Legendary Drop Rate Bug. Clearly Blizzard "Fixed" It ;)

[Deleted]

10 milion players? Since when we pull numbers out of our asses? Last time this game had 10 milion players Lich King was still blue eyed not orange.

[Zka]

wow! 7 cases in 10 million players!

Yeah, exactly. NOBODY has any proof without scanning the whole fucking armory. All these topics are pathetic.

[Deleted]

With the emergence of these it looks to me more like a different bug.

The bug you are reffering to increased the chance of someone getting the next legendary in a following roll, but this looks a lot like the same roll is being used for both mythic+ caches at the same time; resulting in both caches dropping a legendary.

Regardless of that one can still write this off as RNG with a pretty high probability of not being wrong.

[thilicen]

And pointless shit like this thread is not doing anything. Out of millions of players, ofc some will get really lucky while others won't...
Only ones who can actually see any pattern or statistics is blizzard themselves, no matter how much people post their "cold hard proof".

Ah yes, I remember people saying shit like this literally 15 minutes before Blizzard fucking confirmed it.

And Bull. Shit. to that last part. It was the players who figured out they had shit straight at a turbocharged fan the first time, they even said so themselves.

[Eurhetemec]

You've posted one image which proves absolutely nothing other than extreme RNG - I'll show you an excerpt from my Armory.



I didn't even farm Rivendare that day, it dropped for my Hunter alt which I leveled through LFD. So not only it dropped, but I won a roll against 4 other people. Absolutely delighted, I went to farm all the other mount bosses, 2 of them successfully.

Does it mean that getting a mount out of the boss increases the chance of getting another? No, just sick RNG.

Blizzard admitted they had a problem, but they confirmed it's fixed and most likely what we see now is desperately trying to see a pattern by combining borderline cases (remember how many people play the game). Another example - during the first 3 days of Brewfest I've seen several images on Reddit where people would get both mounts and a remote out of one Coren's container. It doesn't mean anything again, just incredible luck.

The problem here is Blizzard's history of "confirming" that bugs which aren't trackable player-side are "fixed" is not a good one. Literally every expansion has non-player-side bugs which Blizzard claimed were fixed, only for it to turn out, much later, that they were not.

Vanilla was particularly bad for this, with countless "We fixed this" "We think you didn't but can't prove it..." followed by a few months later "We fixed this" (often without even admitting they failed to fix it the first time), I note, so they have improved, but still, it's very hard for people to trust them on this, especially when you see stuff like this going on.

[MatthewOU2015]

Totally fixed

[Eurhetemec]

And some people's blind willingness to believe that Blizzard is fucking with that at every corner does not get you?

Yeah, would be cool if they provided the drop rate samples you asked for. Would that change anything? I mean, people kept insisting they doctored their sub numbers and thus their quarterly reports....something that could actually land you in serious trouble with the law.

Both extreme positions are unhelpful, I agree, but at the same time, the more you obfuscate a mechanic, the less people will trust you about it. Sure, there will always be loonies who claim "BLIZZ JUST LIE!!!", but this isn't that issue. This isn't a case of Blizzard lying. It's a case of either:

1) Blizzard fixing something but the mechanic working in such a way that it's still very "rich get richer" (i.e. the legendary chances are wildly wildly higher for high-end content and geared players), without them having made that clear, which is fine of course, but bound to cause some concern.

or

2) Blizzard thinking, quite honestly, that they've fixed it, but not having fixed it.

They could convince most people, except the real fringe crazies (who are, again, not the problem here), by being a bit more up-front about the mechanics. Last I heard, we didn't even know for sure where and what could drop Legendaries. Certainly WoWhead has inconsistent information on the subject. Even that would be a step towards trust. If they also explained, without using numbers, what the mechanics were, perhaps it would be easier to accept that Ubergeared Dude #1214 really did luck into his forth Legendary or whatever, because maybe high-end content really does give THAT much higher of a chance.

[Super Kami Dende]

What I find hilarious is people talking about Bad luck protection after only 3-4 WEEKS They said there would be bad luck protection, but it could very well be at most .5-1% increase chance each week. meaning you are still a long way off being guaranteed anything.

Fucking people and their Gamblers Fallacy. "OMG I'VE DONE THIS 100 TIMES IT SHOULD HAVE DROPPPED!!" No. because each time you didn't get it, your chance didn't increase.

[Deleted]

Ah yes, I remember people saying shit like this literally 15 minutes before Blizzard fucking confirmed it.

And Bull. Shit. to that last part. It was the players who figured out they had shit straight at a turbocharged fan the first time, they even said so themselves.

And you honestly think that blizzard are not keeping an eye on this now after the massive shitstorm it caused last time? You think they just "hurr durr, now it's fixed, moving on..."?

Yeah, not the players shitposting in the forums, but players who actually looked at drops, gathered reliable data and pointed those out in reports to blizzard. Which is nothing like these posts.

[Choda]

I am sure after Blizzard goes "oops, we did it again" and "fixes" the bug again everyone here who's been throwing insults at people left and right will man up and apologize.

Naaah...

[thilicen]

And you honestly think that blizzard are not keeping an eye on this now after the massive shitstorm it caused last time? You think they just "hurr durr, now it's fixed, moving on..."?

Yeah, not the players shitposting in the forums, but players who actually looked at drops, gathered reliable data and pointed those out in reports to blizzard. Which is nothing like these posts.

Of course they are keeping an eye on it, that does not mean it's fixed. People trying to shut down others who are still looking for stats/evidence to show it to be the one way or the other aren't helping at all.

[vlobben]

Of course they are keeping an eye on it, that does not mean it's fixed. People trying to shut down others who are still looking for stats/evidence to show it to be the one way or the other aren't helping at all.

The only usable statistics are the internal stats blizzard sits on, and they will never share that with the public. Documenting anecdotes doesn't do much other than convince them to examine it further, and it's highly unlikely that they aren't already keeping an eye on this.

[Wild]

sooner or later, we will all get our legendary.

[Deleted]

What I find hilarious is people talking about Bad luck protection after only 3-4 WEEKS They said there would be bad luck protection, but it could very well be at most .5-1% increase chance each week. meaning you are still a long way off being guaranteed anything.

Fucking people and their Gamblers Fallacy. "OMG I'VE DONE THIS 100 TIMES IT SHOULD HAVE DROPPPED!!" No. because each time you didn't get it, your chance didn't increase.

I find it hilarious that you missed the point. It's not about getting the first legendary, it's about getting 2 and 3 in a fraction of a time you need to get the first time which accordign to blizzard shouldn't happen (and also according ot them it should be fixed after it was broken)

[vlobben]

It's not about getting the first legendary, it's about getting 2 and 3 in a fraction of a time you need to get the first time which accordign to blizzard shouldn't happen (and also according ot them it should be fixed after it was broken)

That's not how the system is supposed to work at all..

[Deleted]

Guild mate got two legendaries yesterday

[schwarzkopf]

I'm here as one who has called RNG for a few people getting two legendaries - the numbers add up to that being reasonably ok.

However... when I found out one toon got THREE in two days, the numbers are now no longer so 'sure' of a true RNG.

With that one outlier, there is a probability in the 90% range that there is still a bug.

Not sure if I can point to the person - due to forum rules, but yes ... THREE in two days is an outlier.

[Eurhetemec]

Is there still an API to gather data from the Armory? I mean, I presume there is, given Simple Armory still exists.

If so, would it be possible to just scan the Armory and see how many people have looted 1, 2, 3 and so on Legendaries? Be particularly good if it could treat all Legendaries looted pre-fix as "one Legendary".

It seems like if the numbers of people who have looted 2+ Legendaries are significant like, say, 20 or 30% of all Legendary-owners or more, then that would indicate that either:

A) Blizzard have not, in fact, fixed the problem.

or

B) Legendaries are nowhere near as "RNG from anything" as Blizzard have suggested, and instead are perhaps massively more likely to be found in certain content.

You could eliminate B by then looking at where the Legendaries were looted, if that's possible.

[thilicen]

The only usable statistics are the internal stats blizzard sits on, and they will never share that with the public. Documenting anecdotes doesn't do much other than convince them to examine it further, and it's highly unlikely that they aren't already keeping an eye on this.

The bug was first of all discovered because players kept looking into it, they confirmed that. And it's not the first time. I'm not saying they will definitely find something but if people aren't looking it will never be found, period. The legendary bug (if it is fixed) would still be around if it hadn't been continously pointed out.

[Deleted]

That's not how the system is supposed to work at all..

So how it should work according to you?