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  1. #881
    I am Murloc! Anakso's Avatar
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    Didn't even realise I was quite L-3 but then again I guess we're down to few enough people that L-3 can happen quite quickly. Of the people voting on me though the only one I'm concerned about is Danner. Virothe and Grae are w/e and I could see both being scum. Danners a more interesting one though that I don't quite understand, but will wait until I'm home to do a proper review of that (just heading back from lunch atm, at work)

  2. #882
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    @Reticence. Sorry about the long wait. When the President speaks at the DNC, you gotta listen >.>

    Anyways on Graeham, Im getting a slight sketchy vibe. Not strong, but I just feel slightly off. I disagree with his justification of town lies using himself (as a defense of Kryllian). I remember that game clearly, and that was really more a lie by omission than an outright stated falsehood. That defense, instead of being questioning as well as post 542, is what gives me pause. Considering that, and his push on Anakso today, I think a better read will be had if either Kryllian or Anakso is gone. I also see your listo vote. I do find interesting the rather rapid jump on Shiro, then Marack, and now Anakso from him. I understood the reasoning for Shiro's, but also on Marack and Anakso?

    Also, on post 811, considering Danner has been one of the more vocal proponents, does this mean you still have the same feelings as 542 @Graeham ?

    @shirokitsune: D4 happened probably because I was typing out my thoughts and hitting enter. My thought process is a weird one to understand, as my graduate professors will tell you. The D2 statement came from considering Jynx as a mason due to Blood Fox's statement and other people's thinkings on what that could mean. Im a risk-reward ratio kind of gal. At that point I wasn't associating any TPR with Allowyn, while Jynx had a possible role attached to her. Thus, if I had to have a mislynch, it would be safer for it to be on someone that is less likely to be a special role as was known at the time.
    Last edited by Crissi; 2016-07-28 at 04:16 AM.

  3. #883
    Alright. And what do you think of Listo?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Anakso View Post
    Virothe and Grae are w/e and I could see both being scum.
    Virothe didn't vote for you. Listo did.

  4. #884
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    Since my last questioning of listo (791, his reponse 796), my feelings on him never actually got better even if I understood his answer to me, especially with the early jumps on shiro (which that train died), Marack, and now Anakso. I still distrust him. I have half a feeling he is Kim Jong-un based on his statements to marack and how his leader is superbly evil as heck. Also, is a (best) Korea.

  5. #885
    Quote Originally Posted by Reticence View Post
    Alright. And what do you think of Listo?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Virothe didn't vote for you. Listo did.
    Ya I just said I was fine with his train, I thought perhaps we would get something out of it even though we haven't really at this point besides seeing that Anakso doesn't pay attention to the thread.

  6. #886
    Updated reads list from post 775 to now.

    Graeham, Reticence, Xanjori remain town.

    Changed reads on:

    Danner form leaning town to uncertain.
    Listo form uncertain to leaning town.
    Crissi from uncertain to leaning town.
    Virothe from uncertain to leaning scum.
    Shiro from scum to leaning scum.
    Kyryllian from scum to uncertain.

    Anakso remains scum.


    unvote
    vote: Anakso

  7. #887
    I am Murloc! Anakso's Avatar
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    Well ill claim but don't know what good that'll do me. I'm just a VT, and my character is possibly the oddest one here, I'm an emperor penguin, president of Antartica.

  8. #888

  9. #889
    Stood in the Fire listo95's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anakso View Post
    Well ill claim but don't know what good that'll do me. I'm just a VT, and my character is possibly the oddest one here, I'm an emperor penguin, president of Antartica.
    So what you're saying is an Emperor Penguin, one of the cutest animals in the known world are wanting to help keep the UN safe?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by SatsuBL View Post
    Sounds cool.
    Lynch him
    Watch if he is scum I'd be willing to bet his role card has some mention of "you were never invited to join the UN so you will murder them all"

  10. #890
    Nope it really is a standard game there will be no such role or character.

    I expected Anakso to claim miller or JOAT, dissapointed

    - - - Updated - - -

    I mean yeah there will be VTs.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ok if there is a real doctor who thinks Anakso is town, you can claim and I will vote Kryllian.

  11. #891
    @Danner:

    I understand all too well the paranoia regarding your read on me. I think I have read you correctly, but from time to time I doubt. Which is fine; doubt is a healthy thing. Ultimately, though, I can't ignore my instinct or the evidence in front of me, and I can't ignore the list of people I distrust far more than you. So, I have chosen to trust you until there is reason to not, and there is some comfort in the idea that if I lose because of that trust being misplaced, then you deserve to win.

    On that note, I noticed something interesting when I was updating my records.

    Beginning with Marack's Train:
    Spoiler: 
    Reticence (#783),
    Dupti (#795),
    Graeham (#800),
    Listo (#801),
    Crissi (#803),
    Satsu (#821)
    Removing Dupti as confirmed town, Satsu (Jynx) as investigated by Crackleslap, and myself, we are left with Graeham, Listo and Crissi. Statistically speaking, the likelihood that any given lynch is made up of 100% town is very low, but this gets even more compelling when you look at...

    Catta's Train:
    Spoiler: 
    Cruelle (#6),
    Xanjori (#110),
    Reticence (#223),
    Dupti (#291),
    Crackleslap (#298),
    Senna (#303),
    Danner (#311),
    Crissi (#317),
    Listo (#319),
    Shirokitsune (#320),
    Jynx (#322)
    ... in which both Crissi and Listo are in prime bussing positions, and...

    Allowyn's Train:
    Spoiler: 
    Virothe (#453),
    Reticence (#533),
    Dupti (#534),
    Crissi (#535),
    Danner (#536),
    Cruelle (#538),
    Kryllian (#539),
    Graeham (#540),
    Shirokitsune (#544),
    Dethmourne (#546)
    ... in which Graeham is.

    Do I believe all three of these players are scum? It's possible, but improbable. However, one being scum is extremely likely, and two would be unsurprising.

    Of the three, I distrust Listo the most. Mostly for the survivalist streak that I’ve come to associate with him being scum. I would be willing to lynch him on these grounds, alone, but if Anakso flips scum then I believe we have even more reason to do so.

    • Listo voted Anakso as an obvious joke at the start of D1 in (#58), and continues the joke in a few posts throughout D1. But until his newfound suspicion of Anakso, he hasn't actually interacted with Anakso since that day.
    • Anakso voted Listo as an obvious joke at the start of D2 in (#381). He hasn't interacted with Listo since that post, either.

    When I say "they haven't interacted", I don't mean that they haven't pressured each other or only mentioned each other in passing. I mean they literally have not spoken to or about each other in this thread at all between Anakso’s post at (#381) and Listo’s post at (#861). I had a nagging voice about the way they were interacting from the start, but I didn't realize how little there was between them until I actively looked.

    As such, my current theory is that Anakso and Listo are on the same team. and probably tormenting their allies by flooding the QT with K-Pop references.

  12. #892
    Stood in the Fire listo95's Avatar
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    Rey you forgot 1 major thing in your "if Ana is scum Listo most likely is also" thing. I'm 9/10 times left alive as town because I ALMOST never have a good record when I'm town. How many times am I left alive as lynch bait for end game because I can't defend myself without resorting to wifiom? How often do I die because I'm a threat?

  13. #893
    Quote Originally Posted by Reticence View Post
    For the purposes of Blood Fox, I am treating him as third party since it can't be proven that he was recruited. One could argue that him flipping red and with the same win condition as the rest of the mafia suggests he may have been recruited, but it's certainly not proof, so I'd hate to base any theories on it.

    My curiosity has more to do with whether or not you think Deth would have supported a teammate so publicly, even in a non-vote-related spat, though I suppose you answered this to a degree already.
    I'm just not sure I really can count this as a support. Sure, it was a support on some level, but the motive seems missing, and without the motive there is no gain in such play being nefarious scum play. Establishing a state that Blood Fox tends to duck away from games, I do not really see as controversial. The insults were controversial (and dickish), but I have a hard time reading that as scummery, because insults do not add much to any debate beyond the intimidation effect. But everyone knows that Blood fox won't be intimidated that easily.
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  14. #894
    I am Murloc! Anakso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by listo95 View Post
    So what you're saying is an Emperor Penguin, one of the cutest animals in the known world are wanting to help keep the UN safe?
    Precisely. I have to curl my little toesies up when it's cold sometimes so my feet don't freeze, such a creature could never be scum.

  15. #895
    Quote Originally Posted by Kryllian View Post
    As I keep telling you Danner...I wasn't playing a long game. I was thinking "don't get lynched and screw it up for town." I don't have much experience playing town let alone a TPR. I wasn't thinking about who is more important between a cop or a doc. I was thinking that the TPR roles are probably limited. The roleblocker is already dead, the cop is outed, and the doc is on the block.

    Yes. Looking back in hindsight I probably should have taken a deep breath and thought through multiple scenarios but I was panicked that I was going to screw up big time and have people saying "you suck as town because you shouldn't have outed yourself so soon, how could you be so stupid?" Which, ironically, is exactly what you are basically saying to me.
    First paragraph: Again that statement doesn't add up to facts. Your first is a long game play.

    Your second paragraph is the one of the answers I was hoping for though. I do see some panic in your play (that first claim certainly wasn't peer-reviewed), and what I am looking for is your state of mind at the time of your claims. Regardless of your alignment, this paragraph contains truths as far as I see it. I wish you had given me this answer first, back when I first answered. I'm however worried I had to lead you to this answer, and that makes it now less valuable.

    As for TPRs outing themselves on day 2, it happens every time. Case in point, the cop is dead by N3. Business as usual for MMO-Champion.
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  16. #896
    I am Murloc! Anakso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reticence View Post
    Alright. And what do you think of Listo?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Virothe didn't vote for you. Listo did.
    And damn just saw this, I got my ducks mixed up apparently.

  17. #897
    Quote Originally Posted by Anakso View Post
    Didn't even realise I was quite L-3 but then again I guess we're down to few enough people that L-3 can happen quite quickly. Of the people voting on me though the only one I'm concerned about is Danner. Virothe and Grae are w/e and I could see both being scum. Danners a more interesting one though that I don't quite understand, but will wait until I'm home to do a proper review of that (just heading back from lunch atm, at work)
    Looking forward to it!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Anakso View Post
    Well ill claim but don't know what good that'll do me. I'm just a VT, and my character is possibly the oddest one here, I'm an emperor penguin, president of Antartica.
    I do believe this character claim. It is hilarious by the way.
    Not convinced of allegiance - but you could change that still.
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  18. #898
    Stood in the Fire listo95's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    I do believe this character claim. It is hilarious by the way.
    Not convinced of allegiance - but you could change that still.
    I'm more or less on the same page... Sadly now that more or less makes 2 possible leaders who busted the theory I really wanted to be true...

  19. #899
    Quote Originally Posted by Reticence View Post
    Stuff in #891
    I believe we have an understanding regarding reads on each other.
    That said, if it's down to me, you and Satsu, you're going down.

    --

    We had 21 players this game. The standard rule of 1/3 suggests there are ~7 scum. 4 scum are dead (Catta, Allowyn, Blood Fox, Dethmourne), and one town obstruction (Cruelle) to boot. If we count Blood Fox and Cruelle as a full scum together, we should have about 3 scum remaining. Possibly less due to that jester role, possibly more due to the vigilante. But 3 seems like a decent estimate.

    Anakso
    Crissi
    Danner - I know my own alignment
    Graeham
    Kryllian
    listo95
    Reticence
    SatsuBL (replaced JynxieJ) - Investigated town by Crackleslap
    shirokitsune
    Virothe
    Xanjori
    Out of these, in my world I must eliminate SatsuBL and myself right off the bat from the scum pool, I know my alignment, and Satsu was investigated by Crackleslap. So we get blue colors. It's my list, I'm allowed. If you disagree, make your own list.

    Personally, I want to trust Ret, no major rationale behind it other than a desire. I strongly believe Virothe is town after today's vote analysis. I believe Shiro and Xanjori are town as well, although those are lesser reads. You all get light blue colors.

    Now, Kryllian. That's where things get difficult. He's technically an uncountered doc claim, so that counts for something, but I do think he's a primary candidate for scummery. Let's give him yellow. I do not think we have an SK this game, so the color should be available!

    I also do not believe Kryllian is scum if Anakso is scum, though this is not a strong read. I do however feel Anakso is a good candidate for scum, and the vote analysis is there to back up that read. So my vote on Anakso is an attempt to work around my distrust of Kryllian, and get a scum. If it pays off, and I'm not giving it a 100% confidence, it should be enough to not make me want to lynch Kryllian until much later in the game. Anakso gets an orange color. Red is reserved for confirmed scum.

    Graeham I flagged as scum on day 1. Still stand by that read, though the overall read has been tempered by a few things he said since then which weren't all terrible. Yellow color, should probably do a full vote trail analysis.

    Listo is, as always impossible to read, so he gets a black color. I tried making a vote trail analysis of him yesterday, but frankly I have problems making any coherent sense of it. Possibly I was just exhausted after the ones I did. That leaves Crissi as the last wildcard. I should probably do a vote trail analysis on Crissi after work today, because I'm not at all sure how to read Crissi at the moment. However, there aren't many places for scum to hide left. So I expect at least one of these two are scum, likely both if Graeham is actually town.

    --

    With that in mind, the interesting stuff sounds pretty spot on.

    I imagine 3 out of [Anakso, Crissi, Graeham, Kryllian, Listo] being scum. That's a pretty decent hitrate for a random lynch in that pool. Of course, I could be wrong about some of the cyan reads, but I'd rather start there.
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  20. #900
    Quote Originally Posted by listo95 View Post
    Shiro if you believe I am at best a 3rd party would you believe me to be a survivor or a second traitor around? If it's neither of those you need to assume I'm either town or mafia/sk (since we can't verify that the 2nd kill is a sk or vigi yet). I'm not afraid of claiming but Ana had a chance to claim when he posted at L-3 and instead decided to say we shouldn't be convinced to leave Kryllian alone and try to lynch a townie.
    Hmm. I may have a misunderstanding on game terms then. Serial Killers and Vigilantes perform the same type of actions, but are not necessarily going to be found on certain teams? Is it then that a Vig is town aligned while a SK is independant?

    If it's Vig is town aligned and SK independant. I would probably stick you as 3rd Party/SK. I just don't read you strong enough as town to place you as Town aligned - vigilante.


    I wonder... If there exists a Mafia Traitor which hides as a townie could there also be a corresponding equivalent of Undercover Cop which hides as mafia but is town aligned? Does such a role exist?

    ----
    Also... emperor penguin... really? While it is a cutesy and cuddly claim, from what I can surmise all the people involved in the game (other than the janitor) have been rolecard members of actual UN members. Even with the mods poking some fun at their own leaders I don't believe this to be a valid claim. Unless I'm horribly missing a joke, which given the amount of wakeful hours I'm at is entirely plausible.

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