Trump just pissed off Beijing in a major way

[Glorious Leader]

There is a massive difference between 50 and 500.

If 5 of the 50 chinese nukes get through hell if 2 or 3 do it doesnt really matter if the US has 500. The destructive scale of these weapons is so enourmous that simple having more is not the actual detterence. Their destructive potential is.

[Skroe]

If 5 of the 50 chinese nukes get through hell if 2 or 3 do it doesnt really matter if the US has 500. The destructive scale of these weapons is so enourmous that simple having more is not the actual detterence. Their destructive potential is.

No.

If 5 nuclear weapons get through, they would destroy 5 US ICBM / military sites.

You overrate how powerful nuclear weapons are.

One US ICBM silo is spaced wide enough out from it's neighbor that an entirely different warhead would have to strike it. And that is where warheads would be aimed (and places like that), not Los Angeles.

A 300kt nuclear air blast causes Thermal Radiation out to 7.17 kilometers. That is rather small within the context of a city, or a State. A 1.2Mt air blast causes thermal radiation out to 13.2km. That's pretty much as big as it gets.

That nuclear weapons target cities is largely a result of their mass media portrayal. The fallacy of that is driven by a simple realization: if you can prevent the other side from destroying your country, wouldn't you? That motivates aiming at the other sides' nuclear infrastructure and command and control. Cities, aka counter-value targets, are way, way down the list. Even during the Cold War, it was clear, Soviet Generals weren't terribly keen on slaughtering millions of American civilians.

[Shadowferal]

o good god a skroe post..and not predicated on anything but wishful thinking.

China = #1 US "Most Favored Nation" trading status.
No matter how many times it was supposed to change, it didn't. Clinton threatened to revoke it as part of his campaign pledge in '96. Then turned around and made China's MFN status permanent. (renamed "permanent normal trade relations" in '96, and signed into law in '01) Russia was also granted such status.

This ain't going anywhere.

[cface]

Good, I despise China, what a fucked up country that belongs in the past. Hope the middleclass in China grows strong enough to change the government.

[Traveler Voltin]

So our future is basically fallout?

[Skroe]

o good god a skroe post..and not predicated on anything but wishful thinking.

China = #1 US "Most Favored Nation" trading status.
No matter how many times it was supposed to change, it didn't. Clinton threatened to revoke it as part of his campaign pledge in '96. Then turned around and made China's MFN status permanent. (renamed "permanent normal trade relations" in '96, and signed into law in '01) Russia was also granted such status.

This ain't going anywhere.

This threads been filled with 'skroe posts'. They've been well received.

I have to go to work, but if I find time later, I'll make a coloring book version for you to go read through at the Bitter Sanderista Kids Table.

[slitheroutfromtherocks]

Trump managed to snake his way into office by selling himself to basically low information idiots, but he's a total novice politician with no grasp of foreign policy. He's going to get manhandled on an international political stage.

You mean Obama voters? He won the most counties since Reagan and many of those had to flip from voting Obama twice to Trump. Fact is Trump won because the democratic candidate was weak and didn't inspire black. hispanic voters or women. For all the things Trump said about women in the end he got 1% less of the female vote than Mitt and more black and Hispanic votes.

Of course your attitude is also to blame I'm sure working class people love to hear how stupid they're from some kid in their family who plays wow and posts on MMOChamp. I digress however this is just more arm chair analysis by people who believed he couldn't win the election in the first place by people who were wrong about everything at every turn. Pardon me for not giving a shit.

[Shadowferal]

Good, I despise China, what a fucked up country that belongs in the past. Hope the middleclass in China grows strong enough to change the government.

Won't happen anytime soon.
Give it another couple of generations...maybe.
As long as world stability remains...stable, they won't want to change much.

[CostinR]

Two things.

First, no, I'm not reading too much into who advises Trump, because people said the exact same thing about Obama and George W Bush. And what happened there? Both were controlled by advisers they or their affiliates where close to.

Obama could have listened to seasoned hands like Robert Gates, David Petraeus and Leon Panetta. He CHOSE to listen to Susan Rice and Tom Donilon.

I understand the concern here very well but I disagree very strongly on your conclusion. You seem to think Trump is listening to people like Bolton, has Trump even met Bolton that we know of? No.

He did meet John Huntsman which would be the steady hand he needs, he also named Mattis. I'm merely going to ask you wait until he makes his SOS choice, which will not be Romney, Giuliani or Bolton.

the EU is splintering (and perversely, the Trumpkins are cheering it), because without the US there, Russia will try and exploit the situation. Furthermore looking into the next decade, Rand and STRATFOR predict Russia's troubles to considerably worsen as its economy declines. The US is not equipped (yet) to both contain China to the degree necessary and deal with another round of Russian splintering.

I'm a European that has looked at this stuff for years and I could have told you over half a decade ago that the EU was doomed to fail. Why? Because Obama and Bush are geniuses compared to that narrow minded clown that Merkel is. The decisions that woman has made have led us to this unmitigated disaster.

Earlier this year I thought that maybe, just maybe, Brexit would force the clowns in charge to change course. I saw political thinkers argue that it needs to....and then all the morons in Bruxelles said in one unified voice: NOPE

Although I am Trump supporter I certainly don't want the EU to collapse. I know very well as a Eastern European that the EU is the only thing preventing US/Russia/China from abusing all the nations here.

Watching Juncker's and Merkel's reaction to Trump's victory was horrifying. They haven't learned a goddamned thing.

We need a different course, a revision of strategy. The EU is gone. It died when that imbecile Merkel decided she wouldn't risk her fucking approval ratings to actually save Southern Europe.

We need to plan for a long, cold conflict with China. We push too hard now, we'll show our hand before we're remotely ready. And that will make winning in 20 or 25 years (or more), far, far harder.

We don't have 20 years. In 5 we'll be very, very lucky if China's economy doesn't implode.

The US has a choice to make on China: Either it moves to confront it now while letting Russia get influence in Europe or when China's economic crash does occur the whole global economy goes up in flames.

You think 2008 was an economic crash? It will take a miracle to survive China's crash if we don't isolate ourselves from the blast radius.

That's why China, very very quietly, approved of TPP. We need to go from Made in China to something else. I happen to think Made in Japan ain't a solution but Made in America is.

Either way nothing the US could do would have prevented the EU's collapse.

It's down to Russia or China. Which one do you want to deal with first? It's way too late to stop both. You can thank those absolute morons like Bush, Cheney, Obama and Clinton for leading us to this.

[Macaquerie]

Russia first, obviously, since they are a much weaker opponent and we have a stronger alliance of powers lined up against them. While NATO and our European alliances are rock solid and built off of decades of friendship and trust, our Asian allies aren't exactly the biggest fans of American hegemony and it's doubtful they'll be committed to preserving it against Chinese aggression if push comes to shove.

[FeedsOnDevTears]

This isn't about military action, it's diplomatic action. As much as you think this sets off a fight before it should happen the reality is at the rate China's been going and the rate the US has been going that this fight has to happen now not later.

Again not a military fight. China has what? 300 nukes? US has thousands and all those defenses in place in Japan and South Korea to intercept them, there is no way imaginable that on a military front there will be anything but saber rattling.

Trump actions are a very clear cut diplomatic message however. The first call he made was to Putin, the first leader he met was Abe of Japan and he's also likely to meet Duterte.

I am now going to ask everyone reading this post to do the following: Do not assume Trump is a moron who has no idea what he's doing. Even if you genuinely believe that put aside your bias consider that he knows exactly what he's doing.

Every one of his economic and foreign policies he has proposed: From preventing outsourcing, rebuilding manufacturing in the US to branding China a currency manipulator and finally working with countries like Russia all comes down to one single idea: Trump wants to destroy China.

You're still in denial. Or maybe bargaining. You can't come to terms with the truth: America just elected a 70-year old conman, actor, and internet troll who goes by the handle Pussygrabber, as President of the United States. So you're trying to convince yourself he's actually a smart guy with a plan, because the idea that he's the Dunning-Kruger effect to the Nth power is just too awful to accept.

The closest Trump will come to "destroying China" is selling them the US in return for forgiving the hundreds of millions he owes them:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ny...rticle/2599815

[CostinR]

You're still in denial. Or maybe bargaining. You can't come to terms with the truth: America just elected a 70-year old conman, actor, and internet troll who goes by the handle Pussygrabber, as President of the United States. So you're trying to convince yourself he's actually a smart guy with a plan, because the idea that he's the Dunning-Kruger effect to the Nth power is just too awful to accept.

Denial? What? I've supported him for over a year and half. I'm in no denial.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Had he listened to his own military advisers and kept a military force in Iraq, ISIS would never have been able to grow and commit countless atrocities and created the humanitarian/refugee crisis that the rest of the world is now dealing with.

Hmm. And who else said that the US should basically get out of Iraq? Who could possibly have said, in 2008 that he would "get out of Iraq right now" in an interview with GQ? Could that have been the Trumpster, the saviour of all, the all-knowing political genius? The one that wanted us to go in there in the first place (even though his old man memory has failed him to such an extent that he now thinks he was against it).

Still, as long as all the decisions need to be made retrospectively, and as long as Trump can change what he did after the event, everything should work out fine.

[Kujako]

Had he listened to his own military advisers and kept a military force in Iraq, ISIS would never have been able to grow and commit countless atrocities and created the humanitarian/refugee crisis that the rest of the world is now dealing with...

So all he had to do was conquer Iraq illegally (remember, they didn't want us there) and preeminently control it with military force?

[Scathbais]

Hmm. And who else said that the US should basically get out of Iraq? Who could possibly have said, in 2008 that he would "get out of Iraq right now" in an interview with GQ? Could that have been the Trumpster, the saviour of all, the all-knowing political genius? The one that wanted us to go in there in the first place (even though his old man memory has failed him to such an extent that he now thinks he was against it).

Still, as long as all the decisions need to be made retrospectively, and as long as Trump can change what he did after the event, everything should work out fine.

Umm, Trump was not President, Obama was. This is really funny actually. Obama kept blaming Bush (another bad President) practically into his 8th year as President..and now people are going to blame the future President? Thanks, I really needed a good chuckle today.

[Kujako]

Umm, Trump was not President, Obama was. This is really funny actually. Obama kept blaming Bush (another bad President) practically into his 8th year as President..and now people are going to blame the future President? Thanks, I really needed a good chuckle today.

It's almost as if Bush signed a treaty agreeing to withdraw troops from Iraq or something....

[Gaexion Ramza Beoulve]

Taiwan>China

[Noxx79]

It's almost as if Bush signed a treaty agreeing to withdraw troops from Iraq or something....

Nononono, whenever there's a new president, all deals, treaties, laws, and orders are immediately null and void.
That's the best way to have a stable international relationship with countries, right?

[Kujako]

Nononono, whenever there's a new president, all deals, treaties, laws, and orders are immediately null and void.
That's the best way to have a stable international relationship with countries, right?

Guess we're gonna find out...

[zEmini]

Who cares what China thinks. Taiwan is a democracy and China should accept that.