Elvine gets third legendary.. AFTER supposed "fix"

[markos82]

You really should, also tell this guy - us.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/20749088056?page=1 that he was wrong while you're at it.


Do you know blizzard since yesterday? Absolutely nothing will be done about this, no compensation or balancing, D3 had issues like that many times during multiple seasons and they just decided "well, we can't change anything it will make more harm than fix stuff"

Actually its much easier to "fix" this, well it was but the race for World first just started, They fucked up big time, they now told us they fixed it but some players are still getting their 3rd before huge players base didn't even got their first.

[Deleted]

Well, you're the one understanding jack shit about statistics while claiming you know a lot, you should be more worried about yourself ^^

You still prove you're completely ignorant about what statistics are and how they work. Stop embarassing yourself, it's becoming cringe-worthy.

and yet anything proving your expertise on the subject has yet to be presented. stop being condescending and provide "the statistical analyses" we are all waiting for, jackass.

[chronia]

I don't think anyone is mad Elvine got anything.. he is a good content creator.

We are upset because we are paying for a game that has some broken code in it, gave some people some really desirable items due to a bug, adn it does affect our experience of the game. We don;t want anything taken away, just the bug fixed and perhaps some mechanism to balance the playing field.

Still wonder how it changes someones game experience when someone else gets something who might be playing on a total different server, in a total different guild and where the chance is very small that you ever even meetup in game.

Also every piece of software that exists out of more then a few lines of code has "broken code", its unavoidable and totally to be expected.

Actually its much easier to "fix" this, well it was but the race for World first just started, They fucked up big time, they now told us they fixed it but some players are still getting their 3rd before huge players base didn't even got their first.

that they fixed the bug does not mean that players who got 1 or 2 legendaries cannot get a 2nd or 3rd one before everyone else had one. It also doesn't mean that because someone got a 3rd after they fixed the bug the bug is not fixed. RNG will still be RNG even after fixing the bug.

[ZeroWashu]

I remember the good old days in Asheron's Call where we had the "Wi Flag". At first people disbelieved it and even the developers laughed it off. Still a few developers thought it might be real and they did eventually find it. In AC the "Wi Flag" made you the primary target of even freshly spawned mobs beyond any reasonable possibility, as in they would run past people hitting them to whack you. If you were seriously geared you could use it to your advantage

[markos82]

Well, you're the one understanding jack shit about statistics while claiming you know a lot, you should be more worried about yourself ^^

You still prove you're completely ignorant about what statistics are and how they work. Stop embarassing yourself, it's becoming cringe-worthy.

Again I do know more than you because my chance has increased because of Blizzards "protection" impelemeted for legendary drop thus giving me immensely higher chance to get 1st legendary if you compare it to his chance of getting 3rd and according to Blizzard getting 2nd was unlikely to happen in months, now we are weeks into the expansion and he got his 3rd before 90% or probably even more players got their 1st with that protection that is increasing chance. You really wanna tell me that yeah its RNG ( which it cant be due to increasing chance via "protection" ) and just a chance like you think it is. Tell me were you also firm believer that getting 2nd was just a rng/chance before Bllizzard officially stated it was their fck up?

[TriHard]

Well, at least we know who to sacrifice when the old gods come now <w< Elvine, you are not prepared

[Akka]

and yet anything proving your expertise on the subject has yet to be presented. stop being condescending and provide "the statistical analyses" we are all waiting for, jackass.

I could just tell you to go back to middle school or to use two neurons. Or to look at the Euromillion lottery and notice that sometimes there is a winner several times in a row, sometimes it takes monthes to have a winner.

But if you need handholding for even the most basic thinking processes, here it is :

Imagine a baseline chance of 0,01 % to get item A. Said chance improves by 0,001 % each time you kill a boss until you drop said item, then go back to it's initial value.
It means there is a 0,000 001 % chances that someone get three items A in a row by killing three bosses. It's extremely low, but over millions of people, it not only might happen, but is very probable to happen (obviously the droprate of legendary in WoW is even lower, that's only for example purpose).
At the same time, there is a massive probability (more precisely : (1 - 0,01) x (1 - 0,011) x (1 - 0,012), so 96,73 % chance) that someone has no drop of item A at all after three bosses.

So, what we have is :

Statistics :
- On average, 1 person out of 1 million will get three items A (operative words : "on average" ; in practice, it could have ten millions people and no one get three items in a row, or 100 000 people and five of them get three items in a row. That's what random is).
- On average, 967 360 persons out of 1 millions won't get any item A (hence the immense majority, hence for most everyone, no drop at all).

Random cretin on the Internet :
- THIS GUY HAS THREE ITEMS AND ME AND ALL MY PAL HAVE NONE, IT'S PROOF THAT BLIZZARD SYSTEM DOESN'T WORK, I SHOULD HAVE ONE IF HE HAS THREE !


NB 1 : It's an example about how statistics work. It's not supposed to reflect exactly what happens in the game, for the simple reason that we don't have any idea what the actual droprate and adjustement is supposed to be, and people kill widely different number of bosses, and so on. I'm just doing a quick and dirty explanation for people who can't wrap their mind around the concept of "random".

NB 2 : as I said before, it's totally possible that the Blizzard system, in fact, doesn't work as it should ; but a "proof" of it would require a statistical analysis, not anecdotal examples.

Again I do know more than you because my chance has increased because of Blizzards "protection" impelemeted for legendary drop thus giving me immensely higher chance

"immensely higher" != "guaranteed"
That's the very basis of statistics. That you're supposed to know, remember ?

[markos82]

"immensely higher" != "guaranteed"
That's the very basis of statistics. That you're supposed to know, remember ?

You should also know that there are millions of players with increased chance of getting legendary but they didn't got it, applying lottery chance to this is huge fail because your chance doesn't change from week to week it is always the same no matter how many tickets you get because for each ticket you have a chance to get winning numbers is 1 : xxxxxxxxxx while in case of a legendary you have a chance to get it in 1 : xxxxxxxx on next boss 1: xxxxxxxx + N where N = some random number Blizzard thought of. The only thing you do with more tickets is increasing the odds that that ticket will have winning numbers in order that doesn't matter.

Considering his chance was reduced after the "bug" was fixed back to a starting point ( or we can hope it was fixed ) where he has chance of getting 3rd in 1 : xxxxxxxx while the rest of us have 1 : xxxxxxxx + N x Y ( where Y = number of bosses you killed, caches opened and so on ), do you really think it is just due to chance that he to his 3rd before millions got 1st.
And still waiting for an answer, were you the one who as 100% sure that player who got their 2nd was just due to RNG/chance?!

[Akka]

You should also know that there are millions of players with increased chance of getting legendary but they didn't got it, applying lottery chance to this is huge fail because your chance doesn't change from week to week it is always the same no matter how many tickets you get because for each ticket you have a chance to get it 1 : xxxxxxxxxx while in case of a legendary you have a chance to get it in 1 : xxxxxxxx on next boss 1: xxxxxxxx + N where N = some random number Blizzard thought of. The only thing you do with more tickets is increasing the odds that that ticket will have winning numbers in order that doesn't matter in the end.

Considering his chance was reduced after the "bug" was fixed back to a starting point ( or we can hope it was fixed ) where he has chance of getting 3rd in 1 : xxxxxxxx while the rest of us have 1 : xxxxxxxx + N x Y ( where Y = number of bosses you killed, caches opened and so on ), do you really think it is just due to chance that he to his 3rd before millions got 1st.
And still waiting for an answer, were you the one who as 100% sure that player who got their 2nd was just due to RNG/chance?!

Read the rest of the post you quote. All the answers you ask are already in it.

[Deleted]

I could just tell you to go back to middle school or to use two neurons.

no need to hold my hand, nor did i ask you to light up my neurons (whateverthefckthatmeans-butitsok-iusefancywords)

your problem is thinking that this is somehow tied to some statistical analogy. it isn't. the sum is quite simple;

drop chance should have been drastically lower after the first drop; the opposite is true. even after the 2nd drop, allot of people (not just this example of youtube) got another AND another. you can give me all kinds of formulations, no need for that. the algorithm is broken.. although i am deeply sceptic about blizz flagging accounts for higher chance. basically if that where true, they would destroy their own franchise. this is not RNG. this is a BROKEN calculation and has nothing to do with statistics.

[Deleted]

You really should, also tell this guy - us.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/20749088056?page=1 that he was wrong while you're at it.

You know, here we have one confirmed drop of a third legendary oppose to the confirmed drop of hundreds of second legendaries to those who already had one.

[Zantos]

I'm still not convinced the legendary drop system is working to begin with. My only battle net friend who has a legendary just got a third as well.

[Xar226]

Chance is a bullshit word in this case. Do you wanna know why?

Because your panties have twisted so aggressively it is actually cutting off the blood flow to your brain? Seems at least as plausible as anything you've said.

Do you know what the odds of winning the lottery are? Yet it happens. Every few days, just for the lotteries in my state. Are you going to claim "But surely people don't win twice before I win once, the lottery is broken!?" I hope not, since it takes two seconds of Googling to find out people have done exactly that. And since you're a guy complaining about the variance of virtual loot distributions for people who aren't you, I'm going to go out on a limb and assume you haven't won the lottery yet. Fucking conspiracy, I tell you.

Do you know what the odds of getting hit by lightning are? Do you know what the odds of getting hit by lightning twice are? Now Google Roy Sullivan, who has seven documented cases of being struck by lightning and claims several more, or any of the other multiple lightning strike victims. I could go on and on with these improbable events that happen all the time, even multiple times.

Years ago, iTunes changed their random shuffle algorithm after complaints from users that similar songs or songs by the same artist were appearing in strings. Even though that is exactly what one should expect sometimes from a random shuffle. People were absolutely convinced it wasn't random because our brains love to find patterns and are absolute trash at understanding randomness. Steve Jobs, on changing the algorithm, remarked, "we're making it less random to make it feel more random."

Shit with incredibly small odds of happening happen all the time. It's called the Law of Truly Large Numbers. Two seconds on its Wikipedia page will give you this simple example: Something with a 0.1% chance of happening will happen at least one time in 1,000 tries in 63.2% of cases. If you try 10,000 times instead, it will happen at least once 99.9% of the time. And before you run off on some tangent about how 10,000 is a lot of chances, you've been claiming this whole thread to have had at least 2,000 all by yourself. Extrapolate that to millions of players and it's not surprising at all that low-probability events like getting 2-3 legendaries (remember that at least one of those was the result of a bug that made the event much higher probability than we expected as well) are happening.

According to Blizzard that shouldn't happen.

Where has Blizzard ever claimed that that shouldn't happen? If they did, they literally do not understand math.

If players got 2nd legendary due to a bug then Blizzard doesn't just need to fix broken code and "reset" their chance to same value as they had before they got 1st or 2nd they need to reduce it to even less so this shit called RNG doesn't happen.

But honestly, this sums you and most of the rest of the posters in this thread up with a single quote. You're so ridiculously jealous of it that not only do you want somebody's odds reset to the baseline--which it should be every time the event occurs--but actually want some kind of negative luck to punish them for it. Just fucking wow, man.

Nobody is claiming that it is 100% impossible that there is still a bug involved in the legendary drop rates. What we're claiming is what you were taught in third grade science classes: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. One dude getting something that "shouldn't" happen, particularly when it is easily explained how it not only can but should happen hardly rises to that level. It is entirely, 100% possible for the system to be working exactly as intended and still have these anomalies crop up. Welcome to randomness.

Unfortunately, I'm sure not a damn thing I said will convince you because you're dead-set on believing the opposite. ("B-b-b-but there was a bug last time we complained!")

[Enitzu]

I've known someone with 3 since week 1 ... yet I still can't get 1 lmao

[Zyky]

He's just really lucky, nothing more to it. There's always a case of someone winning the lottery twice or more, they don't debunk basic statistics.

- - - Updated - - -



Yeah, because plenty of high profile streamers who have put hundreds of hours into Legion so far are swimming in legendaries, right?

What an answer lol. They admitted to fucking up. Its probably still fucked up. I know a guy who has 4 legendaries, its not "lucky" when a company admits to having bad code.

[Maudib]

Still wonder how it changes someones game experience when someone else gets something who might be playing on a total different server, in a total different guild and where the chance is very small that you ever even meetup in game.

The known instances are a samples of what has happened on every server. While you may not care about server raid competition, it is a thing. While it may not affect your picking flowers, playing the AH, battling pets, or running Coren Direbrew for the umpteenth time.

This bug has caused an imbalance, imbalance that can skew raid progression, Mythic+ competition, PvP... etc.. things that are the REASON those people pay money to play this game.

Of course if changes THEIR experience... the real question is why, if it makes no difference to you, do you even care if those people who feel affected by it are trying to get some level of balance restored. Some level of trust that the bug has indeed been fixed properly? Some reassurance that each time they DON'T get a legendary drop it's not due to a bug.

If it doesn't bother you that some people have received 3+ legendaries due to a bug while you haven't gotten one... fine. I perfect respect that. The thing is.. there is a line that people draw. What if you ran dungeons for a whole year, and never got a single drop... but everyone else got a drop off every boss? Then you find out it was because of a bug. It doesn't affect your gameplay.... you still had fun doing hte activity... why should you care if everyone else got loot and you didn't?

I know that is an extreme example... but at what point do you go from caring... to "It's not a big deal?"

All you need to concern yourself with is, obviously to a lot of people the legendary bug IS a big deal even if it isn't to you.

[Deleted]

Unfortunately, I'm sure not a damn thing I said will convince you because you're dead-set on believing the opposite. ("B-b-b-but there was a bug last time we complained!")

you sound like someone who wanted to get allot of his chest. unfortunately, you'r the one bitchslapping yourself. the discussion is about a broken system and why this should get fixed and fckin pronto. all you do is focus on him personally. although he could express himself less ambiguously. again a fail of an epic proportion by blizzard. they should remove all the second and third legendaries from those players or eat shit.

[Deleted]

You know, here we have one confirmed drop of a third legendary oppose to the confirmed drop of hundreds of second legendaries to those who already had one.

Because the guy who got it is well known? How many people who just play the game are the same but we just don't hear about them?

[MrKnubbles]

It's only a big deal because the cap will eventually be raised, and these people will instantly have a huge advantage over others

And you don't think it's possible that others will find more legendaries within this time frame?

Now, for plebs like you and me who don't have a single one

I do have one actually. All my friends do. Give it time and you'll get yours. Everyone will.

[chronia]

The known instances are a samples of what has happened on every server. While you may not care about server raid competition, it is a thing. While it may not affect your picking flowers, playing the AH, battling pets, or running Coren Direbrew for the umpteenth time.

This bug has caused an imbalance, imbalance that can skew raid progression, Mythic+ competition, PvP... etc.. things that are the REASON those people pay money to play this game.

I sincerely doubt this bug, while i agree its unfortunate is going to cause any big imbalance. The number of ppl that profited is relatively small as far as i can see, i know of 5 or 6 ppl on my servers top 4-5 guilds, but a few of those are not even raiders, and in the near future wearing 2 is not even a option. Sure the extremely lucky can mix it up per boss if they got 2 useable ones but even then it should not influence the progress race at all. Let alone the examples of the players that got 2 situational ones, or ever 2 bad ones (Neck and Ring come as a example), if those stats don't fit you they are not going to make any big differences on bosses and might not even be used since ilvl 840 rings and necks can be better itemized for alot of classes. If half the players got 2-3 or more legs, and the other half of the players 0 sure, it could be a big influence. But the number of players that actually profited seem to be a real low % of players, with a even lower % of players that actually got 2 that boosts their dps in different situations or boost their dps/healing/tanking at all.

Of course if changes THEIR experience... the real question is why, if it makes no difference to you, do you even care if those people who feel affected by it are trying to get some level of balance restored. Some level of trust that the bug has indeed been fixed properly? Some reassurance that each time they DON'T get a legendary drop it's not due to a bug.

Why wouldn't you trust that the bug is fixed, i am seeing close to 0 reports of reports of players getting a 2nd or 3rd after the hotfix. Also the first legendary droprate did not even seem to be affected (atleast no proof has been offered at all) so not getting one should not even be related to the bug at all and no assurance or reassurance should be needed, unless some proof actually comes out that first time drops were also affected.

If it doesn't bother you that some people have received 3+ legendaries due to a bug while you haven't gotten one... fine. I perfect respect that. The thing is.. there is a line that people draw. What if you ran dungeons for a whole year, and never got a single drop... but everyone else got a drop off every boss? Then you find out it was because of a bug. It doesn't affect your gameplay.... you still had fun doing hte activity... why should you care if everyone else got loot and you didn't?

I know that is an extreme example... but at what point do you go from caring... to "It's not a big deal?"

All you need to concern yourself with is, obviously to a lot of people the legendary bug IS a big deal even if it isn't to you.

Sure in a situation like that you would care, because it is actively affecting you. As you arent getting anything due to a bug. But if a lucky few get something you didn't due to a bug it should not really change to much. In the end everyone will have a few if not all, seeing the report that nighthold is tuned around having atleast a some legendaries going around in every guild should support that, as well as the classhall perk to be able to use 2.