Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, says AI

[Deleted]

France has more immigrants and also more Muslims (4% vs 8% according to wikipedia), than means more effectiveness of Le Pen message.

That is true. However: Le Pen also comes across as more radical than Hofer.
One of the reasons why Hofer was as successful as he was is that he managed to position himself as somewhat moderate, and appealed to not only the FPÖ core voter base but also a lot of more neutral people. He was less "aggressive" in his program than Le Pen appears to be, and that is a factor that I would not underestimate when it comes to actually voting on election day.
Yes, Le Pen has more attack surface to work with, so to say. But she also polarises more. Just like the FN inherently polarises more than the FPÖ.

[Cizr]

Of course they are, they've even openly said that their absolute best friend in the whole world is the far right that drives muslims to join them.

- - - Updated - - -



It fascinates me how two people can have such different views on reality. The real madmen are on the far right.

Its not the right who brings hordes of third world immigrants with so different "culture" into Europe. Europe didnt manage to integrate gypsies after hundreds of years. What chances do they have with culture so different to ours?

[Deleted]

Its not the right who brings hordes of third world immigrants with so different "culture" into Europe. Europe didnt manage to integrate gypsies after hundreds of years. What chances do they have with culture so different to ours?

No, but it's the right that's pushing for authoritarian governments, and that's a much bigger threat in my eyes.

[May90]

That is true. However: Le Pen also comes across as more radical than Hofer.
One of the reasons why Hofer was as successful as he was is that he managed to position himself as somewhat moderate, and appealed to not only the FPÖ core voter base but also a lot of more neutral people. He was less "aggressive" in his program than Le Pen appears to be, and that is a factor that I would not underestimate when it comes to actually voting on election day.
Yes, Le Pen has more attack surface to work with, so to say. But she also polarises more. Just like the FN inherently polarises more than the FPÖ.

Yes, the way I see it, Le Pen's main weakness is that she appeals to a relatively narrow group of the French voters; her views are too extreme. A lot of people whose candidate was out after the first round will change their votes to Macron or some other reasonable candidate, while very few of those who didn't vote for Le Pen in the first round are going to switch to her in the second one.

Especially since Le Pen has proven funding by Russian banks, is pretty much honeymoon lovers with Putin and Trump, and since her daddy has quite a reputation (in the negative sense) - French media will have a lot to pick on.

[Deleted]

Yes, the way I see it, Le Pen's main weakness is that she appeals to a relatively narrow group of the French voters; her views are too extreme. A lot of people whose candidate was out after the first round will change their votes to Macron or some other reasonable candidate, while very few of those who didn't vote for Le Pen in the first round are going to switch to her in the second one.

Exactly. That is the thing: The more radical you come across, the smaller is the group of non-core voters that will consider voting for you. If Hofer had not managed to position himself as somewhat moderate, he would not have had the success that he ended up having (even though he ultimately did not win).
Le Pen has this option and bonus to a lesser extent, since she is inherently more radical in her positions than Hofer is, and also pretty vocal about it. Hofer managed to pull people from the right and the center, and while Le Pen will surely do that as well to some degree, she definitely seems more like a fringe candidate in general.

That said: I am not saying that she can't win, of course. But it won't be a walk in the park for her.

[minteK917]

France has more immigrants and also more Muslims (4% vs 8% according to wikipedia), than means more effectiveness of Le Pen message.

Except unlike the united states and brexit, there is more then one choice against immigration. They dont have to vote for lunatic against immigration, they can vote for reasonable and also against immigration. The voting style does not favor her at all, just like it did her father. She can sweep and get into the second round, but the problem then is that she will be pitted against someone also on the right, with a more moderate message, the left have no choice but to pick that person. Le pen wont get the socialism votes, Macron and Fillon can.

[Estherna]

No, but it's the right that's pushing for authoritarian governments, and that's a much bigger threat in my eyes.

With all due respect, I think that you don't really know what European history looks like. Since thousands of years, there were migrants coming from all over the world that came to inhabit there. And cultures didn't disappeared, they evolved.

We have muslims living in France since even before the country was called France and we had exchanges with the Arabs for centuries. France was even allied with the Ottoman Empire for some times. And 400 years ago, we had bloody wars all around Europa about religions, between Catholics and Protestants. And even today, we are very far away from the levels of tensions and violences between communities that were the rules at the beginning of the century (In France, we had a very famous case, called the Dreyfus Brief, that shows the level of hatred of that time).

Is there a problem with the migrants now ? Yes, indeed, a lot of them are coming to Europe. But, heck, that the price when you wish to dominate the world and colonize a vast part of it and leaves pieces of your culture in every corner of the planet. Every human hopes for a better future for himself and his family. Who are we to judge them for wanting the same thing that we have by birth? Do we deserve, personally, those conditions that we didn't work or fought for?

Those are just questions, not even rhetorical. But I'm more concerned by the fact that we are killing our planets or that a bigger part of the world production goes every year to the Capital, shrinking the part of the Work, and in the overall the crushing inequalities, rather than the problem of some migrants trying to find a better life elsewhere.

And this is not just a moral or ethic opinion. It is also a very pragmatic vision: how long a system based on those inequalities can survive ?

And for Le Pen, as said before, there is no way that she can win the Second Turn of the Election.

[Deleted]

With all due respect, I think that you don't really know what European history looks like. Since thousands of years, there were migrants coming from all over the world that came to inhabit there. And cultures didn't disappeared, they evolved.

We have muslims living in France since even before the country was called France and we had exchanges with the Arabs for centuries. France was even allied with the Ottoman Empire for some times. And 400 years ago, we had bloody wars all around Europa about religions, between Catholics and Protestants. And even today, we are very far away from the levels of tensions and violences between communities that were the rules at the beginning of the century (In France, we had a very famous case, called the Dreyfus Brief, that shows the level of hatred of that time).

Is there a problem with the migrants now ? Yes, indeed, a lot of them are coming to Europe. But, heck, that the price when you wish to dominate the world and colonize a vast part of it and leaves pieces of your culture in every corner of the planet. Every human hopes for a better future for himself and his family. Who are we to judge them for wanting the same thing that we have by birth? Do we deserve, personally, those conditions that we didn't work or fought for?

Those are just questions, not even rhetorical. But I'm more concerned by the fact that we are killing our planets or that a bigger part of the world production goes every year to the Capital, shrinking the part of the Work, and in the overall the crushing inequalities, rather than the problem of some migrants trying to find a better life elsewhere.

And this is not just a moral or ethic opinion. It is also a very pragmatic vision: how long a system based on those inequalities can survive ?

And for Le Pen, as said before, there is no way that she can win the Second Turn of the Election.

I think you replied to the wrong person, the guy I was replying to was the one afraid of islamic invasions.

[Cizr]

No, but it's the right that's pushing for authoritarian governments, and that's a much bigger threat in my eyes.

Do they want to take rights from you? Can you give some examples?

[telygroar]

she can go to the second turn i think. Whoever go against her will be elected =) its more this way.

And, thanks to trump, its more unlikely she will be elected since waves of that happening in usa do not look bright at all from the outside actually you hear less and less right winger in europe taking trump in exemple, it backlash on them actually.

[Ichifails]

Would love to see you explain why it's so obvious.

Because people are sick and tired of the shit that's going on. The reason why this is a surprise to everyone after elections is because you have a mainstream media with close 0 trust that keeps posting shit articles where they spin the story so bad that only people that already want the story to be that way agree to it. Look at WSJ trying to destroy pewdiepie(someone who I always hated because of his videos and demographic he targets, but what they did was disgusting) by spinning jokes.

You have online discussion pretty much everywhere corrected so that different points of view get deleted or banned. On MMO-champion you get banned by certain mods and Reddit changed it's entire fucking upvoting algorithm to try and keep certain subreddits off of front page... and now that it failed they made a new front page where they just made those subreddits not appear, just the ones they want. You also have reddit ignore it when people doxx others or have them fired from their jobs as long as it's in the wrong direction.

You have people that started thinking freedom of speech(not the American first amendament or w./e) means freedom of agreeing with them instead of protecting others that say what you hate the most, what disgusts you.

So many people are tired of this but you don't even hear about it at all because it gets censored everywhere so a small group of people end up living in a bubble where people want immigration, people get easily offended, those who disagree are bad or Nazi, etc.

[tankbug]

Because people are sick and tired of the shit that's going on. The reason why this is a surprise to everyone after elections is because you have a mainstream media with close 0 trust that keeps posting shit articles where they spin the story so bad that only people that already want the story to be that way agree to it. Look at WSJ trying to destroy pewdiepie(someone who I always hated because of his videos and demographic he targets, but what they did was disgusting) by spinning jokes.

You have online discussion pretty much everywhere corrected so that different points of view get deleted or banned. On MMO-champion you get banned by certain mods and Reddit changed it's entire fucking upvoting algorithm to try and keep certain subreddits off of front page... and now that it failed they made a new front page where they just made those subreddits not appear, just the ones they want. You also have reddit ignore it when people doxx others or have them fired from their jobs as long as it's in the wrong direction.

You have people that started thinking freedom of speech(not the American first amendament or w./e) means freedom of agreeing with them instead of protecting others that say what you hate the most, what disgusts you.

So many people are tired of this but you don't even hear about it at all because it gets censored everywhere so a small group of people end up living in a bubble where people want immigration, people get easily offended, those who disagree are bad or Nazi, etc.

So the majority of people are hateful, stupid racists? I guess we need a media/reddit-conspiracy to keep us from fucking ourselves over.

[Deleted]

Do they want to take rights from you? Can you give some examples?

Sure thing! In Poland Law and Justice won the recent election. They are a nationalistic, conservative far right party. So far they have passed new laws that increases the government's ability to put regular citizens under surveillence. They are changing laws to give more power to the government and less power to the court system. They are removing senior officials in media and replacing them with handpicked people friendly to the government. They have even stated that their plan is for all media to be institutes for "enforcing nationalistic culture". They are

[Estherna]

I think you replied to the wrong person, the guy I was replying to was the one afraid of islamic invasions.

And you are right, sorry for that

Because people are sick and tired of the shit that's going on. The reason why this is a surprise to everyone after elections is because you have a mainstream media with close 0 trust that keeps posting shit articles where they spin the story so bad that only people that already want the story to be that way agree to it. Look at WSJ trying to destroy pewdiepie(someone who I always hated because of his videos and demographic he targets, but what they did was disgusting) by spinning jokes.

You have online discussion pretty much everywhere corrected so that different points of view get deleted or banned. On MMO-champion you get banned by certain mods and Reddit changed it's entire fucking upvoting algorithm to try and keep certain subreddits off of front page... and now that it failed they made a new front page where they just made those subreddits not appear, just the ones they want. You also have reddit ignore it when people doxx others or have them fired from their jobs as long as it's in the wrong direction.

You have people that started thinking freedom of speech(not the American first amendament or w./e) means freedom of agreeing with them instead of protecting others that say what you hate the most, what disgusts you.

So many people are tired of this but you don't even hear about it at all because it gets censored everywhere so a small group of people end up living in a bubble where people want immigration, people get easily offended, those who disagree are bad or Nazi, etc.

The thing is that Freedom of Speech is overused to promote ideas of hatred and violence. The basis principle of a society is that every member inside lives in security and in peace. Now, can you really have one part of the said society spitting on this other one, or calling for violence against them? Isn't that something, if left unchecked, can go further and become threatening of the social peace?

I think that we shall talk about all ideas. But we have to be careful to the ones that we make public and enforce. We have to think of their consequences on the society and all it will impact its peace and the well being of its members. And, I'm quite certain of that because of History, that the ones that promotes violence against a group of the society aren't good ones.

For 2000 years, European Nations were at war with each other, hating their guts and sending countless soldiers to their deaths. Then we decided to try to work together to see. And we know the longest period of peace of our history. Somehow, I think there is something to be learn there.

[Crispin]

Because people are sick and tired of the shit that's going on. The reason why this is a surprise to everyone after elections is because you have a mainstream media with close 0 trust that keeps posting shit articles where they spin the story so bad that only people that already want the story to be that way agree to it. Look at WSJ trying to destroy pewdiepie(someone who I always hated because of his videos and demographic he targets, but what they did was disgusting) by spinning jokes.

You have online discussion pretty much everywhere corrected so that different points of view get deleted or banned. On MMO-champion you get banned by certain mods and Reddit changed it's entire fucking upvoting algorithm to try and keep certain subreddits off of front page... and now that it failed they made a new front page where they just made those subreddits not appear, just the ones they want. You also have reddit ignore it when people doxx others or have them fired from their jobs as long as it's in the wrong direction.

You have people that started thinking freedom of speech(not the American first amendament or w./e) means freedom of agreeing with them instead of protecting others that say what you hate the most, what disgusts you.

So many people are tired of this but you don't even hear about it at all because it gets censored everywhere so a small group of people end up living in a bubble where people want immigration, people get easily offended, those who disagree are bad or Nazi, etc.

What shit?

Which french news papers/channels are lying?

[Wikiy]

I feel much the same. The Britons were just coopted into the EU, but the French built it, arguably more than anyone.

Yes, and now, France is close to electing a candidate who wants to see the EU gone. And make no mistake, an EU without a France isn't much of an EU. The UK is one thing - they are a big economic plus for the Union, but France and Germany are the two pillars on which the entire thing is based.

- - - Updated - - -

Last time the FN went to the second round, it went like this :

The last time FN went for the presidency, the candidate in question was essentially a fascist-wannabe. The very reason why his daughter managed to popularize FN so much is because she reformed the party. She expelled her own father for being too extreme, that really does say enough.

- - - Updated - - -

I think it is very critical to tell the French people that Le Pen is going to be elected. Make sure they get out of their homes and go vote. Cause if all the polls keep telling them she is not, then she might actually pull through

You're right. Leftists are lazy fucks.*

*(don't infract me, I'm one myself)

[Vorkreist]

That would be great. Next the guy in Netherlands needs to win. Too bad about Hofer in Austria tho. Maybe together they can still stop madmen in EU from destroying their countries.

No it would not be great. Maybe have a read on her other "promises" as well. Le Pen winning and taking France out of the EU will destroy EU and majorly fuck ALL european countries.
Its stupidity like this that won Brexit. People with absolutely no clue of the effects leaving EU will have but only the "i hate immigrants" mantra in their head and nothing else.
If Le Pen really plans to take France out of EU in case she wins, shes the greatest threat to Europe as whole since Hitler.

[Vargulf the Happy Husky]

what does Le Pencil think of this?

[Floopa]

Le Pen a few days ago denounced same sex marriage.

Wrong move.

I'm gay and I think it's wrong too.

I hope she wins. Beautiful woman :*

[Deleted]

Le Pen a few days ago denounced same sex marriage. Wrong move.

As someone who is in favour of gay marriage herself, I think you shouldn't overestimate the impact any stance on this issue will have on election results. Is it a factor for some, especially those it concerns? Of course. But it's rarely a make-or-break matter for a candidate overall; it simply doesn't matter enough to the general population.