2016-2017 NFL Thread

[Grube]

If we face a team like Denver, with an elite pass rush on both sides we are absolutely toast this season. (like last season)

If it makes you feel better, by that game Michael Schofield will be playing one of the tackle spots (unless Okung somehow stays healthy), and he gets beat bad by 3rd/4th string guys. Tackles are like QBs, severe lack of decent pass blockers at the position, let alone enough to have depth in the case of injuries.

I'm not even sure what to think of Denver's o-line. They have been horrible in pass blocking, but the preseason play calling has been extremely pass heavy. They have been good in run blocking again, so I guess at least that part is promising.

[xskarma]

Oh, and just to brighten my Sunday further, apparently Shaq Mason who was our starting LG for much of last year has broken his hand, so he's pretty much out of the race for the starting RG job now, leaving it to Josh Kline (who gave up most of the pressures on Garoppolo this preseason) and a rookie Ted Karras. We already have a rookie starting at LG Thuney (who's been our best linemen though, by some margin) so there's a possiblity we are starting 2 rookies at Guard for the second year running.

O-line, man. Luxury problem, I know, but such a pain in the ass when you have issues there.

[Vetali]

A pointless change, if not negative.

[xskarma]

A pointless change, if not negative.

Oh yeah. I posted about it in the fantasy thread but not here. Injury report just became pointless, really. Everyone who has even the smallest ailment will be put on it and pretty much all of them will still play, but could have possibly not played, you know?

[Grube]

Broncos signed Henry Melton for DE depth after a couple injuries. Looks like he had a couple good years with the Bears, but know nothing about him. Is he a more of a situational pass rusher or a 3 down guy?

Injury reports were kind of pointless to begin with other than knowing if someone was actually out or not, since some teams put half their roster on them, so not like it will change much other than which category they are listed under.

[Vetali]

Oh yeah. I posted about it in the fantasy thread but not here. Injury report just became pointless, really. Everyone who has even the smallest ailment will be put on it and pretty much all of them will still play, but could have possibly not played, you know?

I need to post in there so I get notifications lol.

But yeah, dumb move. Now everyone will be questionable.

[Grube]

Trevor Siemian is starting for the Broncos this week, but Kubiak has not named him as the regular season starter. Does lean toward that though since week 3 is the only time the starters play more than 1-2 drives in the preseason.

[xskarma]

Trevor Siemian is starting for the Broncos this week, but Kubiak has not named him as the regular season starter. Does lean toward that though since week 3 is the only time the starters play more than 1-2 drives in the preseason.

Yeah, at worst this means Kubiak wants to see him have extended time with the 1's and see how he does, with the pressure and the extra scrutiny and the better personnel. Definitely looking up for him if he can at least get so far as to not fuck it up next game.

[Pendulous]

Dak Prescott got a perfect quarterback rating last week. I feel bad because these two weeks have hyped him up so much, there's no way he can live up to it.

[Gestopft]

Yeah, at worst this means Kubiak wants to see him have extended time with the 1's and see how he does, with the pressure and the extra scrutiny and the better personnel. Definitely looking up for him if he can at least get so far as to not fuck it up next game.

Kubiak certainly has a much better idea about what Sanchez can (and can't) do. If Siemian can demonstrate himself as less mistake-prone than Sanchez, he'll more than likely get the nod.

[THE Bigzoman]

Dak Prescott got a perfect quarterback rating last week. I feel bad because these two weeks have hyped him up so much, there's no way he can live up to it.

Aj McCarron is a starter.

How much do YOU want? Gimmie Gregory.

[Gestopft]

Time for some predictions:

My analysis from the end of last season can be found here. In general, I think that the top tier is still fairly set in the NFC- other teams are going to have a really hard time breaking into the upper echelon. The AFC looks comparatively wide open however- those divisions were more difficult to pick, particularly the South where the play of QBs who are new or returning from injury is hard to predict, and will immensely affect how the division shakes up.

NFC West:
Seahawks- This year should feature another titanic battle between Seattle and Arizona for control of the West. Seattle’s defense will still be good, there are many emerging playmakers on the offensive side, and their offensive line woes haven’t yet prevented them from being a Super Bowl contender in recent years
Cardinals- Arizona features a loaded roster, but the battle with Seattle is largely dependent on Carson Palmer’s health. Seattle gets a slight edge in part because Wilson is less likely to miss time than Palmer
Rams- New city, new quarterback, same old Jeff Fisher-led mediocre Rams? It will be hard for Jared Goff to be as bad as last year’s Rams QBs, but Los Angeles still needs more depth in the secondary and at wide receiver before they can climb the standings
49ers- A full season after parting ways with one headstrong coach, they hire another to take the reins in San Francisco... Expect Chip Kelly’s defense to (once again) be the most overworked in the league, as this squad still has a lot of rebuilding to do- especially on offense

NFC North:
Packers- This division should be another exciting finish between top dogs in the NFC. Jordy Nelson’s return will help Aaron Rodgers, as last year his receivers often struggled to get open. Green Bay plays four straight home games early, and also has the easiest strength of schedule in the league heading into the season
Vikings- With AP not getting any younger, the divisional hopes of Minnesota rest on Teddy Bridgewater’s development. Green Bay has a slight edge, but this is a strong and balanced team- if they can beat Green Bay at home in week two and leave Carolina with a week three win, they’ll have to be considered favorites
Lions- Like the Rams, the Lions are another inconsistent team in a division with no room for error. If they can pick up where they left off, they’ll be in the playoff conversation for most of the year, but if they start like last year, they’ll fall to the bottom of the pile
Bears- John Fox’s squad fought hard last year, and won’t be pushovers. They’ll need to start stepping up under pressure and improve their performance at home before they can be picked to advance higher in the crowded North. The loss of Matt Forte’s versatility will definitely be felt in Chicago

NFC South:
Panthers- Carolina has been dominating the NFC South for some time now, and it’s hard to see that trend go away yet. While it’s unlikely that they can repeat last year’s 15-win performance, it’s even more unlikely that another team in the division will be able to catch up
Buccaneers- Tampa Bay has been an “I’ll believe it when I see it” team for a few years, but they showed positive signs on both sides of the ball during Jameis Winston’s rookie year. If this young team can clean up some of the mistakes and penalties that hounded them last season, they will be in a great spot moving forward
Falcons- Atlanta can have a strong, balanced offense as long as Matt Ryan limits his mistakes. If things come together on the defensive side, they could make some noise, but they need a functioning pass rush in order for this to happen. They also have a brutal schedule that pits them against the NFC and AFC Wests, Seattle, and Green Bay
Saints- One can never entirely count out a team with a future Hall of Famer at QB, but it’s quite clear that the heyday of the Payton/Brees era is over in New Orleans. Their defense redefined the word “atrocious” last year, but with very little cap space and copious amounts of dead money this year, they weren’t able to do much to address that in free agency. A 1-5 or 2-6 start to the season wouldn’t be surprising

NFC East:
Giants- The biggest problems for New York last year were a) pass defense and b) finding creative ways to blow games at the end. The Giants definitely focused on a) in the offseason, which will also help b). The NFC East was otherwise winnable for the Giants last year- if their improved defense can keep them from squandering the lead in a few more games, the division is well within reach
Redskins- Last year’s division champs enter the season with some big questions. Can Kirk Cousins continue his steady performance of last year, when he lead the league in completion percentage? Did they do enough in the offseason to address their porous run defense? If the Giants (or Cowboys) play more to their potential, Washington is going to have a tough time repeating. Newcomer Josh Norman gets to handle Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, and Odell Beckham Jr in the first three weeks of the season
Cowboys- Losses on defense and a strong potential for injuries, especially to Tony Romo, can once again affect playoff prospects in Dallas. If they can keep their blue chip players healthy, they will remain in contention
Eagles- There’s a fair amount of uncertainty in Philly- the team underwent plenty of roster turnover under Chip Kelly, and are now starting a new regime. While they have talented players around the roster, they also have the worst starting quarterback in the division

AFC West:
Chiefs- Kansas City rode a ten-game winning streak into the playoffs last year, and this year they bring back a very good defense, one of, if not, the deepest stable of running backs, and a quarterback that takes care of the ball. Many of the veterans have played together for a few years now: this is a strong roster looking to make a deep run
Raiders- Oakland is on the rise, hoping to build on last year’s success with a very busy offseason. The Raiders have a good chance to improve their out-of-conference record, but more importantly, they need to fix their 4th quarter woes and start stepping up against good teams. They have some winnable games early on, and could build on a strong start to compete for a playoff spot
Broncos- Whoever ends up under center for Denver this year will have a suffocating defense backing them up. What they won’t have, however, is the tutelage of Peyton Manning. Denver’s defense is going to have to continue to make game-altering plays in order to keep the defending champs in the playoff hunt. Last year’s team won it all despite their quarterback play, so the Broncos should still be considered armed and dangerous
Chargers- San Diego again joins New Orleans in the “you’d think they’d be better given who their quarterback is” bin. They lost every divisional game last year, and if they can’t find some semblance of a running game they will continue to get eaten alive by AFC West pass rushes

AFC North:
Steelers- As long as they can keep their power players on the field, Pittsburgh’s offense has a very high ceiling. They aggressively drafted to fix their pass defense, and the early season schedule has blessed them with their toughest opponents in the friendly confines of Heinz Field
Bengals- Andy Dalton had a great season last year, surprising many pundits before his injury, but now has to build on that success without the wide receiver depth he has enjoyed. The Bengals play four of their first six games on the road, featuring tilts at the Jets, Steelers, and Patriots. Cincinnati needs to avoid falling too far behind in the first half of the season
Ravens- The Ravens were bitten heavily by the injury bug last year- being healthy should immediately make them more competitive, but last year’s last season did demonstrate their need for greater depth at wide receiver and in the secondary. Until they can improve those areas, Baltimore will have trouble competing with Cinci’s depth and Pittsburgh’s high-flying offense
Browns- The perpetually rebuilding Browns are starting over again it seems. RGIII could have a reawakening in Cleveland, but the talent pool is too shallow and the division too deep

AFC South:
Colts- How well Andrew Luck returns to form will have huge repercussions for this team and the whole division. If Luck can’t regain his 2014 self and build on it, the Indianapolis could easily drop to third in a division seeking to lose its reputation as the NFL’s doormats
Texans- Houston has circled their week 2 matchup against the Chiefs- not only as revenge for the whooping they received during the playoffs, but as a metric for what kind of upgrade they received in Brock Osweiler. This is a playoff-ready roster, but (as they discovered last January) how the Brock Lobster performs is going to have a huge impact on their chances to make- or win in- the playoffs
Jaguars- Jacksonville has been building their team well, focusing this offseason on the defensive side of the ball, but have yet to prove it in the win column. An upgraded defense should help take pressure off of Blake Bortles and the offense, but the O-line has to do a better job of keeping their QB upright. If Andrew Luck falters and widens the door for Houston and Jacksonville, JJ Watt’s manhandling of the Jaguar’s O-line could cost a chance at the playoffs
Titans- With 5 picks in the first three rounds, a trade for an offensive lineman, and the signing of DeMarco Murray, Tennessee is building up their roster and looking to take some pressure off of QB Marcus Mariota as he develops. Significant progress in the win column is likely still a little ways away for this team

AFC East:
Patriots- The only time since 2003 that New England has failed to win their division was in 2008 when Tom Brady was out for almost the entire season, and there is no reason that they won’t this year too. Unfortunately for the Patriots opponents, the NFL’s decision to reinstate Tom Brady’s suspension means another year of Angry Tom and the Deflategate Revenge Tour. Week 1 will be tough in Arizona with no Brady, but that matchup is followed by three home games before they get their QB back for week 5 (R.I.P. Cleveland 10/9/16)
Jets- With better-than-expected play from Ryan Fitzpatrick and a strong all-around roster, New York nearly made the playoffs last season. If they can build on last year, a playoff spot is within reach in a crowded AFC, but the Jets have tough opening slate- four of their first six games are on the road, and five of those are against playoff teams from last year. The Jets feature one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, and are on pace to need cuts next year to stay under cap. The Jets’ window could start to close fast in the near future
Bills- Going into last season the Bills looked like a team on the cusp of the playoffs, and other than the seething mass of penalties that they racked up, Tyrod Taylor and the league’s top rushing offense held up their end of the bargain. The previously top-5 defense, however, fell to mediocrity. Buffalo needs better discipline and a return to better defense before they can be seen as a contender
Dolphins- Last year’s Miami team floundered, vastly underperforming their roster’s capabilities. Given their recent history and the mid-season dismissal of Joe Philbin last year, new head coach Adam Gase needs to establish a positive locker room before this club can realize any of its potential- but with trips to New England, Seattle, and Cincinnati within the first four weeks, this team could find itself in a hole early on

NFC Wild Card teams: Vikings, Cardinals
AFC Wild Card teams: ummmmm....ummmmmmm......Bengals, Raiders?

I swear these things get longer every time I write one up...

[xskarma]

@Gestopft I don't agree with your take on the Giants nor the Broncos, but everything else seems well thought out and reasonable.

The Giants have taken a MASSIVE step back in coaching and the Broncos still have way too much talent even without a QB to go 3rd in that division.

- - - Updated - - -

Annnd now Trevor Siemian apparently has soreness in his shoulder and isn't throwing. Apparently no one wants the Bronco starting job.

[Grube]

Siemian fell weird on his shoulder trying to tackle on his pick, it is why he only got 2 pass attempts after that. Still starting this week. Still with the 1s during running stuff today, just not throwing. Lynch got the 1st team passing reps, and had 3 picks, so all of his 1st team reps have been a mess. Kind of expected though.

Just so I can see how wrong I am at the end of the year:

AFC West
1)Broncos
2)Chiefs
3)Raiders
4)Chargers

AFC North - Steelers and Bengals same record
1a)Steelers
1b)Bengals
3)Ravens
4)Browns

AFC East
1)Pats
2)Jets
3)Dolphins
4)Bills

AFC South
1)Colts
2)Jags
3)Texans
4)Titans

NFC West - Seahawks/Cards same record
1a)Seahawks
1b)Cardinals
3)Rams
4)49ers

NFC North
1)Packers
2)Lions
3)Vikings
4)Bears

NFC East - If Romo gets hurt who knows
1)Cowboys
2)Redskins
3)Eagles
4)Giants

NFC South
1)Panthers
2)Bucs
3)Saints
4)Falcons

AFC Wild Cards - Chiefs and Bengals
NFC Wild Cards - Cardinals and Lions
AFCCG - Pats vs Colts
NFCCG - Seahawks vs Cowboys
Superbowl - Pats vs Seahawks

[Gestopft]

I don't agree with your take on the Giants

Whether due to bad clock management, bad defense, or just bad luck, last year's Giants (under Coughlin) ended up on the wrong side of many close games- some against very good teams. Though this could apply to many teams in the NFL, my impression (others may disagree- I could be wrong) was that the Giants played better than their record. If their offseason upgrades make them better at getting off the field on third down (biggest weakness), they'll set themselves up to lose fewer games in the last drive.

nor the Broncos

This was a hard/risky pick to make, but there were a few factors that ultimately led to the decision:
1) Not only did they lose both starting QBs from last year, but Payton Manning's brain was one of the most valuable assets in the league, even as his arm weakened. This loss won't go unnoticed
2) Since Manning puts his own touches on his offense, not only will they have a new QB this year that has to learn the system, but the whole offense will probably be a bit different without Manning at the helm
3) As amazing as the defense is, they will be under more pressure if the offense takes a step back (they were mediocre last season)
4) Most teams with sub-par or unproven QBs and a strong defense are on the cusp of making the playoffs at best- Jets, Texans (who actually made it last year but got creamed after winning a bad division), Bills from two years ago, etc. The Broncos winning a Super Bowl almost despite their QB play is an exception
5) Relying on the defense to constantly produce big plays isn't a sustainable method of winning. Their Super Bowl run was fantastic, the defense was stifling and game-changing, but it's hard for lightning to strike twice.
6) The Chiefs aren't going anywhere and the Raiders are getting better. The AFC West should be one of the very best divisions next year- sometimes predicting a division to finish the same way as the year before is riskier than predicting a big shakeup. Sometimes it's not

[Faltemer]

My guess for eventual record will only go on teams that I see making the playoffs, and I’ll put thoughts on a few of the choices but definitely not all.
AFC West
1)Chiefs – 12-4: They were on a crazy run last year, and that was without their star RB for a good portion of it (Although the backup did great). I see them
2)Broncos 11-5/10-6: They shouldn’t crumble under the new QB but I can’t see them not suffering because of it
3)Raiders
4)Chargers

AFC North
1)Bengals – 11/5: They’ll win the division and lose out in the first round again.
2)Steelers 10/6: Solid team, but without a lot of weapons this year. Still should be good, but will be another close race for them for the wildcard spot.
3)Ravens
4)Browns

AFC East
1)Patriots 12-4: They win at least 2/4 without Brady then an angry Brady returns and tears through the league for what might be his last run (Age has gotta kick in sometime, right?)
2)Dolphins: Will be close to a wildcard spot but just miss out like the second place AFC East team seems to be doing lately.
3)Jets
4)Bills

AFC South
1)Jaguars 10-6: Weak division, Luck has proven to be overvalued. Any of the first 3 could take this spot. Don’t see whoever comes first in this division having more than 10 wins. Jags are young and interesting and this might be their year.
2)Colts
3)Texans
4)Titans

NFC West
1)Cardinals 13-3: This team seemingly should be the best, they had the right tools last year, added some more this year. Maybe they’ll figure it out finally?
2)Seahawks 10-6: Their offense was much better last year plus their defense is still what it is. That being said they didn’t dominate like years prior, so I see them continuing to stay around 10 wins.
3)Rams
4)49ers

NFC North
1)Packers: They didn’t look great last year for large parts of it, but they seem to always win
2)Vikings: A small slide by them leaves them in a race with the Seahawks/Falcons for the last wildcard spot and they just miss out. They shouldn’t do worse then 9-7.
3) Lions: Losing Megatron hurts even though his use last year was limited. Jim Bob likely can’t continue to have that offense be that effective. I think they’ll go .500 or slightly better but don’t see a playoff spot for them, although one can dream.
4)Bears

NFC East
1)Cowboys 11-5/10-6: Another weak division, not expecting much out of here. If Romo and Dez stay healthy they should take the division but don’t see any playoff runs in their future.
2)Redskins
3)Eagles
4)Giants

NFC South
1)Panthers 12-4: Another solid year, they aren’t going 15 wins again. I think they have a much tougher schedule this year, and some of their weaknesses should be prayed on by someone other than the Broncos.
2)Falcons 10-6: Second playoff team
3)Bucs
4)Saints

AFC Wild Cards - Broncos/Steelers
NFC Wild Cards - Falcons/Seahawks
AFCCG - Patroits vs Chiefs
NFCCG - Packers vs Cardinals
Superbowl - Patroits Vs Cardinals, because I like the Pats and Brady and because it would be some sweet justice for Goodell who is just ridiculous.

I think the Ravens, Raiders, and Redskins have the biggest chance to way outperform what most are thinking they will do.

[dwightyo39]

Good. I prefer the Bills being written off before the season starts.

[Faltemer]

I like a lot of the Bills players. I don't like the Ryan brothers. Their personalities, coaching styles, and results tell me enough. I think without the Ryan brothers Bills would be 2nd in the division on my list easily.

[xskarma]

Good. I prefer the Bills being written off before the season starts.

I think the Bills will have an opposite season than last year. Last year there was all the hype and the team just never got it together, I think this year no one seems to think the Bills will do anything, and I think they are sneaky good and will surprise people.

Dareus is a loss, but there's plenty of reason to think the Bills will do well. Shut out of the Giants was pretty telling, even if it was a pre season game.

[Grube]

Since it has been brought up a couple times, the Chiefs 10 game win streak last year was somewhat fluky. They faced the Chargers twice, Manziel, literally 1 legged Manning (Chiefs got the ball in scoring position 5 times from turnovers), Landry Jones with Big Ben out, and Jimmy Clausen with Flacco (and it seemed like half their team) out during it. Would have only been a 1 or 2 game difference though, they were still good.

The Chiefs toughest games are almost all on the road while Denver's only playoff quality out of division road game is at Cinci, which will probably end up being the difference in the division.

As for the Bills, offense has never been Rex's thing, and Rob destroys every defense he touches. Just sounds like a bad combination.