[Speculation] Player activity at WoD levels?

[Trapped]

''This display shows the average player activity per faction per week for the specified server.It only shows the averages from entries from within 'prime time' which is considered here between the hours of 6PM and 11PM GAME TIME. The hours are based on the IN GAME time, not EARTH time. Data is collected using the latest version of the CensusPlus UI Mod.''

So yeah, this data is completely useless because only a handful of people actually use that addon. The vast majority of players aren't represented in that graph. Though player activity probably is declining, because not everyone keeps playing throughout the expansion/patch. I personally haven't noticed WoW feeling more empty, just that the login queues have gone away

It shows activity during peak hours (in that 5 hour time block). Anyone that runs the addon and does a Census Snapshot during that time block will have its data added to the census report for activity during that time. You can look at a high pop realm if you want to see more user-submitted data. I don't know why you bolded those words, we're all aware of the method the data is collected.

Here's the graph for player activity just on US-Stormrage, a VERY highly populated realm: http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=57

Around Legion launch, it was at around 8500 active players during peak hours, down to 4500 active players as of a week ago.

[Deleted]

I really don't get why it matters what type of players use that mod to collect data, or how you would know. The mod doesn't collect data based on what that person is doing, it probably uses a string of /who's to see how many people are online at the given time frame, and the graph I posted was realm activity for only peak hours (18:00-22:00). Whether a casual pet battler or a hardcore Mythic raider is online, it will detect them. It doesn't just detect other people using the mod/addon, it tracks everyone.

I played since vanilal beta, never heard of the mod before. No one else I know had either.

Its likely that the people who have this mod are hardcore players. That some random who just levels toons will have bothered to have downloaded this is incredibly unlikely, so it will be measuring hardcore players in their hardcore environments. i.e. a few key servers and a few key guilds.

Those players have remained static over time - as we already know from the numbers clearing raids.

Given legion is focused on pleasing everyone but those players, their data doesn't mean much.

To find out of legion is losing subs compared to wod, you'd need data from the type of players who left wod and see if they were still here.

I have been playing for 10 years and I have never seen a new expansion die out this fast.

I suspect that you are seeing the mythic end be turned off by legions focus on the rest of the playerbase. Keeping AP and AP up is brutal and will cause burn out. Casual players don't care about that, they like having stuff to do.

[A Chozo]

Well, it's natural. Game is old, WoD took a huge chunk of the playerbase away...

everyone thought they could be little illidans. Then they faced the fact that there were millions of little illidans and they stoped playing. and because daily quests are getting repetitive.

Hah! Soon I'll be the only Little Illidan!

[Deleted]

It shows activity during peak hours (in that 5 hour time block). Anyone that runs the addon and does a Census Snapshot during that time block will have its data added to the census report for activity during that time. You can look at a high pop realm if you want to see more user-submitted data. I don't know why you bolded those words, we're all aware of the method the data is collected.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/eu_realmstats.php

As I suspected a lot of the low ranked/non mythic raiding servers have no data for them. The census mod is just collecting data from hardcore players on hardcore realms.

[saeros]

Casual players don't care about that, they like having stuff to do.

you mean "they like they illusion of meaningful progression due to ap rewards".
because the "stuff to do" will still be there, even if the reward is different from ap or if ap is capped.

and still, it is incoherent that casuals, i.e. people that don't care much about progression, must have an endless progression system to enjoy the game, ruining it for people that actually care about progression.

[Deleted]

you mean "they like they illusion of meaningful progression due to ap rewards".
because the "stuff to do" will still be there, even if the reward is different from ap or if ap is capped.

and still, it is incoherent that casuals, i.e. people that don't care much about progression, must have an endless progression system to enjoy the game, ruining it for people that actually care about progression.

While it might be incoherent, its also true.

Players on average like things like levelling systems. They don't like things like mythic raids.

[Perryn]

With the whole crossrealm thing it's hard to tell directly, most polling sites won't have access to accurate data either, so only thing I can go from is anecdotally; there's more activity in my guild than at the same time last expansion (at an equal point) and I don't see any delays in finding groups either. And, when doing the world quests there's always plenty of people around doing them as well (albeit this could ofc be skewed due to crossrealm).

So the only people that know for certain will be Blizzard, I guess.

[Trapped]

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/eu_realmstats.php

As I suspected a lot of the low ranked/non mythic raiding servers have no data for them. The census mod is just collecting data from hardcore players on hardcore realms.

How do you come to that conclusion? It gathers player data from all levels 1-110 by doing a series of /who commands from level 110 down to 1. Surely lower pop realms will have less Census Mod users than a high pop one, but like I said, you can view each realm individually if you'd like.

[Deleted]

How do you come to that conclusion? It gathers player data from all levels 1-110 by doing a series of /who commands from level 110 down to 1. Surely lower pop realms will have less Census Mod users than a high pop one, but like I said, you can view each realm individually if you'd like.

There are about 50% of the realms with NO data mate.

[Osmeric]

So yeah, this data is completely useless because only a handful of people actually use that addon. The vast majority of players aren't represented in that graph.

It uses an add-on, but it doesn't just count people who are using the add-on. The add-on uses /who to look at everyone (in your faction) who is currently logged in.

[Deleted]

It uses an add-on, but it doesn't just count people who are using the add-on. The add-on uses /who to look at everyone (in your faction) who is currently logged in.

But only on some realms, and those realms are primarily the hardcore/mythic raiding ones.

[Trapped]

There are about 50% of the realms with NO data mate.

Maybe this post should've been about NA realms then I suppose. That Census Mod isn't localized to support all languages, and if those realms aren't localized yet, they won't have any data. However, I am seeing all 246 North American realms listed at http://www.warcraftrealms.com/realmstats.php?sort=Total

North American realms consist of:
226 US realms
5 Brazilian realms
3 Latin American realms
12 Oceanic Realms.

For a total of 246.

[Pann]

There are about 50% of the realms with NO data mate.

That simply means that no or not enough scans have been run on those realms. Warcraftrealms have never been about determining the total population but has proved, on many occasions, to accurately predict trends in sub numbers.

[Trapped]

It uses an add-on, but it doesn't just count people who are using the add-on. The add-on uses /who to look at everyone (in your faction) who is currently logged in.

Yeah I already explained that to him/her. It would indeed be pointless data if that addon only tracked people who are also using that addon.

[Deleted]

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/WoW_population_by_country

Righto, about 75% of the total possible population is missing from the data.

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That simply means that no or not enough scans have been run on those realms. Warcraftrealms have never been about determining the total population but has proved, on many occasions, to accurately predict trends in sub numbers.

Yes, but if the expansion is about catering to casual players, and only hardcore raiding realms are collecting data, then it won't tell you if the goal of legion (keeping casuals around) has been achieved.

[Osmeric]

Yes, but if the expansion is about catering to casual players, and only hardcore raiding realms are collecting data, then it won't tell you if the goal of legion (keeping casuals around) has been achieved.

Well, we can ask if the expansion is likely to have retained casual players. I suspect it hasn't been very good at that, since either raiding or M+ is the focus of end game, and neither of those are terribly well suited to mediocre and grind-averse players. M+ in particular is horrible for someone who has a fear of looking bad in front of friends -- one slip and you've screwed your friends out of both (extra) loot and their keystone.

All the randomly queuable content in Legion is overshadowed by world quests. So for the player who had a LFG/LFR playstyle, the end game devolves to just WQs, and they get repetitive very quickly.

[saeros]

While it might be incoherent, its also true.

Players on average like things like levelling systems. They don't like things like mythic raids.

this is what i said.
they don't care about the content, the content is still there, they just care about the useless* progression. while they act like "you don't like the rewards system? just look at me enjoying the game not caring about rewards", but they get mad if you want to get the rewards system fixed and they feel like you are removing their content.

*useless because if the content you are doing is not progressing in difficulty, having a progression on your power is useless.

[Deleted]

this is what i said.
they don't care about the content, the content is still there, they just care about the useless* progression. while they act like "you don't like the rewards system? just look at me enjoying the game not caring about rewards", but they get mad if you want to get the rewards system fixed and they feel like you are removing their content.

*useless because if the content you are doing is not progressing in difficulty, having a progression on your power is useless.

Yet, people like that anyway.

Most players like to go up in power relative to a fixed standard, they don't want extra difficulty.

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Well, we can ask if the expansion is likely to have retained casual players. I suspect it hasn't been very good at that, since either raiding or M+ is the focus of end game, and neither of those are terribly well suited to mediocre and grind-averse players. M+ in particular is horrible for someone who has a fear of looking bad in front of friends -- one slip and you've screwed your friends out of both (extra) loot and their keystone.

All the randomly queuable content in Legion is overshadowed by world quests. So for the player who had a LFG/LFR playstyle, the end game devolves to just WQs, and they get repetitive very quickly.

And suramar.

I suspect that the chinese subs will have held up. The far east loves their grindy shit.

[Kolvarg]

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/WoW_population_by_country

Righto, about 75% of the total possible population is missing from the data.

It doesn't matter that it doesn't have data on the entire population, because that is true for every piece of data. Even if it's just data on 50% of the realms, especially when we're talking about the more popular and populated realms, more often than not it has consistent data on those realm. It's not unreasonable to assume the remaining realms will have similar data, especially when we have data on the presumably best case scenario (most populated realms).

It does not represent the entire population, but it does represent fluctuations in the same given piece of population.

And if you actually go compare the subscription line with the faction/class activity lines, you'll find that while they obviously don't match in numbers, they generally do tend to match the fluctuations (growth and decline) fairly often.

For instance, WoD launch:


Obviously this doesn't mean the data IS true, and that it proves undoubtfully that sub numbers are also down. That doesn't mean we can't consider it at all, because it does follow the reasonably expected trend.

[Moozart]

ccording to this alliance seem to be having FAR more fun in Legion