Mafia 78: WTF IS THE THEME? Game Thread.

[listo95]

Kryllian how did my fluff by pretending to be my character on D1 muddy your read of me?

[PalawinFC]

Kryllian how did my fluff by pretending to be my character on D1 muddy your read of me?

I wondered that as well. Quite a few people role play fluffed on day 1.

[Kryllian]

Listo the pure randomness and nonsense of your D1 biased me to putting you on scum side trying to hide by making me shim/skip your posts so I'm having a hard time separating from that bias when you do post things that are serious thoughts. Perhaps once the game is over or you flip it'll all make sense your role play as you called it.

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My alarm is going to go off in just over 4 hours so I need to turn off my phone and try to sleep. I'll resume when I can but it'll probably be at least 8 hrs from now.

[dupti]

I’ll hypothesise that at least 3 if not 4 of the remaining votes are scum. (Marack, Kel, Ret, Xanj, Kryl, or Palawin)

???

What the hell kind of logic is that? I mean first of all, from your point of view you can obviously exclude yourself, which means you believe it is possible 3-4 of the remaining votes to be scum. Hm well alright I guess, but then in the very same post you say stuff like:

At this point I strongly believe that between the grouping of Dupti, Ret, Palawin, and Danner there are 3 scum

Me and Danner didn't vote for Arialla so that is in no way consistent with your hypothesis I also don't understand why you'd ever hypothesise that 3 (or 4) of the remaining votes were scum anyway. There's no real logic behind that.

Both Danner and Dupti as town I think would have a hard time justifying calling for the cop to out themselves on D3.

No, I actually a very easy time justifying it.

I said that if the cop has checks still alive then he should probably reveal since we are (most likely) in lylo and also said that the doctor should not reveal, so he will at least get one other check in. What you're saying is basically that the cop shouldn't reveal because he is somehow supposed to make it all the way to the last of three (or whatever happens), which is simply not how it works. Cop should just reveal if he has information to help town, especially if we are in lylo with hardly any information and a lot of afk players. If the cop has no information, then he shouldn't reveal, which was what I said.
I think the only one who is going to have a hard time justifying anything, is you trying to justify your reads. Please note that this doesn't necessarily mean that you're scum at all. In fact I mislynched you a few games ago for the exact same reason

Furthermore Dupti tries to paint D1 as a policy lynch of Arialla with no deflection from the Danner or Monkz trains. The Monkz train makes sense given his flip but that doesn’t clear Danner from being a possible scum train.

Uh, that is exactly what I said.

Ret, Palawin, and Dupti then spend the next few posts doing a couple of things. First vetting and backing up each others opinions and all agreeing that they read each other as town leaning (either from direct opinion or by proxy of other people's posts)

Uh what. While I didn't call either of them town, I have no idea how you can believe I read Palawin as town?

Danner and Dupti have an interesting interaction about who is responsible for the Monkz lynch both trying to paint themselves as townies who made a mistake that got another townie lynched. Both feel like they’re overacting at this point with those posts.

Except that's not what I said. I said that everyone who voted is responsible.

Dupti then calls me out in #277 saying he can’t remember anything I’ve done given my posts. Yet, as I pointed out I was pushing non-voters D1 and Dupti and I even had a back and forth about it D2 as he continued to argue about the Arialla lynch.

See Kryllian, here is the thing. You've pushed on afk players, which is fine, but that's the thing about policy lynches. They do not contribute. Anyone can push a policy lynch and no one can really question it, because town does it a lot which means it is very easy for scum to simply hide behind the whole "lynch lurkers!" agenda. What that means is we don't get any information out of the lynches + all the kills we've had so far have been giving us very limited information as well, so I simply can't consider this contribution as it does not help solve the game, but I do agree that we need to get rid of the players who aren't playing. That is why I can't ever blame players for wanting to get rid of afk players but I certainly can't consider it to contribute to the game.

As for us having a back and forth, I hope you realise I had a back and forth with pretty much every single player in the game. That doesn't mean they have left an impression. Also it seems like I'm not the only one who thinks this is the case.

He then goes on to say that he remembers Ret’s posts given their limited number. I had to go back and re read his posts because I couldn’t remember anything off the top of my head.

What is your point? I think this says more about you than it says about me. It's fair enough if you don't personally believe his post have been contributing, but as you can see several players believe he has.

At this point I strongly believe that between the grouping of Dupti, Ret, Palawin, and Danner there are 3 scum.

With Palawin claiming to have an innocent check on Ret, this list seems very questionable. Do you believe the cop claim?

I’m leaning town reads from Xanj

Why?

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Kryllian how did my fluff by pretending to be my character on D1 muddy your read of me?

Why are you ignoring me? I asked you a question.
Scumreads please.

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I'm the cop. i have innocent on ret. No other info to assist.

As for this, I don't know exactly what to think.

If you truly are the cop I'm not about to question your checks, but I'm not sure I think Ret was the best check after d2.

I do however believe we have a cop so unless someone counterclaims you, I believe the claim.

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I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say this but Aureli was the cop and hadnt turned up or responded to pm. Crackle thought he might not show up so he decided to swap our roles when I joined, so that the game balance wasnt completely fucked.

Wait what, so basically you knew Aureli was a VT?

[listo95]

Okay this is based purely on vote records at end of day. My top 3 would probably be Xanjori, Marack, and someone between Large/Danner. I am skeptical of you dupti but I want to believe you are town.

[PalawinFC]

Wait what, so basically you knew Aureli was a VT?

Not at the time. Crackle just said a new player rolled the cop but hasn't turned up . He gave me that role. Crackle didn't name Aureli but I knew it was him because he was the new player.

[Xanjori]

It feels weird that we've only had two days and game approaching end game (or at least according to how everyone is acting today!)

Quick glance at vote records;

People late onto trains: Kryllian, List, Marack and Xanjori, Palawin, Kryllian.

Kryllian gets some suspicion points for being late onto two trains.

People on alternative trains: Danner, Largehorn x2 Dupti.

So Largehorn gets suspicion points for being on neither train so far.

Obvious explanation in case people wonder why I'd use these methods to look at what's happening: Scum are in general less likely to vote early, they attempt to save votes incase they need to nudge one lynch ahead of the other, on top of that they often try spread out when they vote so they don't appear as a bloc. On the non-train voters it comes down again to scum not all wanting to appear on one train as well trying to earn town points by not voting on someone they know will flip town (or not mafia at least, because I guess always a chance of 3rd party baddy.)

Shout out to @kel because earlier I defended you because I like having you alive late game, don't let me down here man.

Before his death Monkz felt Dupti/Danner/Ret were reaching to get him lynched, as he flipped VT do we have any more thoughts on that? Danners opening post from today is one I dislike heavily. It has that air of "I'm trying really hard to look like the sorrowful townie."
@dupti Does this post mean you find Marack suspicious? Because if so that would put you and Ret in the finding him suspicious camp I believe, now if we were to look at what Monkz felt, but throw in the innocent on Ret, surely that'd mean that there is a very high likelyhood of either you or Danner being a mafia member?

I am alive due to being the lynchbait. Easy answer. I mean, I am the one responsible for getting Monkz lynched, I've not played my usual game due to disappearing for four days.

Another post from Danner I dislike heavily, it's an attempt at handwaving suspicion away in my opinion.

@palawin don't keep trying to meta-game, just play the game based on your reads. People get drawn into meta gaming so much they miss the obvious. (I've seen town lose because they simply meta-game and vote based on that while ignoring all the evidence in the thread, the thread and it's posts are the only place you need to look to find the evidence needed to win this game.)

Looking at today I think my vote should currently be considered most likely to be placed on Marack. I think he is attempting to deflect attention onto the AFK kel (don't do this to me kel) but hasn't really provided any defence. I think Reticence having an innocent upon him is useful in this situation too. I don't want to vote right now because I'm unsure of how many votes he is at and don't want to rush anything, I'll post this and re-read the vote count and then vote soon.

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Just going to do a FoS: Marack in case people miss where I want to go.

[Danner]

I am not sure I trust Palawin's claim, but I see no immediate need to verify that by lynching Reticence. I'll put any suspicion I have on Reticence on hold until this game is significantly smaller.

I am fairly convinced Dupti and Reticence are not on the same team. As am I that Dupti and Kryllian are not. As am I that Dupti and Largehorn are not. In fact, that pretty much puts Dupti out of three of the four main constellations I am envisioning here. (Dupti-Marack being the final one). So that takes out both of my main hypothesises of who are scum here. Is that a word?

I want to vote Largehorn today. So I'll just do that.

vote: Largehorn

But I may also end up voting Kryllian. Not impressed by him either this game.

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@Xanjori: I so loathe falling behind on the game. Catching up is hard, reads are best made in the moment when you have the mindset of the game in the back of your mind. There is no way I would want to do that to myself intentionally.

And you are right, I was reaching. I even said as much earlier. Monkz' last post was IMO a major reason to not vote him. But it was either chancing on that Monkz being scum - which I couldn't rule out, or a very very very complicated and uphill endgame... which we are currently encountering.

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@Kryllian: I also have to modify that statement of mine regarding you, #295 is certainly an effort. Not really sure what to think about it though.
You are clearly trying to put me in the scum bin. I don't see how you can want to vote any of the other three candidates you listed.

[Largehorn]

Not at the time. Crackle just said a new player rolled the cop but hasn't turned up . He gave me that role. Crackle didn't name Aureli but I knew it was him because he was the new player.

I completely believed Palawin's claim until this post... Now I'm much more hesistant. That seems like the kind of information a Mod wouldn't willing give out because it's not only shifting a role (which is fine) but giving you another check by telling you who not to. That seems too good to be true.

I am not sure I trust Palawin's claim, but I see no immediate need to verify that by lynching Reticence. I'll put any suspicion I have on Reticence on hold until this game is significantly smaller.

I am fairly convinced Dupti and Reticence are not on the same team. As am I that Dupti and Kryllian are not. As am I that Dupti and Largehorn are not. In fact, that pretty much puts Dupti out of three of the four main constellations I am envisioning here. (Dupti-Marack being the final one). So that takes out both of my main hypothesises of who are scum here. Is that a word?

I want to vote Largehorn today. So I'll just do that.

vote: Largehorn

But I may also end up voting Kryllian. Not impressed by him either this game.

Danner, I want to make sure I understand your vote here. Is this vote because of operating under the belief that 1 of the 4 (Dupti, Ret, Yourself, and me) have to be scum? Or is this based on something else completely?

Also, I need to give you guys a heads up. My company's national sales meeting starts this week and so I'm going to be in quite a few meetings. I will post as I can in between all the trainings, meetings, and meals. Shouldn't be terrible since I'll have my computer for almost all of them but my posting is going to become a good bit more sporadic then it normally is during the week.

[Danner]

I completely believed Palawin's claim until this post... Now I'm much more hesistant. That seems like the kind of information a Mod wouldn't willing give out because it's not only shifting a role (which is fine) but giving you another check by telling you who not to. That seems too good to be true.



Danner, I want to make sure I understand your vote here. Is this vote because of operating under the belief that 1 of the 4 (Dupti, Ret, Yourself, and me) have to be scum? Or is this based on something else completely?

No, it's pretty much exactly that. Except my name swapped with Marack's.

[Largehorn]

No, it's pretty much exactly that. Except my name swapped with Marack's.

Interesting. What has cleared Marack to you?

[Danner]

Interesting. What has cleared Marack to you?

Nothing. this is just me picking one of two horses.

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I guess I also should note that you have tried to get me lynched, while he hasn't. That doesn't mean much. But it's more than nothing.

[Xanjori]

With every post Danner makes I feel more and more inclined to vote for him.

I mean you seem to be ignoring the criticisms of you here, and then trying to say that because someone voted you you'd rather vote for that person. I mean that's some sketchy shit right there.

[Reticence]

If we are going to go with this scenario, that would put the AFK scum as most likely to be Ret, Kel, or Xanj. All have less posts than the mod but Kel is the only one who hasn’t posted recently.

Hold the fuck up. I'm AFK?

Ret, Palawin, and Dupti then spend the next few posts doing a couple of things. First vetting and backing up each others opinions and all agreeing that they read each other as town leaning (either from direct opinion or by proxy of other people's posts)

This sounds like you're spinning things to hint at a conspiracy. My read on Dupti, if you would reread my post, is tentative and slight. His logic is palatable and we tend to view things similarly when we're both town, but that's the extent of any trust I have for him. I also never once said I trusted Palawin, and frankly I was worried he was buddying up to me until he claimed.

At this point I strongly believe that between the grouping of Dupti, Ret, Palawin, and Danner there are 3 scum.

I think the basis for this is flawed due to misinterpretation (or misrepresentation) of what actually occurred, but I'm curious: given Palawin's claim, what do you think now?

Not at the time. Crackle just said a new player rolled the cop but hasn't turned up . He gave me that role. Crackle didn't name Aureli but I knew it was him because he was the new player.

I don't intend to pursue this until I have a proper reason to (like a counterclaim), but you have to admit this is weird. Even not naming the new player, that's still a fair bit of information to give a player, yeah?

[Kryllian]

@Danner

Yes, I am painting you into a scum role because I feel like that's how you're playing the game at this point. Simple as that. At the same time I've identified a number of other people that I think are your teammates. I'm not saying I'm voting you, but you are on the top end of my list of suspects.

But let me address what I see is the big elephant in the room, and no I'm not calling Palawin fat...But his claim has left me uneasy.

If I take his claim as true, then that means that Crackle as a mod put a new player in what is often the penultimate TPR. I would think that they wouldn't do that to someone who's never played as they are not only learning as they go but it has a lot of pressure to play correctly. If it randomed that way I'd think that he's swap out for a VT or Scum role so the new person could play on a team to get coached. Even if he didn't do that the fact that he told Palawin he did so after the game started seems odd. Granted Palawin doesn't know if the person is a town or scum as they could have been added to either role but being told they're not showing up narrows down his list of who to look at by one automatically (why investigate a no-show early in the game?)

I'm also struggling with his investigation of Ret. He spent D2 pretty much on marack so why not investigate to get some support for/against your suspicions. I didn't notice anything signifcant in Ret's D2 posts that would be cause to go that direction and certainly nothing of their interactions.

If I believe the role claim I still am not sure I can believe the investigation result of innocent. The smaller the scum team the more likely they have some sort of utility such as godfather, RB, or their own invest. If his claim of being the replaced cop is true then we know crackle added to the game a VT. That means with the starting game being 14 not 15 it's even less likely they started with 5 scum.

On the other hand if he is trying to draw out the cop by claiming, that still doesn't give us anything about ret's role. He could be trying to clear a scum buddy or set ret up for a future lynch by naming him.

Ultimately I don't see how his claiming with only one innocent (without knowing if there is an inv immune role) has helped town at this point. But without a counterclaim I have to give him a pass on today.

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Well there's not much time left in the day so I may as well put my vote out there. I frankly am not a big fan of any of the trains so far. Maracks is based on Palawins read of ret. Too third party. Kel is based on Marack going policy lynch but given he isn't here and I think we are at a critical stage that would help scum no matter which way he flips. Large's vote is Danner who is on my short list of I don't think I can trust at this point. (as opposed to those I'm just wary of.

So Vote Danner

That should put us at...

Vote Count (6 to lynch and just under 7 hours to go)

Marack - Palawin (290)
Kel - Marack (291)
Largehorn - Danner (308)
Danner - Kryllian (315/316?)

No Vote : Dupti, Kel, Largehorn, Listo, Reticence, Xanjori

[dupti]

Vote Marack

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Marack is at 3, not 1. Ret voted on him as well.

[Kryllian]

You are right Dupti I missed that vote the first one too.

Vote Count (6 to lynch and just under 6 hours to go)

Marack - Ret (274), Palawin (290), Dupti (316)
Kel - Marack (291)
Largehorn - Danner (308)
Danner - Kryllian (315)

No Vote : Kel, Largehorn, Listo, Xanjori

[PalawinFC]

I don't intend to pursue this until I have a proper reason to (like a counterclaim), but you have to admit this is weird. Even not naming the new player, that's still a fair bit of information to give a player, yeah?

Yeah okay. I made that bit up. I didn't get any info about Aureli. I have no idea why there wasn't a cop before I was added. I couldn't figure it out and crackle wouldn't tell me.
I thought my claim would be useless because of it so I lied about the Aureli thing.

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Unvote
Dupti do you think Marack is scum? Or just voting to get a lynch off on someone. Because of its lylo we need to be sure.

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Ugh whatever. I'm scum. I lied about the cop thing.

I'm sick of the assholes in my team. Ive had a bad week and fucked up the claim. I really don't feel like keeping it up.

Vote palawin


Good luck town. I hope you win.

[Kryllian]

Unvote
Vote: Palawin

A confession, that makes today easier and definitely gives me some things to think about...For example he is indicating he's on a team with multiple people which lends to the one scum team theory. I will say I'm sorry to see you go out like this Palawin. I hope your week gets better!

[dupti]

Hm my vote stays. If Palawin is telling the truth and Marack is town he is gamethrowing and I'd like to believe he wouldn't do that.