Ghostcrawler on unsubbing

[Deleted]

the answers are almost always “I have less time to play now (job/school/family” and “My friends don’t play anymore.”

I’m basing that on having seen a lot of data - it’s not super open to debate.

But why does less time equal stop playing? That's a very binary choice. Especially since Blizzard has been so focussed on turning a lot of their games into short 15 minute events. With two years between WoW expansions, and the time it takes to level to the new cap seemingly ever shorter, why aren't people sticking around for a handful of dungeons a week?

Similarly, why don't friends play any more? My classmates got me playing WoW back in 2005. But it didn't take long for me to get a whole network of contacts and even some actual friends through the game itself. Since 2009, the game has actively encouraged ignoring these sometimes loose relationships. The dungeon finder tool, and the deliberate destruction of server communities by making every other feature cross-realm has wrecked havoc on the concept of 'friends'. Having a group of folks who wanted to dungeon-run together might at some point have meant helping one gear up a healer or a tank. All those shared experiences foster relationships. Now you just wait an extra five minutes for a random tank from a random realm that you don't even interact with at all.

Obviously I don't have the numbers for this, but I imagine a lot of people don't play the game with a group of real-life friends. Their stay in Azeroth has become very anonymous and very lonely over the last couple of years.

[dmfg]

But why does less time equal stop playing? That's a very binary choice. Especially since Blizzard has been so focussed on turning a lot of their games into short 15 minute events. With two years between WoW expansions, and the time it takes to level to the new cap seemingly ever shorter, why aren't people sticking around for a handful of dungeons a week

I think you answered your own question there - the move to add short content was almost certainly their response to people saying they didn't have time. For a raider, if you don't have time to gear up and also raid, what's the point in playing?

Similarly, if all my wow friends (not necessarily RL friends) moved to a new game, I doubt I'd build another complete friend network - I'd jump ship with them.

[rda]

I can totally see the people frothing at the mouth on the forums about how blizz ruined the game, then deliberately choosing the "nice" option on the exit poll.

Edit: I am such a guy that I know exactly how blizzard collects the data, and I say the exact opposite to you.

That's exactly what happens - someone raging on the forums will then select the tamest option on the poll. Because forums and personal polls are very different things.

Ask GC.

[Deleted]

I am such a guy in that I know what kind of analysis is usually done / can be done at all, and I am saying that the results are destroyed completely by input biases.

So you're saying you know exactly what data Blizzard has? So you must work at Blizzard?
You commenting about your company internals here is bit of a scoop, if that's the case.

Ok - in that case I'm ready to believe what you're saying. GC and the rest of the devs are full of shit - but I think you need show some way we can verify you're really working at Blizzard. Because right now you're just another forum dude, trying to convince everyone you carry the secret flame of knowledge.

But of course you're most likely not a disgruntled Blizzard dev, but you're just wording your posts in broad general terms to give an illusion you know what's going behind the curtains. In reality you don't know about the specific data collection or analysis done at Blizzard. None of us do.

We can of course do things like apply "generic branch standards" or whatever other bullshit we can spin around this to support our narrative. But the fact still is that none of us really know what data is collected and how they analyse it (and how important that data is in their development process). These are all things that vary from company to company, depending on their maturity.

[Deleted]

12 posts in and three people have successfully derailed discussion. Well done guys I'm proud of you.

Derailed from what?

OP didn't even start anything, he just posted a wall of text.

[Deleted]

Does the gaming indrusty have some league management office? I mean I have seen people reach but when I talk about fantasy data this is exactly what I am talking about. Because GC says good things he must have clauses in his contract or something? It is now an indrusrty wide conspiracy? EA, Riot, Activision, Nintendo and all the rest are in bed with each other over something like flight in WoW?

This is why your case falls on deaf ears man.

Like I said they could be lying but I see no motivation for Riot to shore up WoW subs. If anything fewer playing WoW likely equates to more people playing Riot games. I have no doubts many of these people know each other or have worked with each other in the past so they don't want to throw bricks in each other's faces but conspire over a couple features in a game? Hardly.

Odds are still in his favor Tupac. It's just you against the world I guess.

/dips out for real now

Only common sense should make you raise an eyebrow when someone tells you people stop playing any particular game due to reasons not tied to the game by itself, especially when it used to be one of the most popular game of all time. Especially when the decrease in subs occurred as brutally as it did in wotlk (it happened after ulduar, the game then lost a lot of steam).

It doesn't necessarily mean GC is lying but it should make you ask yourselves whether the poll in question allows for the leaving player to give relevant feedback, and require further analysis.

Knowing how to establish relevant metrics and analyzing the results is a full time job that usually requires a PhD in social sciences.

As an example, the fact that a lot of players where leaving due to the fact they did perceive no friends of theirs were playing should be telling that there is a social issue in wow (eg the game doesn't favor making new friends in game).

As for the "I don't have time anymore to play" could be understood as a general lack of interest in the game, which can obviously be caused by a combination of the game's feature.

These possibilities are most likely being picked a lot because they are the most generic of the possible answers.

[rda]

So you're saying you know exactly what data Blizzard has? So you must work at Blizzard?

???

My words: I know what kind of analysis is usually done / can be done at all, and I am saying that the results are destroyed completely by input biases.

I am not saying I work for Blizzard.

Is the entire point of your bait is to make me say that I am not working for Blizzard after which you want to celebrate with "then you know nothing"? Then have at it. Your point is similar to what "but how can you know how to drive the car of my uncle while you only ever drove other cars and never that particular one?" would be from someone inexperienced with cars in 1900s, but whatever.

[Deleted]

???

My words: I know what kind of analysis is usually done / can be done at all, and I am saying that the results are destroyed completely by input biases.

I am not saying I work for Blizzard.

Is the entire point of your bait is to make me say that I am not working for Blizzard after which you want to celebrate with "then you know nothing"? Then have at it. Your point is similar to what "but how can you know how to drive the car of my uncle while you only ever drove other cars and never that particular one?" would be from someone inexperienced with cars in 1900s, but whatever.

And your point is basically insisting you really, really know these things, just because you do (sorry, can't tell why, but you just do) - and the person (CG in this case) that logically could possibly have some tiny semblance of knowing what goes on at Blizzard is full of shit. *shrug*

[rda]

And your point is basically insisting you really, really know these things, just because you do (sorry, can't tell why, but you just do) - and the person (CG in this case) that logically could possibly have some tiny semblance of knowing what goes on at Blizzard is full of shit. *shrug*

LOL

Two things for you:

First. A reasonable person would try to learn / get to know more. Like, you know, ask questions which make sense. (For example, when I see a guy on these forums who posts like he knows statistics and says something I think is silly like "warcraftrealms activity data is hopelessly skewed", my response isn't "you don't know shit", it's "what is the skew?") It is evident you don't know what even to ask, all you have is "I don't know shit so you must not know shit as well". This is boring.

Second. I don't care what you think about what I am saying at all. I am way past the point where I needed to prove things on the forums. I am posting on what I know as part of the discussion. There will be replies in the thread that have more than your "I don't know shit so you must not know shit as well" ones, I'd rather reply to them.

[Deleted]

LOL

Two things for you:

First. A reasonable person would try to learn / get to know more. Like, you know, ask questions which make sense. (For example, when I see a guy on these forums who posts like he knows statistics and says something I think is silly like "warcraftrealms activity data is hopelessly skewed", my response isn't "you don't know shit", it's "what is the skew?") It is evident you don't know what even to ask, all you have is "I don't know shit so you must not know shit as well". This is boring.

Second. I don't care what you think about what I am saying at all. I am way past the point where I needed to prove things on the forums. I am posting on what I know as part of the discussion. There will be replies in the thread that have more than your "I don't know shit so you must not know shit as well" ones, I'd rather reply to them.

1) A reasonable person would realize that none of us knows what really goes on at Blizzard and that we're just spitballing some speculative stuff that seems to support our own anecdotal narratives - whatever those might be (in most cases those condense to "devs are full of shit and are actively working to ruin the game" here). Reasonable person would read GC's post, shrug and move on. But this forum of course spins it into some sort of inter-company conspiracy where Riot and Blizzard work together (through their complete incompetence with basic statistical analysis) to lie about exit reason - because we all know majorty of people *must* be quitting over nerfs.

2) Ok. Sure, reply to those. I don't control your reply button. I also didn't start this exchange. You did

[Menz]

Does this idiot realize people choose the "don't have time" option because it's the quickest way to unsub without being nagged further as to why?

....

Apparently not.. Just glad he is not in charge any more.

[Mormolyce]

And how do you know how objective or introspective they are? Are you professor-X?

It's pretty obvious.

[rda]

It's pretty obvious.

I guess you should make it clearer that you are applying "It's not so much that they are lying, rather that they're not sufficiently objective. Or even introspective about their own motives in many cases." both to players and to the devs.

[Osmeric]

I would call it "Syndrome of Cataclysm". It was first time, when Blizzard listened to forums.

You mean, when Blizzard decided to make Cataclysm harder than Wrath, it was because they listened to the forums during Wrath?

The retreat from difficulty in later Cataclysm wasn't because of forum complaints. It was because of quitting. GC in his quote there says players don't quit over specific game issues (like flying or loss of a particular spell), but he carefully said nothing about cumulative impact of many changes, particularly from design philosophy shifts.

BTW, they should be able to tell from in-game stats who your "friends" are: they are the other players you tend to group up with and exchange messages with. Extracting clusters like this should be straightforward from their server logs. They should be able to see that these clusters tend to leave the game together, or that someone is at increased risk of leaving if their cluster falls apart. This, not exit questions, may be the source of his observation about people quitting because their friends left.

- - - Updated - - -

I guess you should make it clearer that you are applying "It's not so much that they are lying, rather that they're not sufficiently objective. Or even introspective about their own motives in many cases." both to players and to the devs.

Devs have motivation to not lie, since lying in public could affect both their current and future job prospects. Players? They have no disincentive to lie like rugs on forums or in feedback.

I've sometimes thought that if a game company finds players are lying on the forums, it "fire" them by banning them from said forums, and let players know this will happen. This could greatly improve the quality of the feedback, which is a big reason forums exist.

[ItachiZaku]

Also, I was fucking right ^^ I was saying for years that the main reasons people quit the game have nothing to do with the game itself.

Except, it is exactly the game. The game isn't as fun, so I'd rather do something else. Since I'm not on, friend 1 who mostly PVPs and loves running twinks with me won't be on as much, eventually unsubs. Friends 2-5 like to raid, but not hardcore. Since others left, they only have LFR and with me and F1 out, that's even less of a raid team so the couple in that set level for wildstar, which leaves 2. One does there own thing and doesn't care, likes to guild chat though. The other just likes group activities. Sure, she can solo old content, but she'd rather farm that old content with people she knows.

So you see, since I don't like the game, I helped to cause 6 less subs. Extreme? Not really. When the pool dwindles due to a couple people leaving since the game isn't fun for them anymore, those they play with have less of an experience, since the game forces them into these boxes. Sure, you could say "make new friends", but when you've been playing with the game people for 3-7 years, you sometimes just don't want to do that.

Maybe everyone filters back in here or there and cross over for a week or two, so you all token up for another month but after gathering squirrels and kicking nuts 4 more times, you find yourself not logging in for 8 days and...

[WowIsDead64]

You mean, when Blizzard decided to make Cataclysm harder than Wrath, it was because they listened to the forums during Wrath?

The retreat from difficulty in later Cataclysm wasn't because of forum complaints. It was because of quitting. GC in his quote there says players don't quit over specific game issues (like flying or loss of a particular spell), but he carefully said nothing about cumulative impact of many changes, particularly from design philosophy shifts.

BTW, they should be able to tell from in-game stats who your "friends" are: they are the other players you tend to group up with and exchange messages with. Extracting clusters like this should be straightforward from their server logs. They should be able to see that these clusters tend to leave the game together, or that someone is at increased risk of leaving if their cluster falls apart. This, not exit questions, may be the source of his observation about people quitting because their friends left.

No. Easier after losing several millions of players. I meant exactly, that many players were whining about unplayable 5ppls and raids and Blizzard listened to them. Yeah, it happened due to usubs mostly, but some players decided, that it was done due to whine and started to "counter-whine" (that's, when "white knighting" became massive). Since then both sides became paranoid about forum threads. Especially hardcores, who thought, that more whine could cause even more "taking their precious game away from them", cuz Blizzards' PR BS, they were exploiting back and Vanilla, TBC and even WotLK, caused illusion, that game was hardcore and that hardcores had some sort of privileges in it. Also this situation caused illusion, that making your problem public could help with solving it faster.

And yeah. My initial post in this thread was: Who tells this? Guy, whose game design caused loss of one player every 15 seconds? Who do you listen to?

[Deleted]

I've sometimes thought that if a game company finds players are lying on the forums, it "fire" them by banning them from said forums, and let players know this will happen. This could greatly improve the quality of the feedback, which is a big reason forums exist.

I remember some of the GM's calling people out in forums many many years ago. Something in style with "Tried to verify your complaint, but none of your characters seem to have done the content you're complaining about".

But that was long before the re-structuring of their support staff (back when they really were GM's and not 1st line helpdesk). I always thought they should do strict(er) moderation, especially in the feedback forums, but it seems to have gone the other way.

[Sansnom]

How can statistics lie:
The next month, i manage to sell SIX (6) miximagaziggies. Now i can boast i have achieved a 50% raise of my sales within 2 months of the miximagaziggies release to the public!

Forget my stupidity but please explain it in a way where my low IQ can understand.

You sold 4 in the first month. 6 in the second month. You claim you 50% more in the second month. So, where is the lie?

Greg Street should have never ever claim he knows better because "data".

Ok. Ignorant question again. Why not? He worked for Blizzard. He has the data. So he should know better than anyone else here. Or are you claiming he is wrong because he does not understand statistics?

Having to mention (nonexisting for the public) data as justification for his point made is just weak. If he ever went to court with an argument like that, he'd lose the trial. Of course internetz are not courts,

Really? He is backing up his argument using data that is available to him is considered to be weak?

but that doesn't mean you must resort to "I R TEH AUTHORITY, I KNOWZ" arguments to make a point across.

Or he is merely saying his arguments is based on his experience in the field.

As a final question, since you clearly disagree with him, where are your reasons and support evidence? You can disagree with him, but you cannot claim he is wrong unless you have showing to show to support it.

[rda]

Devs have motivation to not lie, since lying in public could affect both their current and future job prospects. Players? They have no disincentive to lie like rugs on forums or in feedback.

I've sometimes thought that if a game company finds players are lying on the forums, it "fire" them by banning them from said forums, and let players know this will happen. This could greatly improve the quality of the feedback, which is a big reason forums exist.

When GC says things like --- "However, for games like WoW and LoL, the answers are almost always 'I have less time to play now (job/school/family' and 'My friends don’t play anymore.' (I’m basing that on having seen a lot of data - it’s not super open to debate.)", --- he's not trying to deceive, he's just relaying his fantasies, to put it bluntly. If we were to sit through that "a lot of data" that he values so much, his laughable hypothesis regarding why most people leave WoW would have exploded in the first hour of the review.

In short: GC is a human, sometimes he says silly things pretending (and thinking) to know more than he does.

[Osmeric]

No. Easier after losing several millions of players. I meant exactly, that many players were whining about unplayable 5ppls and raids and Blizzard listened to them. Yeah, it happened due to usubs mostly, but some players decided, that it was due to whine and started to "counter-whine". Since then both sides became paranoid about forum topics.

Where is your evidence Blizzard listened to them?

- - - Updated - - -

When GC says things like --- "However, for games like WoW and LoL, the answers are almost always 'I have less time to play now (job/school/family' and 'My friends don’t play anymore.' (I’m basing that on having seen a lot of data - it’s not super open to debate.)", --- he's not trying to deceive, he's just relaying his fantasies, to put it bluntly.

Both of those theories could be pulled directly from server data, with zero player exit feedback. They could note that players tend to play less hours/day before they quit, and they could note that players tend to quit after the players they had tended to play with had quit.