Baltic states and Russia : is there a real risk ?

[Deleted]

Estonia, Latvia had more russian citizen after they became part of USSR, demographics show that. Even in Crimea, there were only 33 percent of russians in 1897 (65 % in 2014). So yes, of course " conquered " lands (mostly border countries) see lots of the " conquering " country people come to " assimilate " the new territory, and it's the actual chinese strategy with Tibet to drown it with chinese building the railway to send more " Han " there.
It's part of the matter in fact ... Some will use that argument " Yes but 30 % of the population is nationality, they are our brothers, let's take that brother-country back " and will ask their " brothers " to cry, claim they're not considered where they are, not equals ...

I'm not saying Russia takes them by force, I am suggesting the exact thing Crimea did, They vote, they rejoin. One of the biggest problems in Eastern Europe is Balkanisation and the West's exasperation of that.

[Fadeslol]

So tell me Skroe, Why are most of those missiles in Russia itself, and placed defensively around Russia, While America has done the exact opposite. No need to offend you, But Americans have been a detriment to Europe as much as Russia has during the latter half of the century. In fact, the current Immigration wave is entirely your fault.

We told Russia we wouldnt put any troops east of Germany BUT OH HEY now we got Missiles in RO

[Slant]

Russians say the same about Crimea and the Baltics...

Don't actually care about Crimea, but the baltics are a different beast. Estonia has more in common with Finland than with Russia. But since this is about China, I'm not saying we should give them whatever they want. I'm saying people are not understanding how their minds work properly. It's not expansionistic by nature. And it's hardly comparable to the Russian dream to recreate the USSR.

[caervek]

I'm arguing it's an inevitable thing.

Inevitible means that it is unavoidable, not that it's extremely unlikely to happen (as is the case here).

There is no rescuing Russia from it's decline

Probably because it doesn't need rescuing...

It is something that is a fact and we need to construct policy to respond to that fact.

No it's not a fact, it's a fallacy, one you have been duped/hoodwinked into believing by politicians/media/etc so you will support wasting so much money/resources on it when they could be used against China (or on something constructive).

If for some insane reason Russia invaded Estonia (you're more likely to see China invade Japan so worry about that) it could easily be slapped down without any US assistance.

When Russia breaks up, it will be the story of the decade

Russia is in no danger of collapsing or breaking up (seriously what would it even break up into, it's one of the most solid countries in existence, you would be more likely to see another US civil war than a Russian breakup.

[Fadeslol]

I'm not kidding you. China isn't "expanding". They're dealing with what they consider their own all along. You need to go back in history quite a few centuries, if not millenia, to see what places they call their own, but once you've done that, you have a pretty clear picture of what they're actually interested in. Hint: It's not Japan itself. Those rocks they're fighting about? Ironically, they're just that... rocks. You couldn't even live on them. Most of them anyway. This drama about "China pushing into the South China Sea" is a bit ridiculous, if you ask me. It's not even the same ballpark as European expansionism, you can squabble over it if you like, but this is not really worth talking about. The most interesting debate regarding that is still and will always be Taiwan. And it's a pretty good example on how the Chinese mind ticks.

Your spiel about the Crimea is getting old. Russia just made a grab and that's it. Blame the EU if you like, ignore the thousands of Ukrainians protesting for that change. Perhaps the EU didn't reject any political possibilities enough. But then, nobody told the EU that they should forbid another nation to make a democratic decision. Our bad. We'll make sure to conform to Russian imperialistic ideology from now on... on, right, we don't actually give two fucks about what Russia wants. Guess we'll continue to be the free Western world that doesn't let authoritarian regimes tell us what to do.

China's military is hardly up to date. And how else do you want to put them into check? The US is all about hardware and heavy equipment, China's got the upper hand in cyber warfare. Mostly because they got a headstart in professionalising hacking, while the US still seems unsure on how to approach the subject. I'm still waiting for that big "Chinese Gvt. hack" initiated from the US. There are cyberattack maps on the web that show real time data of these attacks, they go FROM China TO the US but rarely FROM the US TO China.

1) Yes China is expanding and ripping the US off. Russia isn't doing anything to the US.

2) Facts are facts. It was the EU's fault. Hey lets have a war on police like we are trying to do in the US now.

3) China military is up to date thanks to the Clintons.

Update: China just released Chengdu J-20 Stealth Fighter which can take on the f-35

[Deleted]

Because Russia's defense strategy is "border defense" and the US's strategy is "forward defense."

Forward defense is congruent with the US's economic place in the world. As the world's largest economy and most powerful country, our interests are chiefly defined by our extremely wide economic interests, which are global in nature. So we've shaped a military to defend those interests over the decades, where those interests lie. US military power is first and foremost, a naval and aviation power, which allow it to ensure trade.

To put it another way, the manner in which the US conducts it's defense strategy, where our border so to speak, is the Russian border, rather than the coast of the US, is an emergent property of it's economic and political role in the world. As China rises over the next 20 years to challenge the United States' global position, we're likely to see the same thing of them, because them having such a defense strategy would be an emergent property of their position.

No, in short, you're defending America's Imperialistic tendencies while damning Russia's defensive position. Like I said Skroe. I don't see Russian Missiles positioned in MY country, but I do see American bases that America whines about if we removed.

I have no love for America, it's stranglehold over Britain's Geo-politics is evident and it's Anti-British Sentiment clear. I'd rather have a Euro-positive Russia than an Anti-Britain America. And they have been that since poor Teddy died.

[Slant]

1) Yes China is expanding and ripping the US off. Russia isn't doing anything to the US.

2) Facts are facts. It was the EU's fault. Hey lets have a war on police like we are trying to do in the US now.

3) China military is up to date thanks to Hillary Clinton.

1. The moon is really made of cheese
2. I am the richest man on the planet
3. Arsenal is the greatest football team in Europe

See, I can state things, too. Doesn't make them reality, just means I pretend they are facts when they're not. You'll have to do a bit more work than that to convince me that you actually have more than a 2s thought on the matter.

[caervek]

Because Russia's defense strategy is "border defense" and the US's strategy is "forward defense."

And that is why, just a quarter century after the death of the "evil empire" the USA is now viewed less favourably than Russia. Going around the world bullying/attacking people gives you a bad rep, staying at home and not threatening people doesn't.

[Deleted]

Don't actually care about Crimea, but the baltics are a different beast. Estonia has more in common with Finland than with Russia. But since this is about China, I'm not saying we should give them whatever they want. I'm saying people are not understanding how their minds work properly. It's not expansionistic by nature. And it's hardly comparable to the Russian dream to recreate the USSR.

One of the largest issues Russia is facing right now is to avoid the tribalism that is natural to Eastern European states. Many in South Russia are Muslims, Russia doesn't want those Muslims falling under the sway of Saudi Arabian Islamists. Estonia provides them fucking nothing but ANOTHER tribe to vie for power.

China on the other hand DOES have the dream of uniting China, so Taiwan is in direct danger.

[Skroe]

That's downright false. Open up the Gas routes again, trade with them for steel instead of China. BAM, we have a Russia whose Economy will be growing again and people like you won't need to worry about a desperate wolf eating his children.

Also, Russia breaking up into what exactly? At best, Russia might shrink, but Russia is a very old Political idea. It sounds like you very much think in the Cold War logic.

Oil and Gas are in extreme declines and "opening them up" won't do enough to rescue a state that has had 20 years to diversity away from "stuff that it can dig out of the ground" and in fact has gone in the opposite direction. Even if Oil returned to about $100 a barrel, it would not be sustainable for Russia to finance itself, especially as it's broader diversified industry and human capital declines. Or maybe you missed that yet another Soyuz (Progress) space vehicle blew up?

Also break up into what? How's this.



Or something like that. There are various proposals that go around.

Cold War logic? Quite the contrary I ACTUALLY view China as the far greater threat to the United States to Russia in the long term. But unlike some posters I'm willing to separate near term and long term agendas. The main geopolitical struggle of the 21st century is the conflict between the United States and China over the order of the International System. But between now and that struggle reaching it's peak, the US has to run a gauntlet.

-It has to deal with the "Legacy of World War I" as the Arab world's disruption continues and islamic radicalism perpetuates itself in new organizations.

-It has to deal with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile program

-It has to deal with Iran's nuclear program again, one day, and its ballistic missile program.

-It has to deal with the power gap between India and Pakistan getting wider and wider, causing South Asian instability.

-It has to deal with major changes in Russia

And at the other end of all of this, is the Challenge of China, the real Second Cold War.

This stuff with Russia... it's a way point to something worse.

[caervek]

And it's hardly comparable to the Russian dream to recreate the USSR.

Which Russians dream that? the ones on this forum don't seem to, Putin doesn't, most of the Russian tourists/immigrants I have met don't, the Russian polls/elections don't support the idea.

[Fadeslol]

No, in short, you're defending America's Imperialistic tendencies while damning Russia's defensive position. Like I said Skroe. I don't see Russian Missiles positioned in MY country, but I do see American bases that America whines about if we removed.

I have no love for America, it's stranglehold over Britain's Geo-politics is evident and it's Anti-British Sentiment clear. I'd rather have a Euro-positive Russia than an Anti-Britain America. And they have been that since poor Teddy died.

I'm just curious "Anti-British Sentiment clear"? Can you define that.

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And that is why, just a quarter century after the death of the "evil empire" the USA is now viewed less favourably than Russia. Going around the world bullying/attacking people gives you a bad rep, staying at home and not threatening people doesn't.

"the USA is now viewed less favourably than Russia" I can see where people say that but don't be closed minded. We are going to fix our relations.

[caervek]

Also break up into what? How's this.

Pretty comical and never going to happen, as I said the USA has a better chance of breaking up than Russia does, and that's hardly likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

[Fadeslol]

Which Russians dream that? the ones on this forum don't seem to, Putin doesn't, most of the Russian tourists/immigrants I have met don't, the Russian polls/elections don't support the idea.

It's because Russia doesn't submit to the EU that is why.

[Skroe]

Inevitible means that it is unavoidable, not that it's extremely unlikely to happen (as is the case here).



Probably because it doesn't need rescuing...



No it's not a fact, it's a fallacy, one you have been duped/hoodwinked into believing by politicians/media/etc so you will support wasting so much money/resources on it when they could be used against China (or on something constructive).

If for some insane reason Russia invaded Estonia (you're more likely to see China invade Japan so worry about that) it could easily be slapped down without any US assistance.




Russia is in no danger of collapsing or breaking up (seriously what would it even break up into, it's one of the most solid countries in existence, you would be more likely to see another US civil war than a Russian breakup.

This is all an elaborate way of saying "I hope these US think tanks are wrong".

They probably aren't. And if they are, then that's fine too, because the US will avoid a major mid 2020s geopolitical crisis. Don't be under the mistaken impression I "want" something and am projecting my desires for it. Rather, the metrics against Russia are so bad, and so many different independent sources have forecasted it's decline, to not prepare for that eventuality from a policy perspective would be dangerous in itself.

And regardless of that, we should do our part to express our interests towards them, no matter the effect of Russia. Russia's bad behavior must be repudiated, and if that weakens the Russian state further, so be it.

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Pretty comical and never going to happen, as I said the USA has a better chance of breaking up than Russia does, and that's hardly likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

You should go work for STRATFOR or Rand, Cassandra.

[Deleted]

<snip>

Your logic is circular. You complain about Russia becoming a mad dog state that will break down, yet you want to force it's economy into a stranglehold to force it to become a mad dog state.

You complain about America facing radical islamists, yet it's American intelligence agencies and the American government that is funding and supporting these radicals.

Tell me Skoe, when Iran and Syria proposed a gas pipeline backed by Russians, why did America go in to destabilize Syria? Because America is FUNDING the deterioration of Russia to further it's own Imperialist goals. To America, Britain and the other forces in NATO are Vassal states.A Strong, pro-trade pro-cooperation Russia would weaken America's hold over it's Vassals.

Tell me, what would America do if Britain went into a Steel trade agreement with Russia?

[Skroe]

And that is why, just a quarter century after the death of the "evil empire" the USA is now viewed less favourably than Russia. Going around the world bullying/attacking people gives you a bad rep, staying at home and not threatening people doesn't.

The United Kingdom has abandoned its responsibility to a world it played a great hand in crafting.

You people are not an example for which the United States should emulate in anyway.

[Deleted]

The United Kingdom has abandoned its responsibility to a world it played a great hand in crafting.

You people are not an example for which the United States should emulate in anyway.

And the Americans Back alley Imperialism is better?

[The Emperor]

Do you really take Skroe seriously? He is the man out of time, probably a Cold War Era. That and his typical neoconservative outlook coupled with ability to support any war and bullying conducted by the US makes him a proper propagandist, there's no reason to argue with him.
I remember the time he was 100 percent sure Clinton would win and told Trump supporters to go back to their trailer parks. One of his latest, $100 to Jill Stein recount. Why would you even consider taking this poor brainwashed man seriously is beyond me

[Fadeslol]

Your logic is circular. You complain about Russia becoming a mad dog state that will break down, yet you want to force it's economy into a stranglehold to force it to become a mad dog state.

You complain about America facing radical islamists, yet it's American intelligence agencies and the American government that is funding and supporting these radicals.

Tell me Skoe, when Iran and Syria proposed a gas pipeline backed by Russians, why did America go in to destabilize Syria? Because America is FUNDING the deterioration of Russia to further it's own Imperialist goals. To America, Britain and the other forces in NATO are Vassal states.A Strong, pro-trade pro-cooperation Russia would weaken America's hold over it's Vassals.

Tell me, what would America do if Britain went into a Steel trade agreement with Russia?

1+ except for the last post. England is our strongest ally, we will help eachother. We have Trump now, not Obama.

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Do you really take Skroe seriously? He is the man out of time, probably a Cold War Era. That and his typical neoconservative outlook coupled with ability to support any war and bullying conducted by the US makes him a proper propagandist, there's no reason to argue with him.
I remember the time he was 100 percent sure Clinton would win and told Trump supporters to go back to their trailer parks. One of his latest, $100 to Jill Stein recount. Why would you even consider taking this poor brainwashed man seriously is beyond me

Yes i take him serious, he has some good post but i disagree with him on this.