Mafia #72: Heads of State. Game Thread

[listo95]

So I'm pretty sure I'm lynched and I'm at work for the next 4 hours. I honestly believe Crissi is the scum your looking for not me.

[Reticence]

When I said I read Graeham as neutral I honestly meant that. Never voted Catta, a possible bussing spot on Allo, 4th on Cruelle (Ana and deth both voted 11 before and 20 after him), 3rd on Marack (I think his reasoning here is justified but might not have been from a town PoV), and he was 3rd on Ana (due to yesterday he was showed distrust of Ana). I literally can not tell with him, I get the feel he is town or scum on a day to day basis.

Thank you. Again, I like what I see here, much more than the earlier rage.

Also Ret. You honestly don't know me if you expect me to put many posts in the game, like Danner said I'm more of a person who tries to see what occurs and then come in.

Like I said, I don't need a lot from you, I just need enough to know your thought processes and where you stand. I've gotten more out of you today than I have all game, and I don't dislike a lot of what I'm reading.

On the Ana front. Why would I need to speak to him about kpop here when I literally have a chat with him and the other kpop people? If its ever here its usually out of jest and because someone wanted to know something. I'm sure we both understand you guys don't want to see kpop unless its required.

I'm not saying you need to talk to him here. I'm just saying that you have (historically), and I couldn't help but find it odd that you weren't.

It made me think that the two of you were instead talking in a QT.

I stand by my earlier statement that Listo feels like too much of an 'easy target'. To explain it a bit better I can't shake the feeling that an experienced player would know exactly what buttons to press in order to get this sort of reaction out of Listo. Then they can sit back, claim Listo isn't being 'constructive or helpful' and use that to reinforce their reasoning for a lynch.

"An experienced player"? Name names; or, better yet, vote.

Seriously, Graeham. Grow a spine.

I honestly believe Crissi is the scum your looking for not me.

@Danner: I don't like furthering the precedent that Listo can avoid being lynched if he rages and pulls the victim card like he did today, but I do have my doubts about going through with this now that he's provided a cogent response. Perhaps this is what Dupti saw earlier when he said he liked Listo's response to his scrutiny? We don't have a lot of time left, though. I could see a case being made for pushing this lynch through just to confirm his allegiance and modifying our reads based on that, but there's a fair bit of reason to believe that we're barking up the wrong tree, here.

Perhaps most obnoxious for me is that Graeham is being as subtle as a freight train about how he expects this lynch to go, and I can't help but wonder if he's staying away from it because he expects to get some town-cred for voicing opposition against it. That in itself would not be a problem, but the way he's going about it and the way he's voiced his concerns for the past two days feels manipulative as hell.

As for Crissi... she strikes me as a bit of a follower. I don't know if I can hold that against her due to her newness, but it is peculiar. The biggest thing I have against her aside from that is the Marack train.

(For both Danner and @listo95): What's troubling is that I don't think a case can be made for Kryllian being scum without a counterclaim, but if both he and Listo are town then the circumstances of D2 (the swap to Allowyn) were complete coincidence. This reopens the case against Shiro, unless I'm forgetting something rather pertinent. However, Shiro has already voiced suspicion of Crissi. What are your thoughts on that?

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Actually, @Graeham, can you address that last part as well? I would also like you to state for the record who you would like to lynch if we don't lynch Listo today.

If it wasn't clear, I don't consider anything that doesn't involve a player name a valid answer to that question.

[Crissi]

I know the Marack thing doesn't look good, but considering I have no idea who is who I thought it was best thing at the time, especially with my tendency to fall asleep and then sleep through the day end. Managed to wake myself up this time. The only other vote that I would have made based on my own feelings was Kryllian. I still stand behind my reasoning at the time. Also, yeah once I get my feet more firmly planted on the ground I'll likely be less followerish.

Anyways I doubt much will come from me, other than being el presidente de Mexico. Although I will be very annoyed if throwing a temper tantrum gets one a pass. If that's how games go, I don't have time for that.

[Kryllian]

Sorry I haven't been around this game day. I just got home after nearly 48 hours away so I'll try to catch up before deadline.

[Virothe]

Glad I decided to unvote too, seems like we're getting something out of the last bit of this day.

That said we have about 2.5 hours left till day end.

[Danner]

@Reticence:

I have doubts about listo. He could be scum, he could be town, and I have absolutely no idea which it is. There are signals pointing either way.
That said, if I did a vote investigation of him, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the result was that I would end up leaning slightly town.

If I am to do a subjective summary, Listo has, for better or worse, been himself this game. What I think is an addition is that hint of "stop lynching me" attitude (and one I had as well, so I can't say that's a scumsign). I am comparing the attitude of this game with the game where I was trying to get him lynched (pony game), and I'd say he's not quite as upfront this time around. But again, that's subjective. I just can't get any hard info on him. I believe however, that he really is trying. Listo style. I just do not quite see to what. In retrospect I really wish I had done that vote trail analysis.

Ultimately, my shortlist of scum right now is listo, crissi and that's it. Everyone else is in my leaning town bin, to various degrees. Even Kryllian, who I still can't quite get over, but he remains uncountered and Anakso was trying to lynch him.

The only three players I haven't actually looked at in extreme detail are you, crissi and listo. I am not at all sure where those scum should hide, if not behind Listo and Crissi. Possibly some of my reads are incorrect. I can't rule it out. But I do not want to lynch either until the distrust list people are all dead.

As it stands, I thus need Listo dead. I could be persuaded to lynch him tomorrow instead and Crissi today. If anything, Listo has been more active than Crissi, so I won't feel very bad about changing. But tomorrow, we'll be back at status quo.

[listo95]

I think I can agree with Ret on the Graeham thing. I honestly am a tiny bit suspicious of his "Listo is a bad lynch" but if that's the case he hasn't really tried to give reasons beyond my easiness of lynching as why and he hasn't tried to give a better target this day. Sadly this might be my last point of the day/game depending on if I'm lynched. I'd feel okay trying to get info from Graeham I just think we don't have enough time at this point sadly.

[Reticence]

@Danner:

Noted. How do you feel about Graeham basically accusing you and me of being scum leading town by the nose?

[Danner]

@Reticence:

I covered that behaviour in my analysis, and the latest action is in line with that.
I think Graeham is paranoid. That means distrusting absolutely everyone.
I also think he is town. Mostly. But I also have two decent reasons to think he is not (both listed and analysed in the analysis post).

If my shortlist of scum reaches zero, he's probably the first one I will re-examine.

[Reticence]

/goes back to reread.

[Danner]

Defence of Senna D1.
Complaints about lynching Catta on D2.

[shirokitsune]

@Danner, Your short list consists of Listo and Crissi. But you also mention:

However, there are two very negative incidents that makes me doubt. The defence of Senna on day 1 and the QQ post about lynching the GF - both those I hold against him rather massively. If not for those, I would have moved him right up to the level of town-certain I am that Virothe is town. Now he's going to have to share a space with Shiro and Xanjori. Which is still pretty good.

Couldn't that also mean that if Listo is scum, perhaps Graeham's defense of Listo is from a partner standpoint?

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Although given all the information we're getting from Listo as highnoon approaches leads us to believe they're town, I'm not happy with their whole 'If I go, I hope town loses' mentality. That just seems spiteful and not very helpful.

[Danner]

@shirokitsune:
Graeham gets a town read from me due to him clearly trying. I do think he's a bit wrong in a lot of his targets. But the overall read is that he is trying, and that his voting (well, after that first one on me) isn't votes of opportunity. That's why I read him as town. It's not a strong read, but it's a read. I also explicitly mention the two incidents as situations I think tarnish that read.

If Listo flips scum, then that certainly is an angle worth considering, and should in no way be forgotten.
If Listo flips town, then it gets more difficult. I'm not sure I like to consider those kind of reads heavily.

[shirokitsune]

Also while Xanjori answered part of my question in #998, I still would like an answer to the directed question asked at the bottom. @Danner, also was hoping to hear from you on it.

Xanjori[/MENTION], @Danner What's your take on this regarding Kryllian then? Is it actually making sense for a scum team to continue to apparently ignore a claimed doctor?

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I had seen Crissi's and Ret's response, if I missed yours @Danner, I apologize. Also the fact that @Xanjori, commented on a questionish/comment just 2 sentences prior and then seemingly ignored the directed question Re: kryllian looks odd to me.

[Reticence]

Defence of Senna D1.
Complaints about lynching Catta on D2.

Ah, I knew you mentioned it briefly in the top portion but forgot the detail in the bottom part.

That's all fair. And I think the worst part for me is that I believe his behavior is inherently anti-town but I don't know if I can scum-read him for it. Being an omniscient spectator in the D&D game showed me that he and I just don't approach these games in the same way. Still, I want to say that he's offered cogent reasoning to support his concerns in the past, which makes the complete lack thereof in this game problematic for me.

To that end, if we do indeed have a vigilante, I'd like to formally request that Graeham be targeted tonight if a better target is not identified. Best-case scenario, he's an unhelpful townie who has demonstrated an unwillingness to do anything save repeat the same paranoid train of thought without evidence or an alternative for us to consider. Town or not, that's not something I think we want around for endgame, but I don't think we want to waste a day on him, either. He's already indicated a willingness to be sacrificed to avoid being used as a scapegoat train at a critical time, so I would like to think that this is ideal for all parties involved.

[Danner]

Also while Xanjori answered part of my question in #998, I still would like an answer to the directed question asked at the bottom. @Danner, also was hoping to hear from you on it.

Sorry, I seem to have missed that.

I believe the answer presented by others is the right one. Because he was lynchable.

Kryllian was under very heavy scrutiny (by me in particular) until last gameday. It was a decent chance I could have gotten him lynched. For scum to kill such a player doesn't make a terrible amount of sense.

However, that was only true until last gameday. After Anakso was lynched, Kryllian got a much stronger 'alibi'. I begun this gameday expressing discomfort about what is going on precisely because I don't understand why the scum didn't kill either me or Kryllian. I offered a theory, but I cannot say I fully believe it. Something is indeed likely up, and I wish I knew exactly what it is.

[Xanjori]

Also while Xanjori answered part of my question in #998, I still would like an answer to the directed question asked at the bottom. @Danner, also was hoping to hear from you on it.



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I had seen Crissi's and Ret's response, if I missed yours @Danner, I apologize. Also the fact that @Xanjori, commented on a questionish/comment just 2 sentences prior and then seemingly ignored the directed question Re: kryllian looks odd to me.

How was I meant to tell that was a question for me? It has @Danner in it...

And yes, scum teams have often left claimed TPRs alive quite a while. I mean it depends how many issues they think Kryll is causing them. If it's not their NK that has been blocked then what do they gain from killing him right now? I mean they can simply WIFOM him in to protecting himself repeatedly while they pick off everyone else.

[shirokitsune]

Ah, I knew you mentioned it briefly in the top portion but forgot the detail in the bottom part.

That's all fair. And I think the worst part for me is that I believe his behavior is inherently anti-town but I don't know if I can scum-read him for it. Being an omniscient spectator in the D&D game showed me that he and I just don't approach these games in the same way. Still, I want to say that he's offered cogent reasoning to support his concerns in the past, which makes the complete lack thereof in this game problematic for me.

To that end, if we do indeed have a vigilante, I'd like to formally request that Graeham be targeted tonight if a better target is not identified. Best-case scenario, he's an unhelpful townie who has demonstrated an unwillingness to do anything save repeat the same paranoid train of thought without evidence or an alternative for us to consider. Town or not, that's not something I think we want around for endgame, but I don't think we want to waste a day on him, either. He's already indicated a willingness to be sacrificed to avoid being used as a scapegoat train at a critical time, so I would like to think that this is ideal for all parties involved.

Out of curiosity, I see you requesting someone to hit Graeham, who do you think Kryllian should aim to protect if they are the Doctor? Who do you think is most likely to be aimed at by Scum? Would also be curious to hear @Danner's answer to these two as well.

[Danner]

To that end, if we do indeed have a vigilante, I'd like to formally request that Graeham be targeted tonight if a better target is not identified. Best-case scenario, he's an unhelpful townie who has demonstrated an unwillingness to do anything save repeat the same paranoid train of thought without evidence or an alternative for us to consider. Town or not, that's not something I think we want around for endgame, but I don't think we want to waste a day on him, either. He's already indicated a willingness to be sacrificed to avoid being used as a scapegoat train at a critical time, so I would like to think that this is ideal for all parties involved.

I am not wholly disagreeing.

From a pragmatic point of view, if we pick off one or two players at the "least trusted" end of the pool each gameday (lynch + vigkill), and the scum picks us off from the "most trusted" end, then endgame should look rather favourable.

This is why I am not fully concerned with whether listo is town or scum. He's definitively in the least trusted pool, and whether he's town or not is somewhat secondary towards the endgame goal.

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Out of curiosity, I see you requesting someone to hit Graeham, who do you think Kryllian should aim to protect if they are the Doctor? Who do you think is most likely to be aimed at by Scum? Would also be curious to hear @Danner's answer to these two as well.

I'm not going to tell Kryllian who to protect if he really is the doctor. Because that makes it way too easy to circumvent for scum. TPR's prerogative to decide for themselves.

[Reticence]

Out of curiosity, I see you requesting someone to hit Graeham, who do you think Kryllian should aim to protect if they are the Doctor? Who do you think is most likely to be aimed at by Scum? Would also be curious to hear @Danner's answer to these two as well.

Full Disclaimer: You might be able to get away with it this time because you're new, but this is generally viewed as a very suspicious question.

Requesting a hit from a vigilante and requesting a doctor protect are not really the same thing. I would rather leave the Doctor to his own devices; keeping the scum in the dark is more likely to result in a blocked kill.