What would happen if North Korea waged war against South K?

[Forogil]

Please just . . . just stop. You guys lambasted me for pages about this shit, and when I finally conclusively demonstrate I was correct, you just go for other nit picky shit. How about a "thank you" or "yeah, you were right"?

Thank you, you were wrong again.

The reply by @I-Push-Button describes the likely scenario.

[cubby]

Thank you.

You're welcome. I assume you'll spend the rest of your life not knowing the definition of magnanimous. When someone teaches you something, just say thank you, and appreciate the new information. No need to launch a dick-storm.

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It wouldn't be a warzone. The "war" would last about as long as it takes the cruise missiles to traverse the distance between our ships and their emplacements/installations. We probably have every single thing military and government related that isn't underground pre-sighted... It would be a simple matter of giving the order.

No doubt - there is the issue of moving quickly politically. The military could do exactly what you're saying, of course, but giving the order and sorting it all out could delay response, etc. I'm sure you can see how politics could fuck up an easy call like that.

And the area wouldn't be highly irradiated. Nuclear fallout decays extremely fast. Within hours it will have decreased tenfold... And within days a hundredfold. Will it still be a risk, yes? Could it cause cancer and shit decades from the war, sure? Will it melt people's insides and kill them like legit radiation poisoning would? No, not even close... The only people that will happen to are those dosed right as the attack happens.

Do you have some information to back this up? I am open to the idea that nuclear detonation sites and the surrounding area are habitable at some time afterwards, but I haven't read anything saying that people could repopulate the area even after 10 years. And for such a relatively small area, and assuming six detonations, the main area of Seoul would be pretty fucked up, lol. Show me some data - I do enjoy learning new things. (not being sarcastic here, in case it comes across that way)

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I just argue your defintion of long time.

Fair enough - I would say the surround area of the multiple detonations (see below) would uninhabitable for at least 10 years. Show me some evidence otherwise - I'm open to new information.

NK does not have usable 30KT devices either. They made a thermonuclear test underground that they claim is 30KT, not an actual weapon. China itself believe it was at most 18 KT. But it is still not a weapon. Their real weapon dont exceed 10KT and like i said the damage done by the explosion and radiation is what is over stated often. Would hundred of thousand die, yes, the hundred of thousands in the radius of the air burst. If you shoot like 3-4 10 KT missiles. The after effect is what is very overplayed.

Kinda thought we were done with this - but ok. This is the Wiki link, don't read it, but read the sources listed next to the last test. All the sources say at least 20kt+ - so . . . show me something else that disagrees with that.

The after effects are not over played. Could you show me some evidence of your claims? There are three people here now claiming that the immediate area around a small nuclear detonation will be almost immediately habitable. Give me some links,

Whats dangerous is the particles that stay long after, but a 10 30KT+ device doesent have that much reach in that context. Chernobyl is more damaging long term and the area is still habitable. Hell Hiroshima still exist now. Im not claiming Seoul would not be damaged, of course itll be damaged. However its not gona vanish. Even a 60 KT bomb wouldnt come close to make the full city not a viable living area. People would develop more cancers, there will be more cases of infirmity, fertility problems, things like that. Its only a matter of a few years and even the zone that were directly hit would have reasonable radiation levels, reasonable as they dont get sick over night.

I never claimed it would vanish - because of course it wouldn't. I don't even think megaton yield devices would do that. However, my argument, from the beginning, is that it would devastate the area - making uninhabitable. The blast, the fallout (FALLOUT - j/k), the EMP and the lack of available resources to help those that survived would absolutely decimate the city.

If you disagree, show me some evidence that says otherwise. I like how our conversation has gone (past jibes aside, lol) so let's keep going. It's an interesting intellectual exercise.

[Annoying]

Do you have some information to back this up? I am open to the idea that nuclear detonation sites and the surrounding area are habitable at some time afterwards, but I haven't read anything saying that people could repopulate the area even after 10 years. And for such a relatively small area, and assuming six detonations, the main area of Seoul would be pretty fucked up, lol. Show me some data - I do enjoy learning new things. (not being sarcastic here, in case it comes across that way)

Well, Hiroshima was 15 kilotons. North Korea's largest nuclear test was between 6-14 kilotons, meaning we'd see either the same kind of fallout or smaller.

As for how long?
http://www.rerf.jp/general/qa_e/qa12.html

The induced radioactivity decayed very quickly with time. In fact, nearly 80% of the above-mentioned doses were released within a day, about 10% between days 2 and 5, and the remaining 10% from day 6 afterward.

So not terribly long.

[ranzino]

Nuke this, artillery that: Seoul is off the map in the first few hours. anything there in NK to compensate for the loss ?

[cubby]

Well, Hiroshima was 15 kilotons. North Korea's largest nuclear test was between 6-14 kilotons, meaning we'd see either the same kind of fallout or smaller.

No, it wasn't. How are you not reading the stuff that is linked? 20-30kt last test.

[Annoying]

No, it wasn't. How are you not reading the stuff that is linked? 20-30kt last test.

There is a single source claiming 20-30kt, and a huge amount of other sources putting it between 6-14kt.

The CNTBTO method puts it at 9kt. NORSAR put it at 10kt. SK's MND puts it between 6-9kt. USDOD puts it at "several kilotons". Russia had it at 7kt.

I'll stick with the consensus rather than that single outlier.

[cubby]

There is a single source claiming 20-30kt, and a huge amount of other sources putting it between 6-14kt.

The CNTBTO method puts it at 9kt. NORSAR put it at 10kt. SK's MND puts it between 6-9kt. USDOD puts it at "several kilotons". Russia had it at 7kt.

I'll stick with the consensus rather than that single outlier.

Can you show me the link for this info? The Wiki links have it fom 15kt to 30kt, average over 20kt with two sources saying 30kt.

[Holofernes]

im pretty sure north korea would overrun the south faster than france fell in ww 2.

[Gamer8585]

Here's the way I see it playing out:
North Korea resumes the war with missile bombardments striking Seoul and other major cities, its Navy starts firing on SK ships, and its Army starts pushing South. They meet a combined SK/American/UN force and are pushed back. The UN force pushes past the 38th parallel and starts taking land.
Meanwhile, China gets really super pissed and sends the PLA right into Pyongyang, overthrows the Kim dynasty, and appoints a successor. China then tells their new "friendly" NK leader to sue for peace, he dose and the status quo is re-established.

North Korea will do some major damage to South Korean population centers both though Ground to Ground missile bombardments and special ops from amphibious landings behind SK lines, however the total amount of power that can be projected by South Korea alone is enough to give them a leg up on any conflict. Combined with the Allied UN force stationed there (especially the American contingent) its ultimately going to be a steamroll. North Korea's Air Force, and Navy will be destroyed very quickly, and its Army only has numbers that will be chewed though by modern weapons.

While China could be a wild card that could potentially come to NK's aid their own interests will be threatened by any war, and if North Korea starts it then China will likely turn against them so amazingly fast. Unless the DPRK can successfully spin it that it was South Korea or the Americans that started the conflict then China will not be helping them, and China will see to it that heads roll (possibly literally) in the top echelons of the North Korean elite.

[P for Pancetta]

China and North Korea are NOT allies.

The current president of China Xi Jinping is in an internal power struggle with Jiang Zemin (a former president of china). Both of them are very powerful men with many allies in many important positions in the chinese government. Although Xi Jinping has been fighting "corruption" and seems to have the upperhand.

The North Korean person most friendly with China (and the west) was Jang Sung-taek, an influential person in the North Korean government. Who was married to the sister of their former leader Kim Jong-il. However he was stripped of al his power and executed shortly after Kim Jong-un took over because he was accused of opposing the North Korean revolution and was executed.

Knowing this it is pretty clear that the current people in charge of China's international affairs are not on friendly terms with North Korea. Although there are certain people in China with allegiance to Jiang Zemin who still have good relationships with officials of the North Korean government.

Secondly, there seem to be a lot of people under the impression that this would be a short war. This would be an absolutely devastating war with potentially millions of victims.

Thirdly Nuclear weapons are not as devastating as many people believe they are. Although they will certainly kill a huge amount of people and create untold amounts of damage were North Korea to bomb the south. It would however not knock South Korea out. On the other hand the population of north korea is pretty spread out and although nuking the capital would certainly knock out the North Korean government, their people would not stop fighting so easily, and the overall damage such an attack would do to the North Korean's military forces would be close to zero.

In reports conducted by various governments the conclusion seems to be pretty much the same around the board; We don't want a war, it's to expensive and would cost to many lives.

If you wan't to learn more about what the USA thinks about korea check out:
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Do...Korea_2015.PDF

[cubby]

There is a single source claiming 20-30kt, and a huge amount of other sources putting it between 6-14kt.

The CNTBTO method puts it at 9kt. NORSAR put it at 10kt. SK's MND puts it between 6-9kt. USDOD puts it at "several kilotons". Russia had it at 7kt.

I'll stick with the consensus rather than that single outlier.

Fun toy at the bottom - read on!

I guess I'll put it another way - regardless of the science and estimations (and I'm still seeing info saying that nuclear fallout and radiation persists at lethal levels for at least a year) I don't see a lot of people moving back into an area with 6+ nuclear craters.

Let's put aside the estimations of the tests - it's getting us nowhere, and I'm fine admitting they were smaller than 30kt.

Let's instead assume my original assumption happens, and 'ol Kim drops six 45 kt (you'll see why 45kt below) on the Seoul Capital Area. No one is going to want to live near a nuclear detonation. The city/metropolis would at least be in shambles, with hundreds of thousands (at least) bodies, no food/water/power, and uninhabitable areas abound. Most would flee (I would - would you?).

Fun toy: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Dial-a-detonation fun site to see what yield would do what to where.

[Deleted]

NATO would go into meltdown & do nothing.

[Annoying]

Fun toy at the bottom - read on!

I guess I'll put it another way - regardless of the science and estimations (and I'm still seeing info saying that nuclear fallout and radiation persists at lethal levels for at least a year) I don't see a lot of people moving back into an area with 6+ nuclear craters.

Let's put aside the estimations of the tests - it's getting us nowhere, and I'm fine admitting they were smaller than 30kt.

Let's instead assume my original assumption happens, and 'ol Kim drops six 45 kt (you'll see why 45kt below) on the Seoul Capital Area. No one is going to want to live near a nuclear detonation. The city/metropolis would at least be in shambles, with hundreds of thousands (at least) bodies, no food/water/power, and uninhabitable areas abound. Most would flee (I would - would you?).

Fun toy: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Dial-a-detonation fun site to see what yield would do what to where.

I love nukemap, such a great toy. I certainly wouldn't argue that no one would want to be there, but I don't think the problem is that it would be uninhabitable for long. The problem would be the last parenthesis. No one wants even a (basically completely safe) nuclear power plant in their backyard, so clearly they would be quite hesitant about moving into an area that has been nuked -- fallout or not. NIMBY =D

[tumppu]

They would lose, but the korean people would lose a whole lot more. China and Russia would probably not offer even token support, except of the political nature.

[ezgeze]

When my brother served over there in S. Korea he was told that N. Korea had Seoul targeted and zeroed in with massive artillery 24/7 and could in theory level it in under 3 minutes.

I don't think Kim is that stupid to level the highest populated center in Korea, however, lets say he did.

S. Korea has one of the most disciplined, advanced, and trained military forces in the world. It would be suicide.

The world would condemn N. Korea and would quickly form a coalition to eradicate the government. China, in its ever paranoid state of allowing a US presence on its boarders through a unified Korea that actually likes the US will most likely solo-invade N. Korea (and claim its helping but will refuse to join the coalition btw) and overthrow the government there to install a Pro-China, pro-North Korea status quo non-nuclear threatening puppet. In the end it would be a race to see who could run over N. Korea first.

[I Push Buttons]

Do you have some information to back this up? I am open to the idea that nuclear detonation sites and the surrounding area are habitable at some time afterwards, but I haven't read anything saying that people could repopulate the area even after 10 years. And for such a relatively small area, and assuming six detonations, the main area of Seoul would be pretty fucked up, lol. Show me some data - I do enjoy learning new things. (not being sarcastic here, in case it comes across that way)

https://emilms.fema.gov/IS3/FEMA_IS/is03/REM0504050.htm

So if the radiation exposure at detonation is X... After seven hours, its 1/10X, after two days its 1/100X, after two weeks its 1/1,000X, etc.

Obviously there can still be contamination depending on the terrain where the detonations occur, the weather, etc., but probably not much, especially if we are talking about high altitude bursts of small scale devices.

[Forogil]

I love nukemap, such a great toy. I certainly wouldn't argue that no one would want to be there, but I don't think the problem is that it would be uninhabitable for long. The problem would be the last parenthesis. No one wants even a (basically completely safe) nuclear power plant in their backyard, so clearly they would be quite hesitant about moving into an area that has been nuked -- fallout or not. NIMBY =D

You shouldn't overestimate that effects: one of the reasons for NIMBY is that people dislike change.

Thus people who actually have a nuclear power plant (or volcano) in their backyard quite often want to stay.

[Theinquisition]

NK would be stomped into kimchi. They may outnumber SK and US troops, but they are several decades behind in tech, starving, and would have no air cover.

Not before Seoul is reduced to rubble

[Kellhound]

Not before Seoul is reduced to rubble

It has been reduced to rubble before, and SK pretty much accepts it will happen again.

[Frolk]

N. korea would end up as a smoking crater in a weeks time.