Mafia #74 - Game Thread - Miss Congeniality

[dupti]

I hope I didn't get Senna killed. Anyway I'll be back later.

[Danner]

I've seen better starts...

I also dunno if I should be the one to speak, but that no-lynch kinda sucks.

[Largehorn]

Well only one kill is good to know...

To bad the one from last night hit the cop and the MC.

I think that I want to start where I left off,

Vote: Listo

I think it's a good chance that either Listo or Crackle is scum. Of the two I think Listo is it.

[Crackleslap]

Senna commenting about miss congeniality probably got her read and killed. Mmbop.

[dupti]

Danner, please give me your day 1 reads.

[Danner]

@dupti: Yeah, let's put the thinking cap on here a bit.

Qualitative Analysis:

Senna was really carrying the day 1 activity I think. Killing senna might have been a good choice for the scum, but it's terrible for the game.

The only posts that really stand out are the votes. The only two exceptions are Allowyn's distrust/dislike post on Senna (#36) and your post (#75) with the same but much more emphasised read. That said, I do not think either of you would go hard out to smear a townie with the intent of getting them lynched on day 1, so I actually believe this not with malicious intent from either of you, and thus a bit of a town read on you both. You both had an opinion. I do not really worry too much about the opinion being wrong; given the lack of opinions from everyone else (myself included) it's a much better state of play.

IMO the only real clue we have to go on is the voting divide between listo and crackle.

Vote Analysis:

Day 1 summary votes:
Listo - 4: Largehorn (23), Senna (42), Crackleslap (66); Danner (68)
Crackleslap - 3: Dupti (28), Graeham (46), Listo (67)
Senna - 1: Allow (36)
Danner - 1: Marack (71)

On the "lynch listo" side of the table, Crackle is obviously voting where he is as the alternative would be a bit silly for him - leaving largehorn as the main driver, and senna and myself as the interesting supporters.

On the "lynch crackle" side of the table, LIsto is obviously voting in support here, and dupti is obviously the driving force behind the wagon. Supporting actor here is Graeham.

It's really ALlowyn and Marack that are the interesting voters here. Allowyn voting against Senna - but not against crackleslap (?), and ultimately wasting the vote. And Marack having a completely throwaway end-of-day vote. That vote is terrible, more so than Allowyn's on Senna, and I'm not just saying that because I am the recipient of it.

The most important vote is probably my own. This Danner fellow put a vote on Listo over Crackleslap. If only we now knew whether Listo or Crackle was scum, this vote could be the best scumtell on Danner ever - or give us no info. But similarly, the ones NOT voting i that position is IMO a sign of absconding. Meaning - I have to give Allowyn and Marack a point of negativity here. Not picking a train, being directly responsible for leaving us with a no-lynch - is always worse than being the decider. In a game of mafia, someone sometime has to be the decider.

Vote Analysis II:

I'm gonna work under an assumption of a single mafia team. It's a 9 player game, we don't have too much room for more than 1 scumteam. By the rule of 1/3, about 3 members large. Given a cop in play, this size seems sensible.

• If listo is scum and Crackle is not scum, then - in order of probability, likely two of marack, allowyn, graeham and dupti are scum. Meaning I should trust Largehorn and distrust the rest of you (except Crackle, who is then obviously town as that was the premise).
  
• If crackleslap is scum, and listo is not, then I am fairly certain Largehorn is scum too. Under the assumption that there is 3 scum, I know I'm not it, and it can't be senna - and it's very likely not anyone of the ones voting on Crackleslap at day 1. And most importantly, it's very likely not the two not supporting either train, given that I put Listo's train ahead and it would have been easy for them to just hammer listo at that point. So Largehorn is one, and the final spot is empty! This means I do not think this is a viable option. I'm making a case here that I do not think Crackleslap is scum!

How about that, eh? Obviously, it's based on my rolecard knowledge, but still... should I and listo flip town (I will, listo may or may not, you make this logic yourself when we are both dead), Crackleslap is town. (Unless the scum played it really weird and voted one of their own, or refused to hammer Crackleslap. It's possible, but not that likely).

There are two more options worth looking at.

• If both are scum, then the only sane read is that marack is their third teammate. That no-lynch vote can only be interpreted as such. This alternative is unlikely, but not impossible.
  
• I'm kinda in favour of abusing Murphy's law. Basically, if something can be inconvenient, it is going to be. Out of all the options above, I get a harder decision tree if Crackleslap is scum and listo is not. But I get an even harder one if neither are scum. And at that option I'm not sure I get a lot of information. And that makes it the hardest choice. Which obviously makes it the right answer. (Abusing Murphy to town-read two players, you know this makes sense!)

So I'm gonna do this vote for today.

vote: marack

Reasons: That day 1 no-lynch vote, best possible teammate for listo-as-scum, and even if listo isn't scum, this vote is helping the read that Crackle is town. Basically, this is by far the best vote available.

[Graeham]

Vote: Marack

I'm inclined to trust Danner's reasoning and judgement. Sorry for not being around much - FFXIV's Fan Fest and expansion announcement has been distracting me these past few days.

[Marack]

@Danner My vote on you towards the end of D1 was a reaction to something you said. You know, My typical change votes a shit ton on D1. Something Ive done in just about every game ive played so far. However, had I realized that the day was ending while I was at work (with no ability to read the game and change my vote) I likely would have unvoted. But Im sure that would have been another scum ready for you.

I dont have a read on anyone this game. So Im likely going to vote closer to the end of the day. If it comes down to it, Ill hammer myself, because im not that into this game. Have a lot going on in life.

[dupti]

Thanks for the answer Danner.

Qualitative Analysis:

Senna was really carrying the day 1 activity I think. Killing senna might have been a good choice for the scum, but it's terrible for the game.

I can't help but feel it is my fault she got killed. I didn't have a scumread on her yesterday at first. The reason I called her out was simply because I usually get a townread on her very early in the game but hadn't gotten it yet. But then I really disliked her response to me. The way she didn't seem to care was obviously not coming from VT Senna, so she was either a PR or scum. I was more inclined to believe she was scum as TPR Senna tends to work with me. But from scum's point of view it was probably pretty obvious that she was most likely a TPR.

I mean it is definitely possible they just killed her because she was active but meh.

It's really ALlowyn and Marack that are the interesting voters here. Allowyn voting against Senna - but not against crackleslap (?), and ultimately wasting the vote. And Marack having a completely throwaway end-of-day vote. That vote is terrible, more so than Allowyn's on Senna, and I'm not just saying that because I am the recipient of it.
The most important vote is probably my own. This Danner fellow put a vote on Listo over Crackleslap. If only we now knew whether Listo or Crackle was scum, this vote could be the best scumtell on Danner ever - or give us no info. But similarly, the ones NOT voting i that position is IMO a sign of absconding. Meaning - I have to give Allowyn and Marack a point of negativity here. Not picking a train, being directly responsible for leaving us with a no-lynch - is always worse than being the decider. In a game of mafia, someone sometime has to be the decider.

I agree. @Allowyn and @Marack please explain why you did not vote on Crackle/Listo.

[*]If crackleslap is scum, and listo is not, then I am fairly certain Largehorn is scum too. Under the assumption that there is 3 scum, I know I'm not it, and it can't be senna - and it's very likely not anyone of the ones voting on Crackleslap at day 1. And most importantly, it's very likely not the two not supporting either train, given that I put Listo's train ahead and it would have been easy for them to just hammer listo at that point. So Largehorn is one, and the final spot is empty! This means I do not think this is a viable option. I'm making a case here that I do not think Crackleslap is scum![/list]

This part right here is questionable. I mean not so so much the actual town read on Crackle because he could be town, but more so the logic you used to reach that conclusion.

The fact that you can't find partners for Crackleslap at this point is very concerning. In fact I actually think this makes Crackle more town and you more suspicious as I have a hard time seeing you say this about a partner.

Even if everything you just said is true (no bussing etc), Crackle could be with Largehorn (sa you said) and Jynx (who you haven't mentioned a single time. I get the impression you forgot he is playing since he hasn't posted yet).

But I'm not sure why you're not even considering bussing a possibility, especially when I am one of the votes. You are usually way more paranoid about me.

There are two more options worth looking at.
[list][*] If both are scum, then the only sane read is that marack is their third teammate. That no-lynch vote can only be interpreted as such. This alternative is unlikely, but not impossible.

Why? Why not Allowyn? (or Jynx)

Reasons: That day 1 no-lynch vote, best possible teammate for listo-as-scum, and even if listo isn't scum, this vote is helping the read that Crackle is town. Basically, this is by far the best vote available.

I do not mind this vote as Marack does need to explain his vote, but I still have to question this.
Why would Marack as scum throw out a useless vote at that point if listo is his teammate? Why not vote on Crackle?
And could you please explain why that vote helps the read that Crackle is town?

- - - Updated - - -

@Danner My vote on you towards the end of D1 was a reaction to something you said. You know, My typical change votes a shit ton on D1. Something Ive done in just about every game ive played so far. However, had I realized that the day was ending while I was at work (with no ability to read the game and change my vote) I likely would have unvoted. But Im sure that would have been another scum ready for you.

I dont have a read on anyone this game. So Im likely going to vote closer to the end of the day. If it comes down to it, Ill hammer myself, because im not that into this game. Have a lot going on in life.

Oh didn't refresh before I posted, just ignore my question then since you just answered it.

[JynxieJ]

I'm so sorry, I just checked my email today to see my role card. I do apologize.

[Kryllian]

Stan smiled and felt pretty proud of the girls. The preliminaries were moving along nicely. Day 2 (Swimsuit judging) wasn't very exciting but he did enjoy being able to sit back and watch the contestants shake what their mama's gave them. Miss New Hampshire was about the only excitement with her faceplant on the runway. He got the feeling high heels were not here regular footwear. Well she wouldn't be making the top 10 at this rate.

Vote Count

Marack - 2: Danner (86), Graeham (87)
Listo - 1: Largehorn (83)


With 9 players in play it takes 5 to lynch

approx 24 hours are left in D2

[Largehorn]

The analysis is great but I have an honest question...

Why would you want to test the analysis in a "round about" way? Would it not be simpler to just lynch one of the people these logic trees hinge on?

Or am I just being stupid?

[Deleted]

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[dupti]

Meh what a slow game. I sincerely doubt town is going to win this.

[Largehorn]

Meh what a slow game. I sincerely doubt town is going to win this.

I don't know we might manage something.

If people would get on and do stuff.

I've been checking the thread as often as I can, but it's hard to post into "vacuums". T.T

[Crackleslap]

I mean people could not have voted on me because it is supported by a joke claim of "LULZ i have guilty on him". I mean honestly. Just saying.

[dupti]

I mean people could not have voted on me because it is supported by a joke claim of "LULZ i have guilty on him". I mean honestly. Just saying.

Um, who are you talking to?

[Crackleslap]

You.
@dupti "I agree. Allowyn and Marack please explain why you did not vote on Crackle/Listo. "

Really cbf quoting and deleting the rest of the comment.

That is what I was replying too. I was saying there wasn't a profound reason why there is a train on me. It's based on a joke. Leading me to say that its not really scum indicative. Sure day ones day one and who gives a flying hoot and just lynch someone but there's a potential they simply didn't want to vote me.

Granted they probably should have lynched someone, but from a vote count Allowyn was one of the first votes. I don't remember the time but the day could have ended during sleeping hour. Marack, who knows.

[listo95]

I honestly just want to know why Large mentioned me being a cult leader for all my RP yesterday...

[dupti]

That is what I was replying too. I was saying there wasn't a profound reason why there is a train on me. It's based on a joke. Leading me to say that its not really scum indicative. Sure day ones day one and who gives a flying hoot and just lynch someone but there's a potential they simply didn't want to vote me.

Granted they probably should have lynched someone, but from a vote count Allowyn was one of the first votes. I don't remember the time but the day could have ended during sleeping hour. Marack, who knows.

Irrelevant. It is day 1 as you said, people get lynched for dumb reasons all the time. If they did not want to join the train because of a joke they should've voiced their concern and not just stay passive and do nothing at all. I sincerely doubt that is the reason and even if it was, it makes no sense for them not to vote for Listo instead of you then.

I'm really curious as to why you are defending them though.