Mafia #74 - Game Thread - Miss Congeniality

[dupti]

Why do you think I've fallen over mostly? I have no scum reads and I've been focused since D1. All I can do is claim Miss Ohio at this point.

What's your role?

[listo95]

What's your role?

Generic VT.

[dupti]

Alright. Let's lynch Danner!

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By the way I'm going to be very disappointed if Allowyn, Marack and Jynx are all town.

This game is pretty weird seeing as half the game isn't even around. We're like what 4 players (?) actually playing the game and now we're killing off one of them.

please kill me mafia

[Graeham]

So just to be certain...two people have claimed to be simple VT's, yes?

[dupti]

Listo and who?

[Marack]

I claimed VT. And Hawaii.

vote Jynxie
Because

[Graeham]

Listo and who?

Marack as well.

[Kryllian]

Stan slumped into bed. What a day. He assumed the girls were so quiet today because of the nerves from the talent competition but it was like a morgue backstage.

The talents were fairly underwhelming but he couldn’t believe his eyes when he saw Miss Ohio take the stage. Her talent was arranging furniture! How she made it that far he didn’t know. He wasn’t surprised when she was laughed off the stage by judges, competitors, and the audience.

He’d feel worse if she hadn’t said some un-lady like things into the mic that made her be eliminated. He’s wasn’t sure how a person would get in a position to put their head where she suggested let alone jump off a cliff at the same time.

Vote Count
Listo - 1: Largehorn (112), Dupti (115), Greaham (125)
Allowyn: Danner (127)
Jynx: Marack (146)

With 9 in play it takes 5 to vote somone off, but with modded majority and 5 votes it only takes 3.

Listo playing Miss Ohio has been disqualified from the competition.

You are Olivia Einstein, Miss Ohio. Don't blink or you will miss your screentime but everyone will still cheer for you!

You are a Vanilla Townie. You win with town when all threats are eliminated!


Day will resume in approx 24 hours. If you have a night action please submit it before the deadline!

[Senna1251]

This bump is brought to you by the letter B.

[Kryllian]

Stan crawled out of bed and looked at his phone. He couldn't believe what he was seeing in a text. Miss California was found that morning locked in a walk in cooler. Frost bite had taken part of her nose and fingers. They rushed her to the hospital and she would survive but there was no way she was going to be able to continue in the pageant. For one thing her left nipple was missing and how would that look in a swimsuit?

"These girls are dropping faster than a hooker on a friday night." he thought.

Well at least today was the last part of the preliminaries before they went live. What could go wrong?

Allowyn playing Miss California, Lislie Davis has been eliminated from the competition. Day will resume and end in approximately 36 hours.

You are Leslie Davis, Miss California. Part of your personal philosophy is you believe in the healing power of music!

You are a Doctor. Each night you can choose to Protect someone. You may not protect the same person two nights in a row. You win with town when all threats are eliminated!

With 7 players it takes 4 for majority vote

[Graeham]

We're not in a good position after losing both a Cop and a Doctor. In the interest of getting some discussion going I'm just going to throw a random question out there for people to respond to as they see fit.

What does everybody think of Dupti and his likely alignment?

[Danner]

Yeah, this is not going awesome. We're probably at LyLo now. With a cop and doc around, I do not think we have only two scum, regardless of what the movie plot says.

Dupti I place in the middle field. His activity suggests he's town. But he's also a player I know could fake that. But ultimately - I want to trust dupti, and I'm not about to lynch him at this point.

If we weren't likely at LyLo, I would jump at lynching Jynx right now. Win or lose, Jynx need to either be here, or be dead. The big question is whether Jynx is scum or not. Part of me kinda jut want to lynch Jynx regardless, but... it's a gamble at this point. So I'm holding it off.

My current thinking:

Likely, aka the "given me few reasons to think otherwise, and this group just shrunk to three players" pool:
Graeham
Jynx
Largehorn

Possible, but less likely:
Dupti - less likely due to activity, desire to see as town
Marack - less likely due to fewer combinations leading to being scum

Still don't think is scum:
Crackleslap - murphy's law is the most powerful force in the universe.

[dupti]

@Danner, well I don't trust you.

Anyway, I'm just going to ignore most of what you guys are saying and just use basic logic.

So first of all, if we are dealing with a team of three and Jynx is town, then we have already lost. Simple as that. We simply won't have enough votes to get a lynch off on a scum and this could very well be the case.

Obviously they aren't going to reveal that yet because Jynx could still show up, but I think that is very unlikely so if Jynx is indeed town and there is a scum team of there around then this game is pretty much already over.

So today we should not consider Jynx to be town (until he shows up). This is not me saying he should be lynched at all, but if you believe Jynx to be town then you HAVE to believe in a we only have two mafias around, but that is a very risky approach considering we could be in lylo.

The best way to approach the game today is a) believe we are in lylo and b) consider Jynx to be scum (once again, not lynching him)

If we aren't in lylo yet then great, but the safest play is still to play around lylo. So if are in lylo and Jynx is town then the game is pretty much already over. So unless you want to give up already, then please take that into consideration.

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So with this in mind, I'm going to look for a team of three. As I've already stated I can't really be arsed to read what most of what you said given the game's nature so I'm just going for a logical approach. Jynx will be treated as scum, but doesn't mean he is the best lynch.

Listo: Largehorn, Senna, Crackleslap, Danner

If Listo is town, then there is 99.99% at least one scum on his wagon day 1.

Crackleslap:
If Crackleslap is scum, it is unlikely he is ever with me (duh) or Graeham (although he could still be with Graeham, more on this later).

Which means that he could be with:

Danner - It's worth mentioning that Danner has used very questionable and flawed logic to force a town read on Crackle all game. I assumed he wouldn't do that to a scumbuddy, but it is a possibility. Also explains why Danner decided to make Listo the leading train instead of Crackle d1 and then opted to stay away from both of them as soon as day 2 started, which did not make much sense given his push on Marack relied on Listo being scum. I mean the most logical conclusion is that he wanted to avoid lynching into Crackle/Listo because Crackle is his partner and a lynch on Listo might lead to a lynch on Crackle.
Jynx - Jynx could be with anyone and will be treated as scum.
Largehorn - I have no reason to believe they can't be scumbuddies.
Marack - Same.

Danner:
If Danner is scum, then he is probably never with Marack (or me!).

Could be with:
Crackle - see above.
Graeham - I have no reason to believe they couldn't be scumbuddies. Both of them did however vote on Marack together, which does seem a bit weird for scumbuddies to do, but seeing as Listo flipped town (and was the alternative) it could be for town credit + not wanting to lynch into Listo/Crackle, since Crackle could very well be next on the block then. That'd mean Graeham and Crackle would have to be together though.
Jynx - Jynx could be with anyone and will be treated as scum.
Largehorn - Could definitely be scumbuddies.

Largehorn:
He can honestly be with anyone. He hasn't really pushed on anyone but Listo. Not going to blame him for the mislynch, Listo should've been lynched ages ago.
Figuring out his team is rather difficult and we will have to look at other players.

Teams

So as previously mentioned, I'm going to assume we have three mafias and that Jynx is scum (until he shows up). Note that Jynx showing up does not change much of what I'm about to say, just means you might have to swap him with another player. (like swapping him with Largehorn if Danner and Crackle are mafia)

Crackle:
Could be with Danner, Jynx, Largehorn or Marack.
It is unlikely that Danner and Marack are ever together.

1) Crackle, Danner, Jynx/Largehorn
2) Crackle, Marack, Jynx/Largehorn
3) Crackle, Largehorn, Jynx

Danner:
Could be with Crackle, Graeham, Jynx or Largehorn.
Crackle and Graeham unlikely to be together.

1) Danner, Crackle, Jynx/Largehorn
2) Danner, Graeham, Jynx/Largehorn
3) Danner, Largehorn, Jynx

Largehorn:
Largehorn could be with pretty much anyone.
Danner unlikely to be with Marack or me.
Crackle unlikely to be with Graeham or me.
Marack is unlikely to be with Graeham.

So if Largehorn is on a team of three he can be with anyone.

Oh and yeah I'm just going to mention Crackle/Danner/Graeham team once again, because while it is possible Graeham and Crackle are together I think it is unlikely but evne if it is the case, they actually made a play in this game in which case I don't mind losing to it. (as in Graeham bussing Crackle putting him at two votes like Listo, because his partners were yet to vote so they could quickly force a majority on the alternative to Crackle later. Crackle's and Danner's votes on listo came at #66 and #68.)
So yeah, I'm not going to pursue this.

So we're lynching Crackleslap, Danner or Largehorn today, because there is pretty much a confirmed scum between the three of them. While I am treating Jynx as scum today, he is not a better lynch because lynching him simply delays the loss as it gives us absolutely no information as he could be with anyone. And there is also still a possibility he is town (which should not taken into consideration until he shows up), so no we should not lynch him.

If we are to solve the game we need to lynch one of them. At the moment I am leaning Danner/Crackle, but that could change.

[Largehorn]

What does everybody think of Dupti and his likely alignment?

He's my strongest town read right now. In fact, I feel that dupti deserves to win if he isn't town with how convinced he has me. I don't think I've had that strong of a read on him before... It's a little spooky.

Other than that it's a bit more of a wash:

Town!
Me - Hi!
dupti - Again he'd better be or he deserves to win in my book with how well he's played

Might be Town
Graeham - I've liked the participation, and none of his post have really given me a slippery/scummy vibe. Votes haven't had much explanation which can be explained...
Danner - Very active, working hard to get stuff done. Vote on Marack logic seemed silly a few days ago. Felt like a distraction from Listo though we now know Listo was town. Still not sure I can give more than a neutral read on that.

People I'm okay with lynching (right now)
Marack - I've not quite figured out why I'm not reading Marack as town, because nothing in their posts has been scummy. I think my gut's telling me lies..... I think it might be because of the semi-unforced claim of VT. That's what pops into my head when I think of Marack. @JynxieJ - Where you at?
Crackle - See Jynx. Part of me feels that Crackle's disappearance might be because if Listo was town (and as scum he'd know that), his death would shortly follow. But this game as seen a few otherwise active people disappear for decent chunks of time.

As such in the hopes of summoning him of where ever he has gone:

Vote: Crackleslap

Where is you?

The best way to approach the game today is a) believe we are in lylo and b) consider Jynx to be scum (once again, not lynching him)

If we aren't in lylo yet then great, but the safest play is still to play around lylo. So if are in lylo and Jynx is town then the game is pretty much already over. So unless you want to give up already, then please take that into consideration.

So what do you suggest? Because I'm not sure how I feel about operating under the assumption that Jynx is scum but then not advocating for a lynch on Jynx. Seems a little off to me.

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Stuff that answered my question big league.

Well that answered that question... XD

[dupti]

@Largehorn, lynching Jynx gives us absolutely no information and might cost us the game.

But I can elaborate if you want me to. You agree that the safest play today is for town to play around lylo (as in a team of three), right?
The thing is, it is not possible for town to win lylo if Jynx is town. So unless you only believe we have two mafias around, which is a possibility, you have to believe Jynx is scum otherwise there is no reason to play this day. (unless you believe he will show up, which is what I'm hoping for).
If there are three mafias around and Jynx is town -> rip town.

The reason I do not believe we should lynch Jynx is because he still could be town.
a) 2 mafia team, he could obviously be town.
b) 3 mafia team, he could still be town. For town to win this they have to hope for him to return at some point.

The fact that there is a possibility for him to be town and he could get back near the deadline and win lylo for town is enough reason for me to not lynch him, when there is pretty much a confirmed scum in three other players and I find two of them very suspicious.

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Well that answered that question... XD

Welp I forgot to refresh as well

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By the way @Danner you agree with the teams I listed right? I mean you have to consider me an option as well obviously, but I used the same "no bus" logic you did.

[Marack]

Im ok with voting Jynx, danner or crackle at this point. With what little time ive had (work, sleep and being sick) I havent put much thought into the game, But a noshow and the way the past 2 days have played out... lead me here.

vote Jynx
As I said, willing to move it to other people.
@JynxieJ You plan on showing face?

[Graeham]

Vote: Danner

Jynx not being here isn't great but I can't shake the feeling that Jynx's absence is just going to be exploited to push a lurker lynch that will result in a mislynch. I also have reason to believe that Dupti is almost certainly town - barring him turning out to be a serial killer or scum with investigation immunity. Take that how you will.

[dupti]

Wait what, what exactly are you claiming?

[Crackleslap]

Having read through the game very quickly. Don't like Danner.

Track record is false and not good. Day one wants to lynch Listo. Doesn't happen. Mood swings over to the non-comitted votes Allowyn/Marack. No one dies night 2 and what do you know, Danner is trying to push Allowyn. The Doctor. There's a train gaining on listo. No vote from Danner. Despite wanting too on day 1. Honestly not much changed with Listo over the couple days and still could have gathered some info from the lynch.

Vote: Danner

[Graeham]

Wait what, what exactly are you claiming?

I'm a JOAT - albeit with limits on how and when my abilities can be used. I'll avoid elaborating too much in that regard to add some WIFOM. In case it's not obvious I've used my investigation which is why I trust you.