Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[impending doom]

Sorry if I missed this while reading through the thread. But how did you determine the values for your KP per dungeon boss?

From OP:

To explain the KP system a little: each time I find certain activity from feed data, that can be raid boss kill, weekly chest loot, or mythic+ epics, I increase the KP counter for that character. There is also alot of untrackable activities like emissary quests, HC dung's, pvp chests, world boss etc and to balance those I give 2 KP daily to everyone, but keep in mind that these are all high ilvl characters, so they get majority of legendaries from raids and mythic+. All these weights are based on average drop rates (see chart at bottom) but it obviously isn't very accurate for those untrackable activities or for mythic+. But for now it gives a Rough estimation.

So for raid boss the KP weight is quite accurate, but for 5man dungeon bosses there isn't a way to directly track this, it's just part of the daily 2 KP estimation.

[RaimaNd]

After the third legendary all i had to do for the 4. was killing 7 lfr bosses. Statistics are a bitch.^^

[Polarthief]

Oh this is good to know. Blizz is basically telling me to reroll because I got 3 AWFUL legendaries that aren't even being buffed next patch, rip me

[Elpigeon]

From OP:



So for raid boss the KP weight is quite accurate, but for 5man dungeon bosses there isn't a way to directly track this, it's just part of the daily 2 KP estimation.

So essentially from what I'm seeing is your estimating a mythic boss has 1.5x the chance of a legendary drop than a heroic raid boss, heroic 1.33x normal, and so on? And this is where you get these weights from?

[TheKaz]

While strictly an empirical observation, there definitely appears to be diminishing returns on bad luck protection. It seems to get a whole lot worse past 4 legendaries on a single character, also. Since the supposedly removal of the four legendary per character soft cap the week before Thanksgiving, 0 people in my guild have gone from 4 to 5. Of the 9 of us with 4 legendaries, 2 of us are what I would consider to be "Heavy M+ grinders" with 150 dungeons cleared (at least) in the past month. I'm now convinced one of the following is true:
(1) There is strong diminishing returns on bad luck protection beyond four legendaries
(2) Blizzard never actually turned on bad luck protection after they said they did so the week prior to Thanksgiving (which means legendary drop rate past legendary #4 is really, really low and unassisted by bad luck protection)
(3) The formula for bad luck protection was stealth-adjusted to not grow as quickly from M+ dungeons completed

[impending doom]

So essentially from what I'm seeing is your estimating a mythic boss has 1.5x the chance of a legendary drop than a heroic raid boss, heroic 1.33x normal, and so on? And this is where you get these weights from?

Yes this is the approximate ratio seen in statistics over few weeks.

For those who wonder how important is the accuracy of these KP weights, well I've tested with several very different KP values but the curves always look almost the same relative to each other, so the KP weights don't have much influence on dimishing returns effect. The missing KP from untrackable events is another issue, but I don't think the number of legendaries alone have a big effect on how much people do this untrackable content.

[Deleted]

Got 4 of them here:
1 neck
2 bad ring ...
3 BM wrist
4 BM boots

All of them from M+.
Last one I got was at 27 artefact traits currently at 43 traits. Over 800 M+ done at a steady pace.
Nothing from the other content that I do daily ...

Some time later ... over 900 M+ dungeons done and 5th dropped the good BM ring this time. Also done all the relevant content and the drop still came from M+.

[mindwalks]

Eh, while I'm not coming from any backed up statistical standpoint, I have three characters each with 3 legendaries, and each with severely distinct amounts of time played.

Main - 396 M+ completed, doing 4/7M and 7/7H each week plus the dailies since launch. All 3 legendaries came from daily cache/weekly chest.

Alt 1 - 29 M+ completed, having done one full 7/7N clear, and one 6/7 heroic clear. Every daily since mid september. All 3 legendaries came from daily caches.

Alt 2 - 59 M+ completed, having done full 7/7H clears and daily caches since exactly one month ago. 1 legendary from cache, 2 from regular mythic drops.

However bad luck protection works, it seems to me that Mythic+ is taken into account the least, with daily passing/easier content (such as regular mythic dungeon clears) counting the most. So while no matter how hard I try on my main, it seems that legendaries simply avoid it. Conversely, a guildie of mine just received his 5th, exactly one week after receiving his 4th, he also received his 3rd multiple weeks after my main had received his; both of us have cleared pretty much the same content since launch, except he has half the amount of M+ that I have done.

The system, quite simply, is one of the worst devised.

[Magnosh]

pls link blue post saying that

- - - Updated - - -



It shouldnt matter to what some random wow player is wearing. If you get a utility legendary it isnt worthless it just isnt the best one. You are not required to have legendaries in legion to clear through the game, they are extra bonuses

Right here:http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/...Dev-Interviews

''The first tier is balanced around most players not having a legendary item. Later tiers will be tuned around most players having a legendary item.'' Blizzard also said they dont count tiers as we do, so Emerald was probably their first tier while Nighthold the second.

[TITAN308]

Right here:http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/...Dev-Interviews

''Later tiers will be tuned around most players having a legendary item.''

And? Almost everyone WILL have a legendary item.

[Elpigeon]

This. You still won't be as competitive without the top legionaries, so you wind up farming until you get the good ones.

[Magnosh]

And? Almost everyone WILL have a legendary item.

And what? You asked for a blue saying that raid tuning was going to be taking into consideration legendary items and I linked it to you. Now it doesn't mater?

If the legendary you have isn't a DPS increase (in a damage dealer scenario) its like you dont have one. A couple of my raiders are reroling the same class so they can have another chance at proper legendary items, me included. This is not fun playstyle and it's a burden not knowing if you will or not be lucky on your next legendary drop.

[kryptik93]

And? Almost everyone WILL have a legendary item.

Right, because wearing a prydaz on mythic guldan is going to be the equivalent of a bis that's a 7-10% dps increase, get your head out of your ass and stop defending this flawed system please. they have done nothing but lie so far.

[Axelond]

Just plugged in Ayeri(he is 3rd in world on AP), He just got his 7th legendary and he has 8744 kill points. According to these numbers he should barely have 5. So numbers don't match, either mythic+ is underrated (he has 1252 mythic+ clears) or raid kills are overvalued (he has almost no raid bosses killed).

[Deleted]

Just plugged in Ayeri(he is 3rd in world on AP), He just got his 7th legendary and he has 8744 kill points. According to these numbers he should barely have 5. So numbers don't match, either mythic+ is underrated (he has 1252 mythic+ clears) or raid kills are overvalued (he has almost no raid bosses killed).

Anecdotical evidence.
Do you know anyone who got 3 legendaries on a single day ? I know two persons who did after the first fix.

[Stiven]

22 hours on my alt warrior. Got second legendary today. Doing only WQ on him.

http://imgur.com/a/GDP5N

Did they buff drop rate ?

[impending doom]

Just plugged in Ayeri(he is 3rd in world on AP), He just got his 7th legendary and he has 8744 kill points. According to these numbers he should barely have 5. So numbers don't match, either mythic+ is underrated (he has 1252 mythic+ clears) or raid kills are overvalued (he has almost no raid bosses killed).

Firstly looking at only single person will give extremely inaccurate presentation of true avg drop rates. Secondly there was a softcap at 4 which probably affected him alot too and that was outside the bounds of these statistics. Also the "Estimated legendaries per KP" in the KP calculator is based on Nov 24 update, which as explained in Dec 15 update was not very accurate to estimate true drop rate, and more accurate number for dimishing returns is probably closer to 50% increase rather than 100%.

Those Dec 15 stats also say that to have a 50% chance to get 2nd legendary, you would need 430KP. Now if he would've needed that same amount for each legendary then he should have now 20 legendaries.

[Eapoe]

Guild member and I have roughly the same amount of things completed. He now has 5 legendaries, 2 BiS for MM (warbelt and Ulr's), 1 BiS for BM (bracers), 2 utility (Prydaz and Roots). I have 3, 2 utility (Shadow Hunter and Sephuz), and a dps one (Zevrim's). Due to RNG, I am now majorly behind another player when we are equally skilled. He also now has the option to go for different spec loot, so now I will be behind on m+ potential as well. Even his utility items are better in that he gets a bubble that causes more effective healing on a shorter CD than my FD one will give.
Not a good system at all in my opinion.

[Mykk]

Few weeks ago when i found out this thread and was around 650 mythic+ farmed and now im at 813 mythic+. Past 2 weeks 90% of my myhtic+ are from 7-9. Here and there 4-6 and couple +10's

Anyhow this is starting getting fuckin retarded. I've never expierenced such shit in any game. I've farmed over 30M AP without legendary

[Echocho]

Few weeks ago when i found out this thread and was around 650 mythic+ farmed and now im at 813 mythic+. Past 2 weeks 90% of my myhtic+ are from 7-9. Here and there 4-6 and couple +10's

Anyhow this is starting getting fuckin retarded. I've never expierenced such shit in any game. I've farmed over 30M AP without legendary

If only we could know where the items dropped somehow and what the chances of them dropping was, you know like it used to before this warforging random socket bullshit started this whole mess.