Mafia #72: Heads of State. Game Thread

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 04:13 PM

Originally Posted by Crissi

My issue with @Xanjori actually stems from his reason for opening with a vote on me last day. Why would you think Anakso bought my theory when he directly called it a silly reason? I think you were pushing based off a misread, and that doesn't really sit well at all.

Can you provide post numbers for this conversation? I saw a bit of it on the way through my re-read, but I didn't quite connect all of it together.

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Also, I'm leaning back to thinking it's not Shiro.

* eyes Crissi warily.

**Crissi** · 2016-08-03, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by Reticence

Can you provide post numbers for this conversation? I saw a bit of it on the way through my re-read, but I didn't quite connect all of it together.

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Also, I'm leaning back to thinking it's not Shiro.

* eyes Crissi warily.

My defense at 1010, he called me out at 991 using that reason with Anakso, and Anakso calling my thinking silly at 843. I don't think I saw him say anything to that, as he just went after Listo and shiro after that.

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 04:46 PM

Ah. #843 was the one I missed. Thanks.

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About three and a half hours left.

I am wrapping up my re-read and will be back before deadline to read any final thoughts and place my vote.

**shirokitsune** · 2016-08-03, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Reticence

@shirokitsune:

I just realized (#1106) didn't really answer the question it was replying to. Mind going back to that?

Umm sure I could try, but I thought I covered it pretty well, here's more or less of a recap on it.

N1 and N2 Kills I think are mafia... mostly because it makes the most sense. Otherwise we have a mafia that failed or didn't attempt NKs for 2 days and a SK that hit the ground immediately and indiscriminately killing.

This seems unusual because if the game opened with multiple NKs we would have been pursuing the thoughts of a Vig/SK or 3rd party much earlier than we did. Especially if we had multiple nights of 2 Town deaths.

Add in that both deaths were town, again leads me to believe mafia. Admittedly this one is kind of a weak belief, because the only real assumption powering it is that mafia knows who they aren't.

Part of this stems as well in that we are making an assumption that Mafia has a recruitment method and yet every card we've seen for mafia makes no hint of that. And I was already chided for making the assumption the jester came with a vengeance ability. So either the mafia has a recruit method not listed in the displayed RCs on death, or they don't.

Lastly, multi deaths didn't happen until n3 and n4. Where if the SK was going to aim for mafia players they would have started having some actual good ideas where to look. Adding in that we had lynched a Mafia D1 and D2. When we lynched a town d3 and d4 that's when something killed a Mafia member at night. D5 we lynch a mafia and a town dies. Almost as if someone was trying to keep things balanced by making sure a mafia died every day.

It doesn't seem to farfetched to assume that at least 1 town death every night was the responsibility of a mafia. It also seems reasonable to believe that an SK waited to start killing until N3.

----------
I will also note that after redoing this analysis one more time... I'm far more inclined to believe that we don't have a pure doctor we just had a roleblocker instead, and just as we got lucky as town lynching the godfather day 1, scum got lucky and murdered the roleblocker night 1.

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Originally Posted by Xanjori

Arialla died at night. You're accusing me of having a NK. Work out how the two are connected.

Alright. That works for pointing me to that assumption.

Ok you claim you wouldn't make a mistake and vote for someone you killed.

... I'm not seeing how this is a defense.

If you are SK, then the simplest answer is you didn't kill Arialla but mafia did due to you either couldn't or didn't attempt a NK for n1. You could therefore make a mistake voting for arialla because you didn't catch they died due to Mafia.

If you are mafia, a little less likely given what I just posted about the SK possibly waiting, then you could have voted them because they were killed by an SK. The only way I could see you voting for Arialla (after they died) as mafia is if, again, you weren't paying attention and the rest of the team killed someone.

---
Computing it, this defense could exonerate you... if you were mafia and we didn't have a 2nd individual/team doing repeated killing.

As a result, since I believe the SK waited, I'm more willing to believe you ARE the sk and not the mafia. Because if you couldn't or didn't do an NK action n1 you could easily have been not paying attention and voting for someone who died.

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 06:42 PM

Thanks for the reply. You had addressed everything N3 and after the first time around, but not N1 and N2 as far as I could tell.

It's not unreasonable to think that they are mafia kills, I just wanted to know why you thought as much.

Other things to consider as part of your computing:
- Serial Killers very rarely wait to start killing. More night deaths = less lynches to dodge, generally speaking.
- Arialla might have blocked something N1, although that's hard to base a theory on.

As for traitor recruitment, there are three standard possible methods:
1) The traitor has a night action to seek out the Godfather (which may mean no traitors were recruited due to Catta dying D1, unless another mafioso took on this role).
2) The mafia has a night action to recruit. If this was limited to a dedicated role, it would probably show up in their card, but if it was a faction ability (like their kill), it might not.
3) The mafia night kill automatically recruits traitors if they are targeted. This could explain a missing kill or two, although I think it's unlikely the mafia would have targeted Blood Fox unless they were told up-front that they had traitors. If there is/was another traitor, though...

As an example, Arialla could have been killed by a serial killer trying to take out inactives to pose as a Vigilante later, and the mafia might have been blocked by Arialla, hit a traitor, or hit the SK (they often have a one-time vest). The last is probably the least likely; mafia often hit the same target on the following night if they have reason to believe they've hit the doctor.

**shirokitsune** · 2016-08-03, 06:59 PM

@Xanjori, forgot the last crucial sentences. My votes on you earlier in the day were because I firmly believed you were SOMETHING not town, but I couldn't get a strong feel for which potential not town thing you were; admittedly as long as you weren't town then it didn't really matter which you were as it would be one less threat for town. I had not until this post #1184 actually called out what I think your exact anti-town role is.

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Originally Posted by Reticence

Thanks for the reply. You had addressed everything N3 and after the first time around, but not N1 and N2 as far as I could tell.

It's not unreasonable to think that they are mafia kills, I just wanted to know why you thought as much.

Other things to consider as part of your computing:
- Serial Killers very rarely wait to start killing. More night deaths = less lynches to dodge, generally speaking.
- Arialla might have blocked something N1, although that's hard to base a theory on.

As for traitor recruitment, there are three standard possible methods:
1) The traitor has a night action to seek out the Godfather (which may mean no traitors were recruited due to Catta dying D1, unless another mafioso took on this role).
2) The mafia has a night action to recruit. If this was limited to a dedicated role, it would probably show up in their card, but if it was a faction ability (like their kill), it might not.
3) The mafia night kill automatically recruits traitors if they are targeted. This could explain a missing kill or two, although I think it's unlikely the mafia would have targeted Blood Fox unless they were told up-front that they had traitors. If there is/was another traitor, though...

As an example, Arialla could have been killed by a serial killer trying to take out inactives to pose as a Vigilante later, and the mafia might have been blocked by Arialla, hit a traitor, or hit the SK (they often have a one-time vest). The last is probably the least likely; mafia often hit the same target on the following night if they have reason to believe they've hit the doctor.

------
I did read a couple things that suggest Vigilantes and SK's are forced to wait a night or two before they can start, however. So if they were waiting, it might not have been entirely voluntary.

Also with my last major wall of text. I could actually believe we are now at 4v1v0 and that crissi is actually a VT. Though we won't know for certain until nightfall.

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Originally Posted by Reticence

3) The mafia night kill automatically recruits traitors if they are targeted. This could explain a missing kill or two, although I think it's unlikely the mafia would have targeted Blood Fox unless they were told up-front that they had traitors. If there is/was another traitor, though...

Actually focusing on this. What if they aren't missing a kill? If we take as an assumption that mafia hasn't missed a night, the only days that we would be missing extra kills from an SK would be n1 and n2 which are explained by my earlier reasoning, leaving only n5 as the odd night out.

Two possibilities for that then using what you've suggested as well.
We could make an assumption that both mafia and SK went for the same person once.
SK went for the Townie and Mafia went for the SK. IF SK had that 1 time vest.

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 07:19 PM

Yeah, it's hard to say which of the possibilities is true. Though, truthfully, the only part that probably has any pertinence to today is whether or not we should be concerned about another mafioso due to a missing mafia kill.

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One hour left. Notes from my reread:

Spoiler:

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I feel that I can rule Shiro out as mafia based on his vote record and his theories, particularly those revolving around Kryllian. He's also put himself out there far too much and picked fights with too many people for me to reasonably think that he's a serial killer. Perhaps this was a newbie "mistake" on his part, but even so I am not sure I want to punish him for it. We need fresh approaches and high activity in our games going forward. I also got the sense that his suspicions were more broad at the start (understandable) and gained focus as the game progressed, which gave me the impression that he was far more discriminating about his targets than others give him credit for.

Crissi made many comments about Kryllian but never voted on him of her own accord... add in the vote record and it'd be very easy to make the case for her being mafia. I also felt like there were slight shifts in her play on D3/D6. Given missing kills, no Doctor claim, Blood Fox's card not stating that he needed to look for the Godfather, and him being unlikely to be targeted with a kill that early (alternative recruitment method)... I wouldn't be surprised if Crissi was recruited. Her hands-off approach and unwillingness to take risks also is suitable for a serial killer.

Xanjori, on the other hand, has had shifting suspicions. Today, at least, it seems somewhat parallel to who Virothe and I are looking at at the moment, and a lot of his contribution (Kryllian notwithstanding) earlier in the game seemed to lack the commitment I expect from town-Xanjori. He's not mafia, that's for sure, but he strikes me as most likely to be the serial killer. I don't think the point about Arialla is compelling; there's no telling who that kill came from, and there's good reason to think Anakso pushed that kill and no reason not to think that the serial killer was the one who didn't hit someone.

My instinct keeps pulling me back to Xanjori. Even were it not and it was a complete wash between these three, sometimes when I can't decide between distrusted targets I default to the following: "To whom would I be more alright with losing?"

If Shiro is scum, then I think he deserves the win. Some hiccups along the way, but extremely well played for a newcomer.

If Virothe is scum, nothing about last night makes a damn bit of sense, and he somehow pulled off a wicked fake-claim without getting countered. Well played there, too.

I want to lynch Xanjori today. If the game doesn't end and I die tonight, then barring new, game-changing information, I highly suggest you lynch Crissi tomorrow.

For better or worse.

**Virothe** · 2016-08-03, 07:26 PM

Originally Posted by Reticence

earlier in the game seemed to lack the commitment I expect from town-Xanjori. He's not mafia, that's for sure

See thing is Xanj to me is someone who generally gets committed when he eventually finds something to latch on to, I've seen it happen here and there with Shiro and a few others but I guess the odd thing is nothing he's done has seemed to stick and by the end of it it's like he's given up.
It is a bit weird, but I felt more likely Xanj was having the same issue I was when dealing with the newer players that he just wasn't sure enough of them to pursue anything.

I can see where you're coming from though Ret and I have a hard time disagreeing with it, but I just haven't felt the type of malice I usually do from Xanj when he's scum. But then again I don't think I've ever seen Xanj as an SK, or I didn't live long enough to take not of it, so it's possible that's exactly where he is and it's the reason we both seem to be reading him in the middle.

**Crissi** · 2016-08-03, 07:30 PM

Well, less than an hour. So Im going to get my vote out now as Im currently trying to learn python and pretend im being productive when my dad checks that Im actually being productive.

Vote Xanjori

print('this has been fun in case I die tonight')

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 07:31 PM

@Virothe:

Yeah. I only recall Xanjori being the SK during the MLP game, and I think we killed him off too early to get a good feel for him in that role. :\

What really did it for my read on Shiro was rereading from the beginning of the game. He seemed like he was everywhere at first, but pulled in his focus as the game went on. The interactions between him, Dupti and Danner were very interesting to me.

Most of all, I liked that he wasn't afraid to be wrong. He acknowledged that he was nervous about it, but that didn't seem to stop him. That strikes me as a very townie (especially VT) way to play.

**Xanjori** · 2016-08-03, 07:36 PM

Well have fun in your 2v1 tomorrow I spose. G'luck to whoever survives.

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Originally Posted by Reticence

Yeah. I only recall Xanjori being the SK during the MLP game, and I think we killed him off too early to get a good feel for him in that role. :\

And yse, that's the only ever time Ive been an SK on this forum, I got hit night one, lost my BVP and then died night 2.

**Reticence** · 2016-08-03, 07:37 PM

It was a horrible decision on our part, as I recall. One of many.

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Here goes nothing.

Vote: Xanjori

**shirokitsune** · 2016-08-03, 07:38 PM

Thank you Reticence for finding my comment @ #448... I knew I had done it just couldn't find it and I hate losing good lines like that.

Also regarding the RP comment in #1142. That was more following up and in conjunction to the answer to Crissi in #1140. It might make more sense if both posts are on the same page

Originally Posted by shirokitsune

Originally Posted by crissi

So you had a one off ability then essentially become a VT? That doesn't really sound right.

The claim of USA having a one-off kill ability I guess is plausible. And it would explain the 3 kills nicely.

Originally Posted by crissi

I mean it explains the 3rd kill, but that means mafia offed Danner and SK took off graham. But then why take off Graeham when his posting style was less problematic for the SK, unless one of the people mentioned by him as " why aren't these people focused" was the SK. Danner is dead, I know I'm not it, and that leaves Ret and Xanj.

Why are you certain it means mafia killed danner and sk killed graeham instead of mafia killing graeham and sk killing danner?

Basing per comments from Reticence as well; strategic wise it would make sense for an SK to off Danner, and if Mafia was still flailing around looking for the SK that would explain killing Graeham.

Originally Posted by shirokitsune

Nevermind I guess if we use the nightly RP... that would explain basing it as mafia killing danner.

The last bit is me basically realizing the bolded sentence wouldn't work if the RP was accurate and the RP fits the underlined part. Crissi was basically pointing out an error.

**Xanjori** · 2016-08-03, 07:39 PM

Originally Posted by Virothe

See thing is Xanj to me is someone who generally gets committed when he eventually finds something to latch on to, I've seen it happen here and there with Shiro and a few others but I guess the odd thing is nothing he's done has seemed to stick and by the end of it it's like he's given up.
It is a bit weird, but I felt more likely Xanj was having the same issue I was when dealing with the newer players that he just wasn't sure enough of them to pursue anything.

And to be fair this has been far and away one of my worst games as town, I'll admit that. When I tried to get real involved in the game I've had some huge RL shit fuck with me that keeps causing me all sorts of problems. I came back to playing after a break because I had spare time, but things really hit the fan over this past month and as a result I made some mistakes this game (like not noticing Ariallas death.)

On top of that it was hard to latch on to anything because the only active scum was Kryll, and I kept believing we had to have a doctor, so while there was no counter-claim I wasn't willing to risk lynching him.

As for who I think could be the SK at this point. It's a complete coin toss. I can't help but feel Reticence is about to take the win ina very well played game. Shiro has annoyed me with what I consider continual bad play but if he wins as SK then so be it. The kill pattern has Virothe all over it, but his claim for the kill on Kryll wasnt countered at all and I think rules him out.

Deleted · 2016-08-03, 08:32 PM

Yahya Jammeh (Xanjori) was arguing strongly in the UN. His record wasn't the best, being an African dictator, but his arguments were sound. However that counted for naught as the delegates were swayed by other arguments. And so a rope was rigged up to hang from the lights, the noose place around Yahya's neck and he was promptly nudged off the stage.

Xanjori - Yahya Jammeh - "President" of Gambia (VT) was lynched on Day 7.

CC: Yahya Jammeh
RC: VT
Faction: Town
Description: You are Yahya Jammeh, "President" of Gambia. You took over without killing anyone but you really don't like people that don't agree with you or your world view.
Win Condition: Eliminate all threats to the UN (town)

**Graeham** · 2016-08-03, 09:29 PM

so i herd u guyz need a bump

Deleted · 2016-08-03, 09:56 PM

Hilary Clinton/Donald Trump (Virothe) strode up the center aisle of the UN to take the stage together. They bickered about who would speak first, with Donald not being a gentleman and getting the first word in:

"CRISSI RYHMES WITH SISSY AND THERES NONE OF THOSE ALLOWED IN MY GAME!"

Hilary promptly followed that up with:
"I give up, you have most likely doomed us Trump. Just like you would doom America."

Behind the pair a giant TV screen lit up showing a nuclear missile descending on Enrique Peña Nieto's (Crissi) homeland: Mexico. Mexico City lit up like a Christmas tress, killing millions, with the fallout expected to kill more. Enrique broke down in a blubbering mess to never recover from it.

"Well I guess we won't have to worry about that wall" Donald quipped

The remaining members of the UN decided that they had to take action to stop these madmen! However it was to late. The USA was to powerful. And so the mighty United Nations crumbled

Criss - Enrique Peña Nieto - President of Mexico (Mafia Traitor) was nuked on Night 7.

Virothe - Donald Trump/Hilary Clinton - Presidental Nominees of USA (Serial Killer) has won the game

Reticence - David Cameron - Prime Minister of the UK has been eliminated
shirokitsune - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan - President of Turkey has been eliminated

**Crackleslap** · 2016-08-03, 09:59 PM

How does a SK win.

**Crissi** · 2016-08-03, 10:01 PM

heh. That was fun. Gratz exceptionally skilled Virothe

For the record, I was never recruited.

**Xanjori** · 2016-08-03, 10:02 PM

WP Virothe.

People really should pay some attention to the kill pattern.

How did we get 3 kills then?

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