Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Deleted]

And as I pointed out even IF you do all the things you said the site is quite useless cause I have 3 legendaries and the site claims I am working on the 3rd while the right thing would be the 4th....


which would be the only usefull thing.
what you atm is the follwing.
Some dude A yells "I can heal cancer" - You go around and tell everyone dude A can heal cancer (which he obviously can not as he is just a shoe seller and never studied medicine) and want everyone to believe you. And when someone calls you out on your lie you go home crying how cruel and unfair the world is.

This world isn't populated enough to be able to make a coordinated facepalm wave worth the stupidity in this post.

[Anbokr]

Don't look too much at the statistics. Because when they removed the so called soft cap and allowed the legendary luck streak to keep going beyond the 4th legendary, the legendaries after the 4th legendary will drop much sooner than the statistics mention right now.

Yeah, this is what it feels like to me as well. I obviously don't have the data, but all of my buddies that just got their 4th leg shortly after the soft cap was removed are now on their 6th or 7th leg.I took a 1 month break and I don't run every lockout so I just hit 4 . We'll see how long it takes to get that 5th.

According to the updated calculator though, I should be at 3. Pre-update it said I should be at 4, surprised the recent data pushed back the average rather than pushed up. From my own search and searching my buddies, pre-update was very accurate for anyone at 4-5 and below; post-update it is giving a lower estimate for nearly everyone I know.

[Tunedbeats]

Yo guys, I added the posibility to override the emissary cache and weekly chest count.
@Epilol: I based the numbers on the red dots of this graph:

http://i.imgur.com/4kWtZjO.gif

I do agree the numbers might be a bit high - i could reduce them a bit assuming everyone is a bit more lucky
@Fummockelchen: I don't know anyone that can cure cancer but i think i might've gotten it from reading your post. Thanks.

[impending doom]

While I used the site how it was before on different characters and it was very reliable for me and for my friends, after these changes it's a bit out. it says that I'm half way for my second legendary, while I should receive my third soon. Same for my friend it says he is missing 20% for his first legendary, but today he got his second.

I do agree the numbers might be a bit high - i could reduce them a bit assuming everyone is a bit more lucky

The numbers that were used before were based on old stats that were not good for this kind of comparison, they didn't account for bad luck protection properly, especially for 4+ legendaries. It might have seemed more "reliable" for people with 1-3 legendaries, but that's mostly coincidence. These new numbers are more in line with my latest statistics, but there are couple things that might make them misleading:

- These numbers represent the statistical average number of legendaries, so if you're at 1.9 the site tells "you should have 1", even though 70% might already have 2+. Maybe would be better to count people between 1.5 - 2.5 into "should have 2", although this isn't exactly accurate either.
- Even if we'd get the numbers right, the exact amount would be wrong for about 50% of people because of RNG.
- These numbers are based on combined stats between Oct 6 - Jan 25, and Blizzard has increased the drop rates at least couple times during that time, therefore for newer characters the drop rates should be little better than these averages.

I think in any case using just averages makes some people always think that the numbers are "inaccurate", might be better to tell at which point they have "50% chance to have X legendaries" or similar.

[Tsupa]

Based on this thread, I decided to keep track of my stats from the time I got my 3rd legendary to the time I got my 4th.

Here's what I did during that time.

Total = 106 M+
Total = 116 Raid Bosses (LFR to Mythic)
Total = 16 Emissary Caches
Total = 2 World Bosses
Total = 2 M+ End of Week Chests
Total = 21 Regular Mythic Dungeon Clears
Total = 1 Kara Clear w/Nightbane
Total = 847 Kill Points (counting only M+, Raid Bosses, and Emissary Caches)

Completed / M+ Level
4 2
2 3
8 4
15 5
16 6
13 7
9 8
18 9
2 10
4 11
4 12
2 13
4 14
3 15
2 16

Raid Bosses

EN RF 14
EN N 21
EN H 20
EN M 2

TOV RF 6
TOV N 6
TOV H 6
TOV M 0

NH RF 9
NH N 14
NH H 18
NH M 0

Unfortunately I got another garbage legendary, but it was interesting to track it.

[Kethmil]

Yo guys, I added the posibility to override the emissary cache and weekly chest count.
@Epilol: I based the numbers on the red dots of this graph:

http://i.imgur.com/4kWtZjO.gif

I do agree the numbers might be a bit high - i could reduce them a bit assuming everyone is a bit more lucky
@Fummockelchen: I don't know anyone that can cure cancer but i think i might've gotten it from reading your post. Thanks.

Could you "preload" the form boxes for chests with your calculations? Or add a button to load them with the data. I know that i missed 1 weekly chest and 15 daily emisaries. Would be great not having to go to a calendar and count how many i made.

You could add the number grayed out in the background, with the same style of the "Emisary Caches (Optional)" text.

Tx!

[impending doom]

Based on this thread, I decided to keep track of my stats from the time I got my 3rd legendary to the time I got my 4th.

Here's what I did during that time.

Total = 106 M+
Total = 116 Raid Bosses (LFR to Mythic)
Total = 16 Emissary Caches
Total = 2 World Bosses
Total = 2 M+ End of Week Chests
Total = 21 Regular Mythic Dungeon Clears
Total = 1 Kara Clear w/Nightbane
Total = 847 Kill Points (counting only M+, Raid Bosses, and Emissary Caches)

Nice, sounds quite close to average when adding those few things you didn't count in, since the difference between avg 3 and 4 is 1100 KP in the latest stats.

And the following graph from december tracking 100's of people going from 3rd to 4th, although it was counting KP slightly differently and the drop rates may have changed since then, I'd say you were close to 50% chance in the graph: http://i.imgur.com/KGgU767.gif

[Tsupa]

Nice, sounds quite close to average when adding those few things you didn't count in, since the difference between avg 3 and 4 is 1100 KP in the latest stats.

And the following graph from december tracking 100's of people going from 3rd to 4th, although it was counting KP slightly differently and the drop rates may have changed since then, I'd say you were close to 50% chance in the graph:

Yah, I was tracking it as needing another 63 M+ before I would hit the breakpoint. I'm still well behind the "average" breakpoint for 4 legendaries since I hit my 4th at about 500 KP past the "3100" line. Going to track 4 to 5 as well and see how that looks.

If it really takes 1700 more, it's going to be a couple of months. But if it doesn't "reset" BLP, then maybe I only need 1200 more. We shall see. I'm also going to focus more on High level M+ since I have my weapon maxed out. Running mainly Arcway, CoS, and Vault at 14+ because there are drops in those I could use.

[interesting note : mmo-champion won't let me quote you fully because there's a link in the quote and I don't have enough posts]

[Dieselol]

I don't think there is a real system behind it, I got my first 7 fairly quick sometime a couple of days apart - I'm still doing pretty much the same amount of content but haven't had a drop since early last year. My Killpoints are also quite low but it just doesn't take a bunch of stuff into consideration.

[antelope591]

Just got my 7th legendary at 3400 KP....damn blizzard loves me.

[impending doom]

If it really takes 1700 more, it's going to be a couple of months. But if it doesn't "reset" BLP, then maybe I only need 1200 more. We shall see.

I'm pretty sure the BLP resets to same amount regarless of your total KP. That's why I think the total KP can't be used to estimate the chance for the next drop. For that we would need to track the KP since last drop just like you did. Either way you can stil get the next one tomorrow if really lucky.

I do agree the numbers might be a bit high - i could reduce them a bit assuming everyone is a bit more lucky

Adding to my last reply, a simple way to make the numbers seem more accurate for most people, is to keep the current numbers but say "You should have received 2-3 legendaries so far." for anyone who's between average 2-3, and so on. Because for someone at average 2.5 they have like 50% chance to have 3+, and 50% chance to have less.

[goriander]

Just got my 7th legendary at 3400 KP....damn blizzard loves me.

I hope you are kidding.

[antelope591]

I hope you are kidding.

nope....everyone in my guild hates me lol

[judgementofantonidas]

got my fourth within 500 points of where the spreadsheet said I should. so it seems to be close. of course nothing based on rng and an escalating protection scheme could be 100% accurate but this system seems to work.

[Azlo]

Tunedbeats: Does the KP calculator include Mythic +0 and Heroic dungeons?

I remember somewhere that impending doom had a value for those bosses as well, but not sure if it's implemented. I know your site says that it does, but wanted to confirm.

[Tunedbeats]

Tunedbeats: Does the KP calculator include Mythic +0 and Heroic dungeons?

I remember somewhere that impending doom had a value for those bosses as well, but not sure if it's implemented. I know your site says that it does, but wanted to confirm.

It does - it uses the statistics tab for that: it figures out the amount of normal, heroic, mythic0 and mythic+ dungeons you've done and adds it all together: ((normalDungeons + heroicDungeons) * 2) + (mythicZeroDungeons * 3) + (mythicPlusDungeons * 4)

See also the source

The only thing it does not account for, which impending doom does count is Arena and RBG/BG. But i don't pvp, so it's fine
But to be serious, the /pvp endpoint is unusable for that i think, so i'm not sure where to pull that data from. I should add it to the advanced form, so you can manually specify those numbers, now that i'm thinking about it.

[impending doom]

I used the PVP statistics to count BG/arena wins, but since it counts also pvp before Legion, I had to compare the new statistics to the values I saved on Oct 6. So I don't think it's possible to count pvp without knowing what the values were in the past, and also my values are missing pvp from september. But when looking at the stats, most players don't do very much pvp.

[Accendor]

I hope you are kidding.

I am at my fourth with 7000+ Kill Points.
My GF on the other hand is on her sixth with 1800.

The world is cruel.

[Deleted]

and does it actually consider any difference between mythic+ levels? Like the KP I get from a mythic +2 is the same as the ones I get from a mythic +15? (I'm not even sure if any difference as been proven atm)

[Tunedbeats]

and does it actually consider any difference between mythic+ levels? Like the KP I get from a mythic +2 is the same as the ones I get from a mythic +15? (I'm not even sure if any difference as been proven atm)

It can, to a limited degree (based on the keystone achievements +2 / +5 / + 10 / +15), but Impending Doom's numbers and statistics are based on a single value for all M+es, so the calculator is as well.