Correcting some misconceptions about Marine Le Pen

[Deleted]

"She will not be president".
These days, that means the opposite.

No, it does not. It didn't in the Austrian election (which was far more comparable to the French one than either Brexit or the US election) - and it most likely won't mean that here either. She will get into the second round, but it is very unlikely that she will actually pull off a majority of votes there.

I just hope she wins, so we can get rid of the EU. Dont really care much for her policies.

In what EU country are you living?

[JohnBrown1917]

Why do you even try arguing with "independent voters" ? They only understand Newspeak and alternative facts

Like those 'libertarians' who support Trump?

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No, it does not. It didn't in the Austrian election (which was far more comparable to the French one than either Brexit or the US election) - and it most likely won't mean that here either. She will get into the second round, but it is very unlikely that she will actually pull off a majority of votes there.


In what EU country are you living?

Its not even that comparable to the Austrian one, she is way down in the polls compared to her Austrian counterpart(no, not that guy).

[Machismo]

Like those 'libertarians' who support Trump?

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Its not even that comparable to the Austrian one, she is way down in the polls compared to her Austrian counterpart(no, not that guy).

No real libertarian would have ever supported Trump. He would have completely undermined all of his values in order to do so.

[sarahtasher]

Ok, folks, we have several french speakers here, so I propose this.

This is the 144 electoral promises of Marine.

https://www.marine2017.fr/wp-content...ine-le-pen.pdf

Ask for what they mean, and I will try to translate (French political languague is often, how to say....abstruse) A specific one if possible, not the 144.

(As a matter of course, over three quarters of those promises are just platittudes that are not especially left or right, but always cloud-cuckoolander)

I especially love promise 93, make the French flag fly on all public buildings. Sure, Marine, Sure. It's not done already...

[Stommped]

If Frenchmen can agree on a single thing, it's that we should never let Front National and the Le Pen family be in charge of anything.

What Frenchmen are you referring to exactly? Because she is currently leading all of the polls so it appears most Frenchmen don't agree with you

[JohnBrown1917]

What Frenchmen are you referring to exactly? Because she is currently leading all of the polls so it appears most Frenchmen don't agree with you

Take a look at the 2nd round.

[Machismo]

What Frenchmen are you referring to exactly? Because she is currently leading all of the polls so it appears most Frenchmen don't agree with you

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

The polls look good for the first vote, but they look very bad for her in the second vote.

[Stommped]

Take a look at the 2nd round.

Still, if people really thought that she wouldn't have made it this far.

[Machismo]

Still, if people really thought that she wouldn't have made it this far.

Let's hope the French aren't as foolish as the Americans were.

[sarahtasher]

Still, if people really thought that she wouldn't have made it this far.

There was 10 presidential candidates last election, it's really not that hard to come first, second, or third.

[JohnBrown1917]

Still, if people really thought that she wouldn't have made it this far.

The majority still seems to be against her.

[Anon56]

Don't have the time or will to debunk your nonsense on tablet right now but your premises and numbers are wrong

What numbers ? Melanchon at 4% ? Dude please, you know as well as me it's less than 9.

unless you think it all comes from immigration or islam

Of course not, it come mostly from a political system rotten to the core and the fact you can't reform your country. France must have one of the most tedious, costly, and ineffective administration of the world. Well you're not alone, you exported you're shitty administration to half of Africa, that and steal (buy) land are the only thing you did there by the way.

My premise are false ? Who do you thing will go to second turn. Marine Lepen is almost granted but she will never be president because your system will never allow it. You can argue in your previous post about how great and nuanced is your political system, it doesn't change the fact that there are two party and everyone else are doesn't stand a chance.

Let's see who we have in this election.

Let's begin with the "don't stand a chance" list : Arthaud, Poutou, Melanchon, Dupont-Aignan, Cheminade.

Now the others.

Les republicains (right) : Fillon is almost politically dead (well, for one year, it never last very long in France but it's enough to put him out of the race). If they want to replace him you have Juppé (was politically dead but half of France must have forgotten) or Sarkozy. But if they want to replace him it will almost cause a war in the party, Fillon will fight back, maybe still run and it will divide votes. By the way this party is corrupt like hell, most of them are ex convict or linked to shady business.

En marche (left/right ? he probably don't care) : Macron, well maybe he receive eggs in the face but which politician never received some edible in the face in France ? The real problem is that he's young, probably Sarkozy 2.0 and is an opportunist. It's the kind of guy who's in politic because he can and not by ideology, he only want power.

Socialist Party (left) : Benoit Hamon. I don't know why I put him in the stand a chance list but well, maybe.

Front National (far right) : As previously said, will probably go to second turn but will never be elected. Because fear the nazis, the camps, the dark times of history, the apocalypse and so on but above all, don't destroy our fucking establishment and our 2 party system that we spend so much time to build.

The problem with France political system is that it's a being a politician is a job and you even have a school for that. Those people never did anything else and are totally disconnected from the real world.

[Deleted]

Good luck, France.

We got Donnie Do Little despite most voters voting for the other guy.

While trump is a joke, he isnt in the same league as the national front.

[Masark]

From what I understand, Marine isn't Trump in that she actually has a lot of grey matter in her head, and she isn't her daddy who went so far into the borderline-Nazi territory, the party he himself formed had to denounce him... But these two bars are so low, it is hardly an achievement.

I see no evidence that her positions are any different from her father's, only that she has enough brains to realize that shouting them from Mont Blanc isn't the path to electoral success.

[TITAN308]

3- No she won't be president.

Where have we heard those famous last words before...

[sarahtasher]

It's either the two turn presidential election or the Third Republic (99 different administrations between 1879 and 1940...)

[Deleted]

What numbers ? Melanchon at 4% ? Dude please, you know as well as me it's less than 9.



Of course not, it come mostly from a political system rotten to the core and the fact you can't reform your country. France must have one of the most tedious, costly, and ineffective administration of the world. Well you're not alone, you exported you're shitty administration to half of Africa, that and steal (buy) land are the only thing you did there by the way.

My premise are false ? Who do you thing will go to second turn. Marine Lepen is almost granted but she will never be president because your system will never allow it. You can argue in your previous post about how great and nuanced is your political system, it doesn't change the fact that there are two party and everyone else are doesn't stand a chance.

Let's see who we have in this election.

Let's begin with the "don't stand a chance" list : Arthaud, Poutou, Melanchon, Dupont-Aignan, Cheminade.

Now the others.

Les republicains (right) : Fillon is almost politically dead (well, for one year, it never last very long in France but it's enough to put him out of the race). If they want to replace him you have Juppé (was politically dead but half of France must have forgotten) or Sarkozy. But if they want to replace him it will almost cause a war in the party, Fillon will fight back, maybe still run and it will divide votes. By the way this party is corrupt like hell, most of them are ex convict or linked to shady business.

En marche (left/right ? he probably don't care) : Macron, well maybe he receive eggs in the face but which politician never received some edible in the face in France ? The real problem is that he's young, probably Sarkozy 2.0 and is an opportunist. It's the kind of guy who's in politic because he can and not by ideology, he only want power.

Socialist Party (left) : Benoit Hamon. I don't know why I put him in the stand a chance list but well, maybe.

Front National (far right) : As previously said, will probably go to second turn but will never be elected. Because fear the nazis, the camps, the dark times of history, the apocalypse and so on but above all, don't destroy our fucking establishment and our 2 party system that we spend so much time to build.

The problem with France political system is that it's a being a politician is a job and you even have a school for that. Those people never did anything else and are totally disconnected from the real world.

You detailed your previous analysis and i agree with most of what you said, except for your numbers concerning Melanchon (which i support). The path is narrow but there is no way he will be below his previous score of 11% considering his 2012 campaign was mostly underground and happened before the trahison committed by francois hollande and the socialist party. Attendance at his rallies hits record highs and the media's effort to discredit him by red scaring and unfair comparisons has become so obvious everyone is starting to question their legitimacy.
There is a lot of parallels with the way Bernie was treated by american news organizations.

I'm not saying he will be president but less than 9% is ridiculous and there has been numerous articles about the biased methodology used in polls following Hamon's victory (using "correction" of raw data based on 2012 legislative elections and refusing to give before-correction data).

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Where have we heard those famous last words before...

In Austria when people said Hofer wouldn't win and he didn't ? yup

[Acidbaron]

Where have we heard those famous last words before...

Europeans vote more on policy than americans do who vote more on personality and character. When dissecting the party plans you'll know when these people will fall short in debates, which is why people like Wilders avoids them as much as humanly possible.

So no i don't see her winning, France votes in rounds also and the first round can also be seen as a vote of disgust at the current state of things. Even if she wins she'll need political partners, good luck finding those with her type of campaign. Not to mention political suicide in allying yourself with such a party.

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No idea, tell us.
But first you need to look at the polls.

Yup Macron is ahead and that's with Fillon still being on that list, i don't see people backing Fillon being more inclined to go le pen.

[TITAN308]

No idea, tell us.
But first you need to look at the polls.

You mean like the polls in the USA that painted Trump as getting his ass handed to him?

[Acidbaron]

You mean like the polls in the USA that painted Trump as getting his ass handed to him?

Didn't Hillary win based on the popular vote, making the polls accurate?