I'm not a math guy at all and so i have no idea if your whole shebang pans out. Lets just say it does, i've never seen anyone predict such a thing purely by math. There is always things we cant account for.
It makes sense that on longer single target fights its going to be less of a nerf. But on priority targets in for example mythic dungeons that die in a matter of 10-15 seconds or less its going to make a difference.
A burst nerf, while maybe not hurting our overall dps so much, is definately something we can still feel in aspects of the game.
Its not like we where first priority for mythic+ dungeons as it was already
You can in fact predict just about everything with math. The things that fail prediction are things you didn't model properly. The only thing his extrapolation doesn't account for is energy, which has an actual value to DPS. Sims wise he's pretty damn close if you neglect energy entirely, if you don't it lands somewhere at about 12% nerf. Which adds up actually... They were sim-ing at about 380k and now 329k resulting in approx 13% nerf. However, the change in the ability should be seen as a balance. It wasn't because of anything except that assassination was doing way too much damage comparatively to not only other rogue specs, but all melee/dps as a whole.
As for mythic+, things tend to die relatively slowly but group pulled allowing rupture to tick considerably. I found that if you stagger a 5pt, 3pt, 3pt, 2pt on a 4 target group in mythic+5ish that was right around perfect and allowed for a TON of energy regen for mut/env. Being that rupture is nearly half of the damage we actually output anyway, it was pretty considerable. Was is pure cleave/aoe level? no, but it was reasonable. If anything, sub has the harder time imo with AOE because their AOE revolves around SD which they also need to bank charges for the boss. That results in much harder decision making during gameplay than either of the other specs. But they are rewarded with Shadow Nova....... (that part was /sarcasm lol)
yeah, i just feel like they shouldve nerfed it differently
like make exsang reduce the damage of rupture while it's up so it's still a big burst, and fast energy etc but the overall damage remains like it's now.
they coulve also just made rupture do way less damage but scale with mastery so it's not this insane now but also doesnt get outscaled
Because playstyle, feel. Just because I can play outlaw at 100% it's capacity does not mean you can play it at that level. You might be 95%. Still good, possibly great even. But if you were sub and you were 100% and I was sub and 80%, I would never play sub. You'd clearly be better. As such, ST we'd be VERY close, and both playing specs we enjoy. 2 target you'd even outperform me on likely where as add cleave I'd outperform you probably. There is trade off.. what we lack though is the talents to mitigate that tradeoff and provide dynamic gameplay. But if the numbers are close.. idc. Very, very rarely have we had fights where adds need to die fast.. we just happened to have 2 in HFC, outside of that they just get cleaved when they get cleaved. If all the specs are competitive it's better for the game as a whole. Limiting one specs ST ability just because it has better passive cleave is as archaic as limiting Spriests because they also have the ability to toss a shield/heal at points. Every spec should have a baseline AOE ability, some should be better. Every spec should have a baseline cleave, some should be better. But every spec should be good at ST. If they could get the margins even tighter it'd be amazing. Expecting any game to balance around 20 man, 10man, flex, 5man mythic+, keep an eye out on pvp, etc.. that's asking too much.
I'm yet to see enough final figures to be sure about that. Certainly we're marginally ahead of Sub (not by enough to matter) and marginally behind Outlaw (that's on mean so you still have RNG dropping Outlaw below us sometimes.)
That is the question of the moment. Personally I'm not convinced that it's worth the risk given Blizzard's past history with combat ST. Again and again they've nerfed the spec when AOE was too high and everyone ran it. With having to take a punt on one spec (because artifact) I would be very worried about Blizz nerfing Outlaw and making the investment into the artifact a waste.
Not sure who these other classes are? Assassination rogues have been performing at a very high level on Beta even after the nerf, certainly not worried about other melee classes. There's the usual mix of hunters/mages/warlocks performing well with rogues (as they should) but ST Sin still seems ahead on what I've been seeing?
Yup, Outlaw will fluctuate AROUND other rogues often. Fight duration and RNG are going to play a large part. If fights like Archi that require precision push timing are up.. Outlaw could kinda fuck that up. Another thing is with the way SD works.. Sub plays REALLY well at 20s fights but 50s that burst slows. How fight durations impact all 3 specs is a potential point to look at when choosing what you want.
I agree, we really need some solid confirmation that once the specs go legion-live they'll have the knobs tuned to the point where they'll only adjust huge outliers and not twiddle with the base-specs. Any class that gets a week 2/3 nerf is going to get absolutely screwed. However, most of those nerfs have come from PvP doing too much dmg, that being said, they have separate knobs there to tune so hopefully it won't change much. I'm personally VERY nervous pushing into legion wary my spec might get further nerfed because of some archaic mindset that since I have the ability to AOE I should just be bad at ST.
To put in perspective.. if they go that route there's absolutely ZERO reason to play combat in raid until you have a 2nd artifact leveled. There's never been a raid tier that you just need the AOE portion so much you spec for that. You've always spec'd for ST output and hoped you could contribute AOE wise. People are bitching that Outlaw is competitive but the problem is, if it's not why the hell would you even play it?