Crime in America’s big cities is almost universally falling

[GennGreymane]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...ersallyfalling

DURING the presidential debate on September 26th Donald Trump, the bombastic Republican nominee, was asked by the moderator how he might heal the divide between African-American communities and the police. “We need law and order”, he replied, “We have a situation where we have our inner cities, African-Americans, Hispanics, are living in hell because it′s so dangerous. You walk down the street, you get shot.”

At first glance Mr Trump could be forgiven for thinking the situation is dire. Fresh data released by the FBI on the same day as the debate show that America’s murder rate increased by 10% in 2015 compared with the previous year. The violent-crime rate was up by 3%. Despite this uptick, the longer-term trend is far rosier. The prevalence of murder has halved since the early 1990s and, with the exception of last year’s figures, violent crime remains at its lowest level since 1971. Property crime fell over that period, too.

Mr Trump’s concerns about inner cities also look overblown. Of the 15,696 murders last year, 4,054 were committed in one of America’s 30 largest cities. That tally represents 26% of the national total, down from 29% in 2005. And the change in the crime rate for those cities between 2004-05 and 2014-15—using two years of data makes comparisons more reliable—shows improvement across the board: murder, violent crime and property crime fell almost universally. America’s cities have indisputably been getting safer.

The outliers are few. In El Paso, Texas, murders are so rare that its 33% increase in the homicide rate constitutes a total of six additional deaths. In Chicago, the focus of many of Mr Trump’s assertions, the murder rate in 2014-15 was little changed from ten years ago. Although the number of killings in Chicago has indeed jumped by 50% year-on-year, it remains the exception rather than the rule.

As an urbanite, Mr Trump should be well aware of these gains. In his home city of New York, 2,245 people were murdered in 1990. Last year that figure was 352. But, as the debate showed, Mr Trump’s grip on the truth is tenuous at times. Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, was on firmer ground when she acknowledged that “race remains a significant challenge in our country”. A staggering 27.6% of America’s murder victims last year were African-American men aged between 17 and 33, a group that makes up just 1.7% of the population as a whole.

[Ave07]

Thanks to section 8, criminals now live in the suburbs.

[Tennis]

Didn't Mr Trump say that Chicago was like a warzone last night?

[Damajin]

That Hillary quote is about as vague and nondescript as it could get, holy shit.

race remains a significant challenge in our country

Thanks for that brilliant insight there.

[Dextroden]

That Hillary quote is about as vague and nondescript as it could get, holy shit.



Thanks for that brilliant insight there.

And it will remain as such as long as politicians need votes based on "repairing race relations".

[Hooked]

Thanks to section 8, criminals now live in the suburbs.

Exactly, they have pushed them into my neighborhood and ruined it.

- - - Updated - - -

Didn't Mr Trump say that Chicago was like a warzone last night?

It is a warzone, Chicago is on pace for 650 homicides this year.

www.heyjackass.com

[Sykol]

I like how they talk about blacks being killed despite being a low percentage of the population, but don't bring up the fact that they make up the vast majority of violent crime, especially against their own race.

[GennGreymane]

Thanks to section 8, criminals now live in the suburbs.

But crime rates are down in general across the nation.

[Deleted]

Is it like in Holland, where less people are reporting crime each year because the police has no time to look into it anyway?
And then the government claimes crime numbers are down?

[zenkai]

http://time.com/4423837/violent-crim...ng-u-s-cities/

Violent Crime Rising in U.S. Cities Compared to 2015, Study Finds

[Daelak]

I like how they talk about blacks being killed despite being a low percentage of the population, but don't bring up the fact that they make up the vast majority of violent crime, especially against their own race.

Isn't it so weird when you force people into concentrated areas to be excluded and isolated from the rest of society that criminal activity, drug abuse, and joblessness run rampant, I wonder how that happened in the US? Hmmm must be one of those questions we will never get to the bottom of, like how the tide moves in and out.

[GennGreymane]

http://time.com/4423837/violent-crim...ng-u-s-cities/

Violent Crime Rising in U.S. Cities Compared to 2015, Study Finds

What would really matter is a rise over more than just one year. For example



Notice there are a few peaks upward even when its declining overall. Like 2005 -07 saw an increase, but the overall trend has been downward.


https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/a...on-crime-rates

[zenkai]

Isn't it so weird when you force people into concentrated areas to be excluded and isolated from the rest of society that criminal activity, drug abuse, and joblessness run rampant, I wonder how that happened in the US? Hmmm must be one of those questions we will never get to the bottom of, like how the tide moves in and out.

Isn't it weird when you do this yourself when it fits your narrative?

[TZucchini]

Yeah. Most educated people know this. The long-term trend in violent crime and homicide is down significantly. This past year, it has increased very slightly. It's too soon to know if this is simply a blip, or the start of a long-term trend.

Calling our cities "warzones" is fear-mongering. Conservatives brains are very receptive to fear, scientifically speaking, and it's no surprise that politicians prey on this.

[Kraenen]

Yeah. Most educated people know this. The long-term trend in violent crime and homicide is down significantly. This past year, it has increased very slightly. It's too soon to know if this is simply a blip, or the start of a long-term trend.

Calling our cities "warzones" is fear-mongering. Conservatives brains are very receptive to fear, scientifically speaking, and it's no surprise that politicians prey on this.

Chiraq is a term made up by native black Chicagoans. Does the thought that police officers are "out to get black people" evoke any fear? Are you saying these people are conservative?

[Daelak]

Isn't it weird when you do this yourself when it fits your narrative?

US history isn't a narrative. Don't act so surprised when deliberately isolated areas like inner city ghettos and Native American reservations are shitholes.

[TZucchini]

Chiraq is a term made up by native black Chicagoans. Does the thought that police officers are "out to get black people" evoke any fear? Are you saying these people are conservative?

I said Conservative brains are very receptive to fear. I didn't say they're the only one's that experience fear.

[zenkai]

I said Conservative brains are very receptive to fear. I didn't say they're the only one's that experience fear.

I don't think your ideology matters, people fear stupid shit for different reasons.

[minteK917]

Heres the thing, Chicago has multiple times more homicide a year then my entire country. A friend from chicago on discord sent me a video of 15 minute ride around Chicago. At first i thought it was a GTA 5 video spoof. Black people argueing with cops, prostitute next to the street light shaking their asses, guy trying to run over someone in a parking lot, list goes on. All in the span of 15 minutes. Chicago is not a warzone, its worse, its a video game.

[Kraenen]

I said Conservative brains are very receptive to fear. I didn't say they're the only one's that experience fear.

Sure, don't get me wrong. Trump said Mexicans are rapists, but he didn't say Mexicans are the only rapists.