Is hardcore raiding scene declining? Let's find out

[Deleted]

So, we got about 10 days before next raid release and we have 151 Helya kills. When ToV opened we had close to 800 Xavius kills. Are we going to get more Helya kills before the next raid? Can we get at least 600 kiils in next 10 days? We'll see.

But let's look at top-100 wowprogress Xavius kills.

Out of 100 guilds that killed Xavius there are still 25 that didn't kill Helya. Do you want to know them to be sure that I'm not lying? Here's list for you, my friend:

/guild/eu/ravencrest/Guild+GHTTB
/guild/eu/tarren-mill/Prime
/guild/eu/ysondre/Waít+for+it
/guild/eu/tarren-mill/Nihilum
/guild/us/barthilas/Enigma
/guild/eu/черный-шрам/Рубль+идёт+вверх
/guild/eu/kazzak/Pwnanza
/guild/eu/kazzak/Dragon
/guild/eu/thrall/Gambit
/guild/eu/draenor/Numen
/guild/eu/zul-jin/Reload
/guild/eu/eredar/untitled+spreadsheet
/guild/eu/пиратская-бухта/Рассвет
/guild/eu/frostwhisper/EI+JATKOON
/guild/eu/blackmoore/Hope+n+Despair
/guild/us/proudmoore/Champion
/guild/us/proudmoore/Eternal+Kingdom
/guild/eu/hyjal/Maze
/guild/eu/stormrage/Bad+Luck
/guild/us/arthas/Nerd+Crew
/guild/eu/sargeras/Unité
/guild/eu/illidan/Source
/guild/eu/dalaran/Bloody+Tearz
/guild/eu/kazzak/RnG
/guild/eu/kazzak/PogChamp

Ok, there are actually 24 of them because of Prestige Gaming shenanigans. Huge difference.

But let's go deeper and check players of that guilds. We know 386 players total(missing ones transferred somewhere). How many of them didn't log on their character this year that took part in Xavius first kill? 87. It's 22.5% if math is hard for you. Players? We have this list:

/character/eu/tarren-mill/Dogtooth - 2016-11-10 02:03:09 +0000
/character/eu/tarren-mill/Impøse - 2016-11-16 22:42:29 +0000
/character/eu/tarren-mill/Zedb - 2016-11-09 15:19:50 +0000
/character/eu/ysondre/Maystìne - 2016-12-14 22:11:03 +0000
/character/eu/tarren-mill/Tjxdh - 2016-11-28 21:23:35 +0000
/character/eu/tarren-mill/Jinvokm - 2016-12-29 17:03:37 +0000
/character/eu/tarren-mill/Cuteqtz - 2016-11-12 15:40:30 +0000
/character/us/barthilas/Vaporfox - 2016-11-24 12:35:10 +0000
/character/us/barthilas/Fmac - 2016-12-06 15:03:03 +0000
/character/us/barthilas/Puffhealz - 2016-11-27 04:45:31 +0000
/character/us/barthilas/Rw - 2016-12-28 11:08:44 +0000
/character/eu/черный-шрам/Жаур - 2016-12-04 19:35:50 +0000
/character/eu/черный-шрам/Пульсфаэр - 2016-12-13 14:05:21 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Rabster - 2016-12-09 13:49:32 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Pheyd - 2016-12-24 02:50:18 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Sandranasic - 2016-12-10 13:49:20 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Nébu - 2016-12-20 19:25:16 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Magadansky - 2016-12-03 02:01:12 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Rait - 2016-11-17 01:41:19 +0000
/character/eu/thrall/Dschakkeline - 2016-12-08 23:42:11 +0000
/character/eu/thrall/Nijöx - 2016-11-16 07:42:07 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Nijöx - 2016-12-15 00:11:57 +0000
/character/eu/draenor/Azzél - 2016-10-20 22:16:54 +0000
/character/eu/draenor/Anjû - 2016-11-23 13:51:00 +0000
/character/eu/draenor/Innocentdog - 2016-12-16 14:38:04 +0000
/character/eu/draenor/Kíef - 2016-12-21 11:34:20 +0000
/character/eu/draenor/Andyylol - 2016-11-12 12:05:57 +0000
/character/eu/uldum/Fckingodbaax - 2016-10-08 19:27:39 +0000
/character/eu/uldum/Ráh - 2016-12-26 12:27:22 +0000
/character/eu/sanguino/Tds - 2016-11-28 23:58:50 +0000
/character/eu/sanguino/Fitokey - 2016-12-27 00:01:25 +0000
/character/eu/sanguino/Argantor - 2016-12-31 13:31:26 +0000
/character/eu/sanguino/Tarks - 2016-12-08 18:01:13 +0000
/character/eu/zul-jin/Ghntz - 2016-12-29 16:31:13 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Arecuridk - 2016-10-20 22:06:31 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Kiviuq - 2016-11-16 01:06:14 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Treylin - 2016-12-27 20:44:11 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Upwind - 2016-12-22 10:42:37 +0000
/character/eu/eredar/Ravnacz - 2016-11-09 21:48:19 +0000
/character/eu/пиратская-бухта/Барута - 2016-12-16 18:51:22 +0000
/character/eu/пиратская-бухта/Миноравр - 2016-12-08 16:44:02 +0000
/character/eu/пиратская-бухта/Оррех - 2016-12-16 01:08:57 +0000
/character/eu/пиратская-бухта/Забилаки - 2016-12-15 18:25:51 +0000
/character/eu/frostwhisper/Sírkkeli - 2016-11-12 14:54:30 +0000
/character/eu/frostwhisper/Slaippari - 2016-12-30 13:35:38 +0000
/character/eu/frostwhisper/Epätoivo - 2016-12-28 21:48:55 +0000
/character/us/proudmoore/Riotgrrl - 2016-12-13 07:23:18 +0000
/character/us/proudmoore/Woopitywoop - 2016-11-07 06:11:13 +0000
/character/eu/hyjal/Persönn - 2016-12-10 17:56:50 +0000
/character/eu/hyjal/Hadvi - 2016-12-04 00:28:45 +0000
/character/eu/hyjal/Slackeur - 2016-12-23 16:20:47 +0000
/character/eu/hyjal/Monkixïe - 2016-12-25 22:53:44 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Khaino - 2016-12-31 13:21:03 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Astral - 2016-12-06 17:11:15 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Edgey - 2016-11-06 18:51:31 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Lórentz - 2016-11-27 14:13:40 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Bbe - 2016-12-26 17:45:47 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Rinzal - 2016-10-19 19:56:32 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Arile - 2016-12-30 18:48:06 +0000
/character/eu/stormrage/Borek - 2016-12-28 15:13:26 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Thejuice - 2016-12-23 05:35:33 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Zant - 2016-12-21 19:35:41 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Killthos - 2016-12-28 21:43:58 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Sinetha - 2016-11-15 03:54:38 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Gonzo - 2016-12-22 05:08:27 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Roxxe - 2016-12-09 00:46:04 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Dangles - 2016-11-10 01:22:23 +0000
/character/us/arthas/Mannbèarpig - 2016-12-31 19:28:09 +0000
/character/eu/garona/Léandre - 2016-11-23 22:39:46 +0000
/character/eu/sargeras/Fantaikk - 2016-12-17 14:06:27 +0000
/character/eu/sargeras/Aranaeyá - 2016-12-11 23:19:42 +0000
/character/eu/garona/Zerator - 2016-12-24 17:14:55 +0000
/character/eu/ner-zhul/Flora - 2016-11-28 14:35:36 +0000
/character/eu/illidan/ßépalzø - 2016-12-21 17:21:29 +0000
/character/eu/illidan/Ozlapeb - 2016-12-21 17:09:34 +0000
/character/eu/illidan/Ciremykladin - 2016-12-11 22:16:12 +0000
/character/eu/illidan/Ciremyk - 2016-12-10 14:04:18 +0000
/character/eu/illidan/Nadpoléon - 2016-11-21 16:21:25 +0000
/character/eu/dalaran/Èowyne - 2016-12-21 23:10:01 +0000
/character/eu/dalaran/Tañky - 2016-10-12 21:10:09 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Kíssta - 2016-11-17 20:43:22 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Gdubetrayer - 2016-12-17 20:24:41 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Krayder - 2016-10-19 15:30:33 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Ohi - 2016-11-17 21:24:05 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Balza - 2016-11-26 22:12:57 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Crt - 2016-12-29 20:13:51 +0000
/character/eu/kazzak/Rohkun - 2016-12-28 12:00:26 +0000

So, is this normal state of things? Is hardcore scene lively as usual? Who is wrong? Do you have any questions that you want me to research?

PS. Want to get this data for yourself? Players: 0N6tn5ms on pastebin. Full guild list with player lists: N0V7LASj on pastebin.

[Zoldor]

ToV isn't that rewarding? I'll be more interested when the NH stats are out to make any claims.

[clevin]

Assuming you're talking mythic kills... I'd bet a lot of guilds decided not to kill Helya because she was such a pain in the ass for little gain. in terms of prepping for Nighthold, it might be better to do mythic EN, 2/3 mythic ToV and then repeat on alts vs spending that time to kill one more boss on your mains.

Now, if we see a similar decline in Nighthold? Different story.

[Deleted]

ToV isn't that rewarding? I'll be more interested when the NH stats are out to make any claims.

How does it matter for a top-100 guild?

Now, if we see a similar decline in Nighthold? Different story.

Nighthold is going to be tuned around having 54 traits. How do you get them without playing?

[Gamer8585]

ToV was also released around a busy holiday season. Its possible that even the raiders in hardcore guilds may have more limited schedules. My guild, while not hardcore, is fairly dedicated to raiding (Normal and Heroic, we just don't have the warm bodies to fill a Mythic yet), but several people haven't been available to raid at the normal raid time because of the holidays. When your main tank, 1/3rd of your healers, and several of your top DPS, can't get on you pretty much just call the night.

We worked on Helya a few weeks ago, but have had to postpone progression until our raiders can make it. So, I'm inclined to think that the lack of ToV participation is primarily due to RL obligations. Many also aren't really champing at the bit for her lukewarm loot table so its possible that guilds would rather break after Guarm to either: go farm Mythic EN, run some high level M+ dungeons, or just get some sleep.

Helya's effort/reward ratio is about the shittiest I've seen in WoW.

[ufta]

I'm nowhere near the top 100 but I just find ToV to be a big pile of "meh".
I've skipped more ToV raids than I've run.
When NH and t19 gets here we'll see what's up.

[Deleted]

Just as an example: We are a mythic raiding guild, around world rank 200. We did like two nights total on Helya for fun, but decided that it's simply not worth the time. Better get all of our alts ready for split raids. Helya has a bad timing imo and the nerfs (right before christmas) were even worse.

[Zoldor]

How does it matter for a top-100 guild?



Nighthold is going to be tuned around having 54 traits. How do you get them without playing?

It isn't a meaningful raid. 3 boss, matters to world firsters a little bit, but most folks are more concerned about the race for NH. Prepping for Nighthold your time is better spent doing other things, quick 2/3 and 7/7, then split for alts and Mythic +. The gear from Helya is underwhelming at best for the amount of effort required to down her. She'll go down as one of the harder boses. ToV was intentionally over tuned to carry the gap between EN and NH. Also, as others have stated Holiday season. Killing Helya and raiding is a mediocre way to acquire AP, Mythic+ farm is drastically more effective for gaining AP. You could crush 10 or 15 Maw of Souls/Dark Hearts in the time it takes to do all of Mythic ToV.

This is my take on it, it could be wrong there could be a decline, but honeslty ToV is a rather in the way after thought of a raid. And the rewards from it are less than stellar. Especially Helya's loots. I'll be more inclined to agree after the NH numbers come out. I do think it is on the decline and has been since Wrath, just because subs are all around. But not in a scary decline situation.

[Fayenoor]

Nighthold is going to be tuned around having 54 traits. How do you get them without playing?

If they tune this around 54 traits, then I don't foresee more than 50 full clears after like 2 months of Nighthold. Howmany people have 54 traits right now? Like 10-12?

[Deleted]

If they tune this around 54 traits, then I don't foresee more than 50 full clears after like 2 months of Nighthold. Howmany people have 54 traits right now? Like 10-12?

I think something like 65M ap were needed. Using wowprogress, there are about 1500 - 2000 with that much ap.

[Ahovv]

That is one piece to the puzzle. In any game, people will quit. However, often you'll find that (roughly) an equal number of players will step up and replace those who quit. Now, obviously if a large chunk of the most skilled players quit the game simultaneously, the replacement won't occur immediately. It takes time for people to transition from a "casual heroic raider who doesn't care much about maximizing performance" to "hardcore raider putting in extra effort to ensure they are playing as close to perfectly as possible."

So yeah, short-term information isn't that helpful.

[Thereaperszone]

How does it matter for a top-100 guild?



Nighthold is going to be tuned around having 54 traits. How do you get them without playing?

Doubt it will be tuned for 54 most don't have it.

[Deleted]

Doubt it will be tuned for 54 most don't have it.

Getting 54 traits is mandatory in Method and similar guilds. If it won't be tuned around 54 traits likes of Method are going to clear whole thing in a week. Is it acceptable result for 4 months of preparation? Don't think so.

[Deleted]

Doubt it will be tuned for 54 most don't have it.

only M guldan i could see maybe being tuned for 54.

- - - Updated - - -

Getting 54 traits is mandatory in Method and similar guilds. If it won't be tuned around 54 traits likes of Method are going to clear whole thing in a week. Is it acceptable result for 4 months of preparation? Don't think so.

the paragon traits arent a super huge deal unlike when first got 35.

[Deleted]

the paragon traits arent a super huge deal unlike when first got 35.

10% free dps that's being multiplied by all the setbonuses, legendaries etc isn't huge? Are you for real?

[Deleted]

10% free dps that's being multiplied by all the setbonuses, legendaries etc isn't huge? Are you for real?

the paragon traits which is 0,5% per rank is what i meant each rank isnt that strong is what i meant.
And Who cares if the early bosses get stomped by best guilds, Aslong they dont undertune the bosses hp it will still be a challenge and if Bosses are tuned for 54 and good legendarys even first boss would be bad for all other guilds

[Fayenoor]

the paragon traits arent a super huge deal unlike when first got 35.

For DPS, I think it is +15% extra damage at 54 traits. For bleeding edge guilds, that is pretty darn good and would make or break gear-check fights.

[Softbottom]

The answer is easy; Hardly anyone gives a shit about ToV.

[Deleted]

I know 2 guys of that list that you put. They rerolled and are playing on a different server so is a bit inaccurate.

[Grimlokh]

Getting 54 traits is mandatory in Method and similar guilds. If it won't be tuned around 54 traits likes of Method are going to clear whole thing in a week. Is it acceptable result for 4 months of preparation? Don't think so.

Soooo...Blizz tunes their game around 20 people out of 8 millions? 54 traits mandatory for NH? What the fuck are you smoking? Plastic? Just one player got the 54th trait...and that was last week...how is it that Blizz tuned out NH around that? Oh, nvm...just a troll who states opinions as fact. Nice name thou, fits you.