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  1. #281
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    Danner had thrown out the lynch Kryll, Ret, or Marack lynch idea, but more as a who to lynch the next day. I don't recall an actual discussion of the three of us specifcally weighing the merits of who is the better target than a no lynch. I did bring Danner back into the discussion of possible scum because he was pointing at the three of us while conveniently not providing any reasons why he shouldn't be considered when he should have been considered for the exact reasons he was pointing fingers at us.
    @Monkz one thing that bothered me about the way the day ended was that you were on Danner, Marack jumped second, then you unvoted to discuss. When I finally voted Danner bringing it back up to two you could have revoted making it 3 of 5 and gotten the lynch on Danner. Instead you stated it wasn't going to happen and that we wouldn't be able to come to a consensus on Crackle/Ret (i.e. lets lynch someone who really hasn't been up for discussion at the last second when they aren't here.) Why didn't you revote Danner? Why not vote No lynch then to secure that?

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by Kryllian View Post
    I don't recall an actual discussion of the three of us specifcally weighing the merits of who is the better target than a no lynch.
    I had to go back and re-read to confirm, but you're right; an actual lynch target wasn't discussed nearly as much as the merits of a no-lynch on its own.

    Still, I was pretty surprised to see people voting for Danner. I know we've thrown around the Godfather theory as a possibility, but that's typically left on the back-burner until other options have been exhausted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marack View Post
    Last several posts and pushing for no-lynch dont sit well with me.
    Can you elaborate on which of/how Danner's posts before this one of yours bothered you? I see the comment about how he was the only one pushing the no-lynch, but this sounds like it's directed at something in the actual content of his posts.

  3. #283
    First of all. Lets rule out the possibility of a normal game by now. I think it's getting to the point where it's simply too far fetched.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kryllian View Post
    @Monkz one thing that bothered me about the way the day ended was that you were on Danner, Marack jumped second, then you unvoted to discuss. When I finally voted Danner bringing it back up to two you could have revoted making it 3 of 5 and gotten the lynch on Danner. Instead you stated it wasn't going to happen and that we wouldn't be able to come to a consensus on Crackle/Ret (i.e. lets lynch someone who really hasn't been up for discussion at the last second when they aren't here.) Why didn't you revote Danner? Why not vote No lynch then to secure that?
    I second-guessed myself basically. Danner made a interesting point, and I quite liked his defense in the end, so I chickened out.
    Now that we have another no-kill night, that seems like a wise decision, unless there's a cult out there. Now remember, cults are rare -- and there's a reason for that. They are bloody annoying to deal with, and like other bastard mechanics, it makes you second guess your previous reads/investigation results, which sucks.


    In other news; I did get a result last night, but I'm gonna let some discussion happen, before revealing anything. Whether that's wise or not, time will tell.

  4. #284
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    Ok, so if it's not a cult then what else could be at play. Marack and I both posed the idea that scum is purposely not doing a NK just to mess but as it's been pointed that would be foolish as are hampering themselves by not using their main tool. For those more experienced, what else could explain the lack of kills short of the perfect blocker?

  5. #285
    I personally think we're dealing with an SK-team, consisting of 3 people.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Either that or a cult. And I think it's more hope than actual reasoning that it's not a cult.

  6. #286
    Scarab Lord Crackleslap's Avatar
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    I'm feeling pretty confident it's a cult at this point or we're all town or something dumb and largehorn is someone that needs to be fired out of a cannon into the sun. There's no way I'm THAT good in my jails. xD

    I'm curious about when to reveal who I blocked. It obviously wasn't Monkz. ( @Monkz if your result is 'no result' then your target was my target - which I hope is not the case).

  7. #287
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    How does a three person SK team explain no kills? The SK team with three people and only Virothe could do the kills so they're limited to lynching us at this point?

  8. #288
    Scarab Lord Crackleslap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kryllian View Post
    How does a three person SK team explain no kills? The SK team with three people and only Virothe could do the kills so they're limited to lynching us at this point?
    If it's an SK team it could easily just be a mafia branded as "serial killer team". They still have the 1 kill.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Considering that the Serial Killers colour is red. So it could be likely.

  9. #289
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    If it's a Mafia/SK team of three, Virothe stated he tried to kill Danner N1 and N2. That can be explained by the blocks those nights.

    Monkz was the obvious Night block N3 so why not go for Danner N3? How did he survive?

  10. #290
    Quote Originally Posted by Monkz View Post
    I personally think we're dealing with an SK-team, consisting of 3 people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crackleslap View Post
    If it's an SK team it could easily just be a mafia branded as "serial killer team". They still have the 1 kill.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Considering that the Serial Killers colour is red. So it could be likely.
    Barring mod bastardization, I don't think so. Virothe's flip said he needed to be the last category standing.

  11. #291
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    Nice catch Ret! I remember reading that when he flipped and thinking that it probably meant multiple groups and then got busy with other things had forgotten until just now.

  12. #292
    Blademaster Marack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reticence View Post
    Can you elaborate on which of/how Danner's posts before this one of yours bothered you? I see the comment about how he was the only one pushing the no-lynch, but this sounds like it's directed at something in the actual content of his posts.
    Its not one post. Its the string of them towards the end of the day that did it for me. It didnt feel like the normal town danner reasoning behind it. Just focusing the no-lynch. Not fully considering other options. Completely dismissing/"disproving" theories others people put out. When I have a little more time, Ill re-read the end of the day and let you know what I was thinking.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crackleslap View Post
    I'm feeling pretty confident it's a cult at this point or we're all town or something dumb and largehorn is someone that needs to be fired out of a cannon into the sun. There's no way I'm THAT good in my jails. xD
    I agree. You cant be that good. Cult could be something similar to the Christmas game. Not a guaranteed convert. Could take multiple days to convert with an increased chance each day. It could be that cult has gotten unlucky and picked someone that was JK'd or didnt turn.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kryllian View Post
    Nice catch Ret! I remember reading that when he flipped and thinking that it probably meant multiple groups and then got busy with other things had forgotten until just now.
    Someone did say it could be multiple people with the same category earlier in game. Shortly after day broke from his lynch. I doubt that is the case.


    With everything that has gone on, to include the complete lack of NKs, I feel this is a cult game. The convert% might be based on number of attempts. The ability to convert might have a cooldown. Thats the only way I can see town not being overrun and the game over by now. Unless the convert target or leader was blocked.

  13. #293
    Crackle, I think you should tell us who you jailed.

  14. #294
    Last night gave us five tidbits of information.

    #1: There is no cult.

    We are on day 5 now. There should be 5 cultists around, out of 6 living players. Even if we somehow magically blocked two out of four recruitments, there would still be a cult majority. Let the cult thing rest.

    I have to admit that blocking 4 cult attempts isn't terribly less likely than blocking 4 kill attempts. But still.

    #2: Monkz isn't scum.

    Well, this is more of a read for me. Basically, he didn't mod-majority hammer me. And I do not think anyone would have blamed him if he did. I realize this isn't helpful to you unless you know my allegiance, but keep this in mind.

    Not that this is changing my read on him. But it's nice to have it confirmed.

    #3: Reticence isn't scum

    Like Monkz, he had every opportunity to hammer me. He didn't. I am pretty sure he was around at the deadline, there would be no reason for him to bow out when he posted just earlier.

    Now, Ret might have gotten into trouble had he hammered me; unlike Monkz. But it would still have been worth it IMO. I'm putting Ret just below Crackle in the trust bin as a result.

    Which limits my pool of suspects to Kryllian and Marack!
    @Reticence: I'm sorry for short-circuiting your arguments and finding my answer without discussing with you. But as you said yourself...

    If that’s true, and you’re really town, then you need to knock it off. We’ve seen this before, when Dendrek and I butted heads in the West Wing game. Neither of us could post without the other taking it in the worst possible way, and we took days to recover from that, much to our detriment.
    I think on some psychological level I cannot stomach that debate.
    @Reticence: It is also interesting to see that you think I was a priority target. I have a hard time believing this myself, but I have no doubts now that you believe so. Your argumentation is sound. Maybe I am just focusing on other aspects when it comes to who is lynchable. I mean, I've been barely avoiding the lynch three times now. I still think I am super lynchable.

    #4: Scum are getting desperate

    I am obviously in this position because the mafia is trying very hard to lynch me. Because both Marack and Kryllian are trying for that per last nights vote trail. And I now have town reads on the rest of you. So either both of them are scum aiming for that. Or we have less than two scum around. Either way I should be good voting for either. Kryllian first, by virtue of seniority in the suspect bin I guess? Consider my vote on him.

    But let's see where the investigate goes.

    #5: This gambit was a success

    Maybe we did get lucky with Crackleslap hitting the jackpot. Maybe there is something very wrong with my understanding of the game. Maybe the scum did some insane nonsensical gamble.
    But: We got another investigate. This is the best outcome.
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  15. #295
    Scarab Lord Crackleslap's Avatar
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    Aight. The irony if ret saying we should lynch the jailed target. Ret was it.

  16. #296
    That is ironic.
    @Reticence: Welcome to my end of the pool, it seems. I still do not think you are scum. But we now share a common goal: explaining where the night kills went.
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  17. #297
    Quote Originally Posted by Marack View Post
    When I have a little more time, Ill re-read the end of the day and let you know what I was thinking.
    I appreciate it. Your vote on him was a little surprising, all things considered.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    #3: Reticence isn't scum
    Alright. I'm not going to lie, I was expecting to meet more resistance, but your thought process makes sense.

    I think on some psychological level I cannot stomach that debate.
    I'm not sure I follow this, though?

    I mean, I've been barely avoiding the lynch three times now. I still think I am super lynchable.
    I mean, you're not wrong. If yesterday showed us anything, it's apparently that you're lynchable. My argument to the contrary was primarily in the context of N2, though I would have expected it to remain true afterwards due to Monkz' investigation of you. We are now apparently in the Twilight Zone, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crackleslap View Post
    Aight. The irony if ret saying we should lynch the jailed target. Ret was it.
    Really. Well, now I'm even more confused.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    @Reticence: Welcome to my end of the pool, it seems. I still do not think you are scum. But we now share a common goal: explaining where the night kills went.
    So it would seem! Unfortunately, each theory seems as implausible as the next. At this point, even a cult scenario requires them to have been blocked to almost the same degree as a mafia/SK scenario. So we're back to why aren't more people dead and/or why has the game not ended?

    I have to head to work for now (and then a social thing after), but I'm going to give this some more thought. I'll try to map out some possibilities for kill targets, but I probably won't be able to sit down and do so properly until later tonight.

  18. #298
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    Last night gave us five tidbits of information.

    #1: There is no cult.
    The fact that you summarily dismiss the possibility of a cult and that you have pretty much done so from the beginning is not a very good town activity as we should be weighing all options. To simply state "they should have the majority by now" is not a good conclusion, but a speculation on your part.

    When I added the cult in the xmas game I read a lot on ways to prevent a quick overrun. As it was pointed out by multiple sources you need a check in place otherwise if you don't lynch the cult D1 they will recruit every night and replace any lynch thereafter. If this is a cult, the implimenting a simple limitation on their recruitment would slow it down.

    Something like "if you attempt to recruit someone with a Night Kill ability you die". That would make a cult leader more cautious at the beginning of the game and they may opt not to recruit until they have identified some guaranteed townies to recruit. Given that with Virothe flipping SK, there has been some discussion of a SK duo/trio a cult leader may not have even started recruiting until N3. '

    Another easy limitation that would explain the lack of cult majority is if they could only try to recruit someone who had a vote on them at the end of the day. That would let them choose from Danner/Marack/Kryllian on D1, Danner D2, No one D3, or Danner D4. If you are a cult leader, then you could have only have recruited one other person at this point. If you were recruited N1, then this limit would mean cult only has 2 people.

    So yes, there is still a possibility we are up against a cult.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    #2: Monkz isn't scum.
    At this point I still haven't reached a comfort level that if there is a cult that Monkz hasn't been recruited. If this is a Mafia/SK we are still facing then yes I trust him nearly completely at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    #3: Reticence isn't scum
    Granted I was distracted by work and while I was online it was in the background much of that last 60 minutes except when I was posting. By his own post #278 he stated he barely made it back in time and was uncomfortable lynching you at that time. Now if you're town, then yes, I could see how that wins you town points. But for someone like myself who still sees you as a high suspect, that lowers my view of him and puts him more on the scum side.


    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    #4: Scum are getting desperate
    I agree here. But I will preface it with they are getting desperate or they are playing a long game and it is working perfectly so far. A couple people have brought up the idea that they are taking a risk and purposely not going for NK's. If we haven't targeted any of the for lynch so far they may be trying to use that to their advantage by sowing chaos by not picking us off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post
    #5: This gambit was a success
    Yes, we have one more investigation result but if this gambit is a success or not remains to be seen. It is unlikely that Ret was investigated or else there would have been a "no result" and no reason for Monkz not to mention that right away. Which means that either Marack or I were investigated. If he had a guilty on one of us, why not announce it right away. If he had an innocent, then I can see waiting until knowing who was RB'd. At this point we've been told that Ret was RB'd. By your argument that means Ret is Mafia and his kill was blocked. But that contradicts your defense of him earlier in this post.

    As for you being an easy lynch target, its pretty obvious at this point that you're not. Any other game where town Danner sees someone avoiding a lynch multiple days due to last minute discussions pointing in another direction you would be jumping all over that. But as it's you that is in that hot seat you are effectively waving your hand and trying to say "this is not the scum you are looking for..."

    I am admittedly following the same behavior that has screwed me up as town in the past. Hounding one person and trying to get them to convince me why I am wrong. Now if we are both town, then scum can sit back, laugh their asses off, and avoid attention. But I'm still waiting for you Danner to provide a plausible explanation as to how we have no Night Kills at this point and yet it couldn't possibly be a recruit only cult. Let alone explain how you're still alive. Even if you are an easy lynch target, A Mafia should have picked you off by now given the multiple chances where the kill wouldn't be blocked due to revealed info.

  19. #299
    At this point I think it's more likely a cult with some sort of restriction.
    If it is a regular mafia team, with a kill each night -- my head is gonna explode.

    Danner/Ret cults perhaps? Danner as the cult leader with a vest and investigation immunity?
    At this point the no-NK's is getting so ridiculous that we can only guess. And all those guesses is gonna seem far fetched.

    I guess I can reveal my investigation, now that Crackle revealed who he jailed (I wanted Crackle to reveal his target before me, in case he said the same target as me, then I knew he was lying). I actually considered investigating Ret again, but I suspected Crackle to jail him.

    I investigated Marack, and he turned up innocent.


    @Danner Since you firmly believe that we're not dealing with a cult, certainly you would feel that another no-lynch is the way to go? Nothing has changed since yesterday, other than another investigation result. We still have the same numbers, so the same logic should apply, no? (I disagree with this, since I believe we're dealing with a cult, but I want your perspective)

  20. #300
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    What made you think that Ret was going to be jailed last night?

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