Originally Posted by
Skroe
We've actually been over this like sixteen times.
The 2% number is irrelevant without fundamental European continenet wide procurement and efficiency reform.
On procurement, many countries in NATO produce duplicate pieces of equipment and finance them out of their budgets that are overall already smaller because of smaller populations. But a boat is still a boat, and a plane is still a plane no matter who is building it, the US or Europe. Right now the UK and France are both starting independent programs to build a new 6000 ton warship class that they call a "frigate". They will spend approximately half of their budget on these things on R&D and half on production. This is how the winnowing of European defense has happened - modern platforms got more expensive so they replaced 20 of an older model with 10 of a modern model, and variations on that theme. Even in the British Army for example... modern troops cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to train, equip and employ. So the Army has shrunk to below 100,000.
The solution is to stop expecting AND allowing countries with populations of 20 million, 30 million and 60 million to fund programs and have military forces that are independent 1/2 to 2/3rds scale American analogs. Europe's GDP is larger than the US. THe European Union is tremendously wealthy. It spends $300 billion per year on defense, most of it continental defense. But the rendundancy in defense on this issue alone (and there is a second one) blunts it's power.
All of Europe should buy one 6000 ton warship class.
All of Europe should buy one Strike Aircraft to replace the Panavia Tornado.
All of Euripe should fly one class of cargo and tanker aircraft.
All of Europe should use the same small arms, the same communications equipment.
All of Europe should buy the same tank.
So on and so forth.
So why doesn't this just happen? Well to a degree - a limited degree - it does. The Eurofighter is proof of that. But those are the exception, not the rule, and the fact is, France left the Eurofighter program and spun off the Rafale. Why? Well it explains why it hasn't "just happened", because this kind of Consolidation means the effective end of independent German warship building, French tank building and British aircraft building. Instead British defense dollars for new ships will go to French communities while German defense dollars go to British Communities. It won't be equally distributed. it can't be. In the US, states widely vary in the defense dollars they get (and why).
There is zero point in asking Europe to "pay more" without this being rectified, period. We'll get no more hard assets out of it.
The second reason is independent military capacity. Collectively the military forces of Europe are larger than the United States in terms of manpower (but not equippment by a long shot). But the 28 allies have 28 command staffs, 28 navies, 28 planning centers, 28 air forces. The biggest part of NATO - Allied Command for Transformation (ACT) - works overtime standardizing all these. But the fact remains, Europe right now is akin to what would have happened if American Revolutionary war era state militias carried on to the present day. Every country does not need to have it's own Tank divisions, for exampke.
The solution is obvious - talked about in another thread - that the European Union create a unified European military and that NATO transform into the alliance between that organization and the United States rather than the US, Canada and 26 European countries. However that route is deeply politically fraught for Europeans as we've seen, and it is also one of those "globalist" actions that Donald Trump and his legion of losers have spent a great deal of energy denouncing.
That's how you fix NATO. The money is secondary. Should Europe spend more? Yes. But that's the symptom, not the cause. The cause is a 21st century warship costs a lot more than a 1960s era warship to develop, and then mass produce, so Euripean countries buy fewer of them, while not consolidating their programs, which means they have to buy even fewer in order to move on to the next program.
But then there would be tremendous efficiency if the US got involved as well. The US has a need for a 4500-6000 ton "frigate" since the LCS is a joke. Rather than build it's own, it should just buy European. And then sell Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyer tech to Europe like we do Japan and South Korea (and we do some European countries too). But that would effect a lot of jobs.
But cut through it all, it comes down to this: we need their friendship... their access, their people. We don't need their stuff. That is why our NATO allies matter. Hell if push came to shove and Russia made a move into Europe, the irony of NATO is that the US would be the one to stall activating Article V, in order to give Russia a way out without escalating the conflict, and to keep Europe out of the fighting.