Turkey threatens to leave NATO

[JohnBrown1917]

First of all, I wouldn't be so sure. First, you are not willing to give Gulen back and second, you are still helping Kurdish terrorists hard. Leaving NATO would have little to no economical impact. However, if West decides to sanction Turkey for leaving NATO, like Iran, then you would have yet-another enemy in the Middle East.

I, too, think it's barking and not biting but he has became even more unstable recently.

Why would they? Turkey has not provided any proof he did it to the US

[Kuntantee]

Why would they? Turkey has not provided any proof he did it to the US

How do you know Turkey has not provided any proof?

[Rennadrel]

They can go nuts tbh.

[Skroe]

Dont let the door hit ya on the way out.

Although
@Skore

could you tell us why we need Turkey?

Lots of reasons, but I'll give you the biggest reason, one of the reasons that got Turkey into NATO in the first place 60 years ago.


This is a map of where Russia keeps it's nuclear weapons.



This is a rough map of major Russian bases and radars.


And suddenly it should become clear why Turkey matters. Turkey is ideally situated for access to Russia's soft underbelly. Much lighter defenses than the Polish (previously during the Cold War, West German) border. This is why throughout the Cold War, missiles were based here at various points and bombs are still based there.

In 1961 the US Considered Medium Range Ballistic Missiles in Cuba an unacceptable security threat. The result was the Cuban Missile Crisis. The truth is, Russia has been living with something far worse, from NATO, for sixty years. B-1Bs (pre-disarmament) and B-2s flying out of Turkey (or using it as a pre-positioning point), armed with B60 nuclear bombs, could wipe out much of Russia's military infrastreucture behind it's Western-European defensive line. Particularly, during the Cold War (and still to some degree), the job of the B-1B and B-2 would have been specifically to go behind "enemy lines" and hunt for mobile launchers. This informed the B-1B's speed. It informed both the B-2s design (originally a high altitude bomber, an expensive redesign allowed for low altitude penetration bombing). Hell the B-2 has a direct sattelite link up so it can hunt for those launchers using a real time "eye in the sky".

Many of Ulmita's Nuke Fantasy threads ends with him getting hit in the face with the fact that the US worked very hard to find various ways, various scenarios, whereby it could destroy Russia's ability to launch nuclear weapons if we launched a first strike. This is a key component of that. How else would those B-2s get to Russia's soft underbelly, if not from Turkey? Afghanistan that doesnt have the facilities and is too far? Diego Garcia? Maybe Bulgaria nowdays, but a key feature during the Cold War with the B-2 was that it would be in Russian airspace before the Russians even knew they had taken off. Doing it from Bulgaria would require probably nuking all of Crimea first.

For it's extremely useful geographical location for nuclear deterrence, Turkey is worth holding on to. Period. This is not the first time Turkey's been a problem. It won't be the last. But the math never changes: for their stunts, and picadillos, you can't beat the fact that the Russians have no defense against missiles or bombers striking their soft underbelly from there. It's the argument that will always win, because at the end of the day, nuclear deterrence matters more than Turkish Democracy, if Turkey is being helpful with Refugees, or if Erdogan is being a twat.

Folks wanting Turkey to leave should be careful what they wish for. The US is current embroiled in a big, if wonkish, debate over the Long Range Stand Off Weapon, a $20 billion nuclear cruise missile. Most of congress and the President want to build it. Liberals do not. Problem with that is that is that every other cruise missile program ever has cost at most about $3 billion. A $20 billion program, with it's price tag and time table has "hypersonic prompt global strike" weapon over it. Were Turkey to leave and US lose access, you'd find the argument for building a regional first generation nuclear prompt global strike weapon seriously embolded. The US will look to replace B60 nuclear bombs in Turkey with hypersonic, extremely long range missiles carried on B-52s and B-2s, from Diego Garcia that will be ideal for striking Russia's soft underbelly. In other words, Turkey leaving could precpititate something worse... something the US isn't exactly sure it wants to do quite yet.

And chances are with Russia being the way it is, you'd see countries like Germany and Italy also be bases for LRSO.

Now we can sit here cackling like supervillians at how the US is less than a decade out from having a brand new ultimate weapon and how fucked Russia is because of that. Or we can think rationally about the role Turkey does place and how changing the equation by taking the B60s out of there and losing air space access, could initiate a chain of destabilizing events. Personally, I prefer the status quo because it's a stable deterrence model. We got the B60's in Turkey, if we need them. Them being there, for now, skips the massive shitstorm that will happen when it comes out that the US discretely began moving LRSO to Germany without some ridiculous public debate in German, as happened with Pershing II in the 1980s (kinda).

This is in the end, just an argument for a status quo that is stable, regardless of Erdogan being a jackoff, than changing the entire security arrangement in a way that could have really unexpected repercussions.

[Coronius]

Oh no, what will we do without Turkey.

[Skroe]

First of all, I wouldn't be so sure. First, you are not willing to give Gulen back and second, you are still helping Kurdish terrorists hard. Leaving NATO would have little to no economical impact. However, if West decides to sanction Turkey for leaving NATO, like Iran, then you would have yet-another enemy in the Middle East.

I, too, think it's barking and not biting but he has became even more unstable recently.

Being an enemy of the United States has worked out for precisely no one.

Never forget what you are. We are the superpower. You are the regional partner. We are your patron. You are the recipient. We have mutually benefited.

Iran turning against us has devastated that country for 35 years.

Russia alienating us has reigned havoc on it's economy and international standing in just a few years.

China being provacative has made it more isolated than its been in decades, because at the end of the day, we're the stronger East-Asian nation.

So think carefully about picking up the US as an enemy. Think very carefully. Think about the last time anyone has truly managed to stop us. Think about the last time, even when we got a black eye onver it, we didn't emerge on top. It doesn't work. We are powerful enough to do whatever we want, wherever we want and resourced enough to find ways to win that our competitors can't..

Being an enemy of the United States is the single stupidest thing any country can do. The United States has a friendly, generous, cooperative face. But never forget, it also has a nightmarishly vicious side that looks at how Europeans talk about "proportionality" and think it as quaint as an English garden. Europeans have proportionality. We have the Powell Doctrine.

Figure out how to be our friend.

- - - Updated - - -

Man you leave NATO people are delusional in the extreme. I hope many of you are continental Europeans.

I think it's going to be so hilariously deserved... all of you will deserve it... when the US redistributes it's B60 nuclear bombs in Turkey to your countries, and you don't even know about it until some newspaper blows the lid on it five years later.

I bet you all didn't even think of that. You didn't think about the cascading effects. You just want to make yourselves feel better, kicking out the Muslim country with a crazy leader that's been a pain in the ass on refugees. You don't give a shred of thought as to why Turkey does matter and how things will change if it left, for your countries, as that gap is filled.

[Nihilist74]

Let them deal with Syria. Bad thing is they used to be a moderate country. Now turkey is becoming more of a fundamentalist country.

[Skroe]

Let them deal with Syria. Bad thing is they used to be a moderate country. Now turkey is becoming more of a fundamentalist country.

Who cares?

Are they doing generally what their NATO partners want? On the other side of a lot of bitching, moaning, arguing and drama, in large part because Erdogan has all the professionalism of a 6th grader, yes. They generally do. They drive a hard bargain, but they play ball. That is all the matters. That when push comes to shove, they do what we want. Mostly.

If they want to fuck their country's future into the dirt, they can have a party.

As for Gulen, the US should wrap him up in a bow and put him on the first plane over. Turkey's cooperation is worth more than one frail old man who will be dead in the next few years anyway.

[Deathquoi]

The Turkish government really thinks their staged coup was convincing?

[Onvious]

well he just talks, but he never do something to NATO or USA

[Malacrass]

Bad thing is they used to be a moderate country. Now turkey is becoming more of a fundamentalist country.

That's really the biggest tragedy, really. I was looking forward to a moderate, secular Turkey.

Oh well, at least we can be glad that Erdogan showed his true colors before Turkey could become a member of the EU.

[Skroe]

That's really the biggest tragedy, really. I was looking forward to a moderate, secular Turkey.

Oh well, at least we can be glad that Erdogan showed his true colors before Turkey could become a member of the EU.

You guys should still let Turkey in. Dangling the EU as a carrot will induce reform.

Besides Erdogan is getting old. He won't be around forever.

[Theodarzna]

I would have thought they would be too busy sating their lust for Armenian blood after Erdogan's victory over that "coup," to be so angry at the west.

[Yvaelle]

@Skroe

If we aren't talking about a land invasion, does "Russia's soft underbelly" matter? All the power and shit of interest in Russia is near the Baltic Sea - so Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania/Norway/Poland/Ukraine are worth 10x more each than Turkey - because they give you closer air access: if that's even a consideration given the force projection of our carrier battle groups from sea - in which case all the world's oceans are basically on our side.

If we are talking about a land invasion of Russia (I want to say, "Fucking lol?" but somehow I think this is what you're seriously talking about) - then what good does occupying the urals, via Turkey, do us? It's the Russian equivalent of Wyoming - the whole place could be under Neo-Soviet Occuptation right now, and nobody would know - because nobody lives in Wyoming: that's the Russian Urals (except moreso, because Russia is ginormous, and the emptiest place on earth).

The only real explanation for Turkey's importance in Ulmita's nuke fantasy threads - is that it gets us in range of their bases: fair point. But that was all based on early cold war era first strike capability. I'm sure we have sufficient range and tech nowadays to put a nuke on a Russian launch site from further away than Ankara: and that's entertaining the fairly hilarious idea that the US would decide to perform a nuclear first strike on Russia with the aim to completely cripple their ability to respond, under the impact of dozens of nuclear explosions. Which just to repeat, is some Call of Duty-calibre war-fantasy-masturbation.

[Grimfrost]

Can they also take back all the erdoturks?

Yes please!! They have been raging and breaking stuff in my country...FOR TURKEY , like what the hell, why?

[Deleted]

@Skroe is there any topic you dont seem to be an expert in, and love to write long posts about? :P

love reading your posts, always very informative!

[Mihalik]

Okay Turkey.

You do that.

By the way, forget about that Visa free travel. While we are at it, we might as well ship back a few million refugees to you and go like #Notourproblem.

Also there are these guys who do most the fighting for us against ISIS...what were they called?

Ah! I remember! The Kurds.

Maybe we should ship them a few million machine guns, some armor, maybe even give them an Airforce! Yup that sounds good.

[Blobfish]

Could be reason why things are slowly starting up in the Ukraine again

see below

USA knows Turkey is going to present problems down track.
So now wants the Ukraine as a Western NATO Ally so it has somewhere close to Mother Russia to put its Nukes in.

Looks like the CIA has been stirring up trouble in the Ukraine overnight.

Ukraine is ordering its troops to be on the "highest level of combat readiness" Thursday, amid
growing tensions with Russia over Crimea.
The order comes after Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of launching a militant attack at "critically important infrastructure" near the city of Armyansk, Crimea, according to Russia's state news service TASS.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/11/eu...mea/index.html

[Kuntantee]

Being an enemy of the United States has worked out for precisely no one.

Never forget what you are. We are the superpower. You are the regional partner. We are your patron. You are the recipient. We have mutually benefited.

Iran turning against us has devastated that country for 35 years.

Russia alienating us has reigned havoc on it's economy and international standing in just a few years.

China being provacative has made it more isolated than its been in decades, because at the end of the day, we're the stronger East-Asian nation.

So think carefully about picking up the US as an enemy. Think very carefully. Think about the last time anyone has truly managed to stop us. Think about the last time, even when we got a black eye onver it, we didn't emerge on top. It doesn't work. We are powerful enough to do whatever we want, wherever we want and resourced enough to find ways to win that our competitors can't..

Being an enemy of the United States is the single stupidest thing any country can do. The United States has a friendly, generous, cooperative face. But never forget, it also has a nightmarishly vicious side that looks at how Europeans talk about "proportionality" and think it as quaint as an English garden. Europeans have proportionality. We have the Powell Doctrine.

Figure out how to be our friend.

Your post involves bunch of American style empty threats to be honest. You couldn't even break the will of Iranians, what makes you think you can break the will of Turks? Instead, Iranians broke your will and you signed the deal. If Turkey becomes your enemy, now that's the when shit will go fun. Do not confuse Turks with Iranians. Turks can endure long hardship and do not mind military confrontation.

The moment you lose Turkey, Russia goes free and you will lose your power projection capability in Middle East. This was well-known since 30s or so. American Empire is an empire already in decline. You, the superpower, lost the proxy battle in Syria to a regional power -- Russia --, if you haven't noticed. Among all nations in Middle East, Turkey is one of the countries which is not intimidated by USA in the slightest.

So, please, save your "patron" narrative to someone else, and try not to lose your second confrontation in pacific. Otherwise, people will start laughing the superpower with their asses.

[Malacrass]

You guys should still let Turkey in. Dangling the EU as a carrot will induce reform.

Besides Erdogan is getting old. He won't be around forever.

Honestly, I don't think it will happen during my lifetime.

The quick change of direction under Erdogan was incredibly scary, and what's worse is that he does have most Turkish citizens backing him. Even if we assume that the election in Turkey is partially rigged, no one can deny that a large part is perfectly okay with what happens there currently.

I also think he doesn't even care anymore. Now it's full-blown dictatorship, China style.