Thunderfury Hunt READ THE OP WE FOUND IT!

[Maximilorian]

I'm confused. You do the EN pickpocket exploit, then exploit the thunderfury appearance (don't get the bindings) and now your calling for everyone else to get suspended and have their appearance stripped? Are you just upset they didn't drop for you??

I would be very surprised if anyone gets suspended or banned. I dont have nearly as many runs as some of the people in this thread but if i am suspended or banned when/ if the bindings to eventually drop (obtaining skins via "exploit") from this method I will unsub (new civ and battlefield out on 21st October anyway). Same reaction if they take the skin back due to the time people are mind numbingly grinding this out.

Mainly disappointed that the skin is locked behind RNG drops in dungeons, they could have definitely gated it behind something more inventive seeing how the skin is so iconic.

[Smeski]

410 runs and nothing. I think its .5 dropchance

411 runs and nothing in NL too.

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There is nothing else you need.

Take a look at math. We assume that the binding has a 1% dropchance.

If my math is right (what usually is). Then you will need:

log(likelihood to get the item) / log(dropchance)

log(0.1)/log(0.99) = 229 runs to get it 90%

log(0.01)/log(0.99) = 458 runs to get it at 99.99%

log(0.5)/log(0.99) = 68 runs to get it at 50%

Guess I only need 47 more runs for a 99.99% chance chat spam kappa123

[Deleted]

No, it is not chances! It is interval. The calculation says that you need 458 runs that you probably have it at 99,99%. It is still 1% at every run. And it could happen that you need more than 450 if you are very very unlucky. Dont take these 458 as "if I do that many runs the drop chance will increase". That is not the point. This is just an interval. It just says that data is binominal and probably 99% of people get it within 458 runs.

AND it is the interval for 1% drop chance. And this is not sure at all. Just my guess because a lot of people in the 20 to 80 runs get it.

[Smeski]

It was sarcasm m8

[Raxxus]

I would be very surprised if anyone gets suspended or banned. I dont have nearly as many runs as some of the people in this thread but if i am suspended or banned when/ if the bindings to eventually drop (obtaining skins via "exploit") from this method I will unsub (new civ and battlefield out on 21st October anyway). Same reaction if they take the skin back due to the time people are mind numbingly grinding this out.

Mainly disappointed that the skin is locked behind RNG drops in dungeons, they could have definitely gated it behind something more inventive seeing how the skin is so iconic.

Although I agree it's pretty lame it's just two low drop items. It IS similar to the original thunderfury quest, and I assume that's what they were doing

[Deleted]

It was sarcasm m8

oh sorry, english is not my mother language ;-)

[Shemmari]

148 Dargrul (AK6)
149 Ash'golm (AK7) started farming at AK6 but as soon as i learned today AK7 i got it from 2nd run, not sure if that matters but just in case this would benifit someone!

Thanks to every single rogue been in my groups and GL for the rest.

http://imgur.com/a/6kHGl

[Smeski]

148 Dargrul (AK6)

Trigger Warning

[Rgthreex]

I look at it like this it's a 50/50 chance you either get it or you don't

[Deleted]

currently at 306 runs in NL and roughly 40 in VOTW, no luck what so ever. feels like something is missing despite being ak7. its breaking my spirit

[gigglepies]

34 NL runs and I got it. 17 traits in Outlaw, only CoF and Dreamweavers revered, AK7. the other one will probably take me 1000 runs to make up for how incredibly lucky I am.

[Deleted]

I look at it like this it's a 50/50 chance you either get it or you don't

Nearly haha, it is 1/0 with 1 = 1% chance and 0 = 99% chance T.T

Damn this expension starts to suck hard.

Nerfed Damage
RNG with Roll the Bones
extremely hard rng with artifact

I hope it will get better soon haha.

[EverWoW]

currently at 306 runs in NL and roughly 40 in VOTW, no luck what so ever. feels like something is missing despite being ak7. its breaking my spirit

Many people feeling this. And then someone comes in and "confirms" it is just AK-gated but without having any proof.

It is a fallacy to say that AK is the only requirement just because it is *one* condition. It could very well be that some of the population completed a certain quest or did a certain type of behavior. And then when they reach AK-x and immediately find the binding (perhaps by coincidence), it looks like that was the only condition.

Not saying this is the case. Just saying no one can prove it out. Literally. Without a confirmation from Blizz, it's all just a hunch.

Has anyone reached 300+ then found a binding? Without doing much else?

I hope so. But again, just sayin.

[Bonshee]

In vault I pick pocketed an alcoholic beverage from one of the trash mobs. I drank this right before the pull of the Ash'golm that dropped my bindings. Clearly this is a trigger for the drop.

[Smeski]

I look at it like this it's a 50/50 chance you either get it or you don't

Yup. I look at it the same way. Anything less than 100% is 50/50 kappa

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Many people feeling this. And then someone comes in and "confirms" it is just AK-gated but without having any proof.

It is a fallacy to say that AK is the only requirement just because it is *one* condition. It could very well be that some of the population completed a certain quest or did a certain type of behavior. And then when they singer AK-x and immediately found the binding, it looked like that was the only condition.

Not saying this is the case. Just saying no one can prove it out. Literally. Without a confirmation from Blizz, it's all just a hunch.

Has anyone reached 300+ then found a binding? Without doing much else?

I hope so. But again, just sayin.

I'm at 435 NL runs, seen 13 bindings and received 0 in here. Got 1 binding from Vault in 18 runs.

[ymirsson]

Many people feeling this. And then someone comes in and "confirms" it is just AK-gated but without having any proof.

It is a fallacy to say that AK is the only requirement just because it is *one* condition. It could very well be that some of the population completed a certain quest or did a certain type of behavior. And then when they singer AK-x and immediately found the binding, it looked like that was the only condition.

Not saying this is the case. Just saying no one can prove it out. Literally. Without a confirmation from Blizz, it's all just a hunch.

Has anyone reached 300+ then found a binding? Without doing much else?

I hope so. But again, just sayin.

Without any working theory, your post is just a glorified "i wish it was".

[darcee]

Without any working theory, your post is just a glorified "i wish it was".

Because the only thing we have that is confirmed is that you need AK5/6 and kill Dargrul/Ashgolm and you get it. People have just accepted that its the only way and ignore any other possibility. Even people reporting now just say how many runs they did, not if they did anything different between tries or maybe gotten more traits or something.

It might be that its just a trashgarbage droprate, but there actually just "might" be more to it.

[ymirsson]

Because the only thing we have that is confirmed is that you need AK5/6 and kill Dargrul/Ashgolm and you get it. People have just accepted that its the only way and ignore any other possibility. Even people reporting now just say how many runs they did, not if they did anything different between tries or maybe gotten more traits or something.

It might be that its just a trashgarbage droprate, but there actually just "might" be more to it.

And maybe you need to sacrifice a goat.
Unless you start some work on your theory, why bother listening to you?

[darcee]

And maybe you need to sacrifice a goat.
Unless you start some work on your theory, why bother listening to you?

If I actually got a drop I would report whatever I did between not getting it and did. Would love to be your precious sacrificial goat and contribute.
But instead ill just be angry and post more pointless stuff like you.

[EverWoW]

Without any working theory, your post is just a glorified "i wish it was".

I'm not sure that my post has a theory. Other than pointing out other people's theories are just that.

But you're not completely incorrect about one thing: I do "wish it was"!