What's going to happen to Ukraine?

[Kellhound]

Fallen how far exactly? Economy is projected to start growing even at current oil prices, ruble is stable, and so does political situation...

Your GDP is almost 1/2 what it was in 2013, and the Ruble is stable at 1/2 its value. You are basically saying "Good news! We stopped the gangrene and it only cost us one arm!"

[Schmittay]

Would be pretty cool if the Ukrainian army would stop bombing and terrorising it's own citizens though...

[Mihalik]

Would be pretty cool if the Ukrainian army would stop bombing and terrorising it's own citizens though...

Hahahahaha. Oh wait...You are being serious...

[Deleted]

Since you don't explain, well...

Well what?

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Russia might have something to do with it. Specifically with the impossibility to implement a reform program that would take several years to complete and would require the Ukraine to restructure everything from its legislation, infrastructure etc. It's a bit hard to do any of that when every second Tuesday Russia dicks with you, cuz reasons.

Or are we going to pretend again that Russia doesn't do any of those things?

Little Green Men Redux Pretend 3. The Electric Bogaloo.

Russia? Have you heard the guys lending the money? The reason is the corruption. At local level.

God when you see Russia you just lose it don't you

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Hahahahaha. Oh wait...You are being serious...

That's EXACTLY what the Ukrainian army have been doing in this civil war.

[Kellhound]

Well what?

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Russia? Have you heard the guys lending the money? The reason is the corruption. At local level.

God when you see Russia you just lose it don't you

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That's EXACTLY what the Ukrainian army have been doing in this civil war.

Its a civil war, its kinda hard to not attack one's "own" people.

[Deleted]

Its a civil war, its kinda hard to not attack one's "own" people.

Exactly my point.

[Kellhound]

Exactly my point.

It is also a given that traitors will be attacked during a civil war.

[Deleted]

It is also a given that traitors will be attacked during a civil war.

That applies to both sides

[jdbond592]

President Trump might just hand it over to loving Russia and strong Putin. I am sure his fans will see the wisdom in doing so

[Kellhound]

That applies to both sides

The state, by definition, cannot be the traitor.

[caervek]

Ukraine rearms leaving Russia and the west wondering wtf to do next?

How to they plan on rearming when they are bankrupt? The planes they scrapped were Russian built and they won't be given more, much of their military production was in the east, and you think the US is going to let a country in the middle of a civil war become a nuclear power again?

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The state, by definition, cannot be the traitor.

Technically it can if the civil war was sparked by a coup.

[Shalcker]

Your GDP is almost 1/2 what it was in 2013, and the Ruble is stable at 1/2 its value.

No, that's one thing - "ruble lost 1/2 of value" (and it was overstrengthened for quite a while). GDP only dropped a few percent in actual production volume - noone looks at GDP in terms of currency swings (for anything other then sensational headlines), or you'd have to constantly re-evaluate it for every country (including EU) as dollar strengthens or weakens.

You are basically saying "Good news! We stopped the gangrene and it only cost us one arm!"

No, it's more like "Good news! After being forced off 'foreign loans' meds and cutting oil in diet significantly withdrawal symptoms were pretty mild, and will soon disappear entirely."

[Deleted]

The state, by definition, cannot be the traitor.

That is... quite a bizzarre statement.

[Demise_]

Ukraine should give up on Rus controlled territory and negotiate piece with rebel controlled regions also. I am of the belief that if an area has mass uprisings, chances are that area should be its own country/be annexed by countries that can actually control the situation. Ukrane had massive rebel issues before Russia IMO. like that eastern politician that "won" presidency then got kicked out by western rebels. Pretty sure if rebels kick out someone I elected, I would hold some significant resentment to whoever replaced them.

[Kellhound]

No, that's one thing - "ruble lost 1/2 of value" (and it was overstrengthened for quite a while). GDP only dropped a few percent in actual production volume - noone looks at GDP in terms of currency swings (for anything other then sensational headlines), or you'd have to constantly re-evaluate it for every country (including EU) as dollar strengthens or weakens.

No, it's more like "Good news! After being forced off 'foreign loans' meds and cutting oil in diet significantly withdrawal symptoms were pretty mild, and will soon disappear entirely."

At best, Russia's GDP PPP is down no less than 10%. The smallest decline in GDP (constant international dollars) the past 2.5 years is larger than the biggest increase the previous 2.5 years. Plus, the trend line for the Russian economy has been down since 2008. The impact is hardly mild.

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That is... quite a bizzarre statement.

Not really.

[Ulmita]

Russia's economy is about to get a 1.5% real GDP growth according to Moodys (in 2017). Recession is over boyz. Almost back to 400$bl to reserves - Russia will be fine as Ulmita is saying from early 2014.

[Shalcker]

At best, Russia's GDP PPP is down no less than 10%. The smallest decline in GDP (constant international dollars) the past 2.5 years is larger than the biggest increase the previous 2.5 years. Plus, the trend line for the Russian economy has been down since 2008. The impact is hardly mild.

It never really "recovered" after 2008 crash (except for the oil getting back up part), and was sliding into stagnation regardless of what we did. But looks like it's still higher then it was in 2011, so "larger drop" doesn't seem to be true.

Ukraine created perfect pretext to set up tariffs against European good. Thanks for that we can get some legitimate growth in 2017 that will not be dependent on oil profits.

Same for foreign investments - ban of long term loans led to rapid reduction of corporate debt.

[Kellhound]

Russia's economy is about to get a 1.5% real GDP growth according to Moodys (in 2017). Recession is over boyz. Almost back to 400$bl to reserves - Russia will be fine as Ulmita is saying from early 2014.

Yes, it is fine with a PPP per capita about 1/2 of an advanced Western economy, even Greece has a higher number....

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It never really "recovered" after 2008 crash (except for the oil getting back up part), and was sliding into stagnation regardless of what we did. But looks like it's still higher then it was in 2011, so "larger drop" doesn't seem to be true.

Ukraine created perfect pretext to set up tariffs against European good. Thanks for that we can get some legitimate growth in 2017 that will not be dependent on oil profits.

Same for foreign investments - ban of long term loans led to rapid reduction of corporate debt.

That is what I said, the trend line has been down for a decade.

Aka, we had to jack the price up on European goods so much that people decided to buy inferior Russian products instead.

[Deleted]

Russia's economy is about to get a 1.5% real GDP growth according to Moodys (in 2017). Recession is over boyz. Almost back to 400$bl to reserves - Russia will be fine as Ulmita is saying from early 2014.

And how mutch of it is thanks to the big budget deflict?

[Ulmita]

Yes, it is fine with a PPP per capita about 1/2 of an advanced Western economy, even Greece has a higher number....

Who gives a shit about PPP. We are talking countries here. Russia is doing just fine. Their economy is better than 90 of worlds economies and much stronger than most European ones. Greece has a high PPP per capita because everyone and their dogs own 3-4 houses. But people properties and personal wealth doesn't mean a wealthy country =)

Russia has the third least debt in the world with close to 400bln USD in reserves. They are fine , quit posting things you dont understand

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And how mutch of it is thanks to the big budget deflict?

Their reserves actually grew this year =)
Their economy is actually kickstarting, at least thats what the funds are saying