Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, says AI

[Kryos]

I think the fear will win, so the right wingers get votes from the xenophobic old people. Since older people (40+) are more likely to vote and are the majority in European countries, I also guess that Le Pen will win and I hate alt-right, nazis and right-wingers in general, but I'm not blind and stupid and I see and hear how the majority gets more and more scared every day and seek easy answers.

[Cizr]

No it would not be great. Maybe have a read on her other "promises" as well. Le Pen winning and taking France out of the EU will destroy EU and majorly fuck ALL european countries.
Its stupidity like this that won Brexit. People with absolutely no clue of the effects leaving EU will have but only the "i hate immigrants" mantra in their head and nothing else.
If Le Pen really plans to take France out of EU in case she wins, shes the greatest threat to Europe as whole since Hitler.

Biggest threat since Hitler ? Exaggerating much ? What about Cold War ?

France leaving EU would destroy EU ? Good. I heard same thing with UK leaving EU tho and yet nothing happened.
Europe was fine without EU. It will be fine without it.

[Deleted]

As a frenchman, i thought an election could not be messier than the US one, boi am i getting slowly proved wrong.

The more time passes the more i believe that "Time is a flat circle".
Le pen will never win, the people who vote for her do so because she represents the opposition, her policies and her "programme" is complete shit ,economy-wise.

Now, the big problem is this :
Fillon is getting DEMOLISHED by the media because of his wife, the left is DEAD, Le pen will be in the second round and Macron is getting more and more popular.
We will probably get a Macro vs Le Pen second round which looks basicly like this :
-Le Pen hates the UE, Macron is sucking its dick.
-Le Pen does not want more immigrants, Macron wants more.
If anything, this is just showing how divided the french are.

Plus i think a big part of the youth is getting more and more """" woke """" to the medias bullshit coverage of islamic terrorism.

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I think the fear will win, so the right wingers get votes from the xenophobic old people. Since older people (40+) are more likely to vote and are the majority in European countries, I also guess that Le Pen will win and I hate alt-right, nazis and right-wingers in general, but I'm not blind and stupid and I see and hear how the majority gets more and more scared every day and seek easy answers.

I mean, are we going to completely ignore that the demographic that votes for the FN the most is the 18-24 ? I know it's easier to pretend that old people being out of touch is the reason but it simply is not.

[RobertMugabe]

Not really, she will maybe win the 1st round but that's it. Only what counts is the 2nd round and there she has only a small chance to win. We had the same thing in Austria, nothing special.

[Ichifails]

The thing is that Freedom of Speech is overused to promote ideas of hatred and violence. .

The thing is that people say that usually do the same thing only in the opposite direction. However it's accepted because it's for the "right" cause. Even if it was used to promote ideas of hatred or violence, you should defend it till the moment you die or you simply can't talk about freedom of speech.

So the majority of people are hateful, stupid racists? I guess we need a media/reddit-conspiracy to keep us from fucking ourselves over.

And this is exactly what I'm talking about. Some that disagrees with you is instantly hateful, stupid racist. This is what happens when you live in a bubble.

[Sorshen]

Bigoted crazy broad that supports Trump and takes money from Putin. That's exactly what France needs, right?

[Floopa]

Bigoted crazy broad that supports Trump and takes money from Putin. That's exactly what France needs, right?

why is she a bigot?

[RobertMugabe]

I mean, are we going to completely ignore that the demographic that votes for the FN the most is the 18-24 ? I know it's easier to pretend that old people being out of touch is the reason but it simply is not.

Isn't this mainly though, because young people aren't just interested in politics and thus most of them don't go voting. That's at least the reason, why in Austria it appears that the biggest far-right supporters are young males (my demographic), though really the voter turnout is just very small.

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Bigoted crazy broad that supports Trump and takes money from Putin. That's exactly what France needs, right?

It is still a mystery to me though why pretty much all far-right parties (and their voters) in the EU are pro-Russian or pro-Putin(not just "pro", but almost like they are russian puppets). I mean Putin, generally speaking, is considered rather a leftist in Russia, he extended the rights of minorities and he even said a couple of times that Islam is more similar to orthodox christianity than catholicism is to orthodoxy, %-wise Tatars and Chechens(muslim groups) vote pretty much exclusively for him.

[Ravenblade]

Biggest threat since Hitler ? Exaggerating much ? What about Cold War ?

France leaving EU would destroy EU ? Good. I heard same thing with UK leaving EU tho and yet nothing happened.
Europe was fine without EU. It will be fine without it.

That's a common view, yes, but history-resistant one as well. The UK had an entire global empire of their own before they joined the EU, historically they never really had a deep feud with any of the continental European countries in the last two centuries. Germany and France had. Their imperial behaviour always revolved around eachother (read: beating the crap out of eachother). It took two major wars to teach both that they are better off cooperating with than annihilating eachother. France has a lot to lose, first and foremost a foundation that reaches back to the Montanunion. These days Germany and France have a too deep cooperation that both would be hit hard if one side quit. Did you know for instance that a lot people from Freiburg work in the Strasbourg region and vice versa, that infrastructure are intertwined that French and German trains commute as if there are no borders at all? Having all that gone spells anything but fine.

[Kryos]

As a frenchman, i thought an election could not be messier than the US one, boi am i getting slowly proved wrong.
The more time passes the more i believe that "Time is a flat circle".
I mean, are we going to completely ignore that the demographic that votes for the FN the most is the 18-24 ? I know it's easier to pretend that old people being out of touch is the reason but it simply is not.

I took the Trump voters. I don't mean very old people. I older like older than millennials. Middle aged to early in retirement.


Now check age distribution in France:

As you can see, the older Trump supporting share of people is now the majority in western countries.

But maybe it will be different in France. I'm skeptical.

[Deleted]

For the same reasons brexit or Trump won

Nice detailed analysis and insight there. You're totally convinced me that an actual facist will be elected in france. Really, bravo!

[Trumpcat]

Give me 3 hours to drive you around in certain parts in France. After that you will make your family and friends support Marine Le Pen.

Applicable for many European countries.

[JohnBrown1917]

I wonder if the terrorists are smart enough to know that it's not the violence they do that really hurt the country, but the right-wing reaction from their attacks that does the real damage.

Oh, Isis knows... they know.
Thats why they do it.

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That would be great. Next the guy in Netherlands needs to win. Too bad about Hofer in Austria tho. Maybe together they can still stop madmen in EU from destroying their countries.

Haha, Wilders dropped in the polls thanks to him trying to act like Trump.
Not to mention you need to do more than win to become PM.

Even Pechtold(D66), and Jesse Klaver(Greens), a 30-year old, have better chances at becoming the new PM.

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Do they want to take rights from you? Can you give some examples?

Wilders wants to get rid of our 1st amendment, freedom of religion. Which we have had since Willem van Orangje brought our country together.

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Give me 3 hours to drive you around in certain parts in France. After that you will make your family and friends support Marine Le Pen.

Applicable for many European countries.

Funny coming from somebody who does not live here.

[d00mGuArD]

Just food for thought:
How about we stop immigration and globalization before more people vote candidates that will destroy the nice things we have

[JohnBrown1917]

Just food for thought:
How about we stop immigration and globalization before more people vote candidates that will destroy the nice things we have

Because neither issues or black & white.

[PassingBy]

I feel some symphathy towards the Macron guy, since his "party" or "movement" claims to be "neither left nor right".
Someone has to stop the stupid polarization of every freaking issue and just stop, look around and start a civil discussion, while beating the shit out of radicals from both sides of the political spectrum.

Will he walk the walk though, instead of just talking the talk - that's a question.

He is, though, into fucking old ladies and that's very suspicious for a french guy.


Good thing about Le Pen is the fact that after Brexit EU needs one last push to fall apart.
France exiting EU will be that step.

And that, in turn, would give a hope for a new Union, built on saner principles and by a more limited amount of more functional countries.
No Lithuanias and Estonias, no beureaucrats in Brussels.

That'd be an interesting thing to see.

[Deleted]

I took the Trump voters. I don't mean very old people. I older like older than millennials. Middle aged to early in retirement.

Those stats about Trump voters are completely wrong.

The trend by education is true but the numbers are not like that plot.
The trend by age is always increasing (and, again, different values).
The trend by race is really different from that (e.g. black 8%).
The trend by income is actually the opposite (more income, more trump voters)

Actually the average trump voter would be a white man in his fifties with medium-high income from a small city (that last part is probably the most important factor)

ps: I guess that data is so wrong because it's from polls and with bad sample

[JohnBrown1917]

I feel some symphathy towards the Macron guy, since his "party" or "movement" claims to be "neither left nor right".
Someone has to stop the stupid polarization of every freaking issue and just stop, look around and start a civil discussion, while beating the shit out of radicals from both sides of the political spectrum.

Will he walk the walk though, instead of just talking the talk - that's a question.

He is, though, into fucking old ladies and that's very suspicious for a french guy.

Thats whats going to happen at the upcomming Dutch debate on RTL, thanks to Wilders wanting to celebrate Carnival.

Good thing about Le Pen is the fact that after Brexit EU needs one last push to fall apart.
France exiting EU will be that step.

And that, in turn, would give a hope for a new Union, built on saner principles and by a more limited amount of more functional countries.
No Lithuanias and Estonias, no beureaucrats in Brussels.

That'd be an interesting thing to see.

Le Pen is the radical you mentioned, and why keep out Estonia and Lithuania? Might as well keep out France if they really leave.

[Ravenblade]

Give me 3 hours to drive you around in certain parts in France. After that you will make your family and friends support Marine Le Pen.

Applicable for many European countries.

This is funny considering the old adage the fewer the immigrants the more rightwing the population applies in my country. My own state is one of the more sparsely populated states going by its number of immigrants living here but it is known as the bootcamp for rightwing extremists across all Europe.

[Pannonian]

This is funny considering the old adage the fewer the immigrants the more rightwing the population applies in my country. My own state is one of the more sparsely populated states going by its number of immigrants living here but it is known as the bootcamp for rightwing extremists across all Europe.

I think this is commonplace; here in Vienna we have the most immigrants/refugees but its not an easy turf for the right wingers. And yes i know they got around 30%, but that seems to be the ceiling, Hofer got so many votes because his opponent was painted as an "extremist marxist" so a lot of christian conservatives voted for the "nice face" of the right wing. That is actually something their leader (strache) cannot achieve as he's too aggressive for the conservatives, which had the nice effect that there is now a debate who should lead the party - so their biggest win (they lost) could lead to big problems for the party´.

As i watch this going on in Europe a lot, personally i think the right wing has lost their momentum in the EU because of 1.) Trump 2.) the refugee crisis is much less visible in the media than it was a year ago (though truth be told, most people never were affected in the first place)