in Finances, economics, science, business, etc etc etc backing us with these figures " Yet time and time again the rational argument kept being ignored and in the end we ended up with people saying "You rely too much on experts." or "I'm a mother I know best." or "People are fed up with experts." from the leave camp.

That was when in the end we in remain realised the leave camp pretty much was brain dead morons who kept screaming "Dem immigrants, dey took er jerbs." style who basically can't and shouldn't be treated as rational adults and why in the end the fact is "Those voted out are morons." came to be, because they proved it

Met every leave voter have we?

[Maconi]

Lets not pretend that the Brexit was about anything other than refugees. Sure there were some other talking points, but a major part of it hinged on them. Honestly I don't know why they don't just say they refuse the refugees, refuse to pay the penalty for not accepting refugees, and dare the EU to do something about it. Seems much more sensible than willingly walking away from the benefits the EU brings.

[Deleted]

Lets not pretend that the Brexit was about anything other than refugees. Honestly I don't know why they don't just say they refuse the refugees, refuse to pay the penalty for not accepting refugees, and dare the EU to do something about it. Seems much more sensible than willingly walking away from the benefits the EU brings.

It wasn't just refugees...

[Deleted]

It wasn't just refugees...

Lets be real, it mainly was.

[May90]

Lets not pretend that the Brexit was about anything other than refugees. Sure there were some other talking points, but a major part of it hinged on them. Honestly I don't know why they don't just say they refuse the refugees, refuse to pay the penalty for not accepting refugees, and dare the EU to do something about it. Seems much more sensible than willingly walking away from the benefits the EU brings.

Funny thing is, it doesn't even affect refugees in any way. The UK isn't in Schengen zone and doesn't have to let them in; if other EU members try to press the issue, the UK can always opt out of it, as it's always done: "We have our own border policies, get out".

Yet many people thought they were deciding between letting refugees in or not. Once again demonstrating, that perhaps referendums aren't that great of an idea! Cameron initiated the referendum, probably hoping that people would actually have an idea on what they were voting on. Oh well...

[Deleted]

Lets not pretend that the Brexit was about anything other than refugees. Sure there were some other talking points, but a major part of it hinged on them. Honestly I don't know why they don't just say they refuse the refugees, refuse to pay the penalty for not accepting refugees, and dare the EU to do something about it. Seems much more sensible than willingly walking away from the benefits the EU brings.

General consensus from the 'stupid' voters was that it was about immigration and sovereignty, not refugees. From the more informed Leave camp, it was about getting rid of EU restrictions and growing the UK as an independent, strong economy.

I don't think I heard anyone mention refugees as anything other than an offhanded comment.

[Maconi]

Funny thing is, it doesn't even affect refugees in any way. The UK isn't in Schengen zone and doesn't have to let them in; if other EU members try to press the issue, the UK can always opt out of it, as it's always done: "We have our own border policies, get out".

Yet many people thought they were deciding between letting refugees in or not. Once again demonstrating, that perhaps referendums aren't that great of an idea! Cameron initiated the referendum, probably hoping that people would actually have an idea on what they were voting on. Oh well...

There's a reason a Republic is slightly better than a pure Democracy. It's pretty common for the masses to be uninformed and easily influenced.

Although then you have a different set of issues to deal with (corruption, nepotism, etc.).

[Deleted]

The most important vote you will cast in your lifetime and you can't even be bothered to inform yourself of the issues and make an informed choice. Democracy is wasted on the likes of you.

No because I saw pros & cons on both sides, couldn't decide so opted out. Don't like? Tough shit it's my fundamental right

[Deleted]

General consensus from the 'stupid' voters was that it was about immigration and sovereignty, not refugees. From the more informed Leave camp, it was about getting rid of EU restrictions and growing the UK as an independent, strong economy.

I don't think I heard anyone mention refugees as anything other than an offhanded comment.

Anytime anyone mentions "immigration" with regards to Brexit what they actually mean is refugees.

Everyone got over the Poles in the 2000s, and the hordes of Bulgarians and Romanians that were supposed to turn up, didn't.

[Deleted]

Anytime anyone mentions "immigration" with regards to Brexit what they actually mean is refugees.

Everyone got over the Poles in the 2000s, and the hordes of Bulgarians and Romanians that were supposed to turn up, didn't.

Not necessarily. In fact, most of the complaints I've heard have been about muslims and poles. The reason I believe 'immigration' to be a retarded choice to leave is because Poles will enter this country regardless of our position in the EU, because they typically have sought-after professions. As for immigrants from Asia, they won't really be affected at all.

If a voter is mixing up immigration with refuge, then it is sad that they were allowed to vote in the first place with such uninformed opinions. I don't care about far right / far left, whatever your political standing is, but I do believe you need at least a basic grasp of what you're voting on in order to make a decision in good confidence.

[Deleted]

Well, fair enough.

You even seen something I didn't, pros to brexit.

There were pros, whether they outweighed the cons I couldn't say (im thinking long run)

[Deleted]

Not necessarily. In fact, most of the complaints I've heard have been about muslims and poles. The reason I believe 'immigration' to be a retarded choice to leave is because Poles will enter this country regardless of our position in the EU, because they typically have sought-after professions. As for immigrants from Asia, they won't really be affected at all.

If a voter is mixing up immigration with refuge, then it is sad that they were allowed to vote in the first place with such uninformed opinions. I don't care about far right / far left, whatever your political standing is, but I do believe you need at least a basic grasp of what you're voting on in order to make a decision in good confidence.

Immigration is a retarded reason to leave, but unfortunately, thats the reason we left over.

The entire debate came down to immigration, and tapped into nationalism, so you've got one side having to argue against its own people, atleast in the eyes of the folks who voted Brexit.

Because people who screamed "Project Fear" at the Remain campaign, were already leading there own scare campaign, which was just more effective.

[Repefe]

There is no way it won't happen. What UK and Germany is shooting for now is for UK to 'quit' EU on paper, but not quit it really. That way the brexit supporters will get their exit and it won't hurt UK and EU too much.

UK strategy for brexit ... still want open trade with EU and be a major player in Europe. How do you do that ? Join EU .... ok, give me something similar, but not that.

[May90]

There's a reason a Republic is slightly better than a pure Democracy. It's pretty common for the masses to be uninformed and easily influenced.

Although then you have a different set of issues to deal with (corruption, nepotism, etc.).

Yes, I feel like there is a fundamental contradiction in this. To make informed decisions, they must be done by a small circle of devoted specialists. In theory, people are supposed to control them and to not let them use their power for their own gain. In practice, however, since people are not informed, they cannot always decide objectively whether what the government is doing is good or bad. Too much power for the government - and usurpation happens; too little - and people start making horrible decisions. Maybe there is a balance somewhere, but I'm not sure it is stable: it still tends to eventually jump in one of the directions.

We just need an electronic government, with AIs making mathematically perfect decisions, and with people merely making sure that the power is always supplied. Although, who knows, we might end up with a dictatorship of a scale unknown to date.

[Kallisto]

Met every leave voter have we?

Met enough, saw enough to see there is a consensus about why they left and it was never well thought out or based on logic. It was emotional stupidity.

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Lets be real, it mainly was.

Problem was (and this was repeated time and time again) the UK was under no obligation and would not be punished for not taking any refugees. Hell we were only going to take 20k. You know how big 20k is? You'd need 4 times that amount to fill up Old Trafford.

Not only that it wasn't 20k all at once. It was 20k over a number of years and spread all over the country. Basically it was so small that 99% of Brits likely wouldn't have seen one.