Legendary "fix" is pure BS - Real, hardcold evidence here

[Noxina]

What you and others don't seem to grasp that occurences of quite a few players hardly playing getting 1 or 2 legendaries while a lot of players playing a ton get none, players getting 4-5 within a couple of days etc. are not pure RNG (in the sense of every activity has a chance of X to drop a legendary). If it happens once or twice within a population of millions of players? Sure, can happen. But it happens somewhat regularly.

The legenaries in my guild are equally distributed between players with 2-3 days played who only do WQs and players who have 12+ days played with upwards of 50 mythic+ chests, more than 2 fullraid clears etc. This could be RNG if we only had 3 or 4 in the guild (e.g. it does not really matter if the chance to get one per activity X is 1:10.000.000 or 1:1.000.000). But we have 24 legendaries now and there is zero correlation between the effort invested and players having one.

And if that is the case, I would simply like to know so we could stop pushing for something that appears to be random in the sense that you cannot influence your chances at all.

Because it is random, a player who just dinged 110 and did his first mythic dungeon, got the same chance to get a legendary as the one who got 12 days played at 110. Random is random.

[Deleted]

This is someone with 870+, if we look at the people at this level(thru wowprogress), we see that about 98% of them already have at least 1 legendary, due to lot of farming of high level content. From that 98% we can estimate that the avg drop chance for their first legendary must be somewhere around 15%-25% per day. For some of them maybe even higher if they've ran high level mythic+ dungeons almost non-stop. Now if we use a moderate 15% chance per day, then the odds for getting 4 legendaries within 4 consecutive days is 15%^3 = 0.34%. Even if this is only very rough estimate, it's clearly not something "astronomically rare", considering there's 100's of people already at 870+.

Wow is full of bugs, but if you want to find one in RNG system, the only way is to use at least decent sample size and proper math. So far there hasn't been any proper statistical sign about a bug in this thread, only single occurances and not even really rare ones, and they're only going to cause unnecessary confusion and making finding the real bugs just harder. On the other hand, we already have some decent statistics around which pretty much prove that:

A) There are much more people with only 1 legendary, than people with 2+.
B) People who put a lot more effort(skill+time) in farming, their chances to get legendary are much higher.

That still doesn't explain why a lot of people get multiple legendaries in a short amount of time.

We are not talking about people getting 3 legendaries in 2 months because they farmed mythic+.

We are talking about a lot of people getting them in a row or even hours apart doing non hard content.

Case in point:

Today has been pretty interesting.

https://gyazo.com/5f36825001ede07bfc7551fcee043e55

Legendary robes 6 days ago.
Legendary boots yesterday.
Legendary cloak today.
Legendary waist today.

I spent ~8 days /played in the first week and a half or so of the expansion farming heroics and world quests non-stop. Then I got the robes from Heroic HoV.

Now I've gotten 3 legendaries in ~36 hours while running +2 Mythic carry groups in LFG. All of them have been from MoS lol.

Certainly seems like the bad-luck protection system is running in reverse.

[Dern]

It seems hard to grasp for people, It's like playing the lotto, most time you don't win! thats how it works.

They are coming from everywhere, i got mine from WQ dreamweaver chest, a friend of mine got it from a bear in val'shara, nobody else in the guild got them and we are 25+ very active player.

You will get it when you least expect it.

And for the RNG part well when you loot something you roll a dice to find out if your gonna get a legendary, imagine its a d1000 and the winning number is 3 how many time you will have to roll that dice to get a 3?? And over top of that to add frustration your budy keeps getting that f**ing 3, we all have that lucky friend who always get the good dice rolls when you play D&D or monopoly, what do you do then, call Milton Bradley telling them their game is broken because your never getting the number you want on the dice? Its the same thing in game you just got unlucky dice and your buddy who has 2-3 legendary has got the lucky one... life sucks sometimes...but its still not broken its random and sometimes randomness is not on your side.

I have gotten 2-3 pieces of gear for every mythic dungon i did before mythic+ came out we have cleared EN twice since it came out and i haven't gotten anything yet does that mean loot is broken in EN?

[Magemaer]

TToday has been pretty interesting.

https://gyazo.com/5f36825001ede07bfc7551fcee043e55

Legendary robes 6 days ago.
Legendary boots yesterday.
Legendary cloak today.
Legendary waist today.

I spent ~8 days /played in the first week and a half or so of the expansion farming heroics and world quests non-stop. Then I got the robes from Heroic HoV.

Now I've gotten 3 legendaries in ~36 hours while running +2 Mythic carry groups in LFG. All of them have been from MoS lol.

Certainly seems like the bad-luck protection system is running in reverse.

The system is still bugged. People don't win the lottery 3 times in a row.
And this is not a single case.

[Rafalga]

Just got my 3rd legendary, it's rng stop whining

yeah just like the last ti... Oh wait

[Halefire94]

I think (at least for me) the major problem is the system is ridiculously dumb. There is no way you can actively work towards getting that piece that many of us NEED as our specs are dogshit right now (Unholy).

[david0925]

I think (at least for me) the major problem is the system is ridiculously dumb. There is no way you can actively work towards getting that piece that many of us NEED as our specs are dogshit right now (Unholy).

RNG legendary is dumb but works fine if protection system is working properly.

Right now, we are really unsure whether the protection system is working or not (need large amount of data for this), but there -seems- to be a trend where you get legendaries more frequently after you get the first one, even if you didn't change your playing pattern. People have reported going very long without legendaries, but then starting to get them more frequently after getting their first. On the flip side, we have not seen many, if any reports, where people have gotten legendaries early on but have a long drought of them despite playing just as much. Granted, these anecdotal evidenec only works for people that play a lot, but this is the reason that some of us have doubts that the fail-safe system is not working, at least for people without their first legendaries. The doubt is further justified by Blizzard's first fuck-up that they admitted.

The whole "RNG and RNG" and "you can never get a 6 in 1000 rolls" neither brings anything to discussion nor shows that they understand statistics better than others, because brining up extremities certainly doesn't justify the entire distribution of whether the system is "working or not". This is especially true if a dice is supposed to become more stacked the more i lose, I will start questioning it when I lose more frequently than the people that have won once or twice, despite playing similar amount.

And before people start personal attacks, I have a legendary, but it's the system that interests/bothers me.

[Aydinx2]

What the hell is this? A quote from a Dictionary for Ignorant?

One's inability to predict something doesn't mean it's unpredictable.

What's there to predict? Do you even know what it is?

Even a coin flip can be argued to not be truly random.

A coinflip is random. It has a 51% bias towards the "heads" side, but it's still random.
If you're arguing that predicting gravity/flip strength/random gusts of wind can make it non-random, you're actually a moron.

[Glorious Leader]

I think (at least for me) the major problem is the system is ridiculously dumb. There is no way you can actively work towards getting that piece that many of us NEED as our specs are dogshit right now (Unholy).

The developers seem to favor non deterministic systems of progression. I submit that these are in fact far less popular and not well received by people at large. On the other hand everybody comes back to lvl...

[Deleted]

If this has been posted somewhere in here, it needs reposting.

[goblingirl]

Do you have any actual statistics to back this up or just the normal forum post confirmation bias to support the old vanilla rumors that have never had any proof and has just been denied by the developers every time?

Not anymore. It's 10 years ago now, and three PC replacements since then - we actually kept a spreadsheet of what dropped each week, and who was leading the raid. The patterns were completely clear - Player A could generate a raid where 40-60% of the loot would be Armor Type B. Lord knows where that thing went, though - gone on some dead hard disk years ago. Late in Classic, we actually used it to gear up some alts/newbies.

It wasn't reliable as to stats - only armor type. For example the people who could generate plate reliably would do so, but the plate could be either warrior str or holy pally stuff with int on it. But it was plate.

It changed for our guild when BC opened, whether they found a bug and fixed it, or simply rewrote part/all of the loot selection code, who knows. We weren't able to reproduce it from Kara onward.

[Noxina]

RNG legendary is dumb but works fine if protection system is working properly.

Right now, we are really unsure whether the protection system is working or not (need large amount of data for this), but there -seems- to be a trend where you get legendaries more frequently after you get the first one, even if you didn't change your playing pattern. People have reported going very long without legendaries, but then starting to get them more frequently after getting their first. On the flip side, we have not seen many, if any reports, where people have gotten legendaries early on but have a long drought of them despite playing just as much. Granted, these anecdotal evidenec only works for people that play a lot, but this is the reason that some of us have doubts that the fail-safe system is not working, at least for people without their first legendaries. The doubt is further justified by Blizzard's first fuck-up that they admitted.

The whole "RNG and RNG" and "you can never get a 6 in 1000 rolls" neither brings anything to discussion nor shows that they understand statistics better than others, because brining up extremities certainly doesn't justify the entire distribution of whether the system is "working or not". This is especially true if a dice is supposed to become more stacked the more i lose, I will start questioning it when I lose more frequently than the people that have won once or twice, despite playing similar amount.

And before people start personal attacks, I have a legendary, but it's the system that interests/bothers me.

As I mentioned earlier, I got my legendary the second week of Legion, and haven't seen another since. Been spamming M+, HCs, cleared EN on Normal and HC each week and done the LFR wing. I also did about every WQ the first week, and haven't missed a single Emissary quest. All this one two chars, and some more mythic+ on a 3rd one as well (but not much of the other stuff).

Just to point out that the "flip side" does exist. There is however a mage in my guild that got 3 legendaries in about one week, but this was after the so called "fix" went live.

[Magemaer]

If this has been posted somewhere in here, it needs reposting.

Haha this is amazing.

A coinflip is random. It has a 51% bias towards the "heads" side, but it's still random.
If you're arguing that predicting gravity/flip strength/random gusts of wind can make it non-random, you're actually a moron.

It amazes me that people that can't even grasp what random is call others moron.
There is no actual randomness in anything, there is only determination or free will.
It is only in the effort of predicting outcomes that randomness lies. And even there, it only happens when, for some reason or other, there remains indeterminacy.

[Rotted]

Or you know, create like I don't know, this is crazy idea - consistent system that you can work towards and the harder you work towards it the better reward you get? People would say "too much grind"? Like farming mythic+ all day for a rng drop isn't grind. At least you have controll over it, not like with rng that they aren't even sure if it's working correctly and twice already it wasn't working at all or was working in a total opposite way that was intended. I mean my idea is crazy, that means someone has to create something, that requires work. Putting everything into RNG is easy, it's lazy but it's easy, just make everything rng and stall as long as you can before userbase catches on that you have no intention of creating content.

I'd love to share you optimism, if only blizz was capable of doing anything right - http://us.battle.net/forums/en/wow/t...9186982?page=1 they admited they have no idea how this got past QA. Do you really believe they're competent of fixing anything if they deliver broken after broken systems? That's huge amount of faith on your side

Except theres a difference between something slipping by and fixing it once they know its there.

Picture it like,

Someone breaks a glass bottle of milk in your shop at the back around a corner when you go down to the basement. They leave without saying anything, the next person comes in and points it out to you. You don't just leave it, you go and tidy it up after its brought to your attention. Its nothing to do with having faith, also, thats a pvp issue not the pve issue as stated by the op. From reading that post, that seems a little more complicated, than just adjusting a standard drop rate bug

[lonely zergling]

So I got my first legendary (if follower items dont count) today after 16 days pure playtime. Selected wrong loot spec GG. <3

But I hope this triggers the legendary privilege buff.

[Tharkkun]

So by your logic any and all speculation is rediculous?

With no actual data, patterns, etc to backup the claims it is. All we have here is a few hundred people giving their experiences versus the millions of player statistics Blizzard has access to. We also know people are no longer seeing 3-4 drop a day which is what the original problem was. You could farm a specific dungeon that gave you a higher chance.

All Blizzard has to see is a .01% drop rate and things are probably in line where they should be just like rare mounts.

- - - Updated - - -

What you and others don't seem to grasp that occurences of quite a few players hardly playing getting 1 or 2 legendaries while a lot of players playing a ton get none, players getting 4-5 within a couple of days etc. are not pure RNG (in the sense of every activity has a chance of X to drop a legendary). If it happens once or twice within a population of millions of players? Sure, can happen. But it happens somewhat regularly.

The legenaries in my guild are equally distributed between players with 2-3 days played who only do WQs and players who have 12+ days played with upwards of 50 mythic+ chests, more than 2 fullraid clears etc. This could be RNG if we only had 3 or 4 in the guild (e.g. it does not really matter if the chance to get one per activity X is 1:10.000.000 or 1:1.000.000). But we have 24 legendaries now and there is zero correlation between the effort invested and players having one.

And if that is the case, I would simply like to know so we could stop pushing for something that appears to be random in the sense that you cannot influence your chances at all.

We know that more difficult content will increase our chance of earning a legendary. But Blizzard never said how much. It could be WQ .01%, Mythic dungeons .011%, Normal raids .012%, Heroic, .013%, etc, etc. I doubt it's going to a huge difference as Blizzard always keeps drop rates for these things low.

[chronia]

It also doesn't help that Blizzard openly admitted that they had a bug where the protection was only working for people who have obtained their first legendary, and that they have fixed it.

Is there actually any factual evidence for this? Af far as i know the only fact that Blizzard confirmed is that there was a bug with getting a 2nd (or more) legendaries after the first one. As far as i know there never was any confirmation that the bug was in the bad luck protection part of the code at all, let alone that it meant that the bad luck protection was only enabled after getting a legendary. For all i know all that is just pure speculation that some ppl are taking on as a fact.

To my knowledge no one (except the blizz dev's) knows even how the bad luck protection works, for example if its based on the number of legendary dropping activties that you partake in, or that its a fixed increase per day (to avoid ppl from burning themselves out by playing "24/7" in the hunt for a legendary). Or if it works in a totally different way, drawing conclusions on something we don't even know the inner workings of seems pretty bad to me.

The only 2 things i think that are knows for a fact are that 1. The base legendary droprate is higher for more difficult content (hence why top guilds got so many legendaries while farming M+, as its considered one of the more difficult game modes and fully repeatable untill there are no keystones left that can actually be completed at the current gear level), and 2. That at some point Blizzard acknowlegded there was a bug somewhere in the coding for the legendary droprates for players that already received one.

[avahle]

I got 2 legendaries in two consecutive days this weekend after not getting one since launch. There is something definitely wrong. This seems too big of a coincidence on the heels of what Blizz already admitted.

- - - Updated - - -

To my knowledge no one (except the blizz dev's) knows even how the bad luck protection works, for example if its based on the number of legendary dropping activties that you partake in, or that its a fixed increase per day (to avoid ppl from burning themselves out by playing "24/7" in the hunt for a legendary)

I mean I still see people do that and getting burned and/or turning apathetic. If Blizz didn't want players to feel bummed out or burnt out, they need to be honest and open about how the system actually works.

[Rakoth]

Blizzard has all the data. All of it.

Believe me, there is a data scientist at Blizzard who is looking into this very issue right now (because the community cares) to prove to himself, and others, that this is random, and that the bad luck protection is working.

Especially considering there was already a bug in this code.

[avahle]

Blizzard has all the data. All of it.

Believe me, there is a data scientist at Blizzard who is looking into this very issue right now (because the community cares) to prove to himself, and others, that this is random, and that the bad luck protection is working.

Especially considering there was already a bug in this code.

Blizz has lots of data true but they also have lots of issues they need to fix with it. They don't have infinite resources. It depends on how important Blizz feels this issue is to see if they will prioritize investing resources into investigating/fixing any potential issues that may exist with legendary drop rate.