Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Eyliria]

Ok I checked my data from the last 3 weeks to get a VERY ROUGH estimate about how many KP is needed to get the next legendary (after having at least 2):
- about 10% of characters got the next legendary within the next 300 KP after last drop (sample size 27 of 286 chars)
- about 50% of characters got the next legendary within the next 600 KP after last drop (sample size 6 of 12 chars)

So I think this sample size is really not very good to make proper estimations and the KP weights are kinda outdated too, but for what it's worth, it shows that the BLP doesn't seem to start kick in until around 300 KP (similar value was seen in earlier statistics too), and the average KP needed for the next legendary is probably between 400-800 KP.

But the KP calculations are much more complicated than just calculating avg raid boss drop rates. I'd need to track more characters, re-calculate the KP weights and improve the whole tracking process to get better short-term estimates, but I haven't had time to do that yet. And if Blizzard is going to make separate BLP counter for each spec in 7.2 like the plan is, it's going to be even much harder to track these things then.





Higher difficulty gives more KP, it's all explained in the OP, but also all the KP values are currently outdated and not accurate because the drop rates change every month.

They didnt make it clear if or how BLP will build per spec (all of them at once, vs only when loot spec is set)
Lore said he'd get back with that... but he never did.

[Faildevil]

Ok I checked my data from the last 3 weeks to get a VERY ROUGH estimate about how many KP is needed to get the next legendary (after having at least 2):
- about 10% of characters got the next legendary within the next 300 KP after last drop (sample size 27 of 286 chars)
- about 50% of characters got the next legendary within the next 600 KP after last drop (sample size 6 of 12 chars)

So I think this sample size is really not very good to make proper estimations and the KP weights are kinda outdated too, but for what it's worth, it shows that the BLP doesn't seem to start kick in until around 300 KP (similar value was seen in earlier statistics too), and the average KP needed for the next legendary is probably between 400-800 KP.

But the KP calculations are much more complicated than just calculating avg raid boss drop rates. I'd need to track more characters, re-calculate the KP weights and improve the whole tracking process to get better short-term estimates, but I haven't had time to do that yet. And if Blizzard is going to make separate BLP counter for each spec in 7.2 like the plan is, it's going to be even much harder to track these things then.





Higher difficulty gives more KP, it's all explained in the OP, but also all the KP values are currently outdated and not accurate because the drop rates change every month.

What I would find interesting: Are the KP values the same for all raid bosses on the same difficult (LFR-LFR, norm-norm, etc) or has Nighthold the higher "drop chance"?

[MrExcelion]

Question: Do you think it's worth spamming any particular level of M+ for legendaries? Or random heroics (seen one from there)? I already do all puggable levels of raids and a mythic 0 set. Is the drop chance from m+ low enough that I shouldn't ever bother really? Or do you think those 15 keys actually can give you a good shot at them? Or maybe only run them if its been awhile since your last lego? It'd be silly if random heroic spamming was better than m+s, but maybe it could be

[Vynx]

I got my 4th leg at ~1500KP, and yesterday had the 5th dropping at 1936KP, roughly 2 weeks after the previous one. Honestly, I didn't expect it that early (got a fucking sephuz though, which is shit for every druid spec).

[Svisalith]

Question: Do you think it's worth spamming any particular level of M+ for legendaries? Or random heroics (seen one from there)? I already do all puggable levels of raids and a mythic 0 set. Is the drop chance from m+ low enough that I shouldn't ever bother really? Or do you think those 15 keys actually can give you a good shot at them? Or maybe only run them if its been awhile since your last lego? It'd be silly if random heroic spamming was better than m+s, but maybe it could be

I'd guess that the highest level that you can consistently 3chest is the best one to be running for optimized legendary chance.

The only exception to that would be if you can't 3chest the higher levels AND the higher levels have a dramatically higher legendary droprate which i don't think is the case with the limited evidence that we have:

3chest = 1.5x more chests than 2chest.
3chest timer = 1.25x faster than 2chest.

So if you were in the dungeon for the entire time, the higher level 2chest would need to drop 187.5% of the legendaries that the lower level 3chest did (per chest) to be worth your time running.

In practice the difference in actual chests per hour is not quite that large but i'm not convinced that a level 15 chest would have, say, 65% more legendaries than a level 10 chest to make up this difference. Even if it did, the droprate would have to increase a lot more for it to be conclusively better instead of just equal.

[Kanael]

I can confirm that the legendary follower items DOES NOT count toward your legendary. An alt got a 15% Mission reduction time and 15 gold per world quest finished item and 4 days later the same alt got a legendary (wrist legy, its crap tho).

[Deleted]

I can confirm that the legendary follower items DOES NOT count toward your legendary. An alt got a 15% Mission reduction time and 15 gold per world quest finished item and 4 days later the same alt got a legendary (wrist legy, its crap tho).

I can confirm they don't count, but at the same time my friend got 2 legendaries (neck and ring) within 3 days

[xcess]

I can confirm that the legendary follower items DOES NOT count toward your legendary. An alt got a 15% Mission reduction time and 15 gold per world quest finished item and 4 days later the same alt got a legendary (wrist legy, its crap tho).

It just confirms youre very lucky, everything you do has a chance

[Naux]

I hate this system so much.

[impending doom]

and the second legendary how many average KP is it? At 521 atm and still nothing damn XD

I've no current data for that because most people have already at least 2, but based on earlier numbers I'd guesstimate that the 2nd legendary needs maybe around 33% less avg KP than 3rd and so on. And the first legendary maybe 33-50% less KP than the 2nd one. So something like: 250 -> 400 -> 600 KP (1st -> 2nd -> 3rd-10th). But again these numbers are based on quite limited data and there's big variation between lucky and unlucky players.

They didnt make it clear if or how BLP will build per spec (all of them at once, vs only when loot spec is set)
Lore said he'd get back with that... but he never did.

We will probably never get very clear explanation of the drop system, but they said they're making the legendary drop rates and the associated bad luck protection "much more spec specific", which sounds like making things quite complicated and people also have big concerns about how generic legendaries work with this, but hopely these plans will still change before 7.2.

What I would find interesting: Are the KP values the same for all raid bosses on the same difficult (LFR-LFR, norm-norm, etc) or has Nighthold the higher "drop chance"?

Maybe in the future I can make more specific statistics about different sources.

Question: Do you think it's worth spamming any particular level of M+ for legendaries? Or random heroics (seen one from there)? I already do all puggable levels of raids and a mythic 0 set. Is the drop chance from m+ low enough that I shouldn't ever bother really? Or do you think those 15 keys actually can give you a good shot at them? Or maybe only run them if its been awhile since your last lego? It'd be silly if random heroic spamming was better than m+s, but maybe it could be

This is something I speculated earlier too, because we don't know exactly how much each source affects the BLP, but it's one possibility that running random heroics increases your BLP faster than Mythic+, because with a static 5man group you could always kill more HC bosses compared to how many chests you can get from M+. Also for random HC you don't even need to find new keys. Would be a bit silly if it works but hard to say unless someone wants to run 1000+ random HCs and publish the statistics.

For different M+ levels the early stats from last year didn't show significant differencies, although it's hard to track M+ accurately thru armory. But I myself wouldn't run low levels just to farm legendaries, higher levels give more AP and better chances for (higher ilvl) titanforged gear too.

[Polarthief]

higher levels give better chances for titanforged gear too.

Not exactly OT with the thread, but, source? I've never seen WF/TF be more/less common in any content, ever, from WQs to Dungeons (from Heroic to M15+) to Raiding or Raid Caches from missions/weekly events.

I figured the higher base iLvl was the main benefit, not more WF/TF.

[Svisalith]

But I myself wouldn't run low levels just to farm legendaries, higher levels give more AP

Nothing above level 10 gives increased AP and my weapons are maxed despite having 6 legendaries at the moment.

Having gone back to some 7-9's and cleared some dungeons in half of the 3chest timer it seems like it'd be a waste of time legendary-wise to do stuff that you can't 3chest


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Not exactly OT with the thread, but, source?

885 +25 is a lot better than 850+25; i figured that's what was meant. Both have the same odds.

[impending doom]

Not exactly OT with the thread, but, source? I've never seen WF/TF be more/less common in any content, ever, from WQs to Dungeons (from Heroic to M15+) to Raiding or Raid Caches from missions/weekly events.

I figured the higher base iLvl was the main benefit, not more WF/TF.

Yes, to clarify what I meant is that there's better chances for higher ilvl titanforged gear.

Nothing above level 10 gives increased AP and my weapons are maxed despite having 6 legendaries at the moment.

Having gone back to some 7-9's and cleared some dungeons in half of the 3chest timer it seems like it'd be a waste of time legendary-wise to do stuff that you can't 3chest

Yeah I guess there's some sweet spot, depending which level you can reliably 3 chest and what are your goals. I think in 7.2 they're trying to make higher levels more rewarding than mass-farming easy levels.

[Deleted]

If you are looking for legendaries only yes. If you want TF 920+, you are better off 3 chesting 14-16s, which are easilly doable with todays dps/health.

[Deleted]

By the way what do you think about what happens when you drop a legendary? Is there some counter that gets reset?

I mean if I am extremely lucky and I drop my first legendary on my first dungeon, does it mean that I should wait, on average, 250KP(first legendary) + 400KP (second legendary) or does it reset?

and if I am extremely unlucky and I get my first legendary after let's say 1000KP, am I expected to get the second (and possibly the third) straight away or I need again to farm 400KP to get another one

I know all of this is just speculation but I would like to know your opinion about this (especially from the OP if he noticed anything)

[Deleted]

Just got my 6th. 753 points since #5.

[Mavett]

2 weeks since hitting 110 on DK alt, emissary every day, done the raids, tanking 2-4 heroics daily, 0 legendary drops.

According to the KP thingy i am almost done on the 2nd one, .

[Deleted]

2 weeks since hitting 110 on DK alt, emissary every day, done the raids, tanking 2-4 heroics daily, 0 legendary drops.

According to the KP thingy i am almost done on the 2nd one, .

Did you remove shared achievements?

[impending doom]

By the way what do you think about what happens when you drop a legendary? Is there some counter that gets reset?

I mean if I am extremely lucky and I drop my first legendary on my first dungeon, does it mean that I should wait, on average, 250KP(first legendary) + 400KP (second legendary) or does it reset?

Based on wordings on some of the blue posts I think the BLP counter resets after each legendary drop. Also stats seem to support that. So the total KP doesn't matter, only the KP you have gained since the last legendary drop, so for third the avg would be around 600 KP no matter how much you needed for the 1st and 2nd.

[Deleted]

Based on wordings on some of the blue posts I think the BLP counter resets after each legendary drop. Also stats seem to support that. So the total KP doesn't matter, only the KP you have gained since the last legendary drop, so for third the avg would be around 600 KP no matter how much you needed for the 1st and 2nd.

thank you