Mafia #72: Heads of State. Game Thread

[Virothe]

@shirokitsune I do have a question on your reads. For Virothe, would that be the sole reason? Because it strikes me that Virothe is enough of a vet to not grudge kill if he is the SK. I think that would put too much attention on himself the next day.

And just because Shiro declares I'm still alive as a reason to believe he's town doesn't mean anything because it could just be a ploy. Really you can run logic loops around in circles with the current situation. We're really not going to get much for answers until we stop expositing hypothesis and act on something in order to garner information.

[Reticence]

So, @Graeham, did you find any of that evidence I asked you for?

[Graeham]

So, @Graeham, did you find any of that evidence I asked you for?

Not really. Hence my 'stalemate' comment in the previous post. It's much the same with the comments regarding the doubts surrounding my own alignment. There's no real evidence or 'slips' - just a convenient list of the same people covering each other's backs also finding me 'suspicious'. So like I said I'm perfectly content to soak today's lynch if that's what it takes to convince people to dig around more.

[Reticence]

Not really. Hence my 'stalemate' comment in the previous post. It's much the same with the comments regarding the doubts surrounding my own alignment. There's no real evidence or 'slips'

Evidence has been given.

convenient list of the same people covering each other's backs also finding me 'suspicious'.

I think there are really only two players who have a strong trust for each other, and there are actual reasons for that.

[Danner]

I started doing a vote investigation on Graeham yesterday. Then I fell asleep because it got ridiculously late. Gonna need to finish it - but preliminary I'm getting a better "vibe" from Graeham after what I've gone through - but he's also done some stuff I can't quite defend. More in the actual analysis later, but if I need to make an actual call so far, I'd say town. Not a strong read, but town.

Could you clarify? Are you suggesting they thought Satsu was a vigilante?

I theorise the mafia should want to hit the vig more than anything, and thus hitting semi-randomly amongst the possibilities is a good explanation. Possibly that choice was modded towards Satsu due to the added bonus of him being investigated town. This is however speculation, but I can't see Satsu being a top priority target right now unless something is up.

I'm pointing it out because I feel something is indeed up. I believe I would have been a much better kill than Satsu. I won't reveal who I believe to be the vigilante, but that too wold have been a much better hit if the goal was to kill the vig.

Basically: The kill on dupti matched that profile more than the kill on Satsu.

So, what could be up?
My pet favourite theory is that you and Kryllian are the last two scum. Since I'm kinda defending you both, there is no need to kill me. Also, by killing me you have an alibi for yourself. You basically want me alive to shift attention of yourself.

There are reasons why I shouldn't believe the pet theory. As you say, your vote record is pretty good. I do not think it is as good as you think it is - primarily, it's good due to you following Dupti's read on Allowyn. But nonetheless that vote was a very strong application to the town cool kids club. Yours is better than mine though. If Listo is scum, and I am certainly not ruling out that theory, your vote record is so much town that it's pointless to even have secret worries about you being scum. But yeah, I do have secret worries. We discussed those yesterday.

My second favourite theory is that someone wants me to believe the pet theory is what is going on. In essence, WIFOM. I don't believe in WIFOM. But the fact that satsu ends up dead after the only real mention of him last gameday being in my context of trusting him unconditionally... yeah. It's hard to not draw a line.

(To those who have no idea what WIFOM is, here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM )

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" If Listo is scum, and I am certainly not ruling out that theory, your vote record is so much town that it's pointless to even have secret worries about you being scum."

That's one word too much in there invalidating the meaning. Struck

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No nevermind. It was right in the first place. I need my morning coffee. And I don't even drink coffee.

[shirokitsune]

@shirokitsune I do have a question on your reads. For Virothe, would that be the sole reason? Because it strikes me that Virothe is enough of a vet to not grudge kill if he is the SK. I think that would put too much attention on himself the next day.

Well no it wouldn't be the sole reason. There would be a nigh-uncontrollable urge to want to see what Virothe's alignment is now rather than at a nebulous time later so as to see if I've read them right.. I've a terrible curiosity for that. It's why I don't read murder mysteries, the temptation to peek at the end of the book to see if my guess is right would ruin it totally.

As for being enough of a vet to not grudge kill? Well that could be WIFOM'd ad nauseaum. No one would think they'd do it because they're a vet so therefore they could do it and get away it because everyone would think no vet would do it etc (Insert cackling laughter of the Sicilian here). Also I'm pretty certain I've made enough waves and enemies that no one would be exactly sure who to blame anyway.

And just because Shiro declares I'm still alive as a reason to believe he's town doesn't mean anything because it could just be a ploy. Really you can run logic loops around in circles with the current situation. We're really not going to get much for answers until we stop expositing hypothesis and act on something in order to garner information.

Perhaps, but keep in mind the same defense you're poking a hole in, is the same defense I'm using to think of you in a more townlike fashion.

Listo, to me, feels a bit too convenient as a target for today. I suspect that - much like myself - he has been kept alive deliberately with the intention of lynching him at a time when the stakes are heading towards their highest point.

Why do they feel too convenient? I'm not sure I understand your reasoning; if anything it would feel more like Listo and yourself have been avoiding scrutiny and trying not to be the center of attention.

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I think also my reasoning on Kryllian is more of a master-mind game anyway. Partially theorized before. Kryllian gets cornered, makes bad claim, as the thread pounces on it and the claim gets torn apart, kryllian tries a new claim of doc, thread buys it due to no counterclaim; therefore making Kryllian now safe as 'doctor' until either the true doctor counterclaims or is otherwise revealed. Thus allowing Kryllian to hide his role as either scum or SK.


Obvious hole in this theory is that Kryllian should be dead at this point due to scum wanting to kill the doctor unless they perceive Kryllian as zero value.

However this leads me to 3 (okay technically 4) possible outcomes.
1 - Kryllian is scum, and Kryllian's team helped Kryllian concoct a more believable counter-claim as doc, and then 'fell' for the claim so as to appear more 'townie'.
2a - Kryllian is SK, and Kryllian has been playing the most devilishly clever game of bluff, feint, and murder. If this is the case remind me NOT to play poker with Kryllian.
2b - Slightly more troublesome version of 2a, but slightly less Machiavellian, it's not 1 SK, but a 2 person team working as a spotter/killer combo.
3 - Kryllian really is town, really is the doctor, and just seriously malfed their claim in a panic.

Thing is... the only one that makes game sense when I think about it is the first outcome. I just can't see how scum would leave a declared doctor alive now that I think about it. I believe it was mentioned earlier as well, but can't remember exactly by whom at this time, that the proper game ploy would have been to keep using NK attempts on the 'doctor' until it went through, especially after the cop died.

So either the Mafia is inept and hasn't tried to kill the claimed doctor, or they've been trying to locate and kill the real doctor while their buddy hides under cover of a claim...

----

Last disconcerting theory: The SK/Vig? Kill and the Mafia Kill aren't 100% success rate. But rather one has an increased success rate if the other fails with neither side knowing about a fail rate. So there would be a chance both could succeed in a single night, but normally only one would succeed. This would tell the SK/Vig when a Mafia kill happens because it may not match their target, and would tell the Mafia that there's a Sk/Vig because a kill would happen that may not match their target. But town would be hard pressed to tell unless, and until, 2 kills happen in the same night.

-----

Ugh... Pessimistic cylical circular logic whirlpools... At this rate I'll discover a conspiracy behind every conspiracy... This post may have been unhelpful.

[Xanjori]

Anakso didn't really engage me directly either - at least until yesterday. One thing I will say about Anakso, though, is that Anakso can be very cunning and devious - as evidenced by winning as a serial killer a while back. To me that is one of the most impressive feats in these games. So I'm left scratching my head in confusion as to why Reticence, Danner and Crissi in particular are still alive.

Why are you so sure that Crissi seems town? Right now of the players left alive I'd put her and Listo as the two I would be happiest voting on today. Have I missed something with Crissi that is making people truly believe she is town?

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I feel people are trying way too hard, keep things simple.

Imo if Kryll is the doctor (I'm not saying 100% he is, but I've not seen much evidence to the contrary) he has also been one player that has recieved a high amount of suspicion and looked very possibly like someone that could be lynched. Therefore Mafia have left him alive due to them feeling that he could bite the dust.

Now I don't know if the (possible) SK has some NK immunity, or a BPV, and therefore Mafia have tried a kill on someone they think could be the SK and failed, which partially explains the strange kill pattern we've seen so far, as well as Anakso's continued pressure of Kryllian, or if Mafia are just lining up kills poorly/getting caught out by some master doctoring.

As stated above, I'm most happy with Listo or Crissi today. If someone can come up with good reasons to pressure others (Reticence, Shiro) then I'd also be happy to review those cases. I'm still not convinced by Shiro, I feel he did fail earlier in the game with his votes and pressure, and now he want's to pressure Kryll again. It's a bit odd imo.

[Graeham]

Why do they feel too convenient? I'm not sure I understand your reasoning; if anything it would feel more like Listo and yourself have been avoiding scrutiny and trying not to be the center of attention.

Some people keep saying that about me but I honestly feel like I've been far from subtle during this game. I clashed with Danner very early on. I've blurted out my thoughts and put forward my theories throughout the game - which have, in fact, been repeatedly responded to by various players. So in all fairness I wouldn't put my contribution as being on the same level as Listo. Who, yes, has been fairly quiet and perhaps even evasive. I still stand by the idea that Listo feels like too convenient a target though. It's a strong gut feel.

One thing I will say is that out of everybody I listed in my previous post Danner feels the most 'authentic' to me - especially after today's posts. As odd that may sound. He actually put a vote on me back when we clashed and seemed pretty committed to seeing me lynched. The other players who have expressed doubt about me, however, haven't gone that far - which is why I am super paranoid about me being kept alive for a convenient mislynch when the stakes are super high.

I'll post more later today since I have to go out fairly soon.

[Reticence]

I started doing a vote investigation on Graeham yesterday. Then I fell asleep because it got ridiculously late. Gonna need to finish it - but preliminary I'm getting a better "vibe" from Graeham after what I've gone through - but he's also done some stuff I can't quite defend. More in the actual analysis later, but if I need to make an actual call so far, I'd say town. Not a strong read, but town.

That's interesting. I considered him town earlier this game, but the past couple days he's switched to the noncommittal behavior that I associate with him being scum. He throws out a theory but doesn't vote on it. I ask him to go find evidence to balance out his paranoia, and he backs off. Then he stops talking to me and starts talking about me to other people.

There are reasons why I shouldn't believe the pet theory. As you say, your vote record is pretty good. I do not think it is as good as you think it is - primarily, it's good due to you following Dupti's read on Allowyn.

Pet theory or not, I feel that I have to address this. And part of this is for @Graeham, too, because if he is actually town then he needs to stop... whatever he's doing.

Firstly, while I'm not saying that it was intentional, I think that is a gross oversimplification of the actual events of that day.

Spoiler: 

(#503) - I pull Allowyn into the conversation by asking for Dupti's read.
(#514) - Dupti replies.
(#518) - I state that those thoughts echo my own.
(#519) - Dupti and I, at this point, both would prefer to lynch Shiro, but are entertaining Allowyn.
(#525/#526) - Kryllian and Listo vote Shiro.
(#528) - I ask Dupti about his thoughts on Kryllian and Listo.
(#532) - Dupti replies and says he'd rather vote for Allowyn, now.
(#533) - I agree and vote Allowyn.

Even if you want to temper my reads with the fact that I presented them as an agreement with someone else rather than on their own, I don't think it's unreasonable to infer that I was already suspicious of Allowyn and was trying to present her as an alternative. I also don't think it's unreasonable to infer by my question in (#528) that I didn't like Kryllian or Listo at the time and that I found the Shiro train distasteful after they joined it, which supports my agreement in (#533). As such, while there was certainly some element of "following" Dupti, I think I deserve more credit than that.

Secondly, I would argue that the primary reason for me to be town is not the vote on Allowyn, but the vote on Catta. Now, that's not to say that I knew Catta was scum; I can't possibly take credit for that, as it was D1 and nobody could claim to know that. But look at the actual chain of events:

Spoiler: 

(#223) - Despite pushing Crackleslap for his vote on Dupti, I vote Catta.
(#278) - Dupti asks me to explain my vote on Catta.
(#284) - I explain it as stirring the pot (trying to generate information on D1), but provide a slight read on Catta. I also give reasons for suggesting that Crackleslap is scum.
(#286) - I state for Dupti that I'd be willing to vote Crackle, but that I want to use D1 to lynch someone who isn't contributing to ensure the game stays active; Catta qualifies. I also call out a bunch of people to do things, including you.
(#291) - Dupti says it bothers him that my vote isn't on Crackleslap, since he is my strongest case, but also states that he really likes what I said to Listo in (#286), so he joins me on Catta.
(#297) - I completely agree with Dupti about Crackleslap being my strongest case, but reiterate that I both want to use D1 to trim low-activity players and that my Crackleslap case throws some suspicion on Catta, even if it's circumstantial without a Crackle flip. I say I will push Crackleslap later. (Spoiler: I do that)
(#311) - I missed this the first time around , but you voiced some hesitation with the Catta train, but admit that it would be a good read of the three at the head of that train, which includes me.

Recap: I had a case on the town player who later turned out to be the cop, and passed on it in favor of convincing people to join me on Catta, who later turned out to be the Godfather. Again, I am not taking credit for knowing/suspecting either of those things in advance, as I clearly couldn't. But while I can't take credit for that, I can take credit for being instrumental in lynching scum on D1, even if it wasn't completely intentional. This plus the Allowyn train is why my vote record makes it incredibly unlikely for me to be mafia, and is undoubtedly why Dupti trusted me as much as he did before he died.

Again, normally I don't care that much what people think of me and my record. Quite frankly, though, the fact that Graeham has played this entire day as his dodgy noncommittal scum self and you're now reading him as town is making me wary as hell. This reminds me somewhat of the West Wing game, where Dendrek kept undermining his own ability to trust me and my claim, even though that trust was pretty much the town's only shot at winning at that point.

One thing I will say is that out of everybody I listed in my previous post Danner feels the most 'authentic' to me - especially after today's posts. As odd that may sound. He actually put a vote on me back when we clashed and seemed pretty committed to seeing me lynched. The other players who have expressed doubt about me, however, haven't gone that far - which is why I am super paranoid about me being kept alive for a convenient mislynch when the stakes are super high.

As I said, my suspicions of you are not as strong as my suspicions on other players.

And you have no room to talk about not supporting doubts with votes. Since your feud with Danner early-game you have yet to place a vote on any of the players that you've expressed concern about, which is honestly half of my problem with the concern in the first place. You're just throwing it out there to see if it catches on, instead of committing yourself to it and pushing for it.

As for being a "convenient mislynch", I'd frankly rather you just get night-killed, if you're still up for the whole self-sacrifice gig. If that second kill is from a vigilante then I'm sure they won't mind.

[Graeham]

You seem to be ignoring the simple fact that I outright admitted that we're at a stalemate, Reticence. If I were scum then that would mean that my team has pretty much been decimated. In such a circumstance I have absolutely nothing to gain from throwing myself out there and coming across as 'scummy' when there's a genuine risk that I'd be lynched. Anakso's team is pretty obviously either wiped out completely or barely hanging on at this point. There's a chance that I could be a serial killer, of course, but then the same logic applies - if I desired a win then I'd embrace subtlety rather than whatever it is that you think I am doing.

[Xanjori]

Vote: Crissi

Cos today is quiet. I've been reading back through Crissi and Shiro (as they're the two I felt were most likely to be scum) and Crissi has been busy and ill that's for sure, but she's also contributed and clearly paying good attention where she can. One thing that she has seemed keen to peddle is that "Kryllian will either get NK'd tonight or is scum and we can lynch tomorrow" that Anakso seemed to go with. Now sure Anakso coulda pushed it a bit just because he saw a townie (or at least someone not on his team) pushing it too, but I still feel it's probably the best lead right now.

As for Shiro, for now I'm going to go with moving him down the suspicious list. He pointed some early pressure at Blood Fox and while I still have my doubts over the way he played the whole Kryllian/Cruelle lynches I'll give him a pass for now.

[Virothe]

Ugh... Pessimistic cylical circular logic whirlpools... At this rate I'll discover a conspiracy behind every conspiracy... This post may have been unhelpful.

Told ya, kinda pointless atm to so that.

My issue is though Shiro you seem to be trying to head off any discussion of why you could be the SK or why you could be mafia before they come to a head. That bugs me since you've also been attempting to spread minor seeds of descent against some od the more trusted townies as well.

And now were back to focusing on Kryll scums favorite target. I'm begining to wonder what could cause this because everyone whose pitches Kryll as a lynch has done so with a pretty good amount of certainty that she wasnt going to pop up Doc. But there's a lot more evidence to support the existense of a Doc than not at this point and we're getting to the point where its a bit rediculous to not counterclaim if you were.

So it makes me have to wonder, if Shiro isnt the Doc what is he? Because there ia no point to pushing Kryll again today unless you have access to knowledge we dont.

[Reticence]

You seem to be ignoring the simple fact that I outright admitted that we're at a stalemate, Reticence.

I didn't ignore it, I just don't understand. If town has reached a stalemate with scum after a strong start and only two mislynches then I have to seriously question the scum ratio of the game.

Or is we a reference to you and me?

If I were scum then that would mean that my team has pretty much been decimated. In such a circumstance I have absolutely nothing to gain from throwing myself out there and coming across as 'scummy' when there's a genuine risk that I'd be lynched.

You'll forgive me if I ignore most of this as WIFOM.

There's a chance that I could be a serial killer, of course, but then the same logic applies - if I desired a win then I'd embrace subtlety rather than whatever it is that you think I am doing.

That's just it; I don't know what you're doing. All I know is that you've been quietly floating reasons to distrust the more vocal scum-hunting players since D2, and every time I ask you for something more concrete than vague paranoia, you back off. You also have yet to vote on any of the players you have deemed a concern, which gives me doubts about your willingness to go out on a limb for that suspicion. And, every time I offer evidence for why your distrust of me is unfounded, you don't even address it.

It doesn't make sense for me to be mafia. It makes very little sense for Danner to be mafia (unless you think the Anakso train was a giant front to propel the rest of his team onto people's trust lists, but you voted rather early on that train, so I'm not sure how you feel about that). It's absolute insanity to think that we're both mafia, as that would mean that we've basically sold out half of our team over the course of the game to have a very weak (however trusted) endgame position.

If you want to make the case for one or both of us being third-party, then that's valid; I've already admitted that as a possibility. But you haven't made that distinction or suggested why that means we shouldn't lynch players we believe to be mafia. You just call us both suspicious, don't address the evidence in our favor and don't bring anything new to the table.

Now, Crissi I understand, but that's also because I've already brought up a case against her. If you have more to add to that case, I am ready and willing to hear it. But what I'd really like from you is a solid case against Xanjori, because I've had him wavering around neutral depending on the day.

Basically, Graeham, what I'm asking of you is this: if you're town, stop with the unsupported theories. Find me reasons to agree with you that aren't fear. I've been willing to listen all game, and you have yet to deliver.

[Danner]

Sorry for being slow, everyone.

I've had a monumental headache all day, and probably slept way too little. I'll try to get through the vote analysis of Graeham before the mid-day marker. If not, i
l'll just post what I have. Today is clearly not the right day for scumhunting - I hope to be more present tomorrow (RL time).

Overall feeling is anyway that we need to cut down on the players in my suspicion pool. If that happens through lynches, vig kills or deep investigations giving a decent town or scum read - that is somewhat secondary. Though the latter option is clearly better, the main thing is to reduce the number of suspects.
@Reticence: I will read through your post in depth when my head feels a bit better. Right now I feel like sleeping.

[Xanjori]

@Crissi

Can you confirm you're alive and didn't take a hot air balloon trip today?

[Crissi]

@Crissi

Can you confirm you're alive and didn't take a hot air balloon trip today?

I'm alive. I'll better respond to your other post later tonight (on phone currently) but I figure since 16 people just died in that balloon crash I should say I'm fine xD

[Xanjori]

I'm alive. I'll better respond to your other post later tonight (on phone currently) but I figure since 16 people just died in that balloon crash I should say I'm fine xD

Alrighty, good to hear. :P

[shirokitsune]

Told ya, kinda pointless atm to so that.

My issue is though Shiro you seem to be trying to head off any discussion of why you could be the SK or why you could be mafia before they come to a head. That bugs me since you've also been attempting to spread minor seeds of descent against some od the more trusted townies as well.

And now were back to focusing on Kryll scums favorite target. I'm begining to wonder what could cause this because everyone whose pitches Kryll as a lynch has done so with a pretty good amount of certainty that she wasnt going to pop up Doc. But there's a lot more evidence to support the existense of a Doc than not at this point and we're getting to the point where its a bit rediculous to not counterclaim if you were.

So it makes me have to wonder, if Shiro isnt the Doc what is he? Because there ia no point to pushing Kryll again today unless you have access to knowledge we dont.

If I'm not the Doc, what am I?. VT. Plain old nothing special VT. Which I've said multiple times before. And I'm not doubting the existence of a Doctor, on the contrary I'm pretty sure there is one. I'm just not thinking that Kryllian is the doctor.

I thought I pretty well explained my reasonings on Kryllian. Basically it comes down to either Kryllian is masterfully playing a doctor and actually blocking a kill nearly every single night, Kryllian is the luckiest bloke alive and randomly guessing a correct kill target nearly every single night, or there's an actual doctor that isn't Kryllian that is correctly choosing and protecting kill targets.

Kryllian has already said they were having issues with figuring out who to protect, so that kind of rules out #1. #2 only becomes more probable as fewer players remain because the pool of viable targets also shrinks. #3 is the one I think is correct and I have a feeling I know who the actual person is.

Perhaps I AM reading more into this than there really is, but others keep saying they have issues with Kryllian too.

---

I can get behind a Listo vote. I'm not so certain about Graeham I'll join it if it's the majority come day's end but I don't want to assist with it attaining majority before then unless Graeham does something that strikes me as super scummy. Virothe I am apparently alone in wanting to vote on.

I still feel that Crissi, Danner and Reti are town.

And hmm Xanjori... why is it everytime I'm jotting down a trust/feels list I only remember you right before I post... With some of the prior statements from yesterday I think I want to file you under distrust as a result.

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@Xanjori, hmm everytime I reread your postings my opinion of you changes. So I'm confused by this:

Vote: Crissi

Cos today is quiet. I've been reading back through Crissi and Shiro (as they're the two I felt were most likely to be scum) and Crissi has been busy and ill that's for sure, but she's also contributed and clearly paying good attention where she can. One thing that she has seemed keen to peddle is that "Kryllian will either get NK'd tonight or is scum and we can lynch tomorrow" that Anakso seemed to go with. Now sure Anakso coulda pushed it a bit just because he saw a townie (or at least someone not on his team) pushing it too, but I still feel it's probably the best lead right now.

As for Shiro, for now I'm going to go with moving him down the suspicious list. He pointed some early pressure at Blood Fox and while I still have my doubts over the way he played the whole Kryllian/Cruelle lynches I'll give him a pass for now.

Crissi's contributed and paying good attention, which is one of the reasons I've been thinking they're town, but you then vote them. The statement you quote could also be seen as following some of the logic I have for Kryllian too.

Xanjori, @Crissi, @Danner, @Reticence. What's your take on this regarding Kryllian then? Is it actually making sense for a scum team to continue to apparently ignore a claimed doctor?

[Xanjori]

Crissi's contributed and paying good attention, which is one of the reasons I've been thinking they're town, but you then vote them. The statement you quote could also be seen as following some of the logic I have for Kryllian too.

By saying this you seem to be suggesting that scum don't pay attention to what's going on. The point is that Crissi is paying attention but not really making much effort to sway town in certain directions, other than Kryllian.

[Deleted]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of Portugal was growing tired of these pointless debates. Back and forth they argued, not satisfied that the insidious element of the UN had been eradicated. Since very few people turned up for this day of debate, Marcelo decided to return home for the month long celebrations of Porutgal winning the European Championships

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa - President of Portugal (an NPC) - has abadoned the UN on Day 5

Listo - Reticence(#973),
Kryllian - Shirokitsun(#977)
Crissi - Xanjori(#991)