Syrian Rebellion: Is the end coming soon?

[Cerilis]

The situation of people in Syria wasn't desperate. [...]

Desperate enough, apparently, to go on the streets and protest the government.

(I excluded the rest of your post for a reason, I dont know enough about the situation between Shia and Sunni and what sounds like a conspiracy theory ^^)

[Draco-Onis]

And alternative outcome is... what exactly? EU/US suddenly loving Assad and pouring billions there?

If your alternatives are "Russia gets paid and builds stuff" and "no rebuilding, continued civil war", why would you take "no rebuilding" option? Even if paying for rebuilding effort takes centuries (which is way too pessimistic, and we're well-known for eventually forgiving foreign loans too) it is still better then "no rebuilding".

Scavenging is when you don't leave to the subject any room to grow. That isn't going to happen.

There are no alternatives which is why Syria will be in turmoil for a long time, the Syrian people will not come back to a country led by Assad. The flow of refugees will not stop unless people are given a reason to stay and the country will be in a state of fighting and in ruin for a while.

Your notion of Russia making a profit and the Syrian people getting back to some semblance of normalcy are diametrically opposed. Unless you are scavenging a country in that state there is no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

[Annoying]

Maybe an "official end", but I'm betting on long-term AQ-style guerilla warfare. Lots of IEDs hidden in places, more suicide attacks, etc. The Syrian government may get "control" back, but they've got a long road before any kind of real peace is remotely possible.

[Shalcker]

There are no alternatives which is why Syria will be in turmoil for a long time, the Syrian people will not come back to a country led by Assad. The flow of refugees will not stop unless people are given a reason to stay and the country will be in a state of fighting and in ruin for a while.

Use false premise, get false conclusions.

People generally hate living in warzones. War stops? With or without Assad many people will return. If all those millions who fled actually cared about Assad enough to fight him, he would be out long ago.

Your notion of Russia making a profit and the Syrian people getting back to some semblance of normalcy are diametrically opposed. Unless you are scavenging a country in that state there is no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

They are not diametrically opposed, because they are goals that can be pursued simultaneously. Seriously, how exactly do you see increase of trade with Russia not benefiting Syria? And any kind of "handout" not being lost to Syrian corruption?

It is far from being zero-sum game there.

[Malacrass]

A lot Syrians who fled because of Assad won't go back either especially if they can prove somehow that they are going to be tortured. Assad has played all sides of the conflicts. Even the Russians are just his useful henchmen.

Even right now the majority of newly registered refugees only get subsidiary protection, once the war is "over" I doubt even that will happen.

I guess it will depend how Assad acts once he has the whole country "under control" again. I assume he will offer to not charge those who fled in order to appeal to the west - and the west will gladly accept. Especially with all the elections coming up.
And when the west accepts that Syria is safe again, they accept Assad. He won.

[Deleted]

Syrian Rebellion: Is the end coming soon?

No, the underlying causes are still there. The Assad dicatorship, and his refuse to share power in a meaningfully way. The opposition cant remove him becuse of Russian wepon and suport for Assad. Hence if Assad win its back to square one.

[Deleted]

Desperate enough, apparently, to go on the streets and protest the government.

(I excluded the rest of your post for a reason, I dont know enough about the situation between Shia and Sunni and what sounds like a conspiracy theory ^^)

Think protestant and catholic.
And then think the 30 years war.

[Thunderball]

Desperate enough, apparently, to go on the streets and protest the government.

(I excluded the rest of your post for a reason, I dont know enough about the situation between Shia and Sunni and what sounds like a conspiracy theory ^^)

There were no protests. All the people who call themselves opposition to Assad are either terrorists or people who left Syria 20 years ago and are living in US/Canada/Europe.

Also, what would they protest against exactly? Syria had one of the most advanced civil rights systems in the region, was probably the only true secular state in the region (the group currently in power in Syria including Assad are alawites - one of the minor factions within Islam so it was their only option to stay in power), Assad himself studied in Europe and has been heavily criticized for being too liberal.

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And you buy those things using money.

You can try but noone would want to conduct any sort of business there. You can only rely on military or humanitarian aid the first couple of years.

[Draco-Onis]

Use false premise, get false conclusions.

People generally hate living in warzones. War stops? With or without Assad many people will return. If all those millions who fled actually cared about Assad enough to fight him, he would be out long ago.

War is not stopping anytime soon, the rebels will go underground and scatter and stretch out the war as long as possible. Even without that what do they have to come back to? the rubles of their houses? no food, infrastructure or law? a government that will use chemical weapons on them at will?

They are not diametrically opposed, because they are goals that can be pursued simultaneously. Seriously, how exactly do you see increase of trade with Russia not benefiting Syria? And any kind of "handout" not being lost to Syrian corruption?

It is far from being zero-sum game there.

It's basic math you can't be subtracting and adding at the same time, why would any handout be under corruption? there is really no Syrian government now everything is being run by foreign governments and probably will be for a while.

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You can try but noone would want to conduct any sort of business there. You can only rely on military or humanitarian aid the first couple of years.

Military and humanitarian aids does not cost money? The cost of rebuilding Syria include those things and they cost money no one is saying you will be getting them from Syria.

[Thunderball]

Think protestant and catholic.
And then think the 30 years war.

It's actually way worse because of the way religious leaders are in Islam compared to Christianity. In Christianity there is centralized power and most religious leaders locally follow their course. But with Islam every imam can lead the people that come to him his own way, can interpret religious texts his own way, and very rarely someone will care.

[Flarelaine]

Maybe an "official end", but I'm betting on long-term AQ-style guerilla warfare.

For a moment, I envisioned bugs bursting out of the sand to take down an unsuspecting convoy.

[Thunderball]

Military and humanitarian aids does not cost money? The cost of rebuilding Syria include those things and they cost money no one is saying you will be getting them from Syria.

Both of those have to go through the UN and be financed by everyone, not a specific country. The amount any country can do is very limited, and it's not about money. And I wouldnt let any private charities anywhere near (Haiti was a disaster).

[Draco-Onis]

Both of those have to go through the UN and be financed by everyone, not a specific country. The amount any country can do is very limited, and it's not about money. And I wouldnt let any private charities anywhere near (Haiti was a disaster).

I am sure there will be private charities, wherever there is a corpse there are vultures.

[Malacrass]

War is not stopping anytime soon, the rebels will go underground and scatter and stretch out the war as long as possible. Even without that what do they have to come back to? the rubles of their houses? no food, infrastructure or law? a government that will use chemical weapons on them at will?

Their families.
There are already cases here in Germany where refugees want to go back - not because they would love to, but because they only got subsidiary protection (which effectively means that they won't be able to reunite with their relatives for the next 2 years, at least).

[caervek]

With the fall of Aleppo most likely coming soon

Aleppo isn't going to fall to the rebels, they had a chance to take it last year during the chaos but they were repelled and now they are getting hammered.

NB: I do understand what you meant, the point is that the rebels can't lose control of Aleppo because they never had it, only a foothold in the east of the city (which has been loyal to Assad throughout the war).

[Deleted]

Everyone seems to have forgotten that the insurgent campaign in Iraq lasted over a decade and at no stage ever controlled any significant territory. The lost of the cities will probably make things easier for ISIS et al: the cost of controlling the cities now falls on the Syrian government.

[Dentelan]

There are no alternatives which is why Syria will be in turmoil for a long time, the Syrian people will not come back to a country led by Assad. The flow of refugees will not stop unless people are given a reason to stay and the country will be in a state of fighting and in ruin for a while.

Your notion of Russia making a profit and the Syrian people getting back to some semblance of normalcy are diametrically opposed. Unless you are scavenging a country in that state there is no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

You really think that refugees will return to Syria if Assad will be ovethrowned? Refugees will stay in Europe, just deal with it, unless Europe find some balls to send them back with force, and it never gonna happen.

[Independent voter]

Allepo hasn't fallen yet? Damn, how many bombs do the Russians have to drop on the Sunni Syrians?

[Daten-shi]

Allepo hasn't fallen yet? Damn, how many bombs do the Russians have to drop on the terrorists?

As much as it takes.

[kaid]

Maybe an "official end", but I'm betting on long-term AQ-style guerilla warfare. Lots of IEDs hidden in places, more suicide attacks, etc. The Syrian government may get "control" back, but they've got a long road before any kind of real peace is remotely possible.

I think it is likely the government gains control of most cities but you wind up with a pakistan type situation where the country side is actively hostile and hard for the government to enter into without a lot of resistance.