Ghostcrawler on unsubbing

[Deleted]

I want you guys to consider very carefully what seems to be going on here. When a game dev says something, they're automatically assumed to be 100% truthful. But when a player says something, they're automatically assumed to be lying.

Think very carefully about the implications of that. You don't know either of these types of people personally, so what grounds do you have to make those assumptions?

The dev has (had) access to every possible statistic they have. The player has access to this forum and their own anecdotal evidence.
The players are not lying. They just simply can't know. So the players can only speculate - and in environment like MMOC forums, that speculation is echoed and spinned endlessly into whatever narrative people personally want to convey.

The devs are not 100% truthful either, but they base their opinions on the data they've seen.

Objectively the devs always know more about the inner workings of their company and game than the players in the forums. Doesn't mean they always take the right decisions though, but no one can dispute the fact that the devs have access to more and more nuanced information sources than any of us.

[rda]

Not sure what's so interesting about this particular piece from GC - it's a pretty meh one, if you ask me.

The only thing I will comment on is this:

Developers do care if you stop playing their game and they want to know why. However, for games like WoW and LoL, the answers are almost always “I have less time to play now (job/school/family” and “My friends don’t play anymore.” (I’m basing that on having seen a lot of data - it’s not super open to debate.)

Obviously, this does not mean at all that people mostly end up quitting WoW for these politically-correct reasons.

That's just what GC thinks is real communication (face-to-face talks on Blizzcon / email support exchanges and similar things) and what he thinks is fake and working out for the public (forum rants / "I quit" threads, etc).

In a way, that's hiding your head in a sand - automatic discounting of what you think is too loud to be true / typical / whatever. Since you don't really know what level of loud is normal after your brilliant changes, you are just losing data to unfounded assumptions that way. Then it bites you because you underestimate big issues, that happens with WoW all the time.

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The dev has (had) access to every possible statistic they have.

Like what? Be specific.

The devs have ample prejudices. This gets in the way of the data (and gets in the way of even collecting it).

[Zenny]

"I have less time to play now" is the reason almost every single person I know in used when they quit WoW. This includes about 10 IRL friends/family as well as another dozen in the various guilds I have been in. One guy did quit WoW because he didn't enjoy PvP anymore, that was back in Cata.

[rda]

"I have less time to play now" is the reason almost every single person I know in used when they quit WoW. This includes about 10 IRL friends/family as well as another dozen in the various guilds I have been in. One guy did quit WoW because he didn't enjoy PvP anymore, that was back in Cata.

For tons of people that's just a polite version of "the game became boring / bad", especially if they effectively replaced WoW with other games / TV shows / similar things.

Obviously, when we are talking about getting a job or getting a family or something else similar, it could easily really be "I have less time to play now". But very often it is simply "I have less time to play [this game that stopped being interesting]".

[tankbug]

If you're so deep into the game that a nerf of a CC or something makes you write an angry post about quitting, you're not gonna quit.
If you are disconnected from story, fellow players, and find the game to be more of a chore than fun, you're gonna quit, and probably in silence.

[cface]

This is how it went for me.
* 1 friend quits due to school and not being able to control himselfs (plays too much)
* Another friend quits cause his GF is on a 3 month visit with their baby
* Another just got bored early on in legion
* Another also got bored probably cause of the guys above quit

I am still gaming, in the dark and alone :<
So yes, I understand GC statement very well, nothing is worse when friends just quits playing. My last resort is having joined a guild, as I was a pugger with my friends (casual and with friends > anything else really)

[SirCowdog]

The dev has (had) access to every possible statistic they have. The player has access to this forum and their own anecdotal evidence.
The players are not lying. They just simply can't know. So the players can only speculate - and in environment like MMOC forums, that speculation is echoed and spinned endlessly into whatever narrative people personally want to convey.

The devs are not 100% truthful either, but they base their opinions on the data they've seen.

Objectively the devs always know more about the inner workings of their company and game than the players in the forums. Doesn't mean they always take the right decisions though, but no one can dispute the fact that the devs have access to more and more nuanced information sources than any of us.

If that was what was said then I would not dispute it. I actually mostly agree with your statements. Only consider that players also have access to things such as earnings calls and population monitors, and until recently, sub numbers as well. Devs might have more refined info, but players aren't completely without resources if they're willing to do the work.

Not that I think most forum posters use those resources, but some do. But to automatically assume players are lying while simultaneously automatically accepting something just because a dev said it is stupid.

Before you lose your mind over that, I'll repeat: GC is undoubtedly correct within the context of the information he had access to at the time.

[Deleted]

Like what? Be specific.

Why? The question in this thread doesn't seem to be about the data or the contents. The question seems to revolve around comparison between dev and player and their "honesty" (for some reason).
Player has no access to Blizzard internals. Dev has.
That means player can never base their decision on any data that Blizzard might collect. Dev can (but it doesn't mean they always will or that they take objective decisions only based on pure statistical analysis).

The "players are always right and devs are always lying" is a very strange position to have. Especially since the devs are always in position to take better decisions.

- - - Updated - - -

Not that I think most forum posters use those resources, but some do. But to automatically assume players are lying while simultaneously automatically accepting something just because a dev said it is stupid.

Yeah exactly. Just as the opposite statement where Players are automatically always correct and devs are always lying.
They're both equally strange positions to debate from, but it seems that's where MMOC is.

[rda]

Why? The question in this thread doesn't seem to be about the data or the contents. The question seems to revolve around comparison between dev and player and their "honesty" (for some reason).
Player has no access to Blizzard internals. Dev has.
That means player can never base their decision on any data that Blizzard might collect. Dev can (but it doesn't mean they always will or that they take objective decisions only based on pure statistical analysis).

The "players are always right and devs are always lying" is a very strange position to have. Especially since the devs are always in position to take better decisions.

OK.

If you want to be talking about soft stuff like that, then sure, whatever. For that, "every possible statistic they have" can stay an empty soundbite.

My point was that devs don't have good data on why people quit and any talk like "we know why people quit, it's because they no longer have time to play / their friends no longer play" is complete BS. (Where does this "knowledge" of GC comes from? Exit poll + personal talks, correct? Plus some average metrics regarding average guild sizes bla bla bla interposed with sub numbers with a lag of 6 months or so. That's just laughable.)

[WowIsDead64]

I think of it less truthful and lying. More like one is likely more informed (devs) and the other is less likely to be informed (player).

The only time I could really say the player is lying is if they say they actually know more about WoW metrics can current or former devs. Unless they have some sort of inside source / spy / relative that is leaking them the correct information. At which case I would have to ask for source and failure to produce would quickly have me falling to the floor, rolling left laughing, rolling right laughing, thus more commonly known as ROFL. Also no, fan sites do not count because they do not carry exact information or have access to the raw real data. Unless they can again prove they do and also quote that source.

With current or former devs I kind of have to take it at face value because they actually have or had access to the information. In someone like GC for example I find it hard to believe he would lie. What does he have to gain for example? He no longer works at Blizzard so an employment leash for fear of retaliation doesn't exist. He has no real financial motivation in it anymore. He is no longer part of the creative lead or thought. He really has no motive. He would pretty much just be doing it to be a dick and nothing more. I don't see a track record of this type of behavior to be honest. If it were CM Lore saying this things i could see him saying things to defend his employment because he still wants to have a job tomorrow. But GC? Seems very unlikely.

Where the player that has next to no information. They believe. They see. They think. They feel. But they never really have seen a spreadsheet with the actual produced data from source. They don't get that quarterly report with all the real metrics, graphs, and information that isn't released to the public. So while the devs COULD be lying just to be dicks players really have nothing besides fantasizing the data. Fantasized data often seems to fall right into line of whatever the player believes to be true. If someone hates LFR their dream state data will show it the death of WoW. If it is flight then of course all indications point directly to it. This is because everyone wants to believe they are apart of something greater than themselves. That they are part of a moment of change. I respect peoples opinions but at some point dedication to a cause becomes apparent to everyone but those that are dedicated and truth beyond the cause rapidly moves away from reality.

I mean if GC would have released data saying "the way they are handling flight is causing millions to leave" I would be finding ways to twist it around. I would just take it as face value. Being wrong is ok. At least for me. I mean this is just MMO Champion and people I know next to nothing about. I got bigger fish to fry.

I don't know. I don't believe officials, like GC, just because officials usually should be positive about industry, they're working in, even if it's plain lie. It's politics, you know. May be they even have such requirement in their contracts.

I.e. have you ever seen football players or F1 pilots, telling us, that something is bad in industry, they're involved in? For example F1 is borefest now due to new technical regulations - pilots have to save engines, gearboxes, fuel, tires - not to push themselves and their cars to their limits, so races become more strategical and their results are predetermined in 99% cases. No that "ENGINE CAN BLOW AT ANY MOMENT" factor. Yeah, I understand, that since tobacco sponsors were thrown away, they have been short of money, but it doesn't mean, they need to invent such nonsense regulations, like last man standing "all 20 races with one engine and gearbox" one. But have you ever seen any officials or pilots, complaining about it? No! Everything is fine, because engine manufacturers want to push their hybrid crap! And pilots are just people, who are being paid for this.

Same with game industry. GC has to be positive about it. And positive in this case means - blame players, not game. Players don't unsub, cuz game is flawed, cuz game can't be flawed. Yeah, GC no longer work in Blizzard, but, I guess, he still can't tell us any real truth about it, like what were the real reasons of Cata and MOP design changes, that caused so big fails. May be some day he will write memoirs...

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I'm on my phone, so I apologize if I only quote certain parts.



As I've said in previous posts, many people feel that cancelling their sub is the only way to really communicate their feelings on the game in an effective way. When even well-written posts backed up by logs, videos, and other hard evidence get ignored. When even completely legitimate complaints get dismissed as coming from a "vocal minority", and beta server problems go live after being reported for months, it really drives that home.

So it's no wonder that a person might feel it's necessary to advertise the fact that they quit. The funny part is that a known representative of the very dev team that's guilty of ignoring forum feedback is telling people to post on the forums instead of quitting. That's more than a little suspect, despite his personal record of communication with players.

I don't think you fallow. I got no problem people posting why and all that. I mean I would focus more on official forums but that's just me. What I am saying is the reason people might consider it bullshit is this (and for the record I am not calling it bullshit):

A middle aged attractive women walks up to me at a bar. We smile at each other, make introductions, and we order a drink. Then the first thing she says after that is "by the way I am not married" which would instantly scream in my head "bitch is married". Now maybe we work pasted that first ackward thing but every few minutes pokes up to remind me she isn't married and she is only telling me that so I know the truth. Every time I hear it beyond the first time only would further me from believing her. It would get to the point where I was looking over my shoulder looking for homeboy to rush me.

The reason is a guilty conscience usually needs to be constantly assured. Now you might just be on some grand crusade to let the internet know you quit WoW and I guess that's worth a ton of time for you. Whatever. Not for me but different strokes for different folks I guess. The thing is the tree your barking up at really doesn't care that much. I mean if you are telling people that don't even believe you maybe an audience change would be more effective at getting your message across.

I mean Hilary Clinton wasn't ever spotted at Trump rallies.

Now the point I am trying to make is that it appears you're more worried about winning some forum fued under the strategy of repetitive motion instead of delivering a message. Some people likely see it as troll baiting. I really don't but I see how it can be seen like that. If the discussion ever advanced it might be different but it doesn't. No one here can make the changes reguardless.

With that I am ducking out of the thread. Because all I see in it's future is the same dog being beaten over and over again. If by some odd reason something beyond that dead horse comes up I might pop back in.

[Deleted]

OK.

If you want to be talking about soft stuff like that, then sure, whatever. For that, "every possible statistic they have" can stay an empty soundbite.

My point was that devs don't have good data on why people quit and any talk like "we know why people quit, it's because they no longer have time to play / their friends no longer play" is complete BS. (Where does this "knowledge" of GC comes from? Exit poll + personal talks, correct? Plus some average metrics regarding average guild sizes bla bla bla interposed with sub numbers with a lag of 6 months or so. That's just laughable.)

Yes, I'd imagine the exit poll is their "strongest" tool. It's pretty standard "customer satisfaction" thingy and since Blizzard is a fairly big shop, I'm sure they're going by some "best business practice"-package someone sold them.

More modern shops use a lot of real-time big data BI-analytics, but I'd be surprised if Blizzard did any of it. But who knows, right? The point is we, the players, just simply don't know. Because Blizzard won't let us see.

So us trying to pretend like we have the big picture is rather strange.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I don't know. I don't believe officials, like GC, just because officials usually should be positive about industry, they're working in, even if it's plain lie. It's politics, you know. May be they even have such requirement in their contracts.

I.e. have you ever seen football players or F1 pilots, telling us, that something is bad in industry, they're involved in? For example F1 is borefest now due to new technical regulations - pilots have to save engines, gearboxes, fuel, tires - not to push themselves and their cars to their limits, so races become more strategical and their results are predetermined in 99% cases. No that "ENGINE CAN BLOW AT ANY MOMENT" factor. Yeah, I understand, that since tobacco sponsors were thrown away, they have been short of money, but it doesn't mean, they need to invent such nonsense regulations, like last man standing "all 20 races with one engine and gearbox" one. But have you ever seen any officials or pilots, complaining about it? No! Everything is fine, because engine manufacturers want to push their hybrid crap! And pilots are just people, who are being paid for this.

Same with game industry. GC has to be positive about it. And positive in this case means - blame players, not game. Players don't unsub, cuz game is flawed, cuz game can't be flawed. Yeah, GC no longer work in Blizzard, but, I guess, he still can't tell us any real truth about it, like what were the real reasons of Cata and MOP design changes, that caused so big fails. May be some day he will write memoirs...

Does the gaming indrusty have some league management office? I mean I have seen people reach but when I talk about fantasy data this is exactly what I am talking about. Because GC says good things he must have clauses in his contract or something? It is now an indrusrty wide conspiracy? EA, Riot, Activision, Nintendo and all the rest are in bed with each other over something like flight in WoW?

This is why your case falls on deaf ears man.

Like I said they could be lying but I see no motivation for Riot to shore up WoW subs. If anything fewer playing WoW likely equates to more people playing Riot games. I have no doubts many of these people know each other or have worked with each other in the past so they don't want to throw bricks in each other's faces but conspire over a couple features in a game? Hardly.

Odds are still in his favor Tupac. It's just you against the world I guess.

/dips out for real now

[Altariaz]

Sorry?

I think Ghostcrawler's post has a ton of room for debate. He brings up lots of points and a lot of them are widely open to debate, particularly because he's dealing in the grey areas that players typically don't (players typically deal in extremes).

Perhaps that's why you think there's no ground for debate - you're on the typical hunt for hysterics, don't necessarily recognise a nuanced argument, and think there's nothing to discuss.



Or to post over 26,000 times, without ever actually saying anything... Eh, det?

Anyone can copy/paste some text into a post on a forum, and pretend they are 'doing a service'.

I suggest that YOU give your view of the text with the copy/paste text. It might mean a little more.

[WowIsDead64]

I don't think you fallow. I got no problem people posting why and all that. I mean I would focus more on official forums but that's just me. What I am saying is the reason people might consider it bullshit is this (and for the record I am not calling it bullshit):

A middle aged attractive women walks up to me at a bar. We smile at each other, make introductions, and we order a drink. Then the first thing she says after that is "by the way I am not married" which would instantly scream in my head "bitch is married". Now maybe we work pasted that first ackward thing but every few minutes pokes up to remind me she isn't married and she is only telling me that so I know the truth. Every time I hear it beyond the first time only would further me from believing her. It would get to the point where I was looking over my shoulder looking for homeboy to rush me.

The reason is a guilty conscience usually needs to be constantly assured. Now you might just be on some grand crusade to let the internet know you quit WoW and I guess that's worth a ton of time for you. Whatever. Not for me but different strokes for different folks I guess. The thing is the tree your barking up at really doesn't care that much. I mean if you are telling people that don't even believe you maybe an audience change would be more effective at getting your message across.

I mean Hilary Clinton wasn't ever spotted at Trump rallies.

Now the point I am trying to make is that it appears you're more worried about winning some forum fued under the strategy of repetitive motion instead of delivering a message. Some people likely see it as troll baiting. I really don't but I see how it can be seen like that. If the discussion ever advanced it might be different but it doesn't. No one here can make the changes reguardless.

With that I am ducking out of the thread. Because all I see in it's future is the same dog being beaten over and over again. If by some odd reason something beyond that dead horse comes up I might pop back in.

I would call it "Syndrome of Cataclysm". It was first time, when Blizzard listened to forums. Since then some players, who care about game, including me, I guess, have a fear, that there is some sort of "forum balance", i.e. who complains more - wins. So, if they won't counter all threads and all arguments in this threads - Blizzard may listen to such threads and make changes. Greatest example - flying problem. Yeah, no flying threads were appearing from time to time, but nobody treated them seriously. It was something on a par with "Pet battles are killing Wow - remove them!!!111" nonsense. And how it ended? When pro-flyers come to forums to state their opinion - it was already way too late, cuz Blizzard had already made their decision. And since then when some player creates another, even duplicate and nonsense, "Pro/Anti-X" thread - we just have to answer, even if our answers are 100500th duplicates too.

[rda]

Yes, I'd imagine the exit poll is their "strongest" tool. It's pretty standard "customer satisfaction" thingy and since Blizzard is a fairly big shop, I'm sure they're going by some "best business practice"-package someone sold them.

More modern shops use a lot of real-time big data BI-analytics, but I'd be surprised if Blizzard did any of it. But who knows, right? The point is we, the players, just simply don't know. Because Blizzard won't let us see.

So us trying to pretend like we have the big picture is rather strange.

Does saying that the devs don't have good data on why people quit qualify as "pretending like we have the big picture"? If no, then I am not sure why you posted. If it does qualify, then I don't know why you think it is strange - we aren't talking about alien technology here and GC isn't the only guy who knows a thing or two about developing games. The extent of "we, the players, just simply don't know" varies wildly from player to player - and as someone familiar with the industry, I am telling you right here right now, that most of "we know why people quit" on that front from GC is a combination of pretense and biases / him not thinking about things enough. He doesn't know.

[WowIsDead64]

Does the gaming indrusty have some league management office? I mean I have seen people reach but when I talk about fantasy data this is exactly what I am talking about. Because GC says good things he must have clauses in his contract or something? It is now an indrusrty wide conspiracy? EA, Riot, Activision, Nintendo and all the rest are in bed with each other over something like flight in WoW?

This is why your case falls on deaf ears man.

Like I said they could be lying but I see no motivation for Riot to shore up WoW subs. If anything fewer playing WoW likely equates to more people playing Riot games. I have no doubts many of these people know each other or have worked with each other in the past so they don't want to throw bricks in each other's faces but conspire over a couple features in a game? Hardly.

Odds are still in his favor Tupac. It's just you against the world I guess.

/dips out for real now

Football player from team A doesn't say bad things about his ex team B, even if they're competitors, because then he would have bad reputation and reputation is important for marketing and PR crap. How would he be filmed in shampoo ads, if he tells bad things about football? Same here. Roit wouldn't hire GC, if he would tell bad things about Blizzard, cuz then it would be possible, that at some point GC would say something bad about Riot and whole gaming industry too.

[Deleted]

Does saying that the devs don't have good data on why people quit qualify as "pretending like we have the big picture"? If no, then I am not sure why you posted. If it does qualify, then I don't know why you think it is strange - we aren't talking about alien technology here and GC isn't the only guy who knows a thing or two about developing games.

Yes it definitely qualifies as pretending.
Please point me to the other guys you're referring to who know about how and what data Blizzard collects and how they analyze it?
I'd like to read their posts.

[rda]

Yes it definitely qualifies as pretending.
Please point me to the other guys you're referring to who know about how and what data Blizzard collects and how they analyze it?
I'd like to read their posts.

I am such a guy in that I know what kind of analysis is usually done / can be done at all, and I am saying that the results are destroyed completely by input biases.

Ie, the first option in the exit poll better be a dummy which is neutral wrt further analysis (and ideally filtered out altogether), because it is going to be picked very often simply because people are trying to complete the form faster. And the safest-worded option along the lines of "it's not you, it's me" for which both "I no longer have time" and "my friends have quit" count will outrun the rest no matter what simply because it is the safest-worded option, and people pick it because they want to be nice (both when they think they are quitting for good, and even more often when they think they might return).

GC says right at the beginning that he won't discuss what data they have, but it's kind of Polichinelle's secret - the data they have is unuseful for anything conclusive. (Plus I guess, if pressed, GC will say that he is mainly talking about data collected by Riot, not Blizzard.)

[dmfg]

I am such a guy in that I know what kind of analysis is usually done / can be done at all, and I am saying that the results are destroyed completely by input biases.

Ie, the first option in the exit poll better be a dummy which is neutral wrt further analysis (and ideally filtered out altogether), because it is going to be picked very often simply because people are trying to complete the form faster. And the safest-worded option along the lines of "it's not you, it's me" for which both "I no longer have time" and "my friends have quit" count will outrun the rest no matter what simply because it is the safest-worded option, and people pick it because they want to be nice (both when they think they are quitting for good, and even more often when they think they might return).

GC says right at the beginning that he won't discuss what data they have, but it's kind of Polichinelle's secret - the data they have is unuseful for anything conclusive. (Plus I guess, if pressed, GC will say that he is mainly talking about data collected by Riot, not Blizzard.)

I can totally see the people frothing at the mouth on the forums about how blizz ruined the game, then deliberately choosing the "nice" option on the exit poll.

Edit: I am such a guy that I know exactly how blizzard collects the data, and I say the exact opposite to you.