Legion Theorycrafting [7.3, All specs]

[Azortharion]

The damage appearing to be too high is just a potential symptom, and it is not outrageous to think that some talents that are considered non-standard and therefore are rarely simmed are not implemented correctly.

[GT4]

Honestly, it doesn't take too much time to validate whether the engine simulates everything correctly (for all intents and purposes, obviously you can never be 100% certain there are zero bugs left) if you know how to go about it. Just takes somebody who knows how to do it and is willing to put in some time - I'd imagine this being a problem for SV which basically nobody plays or cares about.

[Effinhunter]

Which is why we resim frequently to try to get things right, and why it is so important to have two or more simulators (such as Simcraft and AMR) going with disconnected teams (both simulators having the same teams usually results in the same errors being replicated). Part of the scientific process is the need to verify and recreate findings by other teams. Theorycrafting requires many eyes and many recreations. The worst thing that can happen in theorycrafting is only having one tool or one source of information. You need more than two really. Competition and collaboration are important. Further, you need to obviously validate the mathematical foundations with observations of real world. SV is being used and tested by a very, very small portion of hunters and even a smaller proportion of the theorycrafters.

Also, theorycrafting is an iterative process, just like any other method but possibly formal verification (e.g., mathematical proofs). It's why when people make recommendations that crit > haste for MM because of some random stat weights from a 840/870 gear set, they can correct themselves later because they realize the sims are wrong or the way they had been simming or evaluating the sims was incorrect. We have to re-evaluate what we've said or done and other's results, and this is a good thing and people doing this should be appreciated and heralded. Sims are often wrong, and so are our intuitions. It's only by using the simulation modules thoroughly, and investigating their accuracy thoroughly that we can get a module that will work well for the hunter community.

This find in the SV implementation was expected. We all knew something seemed off, and there are going to be more finds like this. There always are. Kenny, Jade, Collision, etc. are pulling herculean efforts to give the rest of the community good information, but it's an iterative process that takes time. It's certainly unreasonable to think that everything could be perfect before even our first release of a raid in a new expansion with ability and spec overhauls.

[Azortharion]

I feel like we're saying the same thing.

[Kwaai]

P.S. If there are some good hunters with 13 traits of BM on the US-side that would be willing to run some dungeons with me, I'd like to see how close 13 trait BM is actually coming to MM. I have run with 12+ 845-849 ilvl 13 trait BM hunters in pugs and various other dungeons against 16-20 trait MM, and I have not seen BM beating MM like some are claiming it does. Our hunters have pretty much given up on 13 trait BM beating MM at this point (we've seriously tried very hard to make this work, even when pulling 10+ mobs, but the guaranteed Marked Shot proc on pull means that MM has some ridiculous burst as well and doesn't have to wait for Stampede). If you think you are pushing what is possible in BM, please send me a message if you have some time to test things out. I would appreciate it. Effinhunter#1904.

I think that in regular mythic everything dies too quickly for BM to really shine. The first auto of any pull is a guaranteed Marking Targets proc which seems like it might inflate MM's numbers. On higher levels of M+ I'd imagine that the consistent damage of Beast Cleave would be better.

But I have been experiencing the same thing. I feel like MM is much stronger than BM for basically everything atm.

[Sazda]

I feel like we're saying the same thing.

Posting in eacch others threads and everybody getting along - I almost started crying, what a world to be alive in! <3 <3 <3

[Deleted]

Posting in eacch others threads and everybody getting along - I almost started crying, what a world to be alive in! <3 <3 <3

hahahha ./10 x

[Effinhunter]

The hostility is really one way. I'm too busy to hold a grudge over anything like this. If my ban from Discord was lifted, there would be practically no lasting evidence of whatever the hell this was (other than anyone who wanted to just reread threads for popcorn purposes).

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Reruns of the staggered add sims on the first post. These have the SV bugfix included. I'll hold off on updating first post for today, so you can see just how much this fix has affected the sims. BTW, as I have said all along, these are EXTREMELY conservative on the MM side. They are running for 3 minutes for each scenario to normalize the add pack damage for CDs (Stampede and Trueshot have 3 minute CDs that mean 60s or 120s sims are kind of useless and skewed toward the CDs). However, this kind of sim doesn't do justice to the guaranteed Marking Targets proc on each new add pack pull with MM, and it also doesn't really mimic Bullseye's uptime quite like you can game it. Still, it's more useful than looking at a sustained add pack dps sim of 60s+ (which never happens because adds die off in a staggered manner due to health pool differences and other reasons--including group comp and how other dpsers burst cleave, such as havoc DH and ww monk).

A reminder: these sims were focused around looking at Mythic+ boss times and add packs. They are also looking at MM as a focus for artifact building and an offspec of 13-16 points put into either BM or SV for Mythic+ dungeon purposes.

Single Target, 180s +/- 20%, 50k iterations (1 boss pull), Simcraft Source


Two Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 2), 50k iterations. Simcraft Source


Three Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 3), 50k iterations, Simcraft Source


Six targets are running, and I'm going to just try to prioritize everything in the first post guide section first.

[Smog]

I think that in regular mythic everything dies too quickly for BM to really shine. The first auto of any pull is a guaranteed Marking Targets proc which seems like it might inflate MM's numbers. On higher levels of M+ I'd imagine that the consistent damage of Beast Cleave would be better.

But I have been experiencing the same thing. I feel like MM is much stronger than BM for basically everything atm.

It's pretty much this. BM is still plenty strong for normal Mythics, especially since at our ~850 ilvls we can pull 2-3 packs at once and just stampede it all down, but MM's more consistent burst allows it to keep up decently well and then perform much better on bosses.

At higher levels of Mythic+ where trash lives considerably longer is where you're going to see BM shine.

That said, @Effinhunter , Currently 848 with 14 points in BM (finished my 20 in MM a couple days ago). If you'd like to run a few heroics with me to see how things shake out, we can, but MM closes that gap (or passes it) even more in heroics due to even shorter fights. Even being confident that I am getting 98% of what is possible out of BM with my current gear, I'm almost certain a 20pt MM will outperform it or at the very least keep up on all but stampede pulls. I often switch back and forth while grinding heroics (primarily out of boredom), and I do not feel that BM is better than MM at any content currently in the game.

[Effinhunter]

Six Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 6), 50k iterations, [URL="http://effin.highfiveguild.com

[Azortharion]

Any particular reason for using improper BM multi-target talents for AoE again?

[Effinhunter]

That said, @Effinhunter , Currently 848 with 14 points in BM (finished my 20 in MM a couple days ago). If you'd like to run a few heroics with me to see how things shake out, we can, but MM closes that gap (or passes it) even more in heroics due to even shorter fights. Even being confident that I am getting 98% of what is possible out of BM with my current gear, I'm almost certain a 20pt MM will outperform it or at the very least keep up on all but stampede pulls. I often switch back and forth while grinding heroics (primarily out of boredom), and I do not feel that BM is better than MM at any content currently in the game.

Invitation is pretty much open to anyone. Yesterday, I ran mythic Black Hold and Maw with a random pug with no healers, just to mess around. We ended up having to switch a shaman to resto on the last boss of Maw to get through that initial tentacle phase, but he died immediately after in the first breath so we basically no healed the last Maw boss after the tentacle phase anyway. I went 13 trait BM for the first no healer run and MM for the second one. I couldn't keep up with the WW monk (who was very good) as BM, but when I switched to MM it was a very different story (he was still able to kick my ass on 6+, but everything else we were competitive). Would love to see how others are playing BM right now in dungeons because our hunters have just not been able to push BM as hard as MM in dungeons.

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Any particular reason for using improper BM multi-target talents for AoE again?

What would you like? I'm assuming you want the Mythic+ setup from your guide? E.g. this:

Level 15: Dire Stable
Level 30: Stomp
Level 45: Posthaste
Level 60: Bestial Fury
Level 75: Binding Shot
Level 90: Volley
Level 100: Stampede

I have been recommending Blink Strikes because of the various pet pathing problems in the dungeons. I've had pets get stuck, even in seemingly open areas, but I'll change talents with the above build included. Rerunning.

Edit: I'm replacing the single target BM talent profile with the one in your guide. I don't think ANYONE is going single target BM build in a dungeon.

[Azortharion]

I don't particularly care, I think the specs could be perfectly set up and I still think simming Mythic+ is a pointless pursuit, but either way it seems silly to go Crows as BM for Mythic+.

[Effinhunter]

I don't particularly care, I think the specs could be perfectly set up and I still think simming Mythic+ is a pointless pursuit, but either way it seems silly to go Crows as BM for Mythic+.

It's changed. I know you think it's useless (or maybe of questionable use), but if you have other recommendations, I'm listening.

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Single target with updated BM profile (Azor's Mythic+ build), Updated Simcraft Source File


Of course, on single target, that build is going to perform quite poorly. 2, 3 and 6 are running.

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but either way it seems silly to go Crows as BM for Mythic+.

Crows is actually reasonably strong in staggered add scenarios because of the reset, but the sims/APL aren't really doing a good job of taking advantage of it, so it's a moot point in AoE sims really.

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Two Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 2), 50k iterations. Simcraft Source


Two targets is still definitely not where that BM profile shines. 3 and 6 still running.

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Three Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 3), 50k iterations, Simcraft Source


For 3 target staggered, the build I had for BM AoE still appears to be 2nd best (only losing to MM's stock build), and again, we're not taking advantage of the Crows reset here on the staggered adds. Both BM builds do benefit from the way that I've setup the stagger in that Stampede will always hit the max number of adds in the pack for the full duration, so it's not like we're losing dps here from Stampede not hitting all adds (even though this is pretty common in dungeons if you aren't communicating with your tank or using Stampede at an unfortunate point that the tank needs to move and the stampede just sits there hitting nothing--very frustrating).

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Six Targets, Staggered, 180s fixed (3 pack pulls of 6), 50k iterations


Again, I'm not seeing that Mythic+ build beating what I have for 6 target with staggered adds. Granted, I haven't updated the APL in a while either, but I doubt there's such a major change that this selection could be lumped into "improper BM multi-target talents for AoE again". Let me know if I have something improperly configured. I'm more than willing to admit that I was an idiot for using this build. More importantly, I'm more than willing to change it to something more appropriate. I like that this build appears to have reasonable single target and has good performance as the staggered add pack scales. Additionally, blink strikes is really nice for the way that add packs tend to naturally spread and also how the terrain in the dungeons seems to gimp our pets. I'm sure you remember how much blink strikes helped in SoO.

Additional caveats: very conservative MM AoE performance due to not having guaranteed Marked Targets on 2nd and 3rd add pack and lower bullseye uptime than is possible. This is actually really important distinction if the stagger is not this long. Each of these sims allows for BM to cleave on all adds for half the add pack lifetime, even though this is extremely rare. In most big add packs, you are going to kill 1-2 within 10-20s and the pack thins really quickly, leaving a couple big adds up for much longer than the majority of the pack. However, sims are not reality. All we can do is try to make some approximations that give us a reasonable understanding of whether or not our intuitions are good.

[Smog]

... from Stampede not hitting all adds (even though this is pretty common in dungeons if you aren't communicating with your tank or using Stampede at an unfortunate point that the tank needs to move and the stampede just sits there hitting nothing--very frustrating).

But we're primarily talking about M+ here, right? Anything else, MM is pretty undeniably dominate, and thus makes BM irrelevant in that context. In any serious M+ group, not only will you have ample communication via your voip of choice, any tank worth their salt is going to bend over backwards to make sure mobs stay in Stampede. Assuming Stampede hits all targets for full duration in any situation that matters enough to be theorycrafted is not really a stretch.

[Effinhunter]

But we're primarily talking about M+ here, right? Anything else, MM is pretty undeniably dominate, and thus makes BM irrelevant in that context. In any serious M+ group, not only will you have ample communication via your voip of choice, any tank worth their salt is going to bend over backwards to make sure mobs stay in Stampede. Assuming Stampede hits all targets for full duration in any situation that matters enough to be theorycrafted is not really a stretch.

For the most part, I would say yes. However, out of curiosity, how are you guys setting up your mythic+? Now that the loot distribution is changing, we have less reason to stack the groups with 3 mail dpsers and 1 mail healer, for instance--which is what we were planning on doing with 3 hunters and a resto shaman. Instead, my groups are thinking of spreading things out a bit. For instance, we're talking about running with 1 DH, 1 hunter and 1 mage with a healer of pretty much any type now. A DH, as currently implemented, renders much of our AoE dps a sort of after thought, and it feels kind of silly to yell at a tank to stop saving themselves from a mechanic for a short Stampede when a DH is annihilating large groups. Why should the tank have to bend over backwards to help one class not be so frustrating when the DH is wrecking your AoE dps regardless?

Then, there's MM. Anything the tank does, I can recover from. If the tank has most of the pack away from an archer, for instance, in Black Rook, or if you have Dryads being jerks at ranged, or you have the stone pelters disengaging out of the AoE pack in Neltharion, MM doesn't have to yell about anything. Whatever the tank is doing is mostly irrelevant. At this point, I'm even using SW/Barrage in close quarters. I understand the cone. I understand where I need to stand, and I'm doing more dps. I'm just not seeing the benefits of BM in Mythic+ yet, but I have 13 traits invested, and I'll certainly try it out over and over again.

[Smog]

For the most part, I would say yes. However, out of curiosity, how are you guys setting up your mythic+? Now that the loot distribution is changing ...

Prot War, Holy Priest, BM Hunter, Fire Mage, UH DK

Why should the tank have to bend over backwards to help one class not be so frustrating when the DH is wrecking your AoE dps regardless?

Well, because one, DH aoe is getting nerfed soon, and two, you can never have too much dps? Like, just because DH can burst 50% harder doesn't mean that 1m dps stampedes are suddenly irrelevant. That's... kind of a really confusing statement that doesn't seem founded in the actual reality of running content.

Then, there's MM ...

Yes, MM has a vastly superior kit and mechanics for spread mobs. But that doesn't apply to most pulls, especially if you have the ability to chain stun, death grip, etc. On longer sustained fights such as Lv10 M+, especially with 18 points in BM for Surge o/t Stormgod (which you should have by that point of serious M+ progression), you're absolutely going to outperform MM over the course of an entire dungeon.

[Effinhunter]

P.S. Rerunning the spec comparisons at raid start section on first post

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Well, because one, DH aoe is getting nerfed soon, and two, you can never have too much dps? Like, just because DH can burst 50% harder doesn't mean that 1m dps stampedes are suddenly irrelevant. That's... kind of a really confusing statement that doesn't seem founded in the actual reality of running content.

Yes, MM has a vastly superior kit and mechanics for spread mobs. But that doesn't apply to most pulls, especially if you have the ability to chain stun, death grip, etc. On longer sustained fights such as Lv10 M+, especially with 18 points in BM for Surge o/t Stormgod (which you should have by that point of serious M+ progression), you're absolutely going to outperform MM over the course of an entire dungeon.

It actually applies to situations in each instance. Halls of Valor has several packs with ranged casters. Some can be interrupted but archers usually cannot be, and the tank moving to them would cause aggro of other packs. I'm not going to be running with a DK and assuming you will always have one is a bit... unreasonable. All that being said, Stampede has a pretty ridiculous north-south aggro range that can cause issues. It's not the perfect Mythic+ ability that people have been claiming it is. It's not wide enough to frequently cover all adds in a large pack pull with casters. If you have a DK that can actually mass grip, then I'll concede the point on that.

However, what has frequently been claimed is that BM has some super appropriate toolset for Mythic+, and from my experience, Stampede is not everything it is cracked up to be, and Beast Cleave's effectiveness right now is extremely overstated because of the staggered aspect of dungeons.

And if you think that Mythic+ is going to make add packs suddenly 6 strong for an indefinite period, you're crazy. We have 30-45 minute timers for all trash and bosses in an instance. The kill times I'm using in the sims are based around entry gearing into Mythic+. Once you and your group are at 855+, the situation you see in heroic/mythic dungeons right now is going to be playing out in Mythic+ up to Mythic+7, at the very least. MM is still going to have the crazy good toolset for quick bursts that kill the lower health mobs quickly (along with the kinds of melee dps you are bringing with you in your Mythic+ group).

P.S. We're all aware of how the Mythic+ is going to be gated to only drop 850 in first Mythic+ week, right? How many of you are actually going to be running this all the way through in the first week since the drop level is so severely gimped? And I mean like pushing it like many of us have planned? E.g. alts running different keystones to get lots of loot chances and such?

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The initial spec comparison for filling main artifact.

Single target, 450s +/- 20%, 50k iterations, Simcraft Source


Keep in mind I had been hoping to investigate APL changes soon. I expect this sim to hopefully change again this weekend some time (assuming I get some time to reinvestigate the APLs).

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Running the sillier 60s sims for 2, 3 and 6 with full CDs next.

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On second thought, let me rethink the spec comparison for 2, 3 and 6 sims. There's room to expand the talent selections a bit, similar to how I've done in the staggered add sims.

[Whiskeyriver]

I have read through all of this but am hoping that people that have tested EN can give some insight. 22 BM sims within 10k of 20 MM - given the mobility of BM vs the spread AoE ability of MM, would BM be competitive or does it get blown out of the water? I have 21 points in BM, and very much prefer BM, but have been seriously considering abandoning BM and dumping every point until raid opens in MM.

Also, it seems unlikely at this stage that I will be able to get 20 MM before raid opens - how does 16-18 MM vs 22 BM compare?

Thanks,
Whiskey

[Smog]

I have read through all of this but am hoping that people that have tested EN can give some insight. 22 BM sims within 10k of 20 MM - given the mobility of BM vs the spread AoE ability of MM, would BM be competitive or does it get blown out of the water? I have 21 points in BM, and very much prefer BM, but have been seriously considering abandoning BM and dumping every point until raid opens in MM.

Also, it seems unlikely at this stage that I will be able to get 20 MM before raid opens - how does 16-18 MM vs 22 BM compare?

It's not debatable for serious raiders. You need to be raiding this tier as MM. Even without Legacy, MM still has the much better kit and mechanics for EN.

If your guild isn't that competitive, and isn't that serious, then raid as whatever the hell you want.

Also, you probably don't need to sign your posts, as your name is immediately to the left in big bold letters.