Manned exploration of our solar system

[Osmeric]

Some bought one way tickets to the Americas a time ago as well. There is similarity in the two, space travel and colonizing outside of Europe after Columbus.

The analogy is crap. The new world was a place humans could live in with neolithic technology.

[PACOX]

The problem with throwing money into space exploration is the money. None of use will likely see the fruits of the work done but will lay the foundation for generations to come. People don't want to spend billions on what are baby steps if they aren't going to see some sort of return.

[Fencers]

Pretty unlikely in the "next 50 years". Most of us will be dead by then.

I don't think humanity will ever significantly live off Earth. We will die here.

[Skroe]

Been thinking about this subject for awhile , as I've spent most of the last two days dealing with a family issue and not had much computer time.

Obligatory @Skroe

I think it's a given that over the next 50 years, there will be numerous permanent moonbases established, mostly scientific in nature with maybe beginning to exploit the moon's mineral resources by the last quarter of the century (2075 or thereabouts). I expect US, Chinese, and Indian space programs to be quite robust, with maybe Japan hitching a ride with the US. What happens to the ESA is kind of tied to the future of the EU in many ways, so I'll make no predictions there.

Mars will likely see numerous manned expeditions almost totally scientific/exploratory in nature. I'd say several US missions, a few Chinese, and maybe an Indian mission or two. I wouldn't expect the first permanent science bases on Mars until the beginning of the 22nd century, the same way I don't expect either manned exploration of the asteroid belt or the outer planets until the 22nd century.

Wild cards I think are Venus and Mercury. I could see a manned flyby of Venus that inserts a spacecraft into orbit for a few weeks, drops numerous satellites into orbit, and takes lots of cloud-penetrating radar pictures of the surface. Landing is out of the question for humans I think until we have Hulkbuster armor. Venus is a hellhole on the surface, but it does at times come closer to the Earth than Mars.

I have no idea about missions to Mercury. I imagine there are significant technological hurdles to shielding a spacecraft that close to the sun.

Thoughts?

I'm in a rush and will go into more detail later, but here is what I think in brief. I've written up on this topic before here and I'll dig up the post. Also the ESA is independent of the EU.

--- BEFORE THE FIRST MARS LANDING ---

-US, ESA, Japan and Canada continue long term partnership.
- ISS deorbited in 2025.
- Europa lander in 2026
- Major Saturn probe launched by late 2020s, including Titan lander.
- Commercial Space Station begins being build by 2024. "Finished" by 2030. Smaller than ISS. NASA visits on commercial vehicles.
- US orbit around the moon in 2020s. Gateway Station is build over the 2020s as a staging ground for the 2030s/2040s Mars missions.
- JWST successor in 2032.
- Uranus orbiter launched in 2033.
- New Horizons follow up - a Pluto Orbiter - launched in late 2030s. Potential Neptune flyby.
- Commercial Single Stage to Orbit space vehicle in mid 2030s.
- US Mars orbit in 2036-ish. Potential Phobos (moon of Mars) docking mission profile.
-US Mars landing in 2041. ESA comes along

-Chinese Mir-sized space station by late 2020s.
-Chinese Moon landing in the mid 2030s.
-Chinese-American space partnership basically non-existent.
-Chinese outer solar system flyby missions in 2030s (basically the Chinese version Voyager / Pioneer)

-Russia does basically very little in space from here on out. Mostly launching Soyuzs in orbit to show the flag and limited Chinese partnership.

-Independent, but modest, Japanese spaceflight by 2040.
-India's space program continues to advance, slowly but surely.

- Outer Space Treaty of 1967 abandoned by 2035 (largely driven by its deleterious economic impact on commercial space development, but also changing political realities).
- Gradual realization of economic and territorial opportunities / potentialities in space lead to the start of orbital militarization. Modest at first, but inexorable in its direction as space commerce grows.
- US and China build sophistical orbital weapon platforms by 2040 / 2050 respectively. Nuclear weapons are placed in space.
- US strategic defense after 2050 is based on orbital weapon platforms. Persistent Sub-hunting undersea drone swarms in the 2030s and 2040s make the Ballistic Missile Submarine obsolete as a concept. Spread of ballistic missile technology leads to widespread missile defense adoptional. Orbital bombardment (+cyber weapons) replaces all prior forms of strategic defense. China follows suit. Other nuclear nations do not for cost reasons (each platform is $50 billion.. the US builds 6+).





--- AFTER THE FIRST MARS LANDING ---
- NASA & Friends continue to visit Mars every 3 years for the rest of the 2040s and 2050s.

- By late 2040s commercial manned space flight extends to the lunar region and Mars for unmanned cargo flights.
- Commercial lunar landing by 2040.

- Chinese First Mars Landing after 2050. But it only does it once or twice.
- First Chinese outer solar system orbiters by 2050s.

- Political, Economic and Demographic Change in Russia means the end of the Russian Space Program as we know it. Remnant that reflects whatever "Russia" is after 2040 joins the ESA.

- First Indian Lunar landing in the 2040s.

- Independent Iranian manned Spaceflight begins at somepoint, to low Earth Orbit.



--- AFTER THE FIRST CHINESE MARS LANDING ---

- NASA & Friends unmanned exploration of the outer solar system continues apace throught the latter half of the 21st century.

- NASA and the ESA Merge in 2080s. NASA "name brand" is kept in some capacity. We'll call it "NASA++" for now.

- Re-establishment of independent US Air Force Manned Space Program as NASA++ is formed.
- Expansion of orbital weapon systems.
- USAF single stage to orbit drone bombers with hybrid-engines.
- General global trend of the militarization of Earth orbit, and eventually lunar orbit, continues in conjunction with the expansion of economic opportunities in both regions. Above military statements reflects US contributions to a global phenomenon.

- Permanent NASA++ base on Mars expands. 6 people in the 2040s turns to 20 by 2060, turns to 300 by 2070. Many of them after 2070 are contractors. Base set to expand VERY rapidly into the early 22nd century, as commercial flight reaches Mars orbit. 1000 people living on Mars by 2099. Questions about Mars' political status begin to be asked.

- One way trips to Mars become an option in the late 2090s (or early 2100s). Colonization begins. American-led.

- No manned missions to Venus or Mercury. Many visits, especially from Asian countries trying to show scientific prowess (Mercury is actually difficult to get to. Venus is easy, quick and close).

- NASA++ mission to Ceres in the asteroid belt by 2060.
- NASA++ mission to orbit Callisto (a moon of Jupiter safer from radiation) by 2080.
- NASA++ purpose built interstellar probe launched by 2099.

- Large scale international economic exploitation of the Moon by 2099. Development of Commercial Lunar industry.
- Large commercial orbital facilities and lunar facilities
- Commercial ticket to orbit costs $15,000 (2017 dollars) by 2060. Commercial ticket to lunar orbit costs $200,000 by 2060.
- $5000 low earth orbit commercial spaceflight by 2099. Tourism to orbital hotels for 2 weeks in space is a popular thing. Consider it akin to a cruise ship today.

- India becomes NASA + ESA's principle space partner after 2060
- Indian Mars landing in 2060s.
- India builds orbital weapon platforms after 2050.


- Chinese Space program declines after 2060 due to severe economic, demographic and political changes in China. Becomes a Earth-Lunar space operation.
- Chinese Orbital Weapons platforms maintained and growing in sophistication despite broader space decline.

[Tennis]

OK professor. What about this topic makes you angry? What technologies can you see us not having in 50 years? Why is it a waste of time sending Humans instead of Robots? I am sure you have a lot more to say instead of just trying to tear people down. Don't tell me you also voted for Trump? That would embarrass me.

I am not angry. From the looks of this person's qualifications, I am more qualified to talk about exploration.

If costs get lower then maybe I would support some limited form of asteroid mining but clearly we have more pressing concerns. There are still billions of people struggling to have access to food or access to adequate shelter.

As for if I voted Trump, most people here know the answer to that.

[Deleted]

Waste of resources. We need to fix the issues that our beautiful planet faces not spend billions sending a couple privileged people for a grand tour.

As a alternative view, we need to get our eggs out of one basket as soon as possible.

[Kathandira]

Waste of resources. We need to fix the issues that our beautiful planet faces not spend billions sending a couple privileged people for a grand tour.

Privileged? Really?

What privileged does one have to be an astronaut?

[the game]

Privileged? Really?

What privileged does one have to be an astronaut?

Space suits are white.

[Kathandira]

Space suits are white.

Bwwahaha. Well there ya have it. Astronauts are racist. =)

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Its unlikely anything we send to the asteroid belt is ever manned for a very long time. This can all be automated. The effect on human body from lack of gravity just makes anything deep space with any frequence or long term unviable.

I'm with you here. I foresee any long term mining expeditions to be performed by automation.

[Kathandira]

There is no point in sending man missions to mercury or venus cause as the bear said this porridge is too HOT!

No our resources need to be sent to Mars.

Mars is the future of humanity and the sooner we stamp our mark the better!

This topic got me thinking about venus and if we EVER got the tech to do such a thing, if we can give it an artificial atmosphere.

For example, if we can encase Venus in a shield of sorts (yes this is far fetched, stay with me) whether it be a physical shield, or the sci-fi energy shield sort. Do you think we could ever repair the planet to be inhabitable again?

I know I started out with an idea that is already impossible, and asked a follow up impossible question. But coming back to reality, what would be venus's temperature if it had an atmosphere again? What is venus's gravity compared to earth? Could it have the appropriate levels of oxygen for us to breath?

Would it actually be possible to clean up venus?

[TwoNineMarine]

We need to spread out into space. Given our current consumption rates of damn near everything on our current planet we need to be able to get out there and mine what we can and eventually have settlements where you can grow food etc.

It'll be an exciting time and I'm sad that I most likely won't be around for it. I'm only 30 so I'm hoping I get to see some of it before I go.

[Chantique]

I don't understand why there is some people so avert to space exploration. If we want to survive as species we must take serious the threats that space can bring to this planet.

All it need its a 10 mile asteroid to come from nowhere to wipe us out. the Asteroid 2017 AG13 missed the earth by just 0.5 lunar distance and we didn't saw it comming until it was already too late to do anything.

Space exploration is not just about profits, but our survival as species too.

[ranzino]

Pretty unlikely in the "next 50 years". Most of us will be dead by then.

I don't think humanity will ever significantly live off Earth. We will die here.

"Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever."
Konstantin Eduardovich Tsiolkovsky

[Release]

"Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever."
Konstantin Eduardovich Tsiolkovsky

I think he means climate change or nuclear war etc will have wiped most of us out in 50 years or severely destabilized our civilization and the technology to do this with it. Which I myself would put at around 50/50. Higher if Trump remains as leader of the free world for 8 years.

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This topic got me thinking about venus and if we EVER got the tech to do such a thing, if we can give it an artificial atmosphere.

For example, if we can encase Venus in a shield of sorts (yes this is far fetched, stay with me) whether it be a physical shield, or the sci-fi energy shield sort. Do you think we could ever repair the planet to be inhabitable again?

I know I started out with an idea that is already impossible, and asked a follow up impossible question. But coming back to reality, what would be venus's temperature if it had an atmosphere again? What is venus's gravity compared to earth? Could it have the appropriate levels of oxygen for us to breath?

Would it actually be possible to clean up venus?

Not to dismiss your question but terraforming Mars is much more feasible or one of the Moons orbiting the gas giants. You would be talking about a shield that could reflect the sun's rays to cool the planet before you even started dealing with run away climate change enough to begin working with a temperature that would allow anything to grow. Plus the pressure on Venus is much greater than Earth meaning your shield would also need to solve that problem.

[Kathandira]

I think he means climate change or nuclear war etc will have wiped most of us out in 50 years or severely destabilized our civilization and the technology to do this with it. Which I myself would put at around 50/50. Higher if Trump remains as leader of the free world for 8 years.

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Not to dismiss your question but terraforming Mars is much more feasible or one of the Moons orbiting the gas giants. You would be talking about a shield that could reflect the sun's rays to cool the planet before you even started dealing with run away climate change enough to begin working with a temperature that would allow anything to grow. Plus the pressure on Venus is much greater than Earth meaning your shield would also need to solve that problem.

I think you are right on the Mars part. Which is exactly why eyes are on that target already. It just makes more sense as the hurdles to overcome are far easier than that of Venus.

[Piglord]

As a person that loves the idea of human space exploration, I'll be the first to admit it just isn't practical, barring some catastrophic event that requires us to colonize outside of earth. It's just so much cheaper and safer to send unmanned objects to explore.

[ranzino]

I think he means climate change or nuclear war etc will have wiped most of us out in 50 years or severely destabilized our civilization and the technology to do this with it. Which I myself would put at around 50/50. Higher if Trump remains as leader of the free world for 8 years.

....

About Konstantin T.: Along with the German Hermann Oberth and the American Robert H. Goddard, he is considered to be one of the founding fathers of rocketry and astronautics. Climate change and nukes were not an issue in his time.

[Deleted]

Waste of resources. We need to fix the issues that our beautiful planet faces not spend billions sending a couple privileged people for a grand tour.

This so much. Our current methods to do little space adventures cost far too much and they are in no way acceptable in current crises - most of them done by those who now want to explore space.

[Release]

About Konstantin T.: Along with the German Hermann Oberth and the American Robert H. Goddard, he is considered to be one of the founding fathers of rocketry and astronautics. Climate change and nukes were not an issue in his time.

Were the possibility of apocalypse remote I would generally agree with Skroe's timeline. Humanity is very good at accelerating technology when profit is to be had. If you look at agriculture in the late 1800's the speed of advancement was meteoric. I also agree with Chuck Palahniuk though, it will be private companies that make significant strides in space rather than government entities like NASA. Best believe we'll all be travelling to the Coca Cola Base on Microsoft Mountain.

[Youn]

It is likely the moon resources will be exploited as soon as we finish figuring out how to build a tether for a space elevator. At that point, transportation off the moon and onto earth becomes extremely simple. And the only thing that determines the cost becomes travel between the two tethers.