Trump just pissed off Beijing in a major way

[Skroe]

Hammer blows? So, do I take that to mean that you think a full-on conventional war to break China is inevitable once demographics and the "thousand cuts" you speak of weaken them?

No. The US should look to the late 1970s to 1992 for guidance. The fall of the Soviet Union was no accident. It was arranged. Or rather, the US gave it a hard shove at a delicate time.

(1) The USSR went through 4 leaders in 3 years, leading to a highly unstable internal political situation.
(2) The USSR was stuck in an highly inconclusive war it could barely afford in Afghanistan
(3) The USSR's economy was in decline due to the fall in oil prices. After the 1973 arab oil embargo, the West diversified. This lead to a production surge and falling prices that struck the USSR's coffers.
(4) Anti-Communist forces across Eastern Europe were growing as Russia's puppet states destabilized.

This is broadly speaking, the situation. Now for the shoves.

(1) The US exploited the lack of coherent Soviet Policy to the US through the change of Soviet leadership by beginning a massive arms buildup (that the Soviets couldn't afford) and didn't think about getting into too carefully. Had the Soviet Union been through more stable leadership, it would have been less quick to get into the arms race

(2) The US armed the Mujahideen to terrible effect in Afghanistan, and went out of its way to break the aura of invincibility of the Red Army.

(3) The US spent much of the 1970s and 1980s working to peel of the Soviet Union's middle eastern allies. Coupled with CIA sabotage against Russian oil pipelines, Russia's ability to make money was broken beyond repair.

(4) The US aggressively assisted these anti-communist forces.

I'm not describing a military conflict towards China, but things like the above: put ourselves in such a position, and do what we can to engineer difficulties for China. And then when enough pieces are in place, hit them all at once.

The Soviet Union was utterly besieged in the 1980s. On top of that throw in the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Throw in the advances in computers that the USSR was behind on. Had Afghanistan been in the 1960s or Chernobyl never have happened, perhaps the Soviet Union wouldn't have been as weak. It was the summation of all the stressors which brought it down.

That's the model to China.

The good news is, there is every reason to believe China will do our work for us in one particular regard. China is building a modernized military. It will want to use it, somewhere, in the next 10-20 years, to gain lessons on how effective the new technologies work with the doctrines and strategies built around them. The US did something very similar to this in Panama, prior to the Gulf War, that exposed shortcomings that were addressed in time for the larger conflict.

Wherever that intervention on China's part is, we need to make sure that it's their Afghanistan. None of this Obama Administration bullshit that won't give anti-air weapons to Syrian Rebels. That goal won't be to win, but to make the Chinese expend more military power to save face.

Ideally this would be timed with a sharp decline in the Chinese economy, a recent change in leadership, and some engineered (sabotaged) humilation disasters for China like a damn "accidentally" breaking or something and flooding the country side.

That is how we should go about it. Make them feel like they're spinning too many plates at once. But that's YEARS down the line. We're not remotely ready for it.

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I just need to say something reading over this thread.

Over the years here, I've been called a 'neocon' many times, usually by people who don't know the first thing about what actual neocons believe and want, nor what I believe or want. But the real 'neocons' so to speak (or more accurately, their spiritual cousins) are the posters in this thread who would get us into a spat or a conflict with China (or anybody else) without thinking very carefully about the second and third order implications of such a policy at the present.

People should never forget: the Iraq War as a popular war in the US. A very popular war. It was launched with a 73% approval rating, that surged to 85% when the Third Infantry Division took Baghdad (everybody lives a winner). It's support remained relatively high until just after Hurricane Katrina, which was the proverbial "straw" so to speak as the Iraqi insurgency worsened over 2004, 2005, and 2006, making the Bush Administration look wholly incompetent. In 2004, Bush was soundly re-elected and rightfully took his pro-war platform as a mandate. Say what you will about what the war became later, but a LOT of people, myself included by the way, enthusastically supported a war with dubious ends, for many years.

And what became of that war? A trillion plus dollars on dubious ends? A military that was sapped of power as it was forced to downgrade it's conventional deterrence skills to focus on Counter Insurgency? To halve the US's military advantage on it's rivals? To alienate us from our allies for years? To destabilize the wider middle east?

In 2003 we used our power extremely recklessly because 9/11 gave this country something to prove, and it cost is dearly in lives, in dollars, in equipment and in time. Wars of choice are not necessarily disqualify nor a poor use of power, but a war of choice without a clear and achievable outcome in mind is dangerous and ruinous.

To those folks clapping for any kind of confrontation with China today, in 2016, I would implore you to think from a policy perspective, very carefully about what the second and third order effects are. Rosy scenarios got us into the Iraq mess. What are the hard cases for China scenarios?

As I've said elsewhere in the thread, I do want a confrontational relationship with China... when we're ready. In 2016, we're not nearly ready. We're year 4 into a 16 year plan to be ready. This is not some silly showdown with some Arab dictator... this is the defining geopolitical struggle of the 21st century... and this stuff with Russia and Ukraine, or ISIS or Trump... this is the pre-game show. It will not compare to what is ahead, when the world's most technologically advanced, power and richest nation clashes with the world's most populous and second richest, both with very strong nationalist streaks.

Power is a resource. It must be carefully maintained. It must be rebuilt when spent, and when spent, spent for the sake of eventually gaining more power. The Iraq War in retrospect, was an utterly foolish expendiature of our power. We blew so much of it and walked away overall weaker in ways we still haven't recovered from.

Those looking for a fight with China in 2016 would do well to consider where American power is today, and where it will be. We have time. We have a slew of shorter term challenges ahead of us and dealing with them in a parallel nature may be impossible. How, after running this gauntlet and expending power, will we be ready for China on the other side of it? That is the question.

Do not taken American power in any form for granted. Gaining it in the first place was the lifes work of generations of very smart, ambitious, worldly Americans. We're just custodians of it. If we want to pass it on to our kids one day, and not have a world where China occupies its geopolitical center, we need to think carefully about how we are going to spend our own to beat them.

[jdbond592]

I find it hillarious that the title of this is 'Trump just pissed off Beijing' when Taiwan rang him.

Fact that we know that is the issue No one is stupid enough to believe that American presidents never talk to Taiwan.

Trump has also pissed of India. He did make nice with Philippines though.

[Deleted]

If a US-Chinese war was to happen (which I think will at some point), it better happen in the coming years when the US can still secure a relatively easy win.

Don't give them too much time to build up first.

[Guyv3r]

What is china? A high school freshman chick? Pissed because someone talked to someone else on the phone ? Get the fuck over it already.

They get pissed if a President meets with the Dalai Lama.. go figure

[Shadowferal]

Who cares what China thinks. Taiwan is a democracy and China should accept that.

I believe the Taiwanese care very much what China thinks. Especially after China shot a couple of missiles (harmlessly) in their direction to let them know what they think of one particular election.

[Tijuana]

If a US-Chinese war was to happen (which I think will at some point), it better happen in the coming years when the US can still secure a relatively easy win.

Don't give them too much time to build up first.

The notion that the US and China would go to war is pretty silly. Our economies are tied to such a degree that, were our trade to cease, the both of us would have to consider if we could even afford to fight each other.

Also, this notion that China is in charge, and the US needs to dance to their drum, could not be more insane. We are the economic and military super power, not them. They need to worry about pissing us off, not the other way around.

[Traveler Voltin]

China cries over everything they dont like.

[Tijuana]

It seems China filed some sort of complaint with us, over this call. Here is what Trump likely thinks about the complaint filed:

[Puddlejumper]

i feel like you missed my point. I want saying I thought a nuclear war was imminent. I was saying I was legitimately worried that Trump is so bad at foreign policy, and so willfully clueless, that he could realistically precipitate a nuclear war on accident.

[zEmini]

I believe the Taiwanese care very much what China thinks. Especially after China shot a couple of missiles (harmlessly) in their direction to let them know what they think of one particular election.

What a wonderful way to treat the people of Taiwan.

The notion that the US and China would go to war is pretty silly. Our economies are tied to such a degree that, were our trade to cease, the both of us would have to consider if we could even afford to fight each other.

Also, this notion that China is in charge, and the US needs to dance to their drum, could not be more insane. We are the economic and military super power, not them. They need to worry about pissing us off, not the other way around.

Thiss pretty much. The last thing we need to appear as is weak in Chinese diplomatic relations.

[CostinR]

Those looking for a fight with China in 2016 would do well to consider where American power is today, and where it will be. We have time. We have a slew of shorter term challenges ahead of us and dealing with them in a parallel nature may be impossible. How, after running this gauntlet and expending power, will we be ready for China on the other side of it? That is the question.

Then we better start moving towards it instead of limping around led by people who don't understand what's going on. The announcement that Britain will be sending it's new Aircraft carriers to Asia is a very welcome sign. Hillary was a disaster waiting to happen.

Trump sent a message to China that he's done playing around. Good as it will force them to play around more defensively as they don't know what the orange man will do. That uncertainty is useful for the short term.

Meanwhile Japan, Taiwan and South Korea will do whatever the US wants. Japan because Abe is very much against China and will do whatever it takes to stop them and South Korea and Taiwan because they depend on US military assistance to stand alive.

The call Trump with Duterte tells me his advisers realized Obama risked losing a major US ally in the region to China with that feel good stupidity of his and with one call made it clear that a new administration is in charge. TPP was meaningless in terms of keeping US allies happy. It's design was to get manufacturing out of China and into Japan. You can be certain Japan won't sign any deal similar to that with China.

For all the shit Flynn has taken remember that Flynn is an intelligence officer who lost his job because he criticized Obama's foreign policy as being idiotic. He correctly predicted ISIS rising and taking advantage of what Obama was doing.

It would be even better if Trump called Vietnam, they ain't fans of China. TPP is dead and it doesn't matter.

What needs to happen now is for Trump's economic plan, which quite frankly is very similar to what Germany does ( even down to having the exact same corporate tax rate of 15% ), to work. The US needs to get it's manufacturing in order and become the No. 1 Industrial Country in the world again. When that happens China will lose all it's economic might.

[Deleted]

"The media is freaking out because Trump spoke to a democratically elected leader, and this might offend a dictatorship.

Let that sink in."

- Paul Joseph Watson


It is clear at this point that the collective left/never Trumpers are a giant blob of irrationality. No matter what Trump does, it will be bitched about by them. They would have 100% bitched if Trump refused the call.

It is no wonder why more and more former democrats and liberals become disenfranchised. This leftist agenda has become so chaotic, who can take them serious anymore anyway?

[Noxx79]

- Paul Joseph Watson


It is clear at this point that the collective left/never Trumpers are a giant blob of irrationality. No matter what Trump does, it will be bitched about by them. They would have 100% bitched if Trump refused the call.

It is no wonder why more and more former democrats and liberals become disenfranchised. This leftist agenda has become so chaotic, who can take them serious anymore anyway?

Oh sure, like the right was a collective blob of rationality during Obama's tenure. The right agenda has become so chaotic, that they set up Trump as their president, who's not even a true conservative. Who can take them serious any more anyway?

[LaserSharkDFB]

- Paul Joseph Watson


It is clear at this point that the collective left/never Trumpers are a giant blob of irrationality. No matter what Trump does, it will be bitched about by them. They would have 100% bitched if Trump refused the call.

It is no wonder why more and more former democrats and liberals become disenfranchised. This leftist agenda has become so chaotic, who can take them serious anymore anyway?

I dunno, the Republicans acted exactly the same way, if not worse, toward Obama and they seem to be doing okay.

[Deleted]

I dunno, the Republicans acted exactly the same way, if not worse, toward Obama and they seem to be doing okay.

Oh sure, like the right was a collective blob of rationality during Obama's tenure. The right agenda has become so chaotic, that they set up Trump as their president, who's not even a true conservative. Who can take them serious any more anyway?

Which is funny because like it was stated

- Trump is not a real republican
- Trump is hated by many if not most of those republicans who were so vicious against Obama

Oh, and show me the anti-obama riots shortly after the 2008 election.

[LaserSharkDFB]

Which is funny because like it was stated

- Trump is not a real republican
- Trump is hated by many if not most of those republicans who were so vicious against Obama

Oh, and show me the anti-obama riots shortly after the 2008 election.

I have no idea what point you think you're making right now.

[Deleted]

I do want a confrontational relationship with China...

You're really hellbent on making China your worst enemy, even if they weren't interested at all. Despite them being on the other side of the globe and not even remotely interested in American territory of any kind. Even if they conquered the entirety of Asia up to the Ural Mountains and Israel's border, they wouldn't be a threat to the US.

[Surfd]

It is clear at this point that the collective left/never Trumpers are a giant blob of irrationality. No matter what Trump does, it will be bitched about by them. They would have 100% bitched if Trump refused the call.

Because waking up one morning and thinking to yourself "hey, I feel like pissing on 40+ years of carefully orchestrated diplomacy that has kept an extremely, extremely fucking important region of the world relatively stable at literally almost no cost to any of the parties involved. Better arrange a meeting with Taiwan so I can spit in Chinas face" seems like a terribly rational thing to to?

And no, absolutely nobody would have bitched about refusing the call. Or even bitched about taking the call if he had done it through the proper diplomatic channels, and not immediately crowed about it all over twitter the second after he did it in the worst possible way.

[Deleted]

You're really hellbent on making China your worst enemy, even if they weren't interested at all. Despite them being on the other side of the globe and not even remotely interested in American territory of any kind. Even if they conquered the entirety of Asia up to the Ural Mountains and Israel's border, they wouldn't be a threat to the US.

China is a threat to US dominance, because US dominance requires the pacific and the Atlantic oceans to be 'important'.
Or less obliquely put, an Eurasian Hegemony can exert influence over 70% off the worlds population using nothing but land and air power, thereby negating the US navy. That's the extreme end of the scenario of course, in reality a regional hegemon, (exerting influence over only Asia or Europe) would be scary as it could potentially challenge the US.
That's why China needs to be boxed in.

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Because waking up one morning and thinking to yourself "hey, I feel like pissing on 40+ years of carefully orchestrated diplomacy that has kept an extremely, extremely fucking important region of the world relatively stable at literally almost no cost to any of the parties involved. Better arrange a meeting with Taiwan so I can spit in Chinas face" seems like a terribly rational thing to to?

And no, absolutely nobody would have bitched about refusing the call. Or even bitched about taking the call if he had done it through the proper diplomatic channels, and not immediately crowed about it all over twitter the second after he did it in the worst possible way.

The time difference alone means that this call was not a 'spurious' action - It was undoubtedly intentional policy from Trump's policy advisers, whom we know include a bunch of hardliners.
And he was also undoubtedly told what talking about it on twitter meant - Because that was the very purpose of the call in the first place.
His following twitter rant might be unscripted though.

[Orlong]

Because waking up one morning and thinking to yourself "hey, I feel like pissing on 40+ years of carefully orchestrated diplomacy that has kept an extremely, extremely fucking important region of the world relatively stable at literally almost no cost to any of the parties involved. Better arrange a meeting with Taiwan so I can spit in Chinas face" seems like a terribly rational thing to to?

And no, absolutely nobody would have bitched about refusing the call. Or even bitched about taking the call if he had done it through the proper diplomatic channels, and not immediately crowed about it all over twitter the second after he did it in the worst possible way.

Whats the proper way to make a phone call? I only know of one way. Dial the number of the person you want to talk to