Has Legion hit the 'lull period' already?

[Dizzeeyooo]

I'm constantly running into people either passing by or doing the same things I am. The game sure FEELS a lot more alive now than it did before, no idea if that's at all relevant to statistics.

yup thank god for legion cross realm

[Seramore]

Slipping? Activity isn't as strong as it was as when the expansion first launched I would imagine but it's still quite lively with Nighthold launched. Activity will probably spike again with 7.2, just as it always does with a major patch.

[HumbleDuck]

I guess kinda true for me, as I just recently asked my guild to give me my spot back in the raid team.
Oh, wait, that means even though solo content is almost over, the MMO part is just going to get started for me. So, no, not for me.

[Sencha]

Agree with you OP. Looks like a lot of people stopped during the holidays and didn't feel like coming back after the holidays period.

[Detritivores]

Bad troll is bad. "OMG GAIS, THIS XPAC THATS RELEASED STAGGERING AMOUNT OF CONTENT IN VIRTUALLY NO TIME IS SO STAGNANT! I CANT BELIEVE IT!!! LIEK IF YOU AGREE!!!11!!!11!!!1!"

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I have done every dungeon 10-25 times(Kara only once), i farmed the crap out of the EN and ToV, done every quest, exalted every rep, maxed my main spec weapon. Now there's nothing to do for the next 4-6 months but Nighthold, which isn't even a fun raid to begin with. Over the last 2 weeks i've been logging in strictly for raiding, and that won't change anytime soon.

YOu could always consider a job. Or a hobby other than WoW.

Keep it civil

[schwarzkopf]

Now go look at Diablo 2, which received basically zilch for support since 2001 and flourished for years and years.

Well your definitions of 'zilch' and 'flourished are a little on the alternative facts side.

But if you want a great example - World of Warcraft, has been going for 13 years now and is still the number 1 in the genre despite numerous attempts to unseat it.

[Hotmail]

Holidays are well over, however activity has not picked up. In fact, it feels like activity has slipped even further. Players logging in less often and for shorter periods. All of this despite the recent release of a patch and a major raid.

Do you feel that Legion has hit the lull period already? And at only 5 months from launch. With no content in sight and still months away from another patch, this could be problematic for this expansion and its success. It feels like we're getting less content slower, and players have picked up on it and are not sticking around. We need another injection of content and fast before numbers are cirtically low. We can't afford another 3+ month PTR for 7.2.

Hi styil, it was nice to play a few matches of 2v2 skirmishes with you earlier today. That's some nice gear you had... I bet a 900 iLvl set took a lot of playtime to farm.

[rda]

Not correct. There has been two superimposed effects on the game over the time since launch.

1. The normal release, growth, shrink cycle of any product, with the peak of this cycle being around LK. Note that this graph is representative of concept, in fact most peaks occur VERY early in the product cycle and life lasts long after the peak.

2. Overlaid on that overall pattern, for every expansion has been large peaks at or around each expansion with similar numbers leaving within months after. Smaller peaks revisiting at major patches. For Legion, that means another peak for 7.2.

This flow is entirely normal behaviour, and no more means wow is dying than it means Charlize Theron is dying, in that technically she and all of us are - and short of any unforeseen accents on The Grand Tour she has many years to go.

The superposition of effects (more than two) has been such that the activity levels / sub levels only started dropping off after the last patch, in the long periods of no content. The bolded is not true.

Here are activity levels after WotLK. Go find "similar numbers leaving" after launch.



Huge drops of activity almost immediately after launch only started with WoD and continued in Legion. Before WoD there was either no drop at all or very slight declines.

Theories are nice, but take a look at the numbers sometimes, too.

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Slipping? Activity isn't as strong as it was as when the expansion first launched I would imagine but it's still quite lively with Nighthold launched. Activity will probably spike again with 7.2, just as it always does with a major patch.

It's about a third of what it was at launch, and it's going to halve in a couple of weeks after Nighthold spike is over.

[Deleted]

Holidays are well over, however activity has not picked up. In fact, it feels like activity has slipped even further. Players logging in less often and for shorter periods. All of this despite the recent release of a patch and a major raid.

Do you feel that Legion has hit the lull period already? And at only 5 months from launch. With no content in sight and still months away from another patch, this could be problematic for this expansion and its success. It feels like we're getting less content slower, and players have picked up on it and are not sticking around. We need another injection of content and fast before numbers are cirtically low. We can't afford another 3+ month PTR for 7.2.

hey look another of those "styil" thread, same question, same "wanna to bash wow but got no proof" neeeeeeext

[Feel The Power]

I wish it was dying down on my server that is basically completely Horde dominated, it still seems no matter what time of day it is there is 10-20 Horde at every WQ and camping almost every flight master. As an Alliance player I've been quite looking forward to a lull period to hit already.

[Deleted]

The superposition of effects (more than two) has been such that the activity levels / sub levels only started dropping off after the last patch, in the long periods of no content. The bolded is not true.

Here are activity levels after WotLK. Go find "similar numbers leaving" after launch.



Huge drops of activity almost immediately after launch only started with WoD and continued in Legion. Before WoD there was either no drop at all or very slight declines.

Theories are nice, but take a look at the numbers sometimes, too.

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It's about a third of what it was at launch, and it's going to halve in a couple of weeks after Nighthold spike is over.

this graph is bullshit because you need to be registred to give data, stop posting this trash ffs


there are no data for claiming that there is a growth or not.


also

Theories are nice, but take a look at the numbers sometimes, too.

ROTFL sure look numbers when are a small pool that can take water to your windmill #wishfulthinking

[rda]

this graph is bullshit because you need to be registred to give data, stop posting this trash ffs

Take a class in statistics.

[Deleted]

this graph is bullshit because you need to be registred to give data, stop posting this trash ffs

It's the trend that is interesting (consistent for a year), you understand graphs right?

[schwarzkopf]

The superposition of effects (more than two) has been such that the activity levels / sub levels only started dropping off after the last patch, in the long periods of no content. The bolded is not true.

The base levels started dropping during LK, but that's the nature of the peak. The part you highlighted are the key facts behind the ebb and flow.

Just straight maths... I can give you accurate graphs showing the effects - until Blizz stopped releasing numbers of course.

As for warcraftrealms data - that is irrelevant data as it measures characters, not players, has a flawed and biased data collection system and isn't consistent in time at any given point.

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It's the trend that is interesting (consistent for a year), you understand graphs right?

Graphs don't help if the underlying collection system is biased and flawed in addition to it measuring the wrong metric.

[Deleted]

Take a class in statistics.

better if you take that first instead of vomit this mongoloid propaganda in every thread

It's the trend that is interesting (consistent for a year), you understand graphs right?

more than you


but probably you are too stupid to understand that those graph are based on flawled data

[Doffen]

Even after they upped the spawnrate on the squirrels in the Aw, Nuts World Quest its still way too few of them to use less than 10 minutes to finish it. Too many people damn it!

[rda]

The base levels started dropping during LK, but that's the nature of the peak. The part you highlighted are the key facts behind the ebb and flow.

Just straight maths... I can give you accurate graphs showing the effects - until Blizz stopped releasing numbers of course.

As for warcraftrealms data - that is irrelevant data as it measures characters, not players, has a flawed and biased data collection system and isn't consistent in time at any given point.

Got it, "these graphs can't be trusted".

Stop talking about "maths", you don't understand maths. WR activity graphs are perfectly fine for the events of this scale. That's why their qualitative results are getting confirmed at every turn - by data reports on MMO-C / wowprogress / arena trackers, etc - because they are pretty close to the truth.

And it seems that when you were talking about big losses of people after every expansion you were basing that just on your theories of how things should be. You decided that this is normal, so you said that this is normal, and while you have nothing except your hinch, you are going to object to the numbers that show no big declines for pre-WoD on the basis of them being "unreliable" (wrongly, of course).

[schwarzkopf]

Got it, "these graphs can't be trusted".

Correct... I've been involved in statistics and maths analysis longer than most WoW players have been alive.

Now - if you focus on the maths, and not on my extremely poor drawing skills:



This is accurate data measuring the correct metric (i.e. blizzard subscriber numbers releases).

Shows the basics of the core decrease in subs with the net variations at expansions and patches.

Now - it is way harder to find these peaks on the upswing toward LK due to the fact that the game had a baseline upward trajectory.

[Deleted]

Correct... I've been involved in statistics and maths analysis longer than most WoW players have been alive.

Now - if you focus on the maths, and not on my extremely poor drawing skills:



This is accurate data measuring the correct metric (i.e. blizzard subscriber numbers releases).

Shows the basics of the core decrease in subs with the net variations at expansions and patches.

Now - it is way harder to find these peaks on the upswing toward LK due to the fact that the game had a baseline upward trajectory.

this is a graph with correct data.

[Eats Compost]

WoW doesn't really have the lasting value that Blizzard wants it to have. After you chew through the main story & novelty, what's left? Repetitive raid farming & world quests. Once the game inevitably boils down to that point, it's hard to find a reason to keep playing unless WoW is your singular gaming interest.

It's not helped by the fact that most quest & progression design awards players just for showing up, relying instead on time gates to spread it out. That means it gets to this point entirely by design.