Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

[Independent voter]

The EU will step up, no worries.

The biggest thing that would happen right now following a complete American withdrawal from the world is China would claim the South China Sea and block several trade routes used by other countries in Asia and the Pacific.

Russia would expand back to it's Soviet borders and beyond.

It's not a big deal to me.






https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...mericana-s-end

Last year, the global security establishment was mildly worried about a growing U.S. disengagement overseas. This year, the worry has given way to a realization that the "liberal world order" -- another name for Pax Americana -- may be finished, and that new security arrangements are needed.

That's the conclusion that can be drawn from this year's edition of the Munich Security Report, an agenda-setting document put out annually by the organizers of the Munich Security Conference, the world's most prestigious geopolitical gathering. The conference will open on February 17, and dignitaries such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence are expected to attend. Perhaps for the first time since the Soviet Union's demise, the participants will try to map out strategy in a world in which they cannot see more than one or two moves ahead.

In 2016, the Munich Security report noted almost in passing that the absence of the U.S. from discussions about the eastern Ukraine conflict would have been unthinkable before, and that the U.S. didn't appear to be particularly interested in resolving the Syria crisis on its terms, either. In 2017, all bets are off on what the U.S. will ultimately do: Donald Trump and members of his team have made so many conflicting statements on foreign policy (and some of them are quoted in the report, side by side) that nothing is clear except that they intend to keep their cards close to the chest as they "put America first." The report says:

The consequences for the international order could be tremendous: if the U.S. does retreat, vacuums will be filled by other actors. Key institutions will be weakened, spoilers will be emboldened. And some U.S. allies may see no alternative than to start hedging by seeking out new partners. Others will try to convince the new administration that the U.S.-led alliances continue to be a good deal for Washington -- and that there is inherent value in long-term commitments. After all, successful deals are based on trust, which requires some predictability and is often strongest between countries sharing common values -- not between opportunistic leaders. A unilateralist Trump administration may find that it has a different hand than it currently thinks. And once cards are on the table, you cannot pretend you never played them.
U.S. ineffectiveness as a pillar of security, however, doesn't just stem from Trump's unpredictability. There is no way for it to assert itself in some of the most important global crises. The U.S. doesn't just feel compelled to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, as it has obviously done in Ukraine and Syria -- it also appears to have reached the limit of its influence in the case of North Korea.

"If the U.S. adds sanctions (including ones that hit Chinese banks), presses China to increase its coercive measures against North Korea, or even opts for military steps, a major U.S.-China crisis could be right around the corner," the report points out. In other words, economic sanctions, the weapon that's easiest for the U.S. to wield, can lead to military escalation for which the U.S. has no stomach. The "strategic community," as the Munich Conference organizers describe the attendees, is apparently beginning to see U.S. might as something of an untenable bluff. It's clearly there, but it can't really be used.

In 2017, the U.S. is no longer the whale on whose back the world rests but a source of uncertainty and tension. Pre-Trump conventional wisdom reserved this role for a different part of the West -- the European Union. While in the U.S. and the U.K., commentators often still persist in this thinking, the Munich report -- written in Germany, after all -- discusses the EU as a potential new superpower. In a security context, that's largely wishful thinking at this point, but the thrust of the report's message is that the growing threats to European security -- particularly Russian expansionism and Islamic terrorism -- are pushing Europe toward more unity, an important trend.

"When, if not now, should Brussels' clout in the world ever be on top of the menu?" the report asks.

Signs of a greater European awareness that reliance on the U.S. for defense is no longer feasible can be detected in growing defense spending -- though the U.S. still outspends the entire EU four to one.

More Self-Reliance
European countries' defense spending, U.S. $ billion

Source: IHS Jane's Defense Budgets
About a third of Germans and French would like to see their countries spend more on the military. Poland and other eastern European countries are reliably in favor of stepping up defense expenditure.

Money alone, however, won't be enough to move Europe closer to military self-sufficiency. It needs to move toward more military integration, which means streamlining procurement. European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.; 20 types of fighter planes compared with just six; and 13 kinds of air-to-air missiles compared with three. The mess is hard to fix because rearming is expensive, and European politicians can't allow each country's defense industry to wither.

Military cooperation outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization framework is also untested and difficult. Without a dominant player such as the U.S., it may always be a contentious business, especially given European nations' long, and not entirely forgotten, history of military confrontation.

For these reasons, Europe's path toward superpower status seems long and thorny today. But the very fact that the organizers of the Munich conference consider it worthy of discussion shows that it's not a pipe dream, either. Europe may have no choice if U.S. dominance in the world continues to erode.

[Acidbaron]

The idea that a destabilized europe is something to be ignored for the US, shows how egocentric and badly educated some americans are in reality.

Wonder if history books are used there beyond optional toilet paper.

[Queen of Hamsters]

I wonder what happened that made Americans so egocentric and badly educated on world history... A destabilized world wouldn't serve 'Murica, on the contrary, seeing as how they are part of said world.

[Misuteri]

I wonder what happened that made Americans so egocentric and badly educated on world history... A destabilized world wouldn't serve 'Murica, on the contrary, seeing as how they are part of said world.

Because our progressives, teacher's unions, the NEA and Department of Education care far more about sensitivity, tolerance, self-esteem, pensions, collective bargaining, tenure, inclusion and identity politics than education.

[Acidbaron]

Because our progressives, teacher's unions, the NEA and Department of Education care far more about sensitivity, tolerance, self-esteem, pensions, collective bargaining, tenure, inclusion and identity politics than education.

I blame no real target towards education about important events outside of the US and constant infighting like this type of post displays between political ideologies rather than a single ideology being the reason, what causes the education to be divided over every state and even county individually and having no proper federal education standards what other nations in the west do hold.

[Mizix]

Because our progressives, teacher's unions, the NEA and Department of Education care far more about sensitivity, tolerance, self-esteem, pensions, collective bargaining, tenure, inclusion and identity politics than education.

And maybe also because people are constantly shitting on everything that's not STEM, to then pretend they know or understand anything about history or political sciences or sociology - to name a few. Just putting the thought out there: perhaps the disciplines that many deem unimportant because they seem easy to understand or silly and useless are actually harder and more useful than they seem and critics could learn something instead of assuming they already know it all.

[Revik]

The idea that a destabilized europe is something to be ignored for the US, shows how egocentric and badly educated some americans are in reality.

Wonder if history books are used there beyond optional toilet paper.

Just another reason the US Education system needs to be burnt down.

[Deleted]

An isolationist America, and 2 power blocs in Europe vying for supremacy, now where have I heard that before.......

[Deleted]

European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.

But we europeans need those different weapon systems.

German tanks have a extra sausage unit for support.
French tanks have baguette bread toasters.
Belgian tanks have a pommes frites stock.
Austrian tanks have a sound unit playing Mozart.
Italian tanks have, and you might wonder, a pizza supply.

Imagine you would create one single tank for every european army. It would be more some kind of a tracked kitchen on wheels having all those specialities combined.

[PickleballAce]

Europeans are panicking because their bluff has finally been called. But really, we all should be afraid of US shrinking its sphere of influence. History shows that when power is centralized in Europe, they can't handle it without instigating World Wars and dragging everyone else into their shitfight.

[LilSaihah]

Imagine you would create one single tank for every european army. It would be more some kind of a tracked kitchen on wheels having all those specialities combined.

Why tracked when you could go airborne? A flying kitchen which paradrops meals!

[Deleted]

Why tracked when you could go airborne? A flying kitchen which paradrops meals!

Ah no thats too easy.

[Hashtronaut]

This is silly if anything the reduced influence on the rest of the world is something Obama began to put in place, due to his passivity.

All you dems that hate Trump for his egocentricity should see how ridiculous it is to think the god-king would give up the chance to flex America's agenda on the world stage.
His whole "America first" ideology can (and most likely will) coincide with increasing world America influence. *oh and I seriously doubt EU wants to "takeover" or "handle" things

[Elegiac]

The Pax Americana hasn't been a thing since 2001. The mood of the public has been too fearful and insecure to classify it as such.

[Crispin]

Not too worried as long as Le Pen is kept out of office, that bitch makes Trump seem rather rational. But I doubt she'll be able to sell her vision well enough to the French people "look at Brexit and Trump, don't you want that aswell mes amis?"

[Independent voter]

The Pax Americana hasn't been a thing since 2001. The mood of the public has been too fearful and insecure to classify it as such.

1945. 10characters

[Elegiac]

Not too worried as long as Le Pen is kept out of office, that bitch makes Trump seem rather rational. But I doubt she'll be able to sell her vision well enough to the French people "look at Brexit and Trump, don't you want that aswell mes amis?"

The issue is that left wing parties have become watered down since the 80s and the right wing parties can't keep their crazies under control anymore.

Hollande is doing his best but he doesn't have that personal gravity that makes for a leader people can rally behind.

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1945. 10characters

Pax Americana started in 1990 and ended in 2001, as far as I am concerned.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I take it you don't live within the board of the former Soviet Union or in a nation that depends on Pacific trade.

I mean it is easy to caviler around and pretend things are going to be ok. I mean millions if not billions people will have to change their lives. But as long as your not one of them.. hey man.. maybe you will get an extra percent or two. Maybe you will get to win the internet game of EU vs NA. All worthy reasons to wish for the things you are fine with.

Who is starting to sound like an American now...

[Deleted]

I can only assume that this post is ment to show us that Lead is more widespread in American drinking water. Then we tought.

Sorry to tell you but the "Ebul invading Russinz horde" horse has been beaten so often by you Americans. That nothing remains. Facts and logic do not support your theory.

[Damajin]

Europeans are panicking because their bluff has finally been called. But really, we all should be afraid of US shrinking its sphere of influence. History shows that when power is centralized in Europe, they can't handle it without instigating World Wars and dragging everyone else into their shitfight.

That of course implies that the US would come to the rescue again.