Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, calls for fresh independence referendum

[Deleted]

Germany is a sinking ship now? Stop the presses!

The euro is a sinking ship, wether it will continue to be or not idk.

The Pound however got shaken p. bad but is going to recover atleast according to every economist i've read.

[Deleted]

The Eu in the form of the Commission and the NATO Secretary General have already stated that Scotland would not get automatic membership of either organisation.

Scotland fails the economic rules for Eu membership until it gets it's own currency, central bank and reduces it;s deficit by 70%. It is guaranteed that fishing waters would be a bargaining chip. Scotland would be 0.76% of the Eu and be another debtor state they do not need. The Spanish Foreign Affairs Commission for their Congress mentions Gibraltar but not Scotland. The SNP sent their Eu affairs chap to Spain and the governing party did not even meet him, only three journalists turne dup to the SNP called "press conference" after this non-event and only one of them was Spanish lol

And good luck getting into NATO after kicking Trident out of Scotland. I'm sure Donald Trump will be delighted to green-light yet another NATO sponger, the SNP plan for the Scottish Defense "Force" was a handful of jets and a couple of destroyers. They did not even include in-air and at sea refuelling, they wanted the Royal Navy and Air Force to supply that lol

The EU commission has stated that the "Barroso Doctrine" would apply. Back in 2014 the Commission advised the Scottish Government - in writing, twice -

"the separation of one part of a Member State or the creation of a new state would not be neutral as regards the EU Treaties. A new independent state would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the EU and the Treaties would no longer apply on its territory.”

I makes perfect sense. Scotland is part of the EU because and only because it's part of the UK. If it stops being part of the UK, it stops being par tof a Member State and thus is no longe rpart of the EU.

The Uk stays orleaves as a whole. The Eu have indicated they will only dealwith the Uk as a whole. Nicola Sturgeon lovebombed Brusselslast year and got nothing other than being told "become an independent country first then sign up to join, subject to the normal process"

The Commision is "guardian of the treaties". It interprets and enforces them. They;ve already decided. Scotland coud appeal to the Euroean Court...ah, but only a Member State can do that....

It's really hilarious watching Scot Nats getting totally outraged by the idea that after independence the Eu would treat Scotland as, you know, an independent country....

[Shadowmelded]

Wasn't the commitment to hold a referndum by 2017 in early 2013?
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21148282

"If the Conservatives win the election" which wasn't a guarantee.

[Shadowmelded]

It doesn't change the spirit of the argument though. The chance to conduct the referendum was granted, the prudent action would have been to at the very least delay the referendum until after the 2015 elections (and if the conservatives won, even further after the Brexit referendum had taken place). It was an opportunist move.

It does, the EU referendum wasn't a certainty, whereas people were told in no uncertain terms by a campaign that comprised Conservatives and by the Scottish Conservative leader, that the only way to stay in the EU was to vote No. As for the "well they should have waited cause the EU ref came first" argument, the Scottish referendum was called in 2012.

[Cyberowl]

Isn't the pound still stronger than the EURO, which has been dropping at a much more significant rate than the Dollar, GBP?

I'm not sure if it's wise to attach yourself to a sinking ship just because yours just caught a little leak.

The ECB wants the euro to drop and their approach is the the main factor in the drop. The pound dropped for entirely different reasons; people were pulling their money out of the country.

[Deleted]

I assume that if they voted to leave, then the EU would gladly scoop them up, and cover the currency issue quite quickly.

but they wont.
Sturgeon has already gone to the eu on her hands & knees begging to be allowed into the eu if scotland were to leave the uk (please hurry up & go) & promptly got told no deal.

[Shadowmelded]

but they wont.
Sturgeon has already gone to the eu on her hands & knees begging to be allowed into the eu if scotland were to leave the uk (please hurry up & go) & promptly got told no deal.

The EU said Scotland would need to be independent to join. They weren't outright refused.

[Deleted]

The ECB wants the euro to drop and their approach is the the main factor in the drop. The pound dropped for entirely different reasons; people were pulling their money out of the country.

You'd have to elaborate, because as I see it, the euro is dropping because of failing eurozone states such as Portugal, Italiy, Spain and Greece.

I'm probably woefully uninformed on the subject though.

[Cyberowl]

You'd have to elaborate, because as I see it, the euro is dropping because of failing eurozone states such as Portugal, Italiy, Spain and Greece.

I'm probably woefully uninformed on the subject though.

Quantitative easing. The ECB is active devaluing the euro by buying state bonds and flooding the market with fresh euros so the debt of the countries you mentioned is devalued too. A cheap currency boosts exports too.

[Noradin]

The EU said Scotland would need to be independent to join. They weren't outright refused.

Yes, they were told they would need to be independent to have any authority to open negotiations.

- - - Updated - - -

Certainly the Scottish referendum was declared first; my question is which of the two questions is moreso dependent on the answer of the other. It makes sense to delay that one.

It was in the UK's interest to make Scotland vote first and they were the ones who got to set the date.

[Deleted]

In general you should not continue planned devaluations when making predictions about a currency. The Euro is going under a planned devaluation through the ECBs extensive quantitative easing program. Concerns over Greece or a Grexit have barely even shaken the markets in the last 3 years; it's a tiny issue in the scope of the EU.

Quantitative easing. The ECB is active devaluing the euro by buying state bonds and flooding the market with fresh euros so the debt of the countries you mentioned is devalued too. A cheap currency boosts exports too.

I can't find many links pertaining to the EU doing a planned devaluation of the euro, only some speculative articles on the subject.

Could you link me in the right direction?

[Deleted]

It's not a direct planned devaluation. But it is implicit; quantitative easing functions by the ECB (or any central bank really, this is not a unique case in the EU) buying debt to cancel it out. To buy said debt, they issue currency thus increasing the supply so the price of the currency (the exchange rate vis a vis the currency of the holders of debt) drops.

So where can I read more on this?

[Deleted]

I can't find many links pertaining to the EU doing a planned devaluation of the euro, only some speculative articles on the subject.

Could you link me in the right direction?

If progressive cutting of the European Central Banks interest rate to zero (which in the real world amounts to negative interest rates as banks charge depositors to hold their money), Maria Draghi announcing that the rate will remain "low, very low, for a long period of time" whilst extending the ECB's quantitative easing program yet again is not evidence of a deliberate devaluation strategy then I don;t know what else it would take to convince you

Of course, the euro's fatal flaw is that it has a one size fits all policy in regard of interest and exchange rates and central bank policy, but unlike almost all other currencies it has no unified state to back it.

Even federalised countries like the United States not only have a currency union, they also have a fiscal, economic and political union.

In the UK, for example, the Bank of England imposes a single rate across the entire country - but this does not matter, because any region of the UK that suffers from what might be, for them, an inappropriately high or low rate is compensated for by direct transfers of cash by the treasury from rich to poor regions. There are other such automatic stabilisers, such as welfare payments funded by a central government and treasury. Also, debt sissued by the Uk is backed by the entire Uk unconditionally.

In the USA, the federal government performs similar functions. US bonds are backed by the might of all fifty states combined. It is inconceivable that any state would be left to sink or swim on it's own

The euro is unique in that it is a currency without a state, and worse, the euro rules specifically forbid one euro country from being responsible for the debt sof another. Rather than "all stand together" it is "every man for himself".

There are no fiscal transfers because there is no over-riding European polity or identity. Peopel think of themselves as German, Polish, Greek etc first and Europeana distant second, the Germans would not tolerate their tax paying Greek welfare and so on.

[Deleted]

Google ECB quantitative easing program. You will find sources from all types of sources (I mean I could link some sources but lately I honestly don't know what people will find an acceptable source . . . )

Honestly anything official and anything you find appropriate, I have very well developed critical reading skills. I mostly just want information, preferably stuff I can cross reference.

If progressive cutting of the European Central Banks interest rate to zero (which in the real world amounts to negative interest rates as banks charge depositors to hold their money), Maria Draghi announcing that the rate will remain "low, very low, for a long period of time" whilst extending the ECB's quantitative easing program yet again is not evidence of a deliberate devaluation strategy then I don;t know what else it would take to convince you

I'm not in a need of convincing I am just trying to get informed. Thank you for the post, it's enlightening.

If I seem slow it's probably because I am quite dense, english is my third language and some stuff take time to process with me.

[Deleted]

News articles or technical articles?

News articles are OK if they are meant to be just informative, like industrial newspapers imo.

But thanks for your links, i'll have lots of fun with this.

[Rockyreg]

It does, the EU referendum wasn't a certainty, whereas people were told in no uncertain terms by a campaign that comprised Conservatives and by the Scottish Conservative leader, that the only way to stay in the EU was to vote No. As for the "well they should have waited cause the EU ref came first" argument, the Scottish referendum was called in 2012.

Yet it was considered enough of a threat that the SNP included it in their precious white

http://www.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

(Page 60)

[klogaroth]

I don't think a second referendum is an unreasonable request. The situation has shifted in a major way from the last referendum, enough that it warrants asking the question. Note as well - getting a referendum isn't outright saying "Scotland will definitely leave the UK". It's asking Scottish people if they would like to leave the UK, given the change in circumstances, or if they'd prefer to remain.

After all, for everyone that thinks a Scotland leave vote is a sure thing, votes have had a habit of going against the odds recently. It would be better to ask, rather than assume.

[Shadowmelded]

Yet it was considered enough of a threat that the SNP included it in their precious white

http://www.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

(Page 60)

And the "Serious possibility" of one happening isn't the same as the claim being made, which was that Scotland knew an EU ref was going to happen.

[Rockyreg]

And the "Serious possibility" of one happening isn't the same as the claim being made, which was that Scotland knew an EU ref was going to happen.

Being that it was put down in the white paper to try and convince people to vote for independence negates the argument. People voted to remain in the U.K. knowing (in fact being notified in explicit terms) that the UK could vote to leave the EU

[rogueMatthias]

I don't think a second referendum is an unreasonable request.

Honestly, I think it's highly irresponsible for anyone in power to even consider it at the moment.
People are throwing around "EU or UK" as if an independent Scotland will just wave the UK goodbye and carry on exactly the way things are now instead. This is grossly and stupidly ignorant. Scotland would have to renegotiate everything from the ground up with NO NEGOTIATING POWER AT ALL. What do they bring to the table for the EU? Even its fishing industry would likely be heavily capped, much like Ukraine's chicken farming in its trade deals with the EU.

It took 12 years between the UKs first application until it was finally an EU member. It could easily take 5+ or more years for Scotland to enter (after however many years it takes to finalise leaving the UK) - and that's assuming that no country will veto it for its own trade interests. (even the UK was vetoed twice). Who knows what the EU is going to look like by then - they will certainly have had to cope with the loss of countries from the Eurozone, as well as increasing rises in populist right-wing parties across Europe.

We haven't even finalised our Brexit plan - Sure, once Britain has left the EU, once all the deals are in place, when we have a clear idea of what a post-Brexit Britain and EU are going to look like for the next decade, then by all means have another referendum. There's WAY too much up in the air at the moment; an independent Scotland could easily be left up shit creek without a paddle. This is 100% putting nationalism before the welfare of the people.