2016 MLB Thread

[FobManX]

Apparently Dusty Baker made some comment about the Dodgers pitching staff being overworked, because Dusty Baker never overworked a pitching staff in his life.

Dusty made so many mistakes the last two games of this series. Its a shame because he managed really well in the regular season and the first three games, but consistently he left a P in one hitter too long which cost us. Scherzer should have been pulled after 6 instead he got left in and gave up the tying homer which completely flipped the momentum.

[draynay]

I don't know, if anything they might've left Scherzer in longer, 99 pitches and he got the hook with the bottom of the order coming up, if Dusty thought bringing in a lefty would make much of a difference, it was a silly decision since it just invited the use of pinch hitters. If they had brought in a lefty (Ethier) to hit for Urias, that might've been the time to take out Scherzer and had a lefty to face Ethier(If Puig didn't replace him)/Utley/Seager.

If you've got a guy to face a single lefty batter, why bring him in with the bases empty to face a switch hitter? No, Scherzer staying in would've made more sense to me.

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There's a reason he got a $200+ mil contract, for games like this, and to get pulled after allowing one run with the bases empty was pretty weak IMHO.

[Stommped]

I'm rooting for Blue Jays, Indians, meteor, Dodgers, Cubs. I have the Cubs last because the curse is fun for the rest of us.

Wow, a Giants fan rooting for the Dodgers over the Cubs?

[draynay]

Wow, a Giants fan rooting for the Dodgers over the Cubs?

He still seems to favor apocalypse raining from the heavens over either of them winning.

[ItachiZaku]

There's a reason he got a $200+ mil contract, for games like this, and to get pulled after allowing one run with the bases empty was pretty weak IMHO.

I tend to agree. I leave Pedro in. I leave Harvey in. I trust in my bull, if Max wants to stay in, he's staying in.

[Mannic]

So how about the domination of those Windians. Tomlin wasn't even supposed to pitch and did an amazing job on the mound for being some one that is quite a average pitcher.

[ItachiZaku]

I had him when he was "good", dumped him 2 starts into that 0-8 194.64 ERA stretch he had toward the end.

Yay Kershaw sighting!

[Fenixdown]

Bold prediction : Clayton Kershaw will be referred to at the end of his career as one of the three greatest left-handed pitchers in Major League history. What he's done in four years so far compares only to Sandy Koufax. That's just insane.

And should they win the World Series this year? He'll be named Mayor.

[draynay]

Hope the toronto bats show some signs of life, getting tired of hearing them grouse about the strikezone.

[kidsafe]

Bold prediction : Clayton Kershaw will be referred to at the end of his career as one of the three greatest left-handed pitchers in Major League history. What he's done in four years so far compares only to Sandy Koufax. That's just insane.

People made similar predictions for Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Tim Lincecum, etc.

[Fenixdown]

People made similar predictions for Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Tim Lincecum, etc.

None of whom did in four years what Clayton Kershaw has done. Furthermore, only one of those names you listed (Lincecum) is actually a leftie.

Kershaw had led the NL in ERA four consecutive years. And would have made it a fifth if not for missing two months with a herniated disc that required surgery. He only came back to have a "hiccup" in his first start back off the DL (actually putting up numbers that were like the rest of the mortal pitchers in the majors), then nearly shut out the competition in all but one start since. Oh, and got his first career save in the postseason. The day after leading the Dodgers to a Game 4 win against the Nationals.

Let's put this into statistical perspectives. The following seasons are Sandy Koufax's four best statistical years in his career, in terms of ERA, K/9, K/BB, and WHIP. And to show this is a pretty solid comparison, these years were consecutive.

ERA K/9 K/BB WHIP
1963 1.88 8.86 5.28 0.87
1964 1.74 9.00 4.21 0.93
1965 2.04 10.24 5.38 0.86
1966 1.73 8.83 4.12 0.98

Now, here's Kershaw's four straight years. Keep in mind, of course, that this is in an era of possible juiced players and way smaller ballparks. And just for good measure, we'll even throw in this year's stats, so that'll be five years.

ERA K/9 K/BB WHIP
2012 2.53 9.05 3.63 1.02
2013 1.83 8.85 4.46 0.92
2014 1.77 10.85 7.71 0.86
2015 2.13 11.64 7.17 0.88
2016 1.69 10.39 15.64 0.72

To even think to compare that stat line to Wood, Prior, or Lincecum is laughable. Compared to arguably the greatest left-handed starter in MLB HISTORY...he's making those numbers, many of which were only ever matched in single seasons by two pitchers since the end of the Dead Ball Era...look like someone who's second best. The 10.24 K/9 set by Koufax was the year he set the single season strikeout mark...which was surpassed only by Nolan Ryan, who that year had a K/9 ratio of 10.57. In 39 starts. If you took Kershaw's strikeout totals based on his K/9 average and converted it into the same number of starts...he would have had 370. That's just based on start totals, not even based on innings. Ryan had 326 innings the year he fanned 383 batters. Kershaw's best K/9 season he pitched 232.2 innings and fanned 301. So, if you gave him over 100 extra innings, you know what you'd have? The first ever 400 strikeout season.

Oh, and did I mention he's already had a major injury through all of this? Herniated discs aren't something to just shrug off.

Kerry Wood at his absolute BEST...didn't even come remotely in the same SOLAR SYSTEM as Clayton Kershaw. In fact, Bob Gibson is probably the only pitcher who MIGHT. And Wood, Prior, or Lincecum did NOT compare statistically to Sandy Koufax, a claim that Kershaw can quite obviously make for himself.

I retract my previous statement. Kershaw won't be remembered at the end of his career as one of the three greatest left-handers in Major League history. HE ALREADY IS.

As a side note, he's also the biggest reason I've won my fantasy baseball league two of the last three seasons. The one year I didn't was because someone took him before I could. I ended up with Felix Hernandez. I only finished fourth that year. The team that won? Guess who ended up with Kershaw that season.

[kidsafe]

Lincecum is not a lefty. The point is if his career ends today, he doesn't even make the HoF no matter how good his short-term numbers have been. The same applies to Bumgarner or anyone else. Trout and Bryce Harper don't make the HoF if their careers end today.

[draynay]

People made similar predictions for Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Tim Lincecum, etc.

None of those guys were ever close to as good as Kershaw, and his statement is largely based on what has already been accomplished not trying to forecast future success. Kershaw might make the HoF if he retired after this postseason, his overall numbers are borderline HoF.

Right now he is the all-time leader in ERA+ by a starting pitcher, that's adjusted ERA weighted by league ERA and ballpark factors. Only Mariano Rivera is in front of him among pitchers that have thrown 1000+ innings. Pedro Martinez is right behind him, so if Kershaw pitches awhile longer and has some typical regression beyond his peak years he likely ends up behind Pedro.

This was Kershaw's age 28 season, at 28 Lincecum was already on the fast track to nowhere, leading the league in ER and losses. Kerry Wood was already broken down, he threw 66 innings that year and never threw more than 66.1 the rest of his career. Mark Prior pitched his last MLB game at 25.

I think its gonna be hard for Trout not to make the HoF either, he already has a higher career WAR than five HoF center fielders. Unless his career ends because he becomes a terrorist or something, I think he's already won over the voters and proven his greatness.

Anyway, if you want a better comparable player who accomplished a lot but had his career turn the wrong way, I'd point to Johan Santana. Even he was never as good as Kershaw has been, but he did have a nice five year run where he was top 5 in Cy Young voting every year and won 2 of them.

[kidsafe]

If only getting into the HoF or being considered the GOAT were based solely on fWAR/bWAR. Longevity is a key part of the equation as is postseason success and failure.

[Nellise]

Compared to arguably the greatest left-handed starter in MLB HISTORY...he's making those numbers, many of which were only ever matched in single seasons by two pitchers since the end of the Dead Ball Era...look like someone who's second best. The 10.24 K/9 set by Koufax was the year he set the single season strikeout mark...which was surpassed only by Nolan Ryan, who that year had a K/9 ratio of 10.57. In 39 starts. If you took Kershaw's strikeout totals based on his K/9 average and converted it into the same number of starts...he would have had 370. That's just based on start totals, not even based on innings. Ryan had 326 innings the year he fanned 383 batters. Kershaw's best K/9 season he pitched 232.2 innings and fanned 301. So, if you gave him over 100 extra innings, you know what you'd have? The first ever 400 strikeout season.

Randy Johnson had better numbers than those and had a 4 season stretch better than Kershaw's from 1999-2002. He had 372 Ks in 249 innings in 2001, or 13.4 K/9. Johnson's ERAs were higher of course, but scoring was also much much higher across the league then, his ERA+ values are much closer.

[ItachiZaku]

People made similar predictions for Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Tim Lincecum, etc.

Lincecum I could see, lil floppy haired fuck did win the Cy in his 2nd and 3rd years. Prior I believe only had that one good season, and if every one season wonder was a god, there'd be more gods than humans. Wood was one of those watch every time he pitched guys, you never knew when he'd strike out 20.

That being said, Wood was never EVER in the running for Cy Young lmao what? I checked baseball reference and that dude never even had a good season in his entire career... wtf lol

Kershaw just wasn't playoff legit. Basically, he's Peyton Manning. He's having a good stretch now though.

[kidsafe]

Wood pitched half his games in the friendly confines of Wrigley at the peak of the steroid/juiced era.

Besides that, my point is that Kershaw and Trout as of right now would only just squeak into or miss the HoF. You could argue for or against, it doesn't matter. To say Kershaw ends up the greatest lefty ever assumes he stays healthy and/or around the mean. We can't take that for granted.

[draynay]

Wood pitched half his games in the friendly confines of Wrigley at the peak of the steroid/juiced era.

That is why I was comparing players on adjusted ERA since the whole point of it is to consider those factors.

[Rennadrel]

Hope the toronto bats show some signs of life, getting tired of hearing them grouse about the strikezone.

Whelp, they did today.

[draynay]

I don't know why crappy FOX people are acting like Rizzo is a bad baserunner, didn't he steal like 15 bases last year?

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For the first time this postseason the Dodgers win a game that Kershaw didn't appear in.