Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Tunedbeats]

Did something change in regards as to how KP is counted?
A couple days ago my character was showing ~4200KP, now it's showing 3550ish, is this related to a change in the emissary/weekly chest counts?

Yes, i was adding up all Keystone Initiate / Challenger / Conqueror / Master achievements, but this was inflating the numbers (Initiate has them all). Normal / heroic / mythic zero were ignored before but are added now.

Also, is there an issue with the "progress bar" for next legendary?

For instance, I am at 3548 KP, considering that Legendary #4 is listed @ 3100KP, and #5 is @ 4800KP, that means 1700KP to go from 4 to 5, of which I would've done 448 of.

448 / 1700 = 26.35% of the way towards the next one.

But the progress bar shows me @ 74%.

Am I missing something about how the progress bar should work?

The progress bar currently shows your overall progression from 0 to the next breakpoint. I did not expect people would care if it was overall or specific from one breakpoint to the next, so i did not really bother. However you are not the first to report this, so i am considering changing this.

[Tsupa]

Yes, i was adding up all Keystone Initiate / Challenger / Conqueror / Master achievements, but this was inflating the numbers (Initiate has them all). Normal / heroic / mythic zero were ignored before but are added now.



The progress bar currently shows your overall progression from 0 to the next breakpoint. I did not expect people would care if it was overall or specific from one breakpoint to the next, so i did not really bother. However you are not the first to report this, so i am considering changing this.

What I'd like to see, and what I'm tracking in my own spreadsheet, is the KP earned since my last legendary drop. I'm taking the numbers from your website to represent that I need 1100 total KP to go from my 3rd to my 4th. I'm assuming that BLP resets when a player receives a legendary, similar to the way that BLP works with other things in the game such as trinket procs. I assume that because if BLP was cumulative and didn't reset, I'd be working on my 5th or 6th legendary by now rather than my 4. But I am one of the lucky ones that needs to max out BLP every time before I get my next worst legendary, so I am #feelycrafting like it resets.

Currently 84 M+ and 113 raid bosses since my last legendary. Based on my calculations I need another 90 M+ to hit the "goal".

[Tunedbeats]

But does BLP reset after receiving a legendary? That would mean if you got your first very late, you would be behind the entire expansion. That would be pretty bad Bad Luck Protection (pun intended)

Anyway, i can't track when you got your legendary. That would mean scraping battle.net for all characters on all servers.

[Eyliria]

I think there are a few things here that we have to keep under consideration, as per Ion's post on Thanksgiving regarding legendaries (when they also announced the softcap of 4 had been removed)

We know there are a few knobs they can turn at any time

*Baseline drop chance
*Rate of BLP increase

Ion specifically mentioned that they were keeping the sum of those things on the lower end for now (at least at the time of that post), because if they'd made legendaries drop too often, it would've trivialized the system early on, and went on to say that on 7.1 the base chance for legendaries had been bumped up slightly.

The way you are keeping track of all this now, have you accounted for the possibility/need to re-run the calculations to figure out each KP breakpoint as the xpak moves forward?

[Eyliria]

They haven't specified this, and I'd be curious as to what this analysis suggests. Does getting your first legendary later mean that you're also likely to get your second later, and so on?

I don't think it would be feasible for him to figure that out, because he'd need to pull the full armory info for each character, and there's a limited number of API calls you can do within a timeframe (i think a month?).

[Tsupa]

But here's why the system is stupid: it actively rewards you for doing easy content. People who try to do difficult content will get worse rewards than people who do easy stuff.

Here's my current situation: I'm 896 ilvl equipped and have successfully completed several +15s. I'm at artifact level 46. I have crap legendaries.

This week, if I run plus 15s all week, I won't really get many upgrades from the chests, which drop 885 base ilvl. I'll probably get on average 1 chest every 45 minutes, and I'll get a level 900 at the end of the week. That won't do much for my gear, my AP, or my legendaries.

Say instead I run 1 +15, then spend the rest of the week 3 chesting +6s every 30 minutes. I'm opening 4-5 times as many chests per hour meaning probably 3-4x as many legendaries, and probably getting 1.5x the artifact power. And I'm still getting the weekly 900 piece.

Now say I also do LFR and world quests which are tuned for people 50-90 ilvls below my gear. I'll get even more artifact power and more shots at legendaries than doing the +6s.

End of the day, the major problem with a system like this is always the same - it creates situations where you're better off spamming easy, stupid content than doing things that are appropriate for your character's progression. That's why you have world first guilds running LFR. It's nuts.

Do we know for sure that 3 chesting gives more KP than 1 chesting? I remember a post from the forums awhile back that was saying something about only getting legendary drops from the chest that contains AP. I don't know if that was ever confirmed.

I don't think we know for sure that all M+ give the same amount of KP.

I would assume that there's breakpoints in KP just like there are for AP. Something like

M+ 2-3 = 2 KP
M+ 4-6 = 3 KP
M+ 7-9 = 4 KP
M+ 10+ = 5 KP

[Deleted]

I think there are a few things here that we have to keep under consideration, as per Ion's post on Thanksgiving regarding legendaries (when they also announced the softcap of 4 had been removed)

We know there are a few knobs they can turn at any time

*Baseline drop chance
*Rate of BLP increase

Ion specifically mentioned that they were keeping the sum of those things on the lower end for now (at least at the time of that post), because if they'd made legendaries drop too often, it would've trivialized the system early on, and went on to say that on 7.1 the base chance for legendaries had been bumped up slightly.

The way you are keeping track of all this now, have you accounted for the possibility/need to re-run the calculations to figure out each KP breakpoint as the xpak moves forward?

Bump. I'd love an answer to this.

[impending doom]

I've updated the site with Impending Doom's new numbers today.

It baffles me to no end how people fail at reading and interpreting the outcome. I am seriously considering taking down the site and just add a direct link to the spreadsheet with the graph on it instead.

Looking good with the update. Yeah I've seen it too that some people take these numbers too seriously or read them wrong. That's why I've several times tried to add some notes about the accuracy of the numbers in my posts and how to read them, but some people still jump to (wrong) conclusions. Btw. here's just one rumor that caused blizzard to make one hotfix recently:

February 7 Hotfixes:

Legion Legendary items can no longer be destroyed.
- Developers’ notes: There was a rumor that deleting a Legendary item would increase your chances of receiving a different one. It’s completely false.

I would've liked to also hear from them something about the suggested diminishing returns in their drop rate algorithm, but so far I haven't heard them say anything about it, despite people posting about it often. Which kind of leads me to think that they just don't want to admit it.

Does changing the value of M+ on the site also change the expected KP per Legendary on the OP? I would think it would since he was factoring KP based on M+ counting as 2-5 rather than a flat 4.

My earlier spreadsheet was counting M+ differently(hence the estimation of 2-5), latest Feb 6 spreadsheet uses the value of M+ completed in time and I just decided to use 4 KP. The site counts some things little differently too and it's made by a different person, but the results look quite similar now.

But does BLP reset after receiving a legendary? That would mean if you got your first very late, you would be behind the entire expansion. That would be pretty bad Bad Luck Protection (pun intended)

Anyway, i can't track when you got your legendary. That would mean scraping battle.net for all characters on all servers.

If you look at the "drop rate for 10 KP" graph in the middle of the OP, it looks like the BLP doesn't even start increasing until after 200-300 KP since last legendary, at least for 2nd and 3rd legendary (for others the data is less accurate). Now in theory it could be possible that some part of the previous BLP could get added to the next one, but this sounds too complicated to be true.

Anyway I might do some kind of calculator for the next legendary's drop chance in the near future if I have time.

The way you are keeping track of all this now, have you accounted for the possibility/need to re-run the calculations to figure out each KP breakpoint as the xpak moves forward?

Yeah I mentioned somewhere also that blizzard changes the drop rates once in while, so obviously it has some affect to these statistics too, and for now the stats give kind of average of all these slightly different drop rates. If I could start tracking fresh characters it could give more accurate results, but it needs some work to update my tracking method, plus it would need some time to actually gather this new data, but I will see what I can do.

One other thing to consider is, that as the expansion gets older, there comes more raid bosses and other content, and gear upgrades make it faster to clear the content so people get more chances to get legendary drops than before.

Do we know for sure that 3 chesting gives more KP than 1 chesting? I remember a post from the forums awhile back that was saying something about only getting legendary drops from the chest that contains AP. I don't know if that was ever confirmed.

I don't think we know for sure that all M+ give the same amount of KP.

Yeah this is one of those things we can't be sure of, and generally the armory doesn't give very detailed info about mythic+ completetions, but some of my earlier stats show that there isn't big difference between different M+ levels, also with higher levels you're less likely to 3 chest them.

[Faildevil]

The change from yesterday seems not accuracte. All my chars have around 100-200 M+, and they have dropped significantly, some around 800 points.
Before the change, the predictions were extremly accurate, now the system says I shouk have gotten one legendary whith about 170m+, about 20 complete raid runs in normal, hc and m (aggregated) and the same with lfr.
And that is just so much more inacurate then 2 days ago...

[Tunedbeats]

The amount of killpoints should be more accurate. I've adjusted breakpoints as well, and they might be too conservative. You should be comparing your KP to the graph in the OP anyway

I was thinking of adding that graph with a "you are here" arrow, but im not sure how that will work just yet

[Faildevil]

With one of my twinks I have completed

80 +2 x4
69 +5 x4
11 +10 x4
------------
640

40 LFR bosses x2
64 normal bosses x3
34 hc bosses x4
8 m bosses x6
-------------------------
456

3 weekly caches x 15
27 days since 110 and every emissary quest possible x4
------------------------------------------------------------------
153

That allone is 1.096 points, but the calculator says 1013.

But I have also done a few normal dungeons, HCs, a few normal mythics, a few times karazhan.

According to the updated calculator I should have only received one legendary. But you receive the first two legendarys much faster than this.

Before the update, you calculator sayed, that I was in the 96% range for a new legendary, and "poof" the next lfr boss dropped one.
Of course this is anecdotal, but still...

[Niwes]

get it, that this tool is working with mathematicsl probabilities. it gives tendences. not accurate exact results. the more crazy luck or crazy bad luck you have, the more this tool fails. its sooo obvious and easy. cheesus.

[impending doom]

It should be underlined that the KP thresholds on the site show only average amount of legendaries at that amount of total KP.

For example if you have 1013 KP your average is 1.8 legendaries, but it also means that even if the numbers were 100% accurate, you'd have only:

53% chance to have exactly 2 legendaries
34% chance to have less
13% chance to have more

I wouldn't expect much higer numbers for someone with 27 days played.

[Cazz17]

Where do you get these "KP" estimates?

[Epicon]

I will go ahead and assume (yes I know the saying) that Blizzard put in the Legendary Slot Machine because of crying about the grind in the past two expansions. I thought the grinds were fair in both MoP and WoD. Maybe there was some mild RNG but you controlled if you got one based on the work you put in. So the best way to make it fair for those who don't want to put the work in is put luck on top of luck.
That way a person who logs 2 hours a week can get lucky and get their orange flavored gear - even though the gear won't be used for content most of the time that requires someone to have it. Whereas a player who plays 40 hours a week and grinds mythics, dungeons and WQ nonstop may never get the one they need and they tackle content they need it for. So RNG can screw over hard working players and people who don't really play the game much can be rewarded big time.

If that isn't one of the big reasons people hate RNG? I don't know what is. It is a total lack of control on the players part and it sucks.

[Deleted]

It doesn't really matter how they do it unless the rewards scale up ridiculously fast - it'll always be better to do easier content fast than harder content slow if you have a system that just rewards you for how many things you accomplish instead of how difficult those things are. It's going to work this way because the difficulty curve steepens at different points depending on how accomplished you are.

Take two realistic groups:

Group 1 is a mythic raid guild. Heroic is easy for them. So let's say they kill heroic bosses 5X as fast as they clear mythic bosses. Then normal is really easy, but they can only do it 1.5 times as fast as heroic because both difficulties are trivial for them.

Group 2 is a heroic raid guild. It takes them 5X as long to do a heroic boss as it does to do a normal boss, because normal is easy for them and heroic is hard.

For group 1 to prefer mythic bosses over normal when farming for legendaries, a mythic boss would need to provide 7.5X the legendary chance of a normal boss, and 5X what a heroic boss drops.

For group 2 to prefer a heroic boss over a normal boss, a heroic boss would need to have 5X the drop chance of a normal boss.

So the only way that all groups prefer to do the hardest content possible is if a heroic boss has 5X the drop chance of a normal boss, and a mythic boss has 5X the drop chance of a heroic boss. I think we can confidently say that's not how the system works - mythic raiders aren't getting 25X the legendaries of normals.

So that's why it's inevitable that a system like this will always reward you more for doing easier content fast than harder content.

To be fair, doing mythic+ 10+ is better nowadays than doing anything lower than that. 3 chests are pretty easy to do. But yeah, it's kinda like diablo, where if you are not cruising through the content, you are doing it wrong (from a farmer point of view).

[DevilsAdvocate]

It's funny, because I've been reading comments like this for 10+ years over a wide variety of games and even myself at one point in time sounded a bit like this. So I'd say hey, you're spending way too much time playing this game.

It's not designed to suck your life force one way or another, it's designed to give you things to do, options. Just because you decide to max it all out and grind everything, you can't blame them. That's your fault man. That's like going out into real life and trying to get every single job there is.

I played literally about 10 hours a week. I'm sorry you have poor reading skills but 2 Mythic+ runs a week on 7 toons is about 10 hours MAX. And I ran 7 toons because running one toon with the god-awful artifact power design, it made more sense to spread out casual playing time on alts rather than focus on one toon in some endless stupid grind. Most people with a raiding toon are force to play 30 or 40 hours a week because of the need to keep up with artifact power and legendary farming and their advantage in gear literally disappeared within 2 weeks of nighthold. And I had 16 Legendaries for the time it took one raider to get on average 4.

The math isn't difficult. In fact it's absolutely straightforward with the way artifact research works and what we now know about legendaries.

Maybe think things through before making unfounded assumptions about people. That's over with now anyways. I was waiting for a sign that Blizzard would let up on the awful idiotic grind of this game. They are doubling down on the grind in 7.2. I hope their subscriber numbers choke and die.

[Deleted]

The amount of killpoints should be more accurate. I've adjusted breakpoints as well, and they might be too conservative. You should be comparing your KP to the graph in the OP anyway

I was thinking of adding that graph with a "you are here" arrow, but im not sure how that will work just yet

are you the guy that made rsuurd.github.io?
First of all good job, it's really useful.
I came here to give some feedbacks. There were some recent changes (probably based on adding other information like mythic, heroic and normal dungeons) and the KP requirement is currently much higher than before.
While I used the site how it was before on different characters and it was very reliable for me and for my friends, after these changes it's a bit out. it says that I'm half way for my second legendary, while I should receive my third soon. Same for my friend it says he is missing 20% for his first legendary, but today he got his second.

Some information, we are not doing any normal heroic or mythic dungeons, just mythic+. Also our characters are pretty new, we didn't open many weekly chests (we both removed shared achievements from our settings)

I'm not a retard that doesn't understand about probabilities. I'm graduated in computer science and I know how it works.
cheers

[Deleted]

Don't look too much at the statistics. Because when they removed the so called soft cap and allowed the legendary luck streak to keep going beyond the 4th legendary, the legendaries after the 4th legendary will drop much sooner than the statistics mention right now.

[Deleted]

If you actually read the "how this site works" section of that site, you will see it assumes you have done every emissary cache and got a weekly m+ chest every week since your first character hit level 100. You clearly haven't, so it isn't going to be reliable for you. If your Hunter hit 100 later than your first character, it will be even less accruate.

And as I pointed out even IF you do all the things you said the site is quite useless cause I have 3 legendaries and the site claims I am working on the 3rd while the right thing would be the 4th....

It baffles me to no end how people fail at reading and interpreting the outcome. I am seriously considering taking down the site

which would be the only usefull thing.
what you atm is the follwing.
Some dude A yells "I can heal cancer" - You go around and tell everyone dude A can heal cancer (which he obviously can not as he is just a shoe seller and never studied medicine) and want everyone to believe you. And when someone calls you out on your lie you go home crying how cruel and unfair the world is.