Is Felo'Melorns Aftershocks trait bugged?

[blackstoise]

Why is this flamestrike vs pyro thing still an argument? It's been simmed, it is not worth using on targets that live long enough for the ignite from pyro to fully spread and do damage. Unless there are 9+. Again it has been SIMMED, it's not what feels right, or napkin math.

[Deleted]

Why is this flamestrike vs pyro thing still an argument? It's been simmed, it is not worth using on targets that live long enough for the ignite from pyro to fully spread and do damage. Unless there are 9+. Again it has been SIMMED, it's not what feels right, or napkin math.

bcoz in-game testing and logs show that it could very well be wrong perhaps? the fact that several ppl get equal or better results with FS? or how several factors that speak for FS havent been taken into account? im not saying FS or pyro is the way to go, im just saying that if you use pyro solely bcoz its been simmed to be better then you've done it wrong, sims are only canon if it has been proven to be so through actual ingame testing and this particular debate certainly hasnt.

also you do know how they actually make/program the sims right? through napkin math, the sim doesnt come first and is then supported by math, its the math that makes the ground work of the sims, and if the sims are based on faulty math then the sim will be incorrect, not saying the sims are incorrect but there are definately evidence that shows that it certainly isnt 100% true either.

[BiggestNoob]

you also have to factor in that the spreading ignites from pyro doesnt have the same strength of the original ignite but rather has 7/9 of the original ignite since it doesnt spread until after 2 secs and then is increased to a 9 sec duration, so if the original ignite ticks for 1000 dmg (9k total) then the ignite that spreads will spread with 7k dmg left over 9 secs, so each ignite that spreads will progressively reduce in dmg if ive understood the ignite spreading mechanic correctly ofc, the ignites from flamestrike wouldnt have that problem since every target gets an ignite instantly, this also have the added benefit of giving you a greater return on your phoenix reborn trait as you will have multipple ignites up instantly, giving you and increased chance of getting phoenix flames back to continue your aoe rather than having 1 spread slowly, there are definately plenty of things that speaks for either option.

I'm not sure on the exact spread mechanics because I haven't done more testing (I've been doing math assuming a 1 second spread which matches the initial spread on dummies, despite the tooltip saying 2) but I do know that the spread is done in a way such that every target with the same ignite on it ticks for the same damage. Say you hit target A for 1 million damage with 20% mastery, it gains a 200k Ignite averaged over 9 ticks, so 22222 per tick. When it does spread, the target gains an ignite equal to 200k - [ticks]*22222 but it also inherits the same timer as the parent, meaning they will both fall off at the same time (instead of getting 9 ticks, it may only get 8 or 7). When I hit a dummy in SW and it spreads to 2 dummies, the second affected dummy gets 8 ticks and the third gets 7, which is why I don't know how the 2 second spread mechanic works effectively, so I'm assuming a spread at the cost of 1 tick which at worst case overestimates the value of Ignite on a priority target.

In any case, the way this Ignite works means a Pyro on a priority target with 4 adds up ends up doing this:

Assumptions: 6% PB damage, 3% CHD, 20% Mastery, 60% Crit

Pyro hits main target for EV = 1.06*400%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 693.66%
Ignite value on main target = 138.73%
Ignite value on second target = 138.73% * 8/9 = 123.32%
Ignite value on third and fourth targets = 138.73 * 7/9 = 107.90%

Total expected damage: 1171.51%

Even assuming you don't have Aftershocks or BFS (because almost nobody does atm, we'll get those at 27-30), Flamestrike does:

Flamestrike hits 4 targets each for EV = 180%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 294.48%
Ignite value on all 4 targets = 294.48*0.2 = 58.90%

Total expected damage: 4*(294.48 + 58.9) = 1413.52%

That's whole damage, factoring in Ignite, expected from each Pyro hit vs Flamestrike. 242% is worth more than the value of HU (which is highly valuable when you have force crits, less valuable when you don't, but certainly below 200%). In Combustion you can force 4 FS hits with a DB and a Cinderstorm with LB going off inside Combustion/RoP which is the maximum possible burst AoE damage we can do on 4+ targets (better than just Pyroing a single target), but you still Pyro a single target at however many targets and let LB/PF/Ignite/DB/Cinderstorm cleave if your goal is to kill a priority target (like pulling both packs to the first mini in VoTW), with Cinderstorm in Combustion/RoP above 2 targets if you can hit every target with it.

I'm going to look into exactly when Ignite spreads and ticks then do some math for max Pyro spam, optimal cleave Pyro spam (CiS used more intelligently to get 5 PI for all Pyros and LB explosion), and full AoE on 4+ targets using a simple calculator so people can see exactly what the expected breakdown looks like. This "big Ignite > *" myth is pretty stupid at this point. Even the above math won't convince people that at 4 targets FS > Pyro.

[Solidpat]

I'm not sure on the exact spread mechanics because I haven't done more testing (I've been doing math assuming a 1 second spread which matches the initial spread on dummies, despite the tooltip saying 2) but I do know that the spread is done in a way such that every target with the same ignite on it ticks for the same damage. Say you hit target A for 1 million damage with 20% mastery, it gains a 200k Ignite averaged over 9 ticks, so 22222 per tick. When it does spread, the target gains an ignite equal to 200k - [ticks]*22222 but it also inherits the same timer as the parent, meaning they will both fall off at the same time (instead of getting 9 ticks, it may only get 8 or 7). When I hit a dummy in SW and it spreads to 2 dummies, the second affected dummy gets 8 ticks and the third gets 7, which is why I don't know how the 2 second spread mechanic works effectively, so I'm assuming a spread at the cost of 1 tick which at worst case overestimates the value of Ignite on a priority target.

In any case, the way this Ignite works means a Pyro on a priority target with 4 adds up ends up doing this:

Assumptions: 6% PB damage, 3% CHD, 20% Mastery, 60% Crit

Pyro hits main target for EV = 1.06*400%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 693.66%
Ignite value on main target = 138.73%
Ignite value on second target = 138.73% * 8/9 = 123.32%
Ignite value on third and fourth targets = 138.73 * 7/9 = 107.90%

Total expected damage: 1171.51%

Even assuming you don't have Aftershocks or BFS (because almost nobody does atm, we'll get those at 27-30), Flamestrike does:

Flamestrike hits 4 targets each for EV = 180%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 294.48%
Ignite value on all 4 targets = 294.48*0.2 = 58.90%

Total expected damage: 4*(294.48 + 58.9) = 1413.52%

That's whole damage, factoring in Ignite, expected from each Pyro hit vs Flamestrike. 242% is worth more than the value of HU (which is highly valuable when you have force crits, less valuable when you don't, but certainly below 200%). In Combustion you can force 4 FS hits with a DB and a Cinderstorm with LB going off inside Combustion/RoP which is the maximum possible burst AoE damage we can do on 4+ targets (better than just Pyroing a single target), but you still Pyro a single target at however many targets and let LB/PF/Ignite/DB/Cinderstorm cleave if your goal is to kill a priority target (like pulling both packs to the first mini in VoTW), with Cinderstorm in Combustion/RoP above 2 targets if you can hit every target with it.

I'm going to look into exactly when Ignite spreads and ticks then do some math for max Pyro spam, optimal cleave Pyro spam (CiS used more intelligently to get 5 PI for all Pyros and LB explosion), and full AoE on 4+ targets using a simple calculator so people can see exactly what the expected breakdown looks like. This "big Ignite > *" myth is pretty stupid at this point. Even the above math won't convince people that at 4 targets FS > Pyro.

I agree with your maths and reasoning, except for 1 thing. What you stated above is true because you are comparing 1 pyro with 1 FS. The thing is, for every 2 FS I do on trash packs, I will do 4 pyros. You also need to count that pyro has a 80% crit chance(empirically) and thus a 80% chance to give you another Heating Up proc and thus an extra pyro + Fireblast combo. FS has a 0% to give you an extra FS.

[Deleted]

I agree with your maths and reasoning, except for 1 thing. What you stated above is true because you are comparing 1 pyro with 1 FS. The thing is, for every 2 FS I do on trash packs, I will do 4 pyros. You also need to count that pyro has a 80% crit chance(empirically) and thus a 80% chance to give you another Heating Up proc and thus an extra pyro + Fireblast combo. FS has a 0% to give you an extra FS.

uhm no, 60% crit baseline will be 66% crit for pyro, not 80% and numbers still heavily favors FS, it essentially comes down to your gcd usage and RNG.

also im pretty sure you wont cast 4 pyros for every 2 FS, the best you can literally do is 3 pyros and thats if you crit 100% of your pyros, the instant your pyro doesnt crit then you're using the same amount of time to generate 1 HS proc.

[BiggestNoob]

I agree with your maths and reasoning, except for 1 thing. What you stated above is true because you are comparing 1 pyro with 1 FS. The thing is, for every 2 FS I do on trash packs, I will do 4 pyros. You also need to count that pyro has a 80% crit chance(empirically) and thus a 80% chance to give you another Heating Up proc and thus an extra pyro + Fireblast combo. FS has a 0% to give you an extra FS.

Yeah I didn't factor in the 10% more crit on Pyro, but I've done that elsewhere here and it doesn't change much.

You won't realistically get 2 Pyros per FS, even during Combustion you can get 4 FS with all PF, a LB, Cinderstorm, and DB vs 6 PB, because there are abilities that are higher priority on 4+ targets inside Combustion. Outside of Combustion your PF/FB regen slowly enough that you get the same effective number of FS/PB hits with a 15-20% edge to PB (which is why I said the value of HU is less than 200%) because it can proc HU, and once we do get BFS and Flameshocks it won't be as close on 4 targets anymore.

I don't want to manually calculate seconds and Ignite ticks so I'm going to write a simple tool to generate the action list for both on 3-7 targets and we'll see exactly which does more effective damage.

[kheath812]

Why is this flamestrike vs pyro thing still an argument? It's been simmed, it is not worth using on targets that live long enough for the ignite from pyro to fully spread and do damage. Unless there are 9+. Again it has been SIMMED, it's not what feels right, or napkin math.

im not sure why you think sims are an end all be all. sims are made by people that make mistakes, and in this case, there were mistakes and guides havent been updated to reflect that.. untalented flame strike is worth using on 4+ targets. every single top mage says this and uses flamestrike on 4+ targets and im going to go with the actual good mages over people who just like playing with spreadsheets and calculators on their computers but arent actually any good at the game.

its really embarassing how much people around here circlejerk sims. it, among other things i see, just goes to show how low skill the people who browse mmo-champ actually are.

[Solidpat]

uhm no, 60% crit baseline will be 66% crit for pyro, not 80% and numbers still heavily favors FS, it essentially comes down to your gcd usage and RNG.

also im pretty sure you wont cast 4 pyros for every 2 FS, the best you can literally do is 3 pyros and thats if you crit 100% of your pyros, the instant your pyro doesnt crit then you're using the same amount of time to generate 1 HS proc.

Pyro crit is much higher than 60%... 60% would be hardcasted Pyros. You are excluding all the ones from combustion and the HS pyros which are 100%. You will end up with anything between 80%-85%, like i said verify this yourself in your logs.

I have both simmed and tested out a full rotation on many dummies. One of the rotation was my single target rotation to see how many pyros I could pull in 2 minutes. That number was 35. Then i did a full rotation of simply using FS and I casted 20. This sounds like you should be testing 20x FS vs 35x Pyros.

[BiggestNoob]

HS pyros aren't 100% crit, they get 100% more ignite.

This is all inclusive, double Ignite assuming HS, and all artifact traits (with and without for FS):

Assumptions: 6% PB damage, 3% CHD, 20% Mastery, 60% Crit, +10% CC for Pyro, 5/5 PI, 3% Fire, 12% Ignite, HS

Pyro hits main target for EV = 1.03*1.06*400%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.66 + 0.34) = 890.69%
Ignite value on main target = 890.69%*0.4*1.12 = 399.03%
Ignite value on second target = 399.03% * 8/9 = 354.69%
Ignite value on third and fourth targets = 399.03% * 7/9 = 310.36%

Total expected damage: 2265.13% (5 targets = 2531.2%)

Flamestrike hits each target for EV = 1.03*180%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 360.60%
Ignite value on each target = 360.60%*0.4*1.12 = 161.55%

Total expected damage: 2088.60% (5 targets = 2610.75%)

Flamestrike with Aftershocks/BFS hits each target for EV = 1.15*1.03*180%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) + 1.03*30%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 414.69% + 50.55%
Ignite on each target = 414.69%*0.4*1.12 = 185.78%

Total expected damage: 2604.08% (5 targets = 3255.1%)

That assumes that 5 PI works for the full FS hit and each hit isn't calculated independently (the first non-crit would ruin the remaining hits), and that Aftershocks doesn't benefit from BFS or PI (second hit, assuming FS clears it), and that it generates 0 Ignite damage. With everything considered, in particular PI at 5, FS isn't as good on 4 targets but is better on 5, but is better regardless with BFS/AS.

The difference in this scenario favors PB with HU over FS, so 6+ without BFS/AS, 4+ with it, and this scenario only exists consistently inside Combustion. Outside combustion FS is more favored at 5+ in general unless you're deep in a PI chain, in which case Pyro is favored at < 6:

On 4 (Pyro, FS, FS+):

0 PI: 1887.62% vs 1756.80% vs 2222.53%
1 PI: 1963.12% vs 1823.16% vs 2298.84%
2 PI: 2038.62% vs 1889.52% vs 2375.16%
3 PI: 2114.12% vs 1955.89% vs 2451.48%
4 PI: 2189.62% vs 2022.25% vs 2527.80%
5 PI: 2265.12% vs 2088.61% vs 2604.11%

[Deleted]

This is all inclusive, double Ignite assuming HS, and all artifact traits (with and without for FS):

Assumptions: 6% PB damage, 3% CHD, 20% Mastery, 60% Crit, +10% CC for Pyro, 5/5 PI, 3% Fire, 12% Ignite, HS

Pyro hits main target for EV = 1.03*1.06*400%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.66 + 0.34) = 890.69%
Ignite value on main target = 890.69%*0.4*1.12 = 399.03%
Ignite value on second target = 399.03% * 8/9 = 354.69%
Ignite value on third and fourth targets = 399.03% * 7/9 = 310.36%

Total expected damage: 2265.13% (5 targets = 2531.2%)

Flamestrike hits each target for EV = 1.03*180%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 360.60%
Ignite value on each target = 360.60%*0.4*1.12 = 161.55%

Total expected damage: 2088.60% (5 targets = 2610.75%)

Flamestrike with Aftershocks/BFS hits each target for EV = 1.15*1.03*180%*(1.25*2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) + 1.03*30%*(2*1.03*0.6 + 0.4) = 414.69% + 50.55%
Ignite on each target = 414.69%*0.4*1.12 = 185.78%

Total expected damage: 2604.08% (5 targets = 3255.1%)

That assumes that 5 PI works for the full FS hit and each hit isn't calculated independently (the first non-crit would ruin the remaining hits). But with everything considered, in particular PI at 5, FS isn't as good on 4 targets but is better on 5, but is better regardless with BFS/AS. During Combustion you'll have 5 PI but you're not guaranteed to have 5 PI on either outside of Combustion. And this assumes Aftershocks doesn't benefit from BFS or PI (second hit, assuming FS clears it), and that it generates 0 Ignite damage.

The difference in this scenario favors PB with HU over FS, so 6+ without BFS/AS, 4+ with it, and this scenario only exists consistently inside Combustion. Outside combustion FS is more favored at 5+ in general unless you're deep in a PI chain, in which case Pyro is favored at < 6:

On 4 (Pyro, FS, FS+):

0 PI: 1887.62% vs 1756.80% vs 2222.53%
1 PI: 1963.12% vs 1823.16% vs 2298.84%
2 PI: 2038.62% vs 1889.52% vs 2375.16%
3 PI: 2114.12% vs 1955.89% vs 2451.48%
4 PI: 2189.62% vs 2022.25% vs 2527.80%
5 PI: 2265.12% vs 2088.61% vs 2604.11%

Can you do all the math again but factor in conflag procs this time as well, as that is the goto talent for aoe situations.

If you don't mind ofc.

[BiggestNoob]

Can you do all the math again but factor in conflag procs this time as well, as that is the goto talent for aoe situations.

If you don't mind ofc.

Conflag shouldn't be a differentiating factor because you should always PF open to get a HU on a big pack to get Ignite rolling for that reason, regardless of priority/AoE focus. It does a ton of damage, but it's going to be the same in both cases (if you try to maintain PI by using Pyros and holding off on CiS/FS it'll do more, but that's hard to calculate, I'd have to make a sim for that).

Unless you're talking about Pyromaniac vs Conflag?

FYI: I updated the math a bit and cleaned up the wording.

[Deleted]

Conflag shouldn't be a differentiating factor because you should always PF open to get a HU on a big pack to get Ignite rolling for that reason, regardless of priority/AoE focus. It does a ton of damage, but it's going to be the same in both cases (if you try to maintain PI by using Pyros and holding off on CiS/FS it'll do more, but that's hard to calculate, I'd have to make a sim for that).

Unless you're talking about Pyromaniac vs Conflag?

FYI: I updated the math a bit and cleaned up the wording.

Point noted about PF, but this is what i was getting at, there will be times where PF is on cooldown, so getting ignite up on as many targets as possible to proc conflag further cements the use of FS>Pyro on 4 targets as well as the fact on long lived packs FS resets ignite on everything it hits but pyro only on your primary target.

Keeping ignite rolling and resetting back to 9s as much as possible means more coflag procs over time which means more damage.

I just don't get why ppl can't accept FS is the way to go....

[Xinder]

Point noted about PF, but this is what i was getting at, there will be times where PF is on cooldown, so getting ignite up on as many targets as possible to proc conflag further cements the use of FS>Pyro on 4 targets as well as the fact on long lived packs FS resets ignite on everything it hits but pyro only on your primary target.

Keeping ignite rolling and resetting back to 9s as much as possible means more coflag procs over time which means more damage.

I just don't get why ppl can't accept FS is the way to go....

Not even gonna lie, I had no idea conflag also could proc off ignite. I thought it procced only off the target that had the conflag dot....I've been playing mage since Legion prepatch, so 3+ months or so since coming back before legion and didn't even realize this. I kind of hate myself now.