Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Deleted]

What a load of crap same effort for third as it is 4th,5th etc...
It has taken me longer each legendary I got... crock or crap

Correct. Drop rate had dimnishing returns before, now they dont.

If anything the blue post validates all the work done by impending doom and others. It also makes things easier in the future, since now it will most likely be much easier to calculate the amount of kill points needed for next average drop and fine tune the values different activities grant. Waiting for an addon that counts KP since last legendary and shows current chance to drop

[Deleted]

The saddest thing is whatever you did when Legion launched was not part of whatever they did to promote you for a drop on later patches.

The "efficiently play" factor is the oldest thing in WoW - it was the first think that differed people in vanilla from each other. But since MoP started the orange-standard think I believe they alienated this more and more. Best patch will be the last patch of the expansion - today more than ever before.

[Tsupa]

Nice work guys. It's pretty clear that your efforts led to this change. Now we can start dialing in the exact KP needed for 3rd and on legendaries.

[Magemaer]

Nice work guys. It's pretty clear that your efforts led to this change. Now we can start dialing in the exact KP needed for 3rd and on legendaries.

Indeed. If we start running some statistics now, with a large enough data set we might get to an approximate KP for all legiondaries above 3rd. That info would be awesome.

[Deleted]

Nice work guys. It's pretty clear that your efforts led to this change. Now we can start dialing in the exact KP needed for 3rd and on legendaries.

My guess from what i had seen around, it is around 600-800 KP. (Obviously this can be completely bollocks).

[Deleted]

/thread?
1st and 2nd Legiondaries have bonuses. 3rd+ is the same chance. The tl,dr is: Play the fucking game and you'll get Legiondaries.

and Blizz just prove what I said. Useless site. As long as you dont work for Blizz and know the math behind it, the site will allways be useless.

[Deleted]

Bullshit, same like "there is no soft cap" before.

[Eyliria]

Bullshit, same like "there is no soft cap" before.

That was the biggest load of lawyer-talk bullshit I've seen them do

"There is no drop rate reduction after your 4th!"

*mountains of evidence*

"See, the thing is that we were loading up your dice up to the 4th legendary, and if you already had 4, that help went away... so the drop chances were unchanged, you just didnt get additional protection"

...

[MrExcelion]

Indeed. If we start running some statistics now, with a large enough data set we might get to an approximate KP for all legiondaries above 3rd. That info would be awesome.

Yep, that's what I was thinking. Thanks OP and everyone else

[impending doom]

The rate at which players acquire Legendary items is a subject that we’ve kept a very close eye on since the launch of Legion. We’ve generally tried to avoid getting into too much technical detail on the system behind your chance to get a Legendary, but we would like to say a bit more on what we’ve done behind-the-scenes up to this point.

As many players have figured out, changes were made to legendary drop rates with patch 7.1 and patch 7.1.5 – when those patches went live, your chance to receive a Legendary increased in pretty much all cases. What you might not have noticed is that we’ve been steadily increasing your chances since then. One of our long-term goals is to allow you to switch specific Legendary items in and out as the situation warrants, and regularly increasing drop chances is one way of ensuring that that happens.

We’ve also made adjustments that leveled off what used to be steady decrease to your chance to get subsequent Legendaries after your first. When Legion launched, every time you earned a Legendary, your starting chance to earn your next one would be lower (and thus, the average time it took you to loot it would be longer). At this stage, however, most players in the Broken Isles are no longer hunting for their first Legendary, and many already have their second. We didn’t want you to feel as though your good fortune in the past equates to harder times in the future, so we normalized drop chances for subsequent Legendaries after your second. Right now, in Patch 7.1.5, your first Legendary has the highest drop chance, the second still has a significant bonus, and then you’ll have the same chances to earn your third Legendary as you will your fourth, fifth, sixth, and so on.

We think it’s important to get this across clearly: it currently takes the same amount of luck/effort to get your third Legendary as it takes to get your eighth. We’ve seen a few players and tools attempting to use historical data to predict their drop chances, but because of how regularly we’ve been increasing Legendary drop rates, that data is extremely outdated – and their conclusions extremely inaccurate. In short, your chance of receiving that next Legendary is probably a lot better than you think.

I'm glad that they finally gave us some information about the situation, and confirmed that the diminishing returns seen in the statistics were real. Thanks to everyone who contributed in making this issue known.

So they are constantly adjusting the drop rates, making it harder to predict what are the drop chances in the future. And because of that these past statistics might be "extremely inaccurate" for predicting the CURRENT drop rates, but they WERE enough accurate to show that the diminishing returns did exist at the time of collecting this data.

So I will keep collecting new data and post more statistics in the near future to see how the drop rates look now after these recent changes. There are obviously few things that prevent me from getting 100% accurate data, but as seen now, even partial data should give us better understanding of the real drop rates than pure quessing or individual experiences.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I love how they acknowledge the community efforts. This thread in special, and the killpoints site, must have been the main reason behind this post.
Well done, boys. Well done.

Yup if anything even them being "wrong" got the answers people wanted. Victory.

[Deleted]

That new post by blizzard about the legendaries is pure bs if you ask me. Didn't they lie about the legendary system twice before? Why should we trust them now? Besides that, it's normal for them to make statements like that, especially nowadays, because they saw that their retarded legendary system is causing more and more frustration every passing day and they don't really have a solution to this shitfest, at least until 7.2.

So of course they will make a statement like this, just to keep people playing until 7.2 in which they will hopefully introduce an actual solution to this retarded rng grindfest.

[Deleted]

5th one on December 21, 6th one on January 17, 7th one on February 15. Did most pve content that could drop one in this time. Hope this helps.

[stolker]

OP, do you plan on checking new data from scratch so we can approximate droprates as they are now?

[Deleted]

same value for a m+4 or a m+20 are u sure about it?

[tankelele]

anyone got a link to check killpoints ?

[Deleted]

Or someone who has made up their mind already will refuse to see anything else.
Pretty common when someone wants to see a certain result they will dismiss anyone disagreeing with them as either lying or being an "outlier".
Pretending the exceptions don't exist is not helping prove anything.

Look what happened when we had sub numbers.
Anyone who didn't want to believe numbers could go up would either dismiss it as lies, or come up with some reason to blame the casuals.
Even if you have data, if it doesn't support what you want to see then you will find some way to dismiss it.

Typical response of "blizzard don't give me the answer I want, they are lying".

Past evidence backs me up.
The countless amount of beta stuff that went live, backs me up.

Your the one that clearly appears to be blind in this situation. Going along with dismissing those of us that know blizzard bullshit.

[meCOOL]

is the drop rate is shared with all of your chars?

i do everything with my main and when i play sometimes with alts legendary drop faster than my main

[impending doom]

OP, do you plan on checking new data from scratch so we can approximate droprates as they are now?

I've been saving data for this week too and will post some nighthold drop rates after weekly reset. But might need to start tracking more characters to get better accuracy in the future since many of these original 10k players aren't very active anymore.

[orgonutil]

def a huge buff in drop chance in last week, waited almost 3 months to get the 5th legendary and already got the 6th this week