Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, calls for fresh independence referendum

[Rockyreg]

yeah, its when the people vote, and not 2500 Tory party members.

I didn't realise the UK has Prime Ministerial Elections

[caervek]

yeah, its when the people vote

Indeed however they vote for a party and the party with the most seats (or if there is none a coalition of parties) form the government, and the part leader becomes the PM. Neither May nor Sturgeon were elected, no prime/first minister ever has been (which is what makes her comment so comical).

[Deleted]

Indeed however they vote for a party and the party with the most seats (or if there is none a coalition of parties) form the government,

But not in proportion to the votes cast...

and the part leader becomes the PM. Neither May nor Sturgeon were elected, no prime/first minister ever has been (which is what makes her comment so comical).

What she meant was that she hasn't led her party in a GE, she was appointed by the Tory party to be in charge, not the voters (regardless of the fact that they empowered the Tory to be in charge).

[caervek]

What she meant was that she hasn't led her party in a GE

You're making an assumption there but even if right it doesn't matter, the Tory's would still have won a majority in 2015 with May leading.

[Pann]

You're making an assumption there but even if right it doesn't matter, the Tory's would still have won a majority in 2015 with May leading.

There is no way to know if that would have happened. It was expected, at the time, that there would not be an overall majority so I am not so sure that May would have delivered one. I suspect that the Tories with May at the helm will win the next GE but mainly because there is no real alternative.

[caervek]

It was expected, at the time, that there would not be an overall majority so I am not so sure that May would have delivered one.

It was anticipated by most people interested in politics that the Tories would do better than in 2010 and that Labour/Libdems would do worse. Anyone who didn't expect that to result in a Tory majority government (or at the very least a coalition free tory minority government) was delusional.

It was the only logical outcome, after the way Sturgeon sabotaged Miliband* he had no hope of even equaling Browns performance, and after so many stupid Lib Dem voters jumped ship because they felt their party had betrayed them by spending five years as a human shield protecting them from the Tories. That equals an increase in Tory seats and a reduction in Labour/LD seats, the math wasn't hard, yet as you say it caught some people by surprise.

*And look who's benefitting from that now, she's even using the fact the Tories look to be in power for a long time as ammo to support another referendum lol.

[Pann]

It was anticipated by most people interested in politics that the Tories would do better than in 2010 and that Labour/Libdems would do worse. Anyone who didn't expect that to result in a Tory majority government (or at the very least a coalition free tory minority government) was delusional.

It was the only logical outcome, after the way Sturgeon sabotaged Miliband* he had no hope of even equaling Browns performance, and after so many stupid Lib Dem voters jumped ship because they felt their party had betrayed them by spending five years as a human shield protecting them from the Tories. That equals an increase in Tory seats and a reduction in Labour/LD seats, the math wasn't hard, yet as you say it caught some people by surprise.

*And look who's benefitting from that now, she's even using the fact the Tories look to be in power for a long time as ammo to support another referendum lol.

It was not anticipated by most people interested in politics, every (publicly available) poll prior to the exit polls being released suggested that there would be no overall majority. Although hindsight is a wonderful thing nothing you've written proves that May would have delivered a Tory majority. To be honest it was pointless thing to say as it cannot be proved.

[caervek]

It was not anticipated by most people interested in politics

Odd because I saw it coming and I remember when posting about it on forums at the time most other people did too (people who read the Sun are not people interested in politics).

every (publicly available) poll prior to the exit polls being released suggested that there would be no overall majority

There's always been a lot of idiots in the UK sadly

nothing you've written proves that May would have delivered a Tory majority

I thought I had explained it well but to be blunt, any competent leader could have delivered a Tory majority in 2015 because it wasn't caused by additional support for the Tories, it was caused by a rejection of Miliband/Sturgeon and a surge of voters picking the Tories out of fear of a Labour/SNP coalition.

[Pann]

Odd because I saw it coming and I remember when posting about it on forums at the time most other people did too (people who read the Sun are not people interested in politics).



There's always been a lot of idiots in the UK sadly



I thought I had explained it well but to be blunt, any competent leader could have delivered a Tory majority in 2015 because it wasn't caused by additional support for the Tories, it was caused by a rejection of Miliband/Sturgeon and a surge of voters picking the Tories out of fear of a Labour/SNP coalition.

Well done you got the result correct where every bit bit of publicly available data suggested another outcome. This would suggest a lucky guess rather than any sort of insight.

What does the amount of idiots in the UK have to do with polls?

You have no way of knowing any of this. However Labour's share of the vote increased by 1.5% however they lost 26 seats (mostly in Scotland) which were picked by SNP and the majority of Tory gains due to the collapse of the Lib Dems.

[Deleted]

Well done you got the result correct where every bit bit of publicly available data suggested another outcome. This would suggest a lucky guess rather than any sort of insight.

Nah, they very accurately predicted the mighty 12 seat majority.

[Deleted]

We are allowed self determination but you aren't. Nur nur nur nur nur nur.

[Kallisto]

Didn't they already vote? How many votes is enough?

They did but one of the main reasons for the no was the simple line by the anti independence groups (Which included the Prime Minister of the time, leader of the opposition and Lib Dem leadership) was "To guarantee remaining in the EU you have to vote no to independence." which was a reason why many who would have voted yes to independence voted no.

The independence camp always said "Once in a lifetime." but they always followed it up with "As long as major constitutional position of the UK remained the same." . Which means with Brexit happening not only has Scotland essentially been lied to with the guarantee to remain in the EU, the constitutional position of the UK right now is completely up in the air and going to change.

The status of which the vote was taken is gone, we're in a new situation so for many a new vote is warranted. This is coming from someone that thinks Scotland would be stupid to vote for independence.

[Rockyreg]

They did but one of the main reasons for the no was the simple line by the anti independence groups (Which included the Prime Minister of the time, leader of the opposition and Lib Dem leadership) was "To guarantee remaining in the EU you have to vote no to independence." which was a reason why many who would have voted yes to independence voted no.

The independence camp always said "Once in a lifetime." but they always followed it up with "As long as major constitutional position of the UK remained the same." . Which means with Brexit happening not only has Scotland essentially been lied to with the guarantee to remain in the EU, the constitutional position of the UK right now is completely up in the air and going to change.

The status of which the vote was taken is gone, we're in a new situation so for many a new vote is warranted. This is coming from someone that thinks Scotland would be stupid to vote for independence.

But as I've said before the SNP acknowledged in their own 2014 White Paper that their could be an EU Referendum which said '' raises the serious possibility that Scotland will be forced to leave the EU against the wishes of the people of Scotland''

Therefore it must be viewed that the Scottish voted No with the knowledge that leaving the EU was 'a serious possibility'.

I've got no problem with the Scots holding another referendum but only when the time is right, and I don't believe the timetable set out by Sturgeon is right for the Scottish people to make an informed choice. I don't blame Sturgeon for going for it as due to the SNP's woeful handling of the devolved areas of government over the last 10 years she may never get anywhere another majority at the next election, so if she misses this chance it could be a long time until she gets another.

[Deleted]

I agree with May, having an Independence Referendum now is irresponsible. Having a referendum after BREXIT is better for Scotland because then we may know more about the state of post-BREXIT and whether it's better for Scotland to go alone or not.

[Mayhem]

But as I've said before the SNP acknowledged in their own 2014 White Paper that their could be an EU Referendum which said '' raises the serious possibility that Scotland will be forced to leave the EU against the wishes of the people of Scotland''

Therefore it must be viewed that the Scottish voted No with the knowledge that leaving the EU was 'a serious possibility'.

I've got no problem with the Scots holding another referendum but only when the time is right, and I don't believe the timetable set out by Sturgeon is right for the Scottish people to make an informed choice. I don't blame Sturgeon for going for it as due to the SNP's woeful handling of the devolved areas of government over the last 10 years she may never get anywhere another majority at the next election, so if she misses this chance it could be a long time until she gets another.

I like how you want to make everyone believe that certainty is the very same thing as possibility.

[Rockyreg]

So because they covered one of many negative outcomes for Scotland, in a theoretical sense, that means that every Scottish voter not only read a literal economic book, but also took time to ponder the possibility of a rogue Brexit vote coming out of nowhere?

Nah, lets not Rockyreg, you can find some other line of argument for why theres not a clear mandate. This isnt one of them.

There is no mandate. SNP needs the Greens support (which they have bribed out of them for favours with the budget). In the Greens 2016 manifesto they saud they would only support another referendum if 'it should come about by the will of the people'

Are you honestly telling me you think the scots currently support a referendum according to Sturgeons timetable?

[Pua]

You haven't proved anyone wrong, you've stated why you think the GERS info is rubbish but you haven't provided any credible alternative analysis. Their analysis gives us an idea of what Scotland's economic position would be on day 1 of independence.

Fuck me, so you are actually using data that not only is from 2013, but using GERS as its source, you know the source that you are attempting to discredit.

This, dear boys, is exactly the point; exactly. Because GERS data is essentially pointless when discussing an independent Scotland, you either accept that or you accept the other conclusions it draws.

So, Scotland is either a net contributor to the UK but now, somehow, runs a deficit worse than Greece... Or both of these conclusions are bunk because the data is bunk. And because every serious economist (even those on the right of the spectrum who are aggressive toward independent, such as Merryn Somerset-Webb) essentially agrees that you can't assess Scottish independence via GERS, everything you've said is inherently flawed.

So why did you reference the block grant when I just asked you to acknowledge that an independent Scotland would have to make tough choices on taxation and spending

Whoa, why are you changing the goalposts?

You asked me if an independent Scotland would get the block grant. I said, no - obviously not. That's hardly me saying Scotland wouldn't "have to make tough choices on taxation and spending", I simply listed (in an earlier post) the many options available to an independent Scotland. I'd personally start with putting up corporation tax and properly allocating people to clamping down on its avoidance, but there are so many options open to a country that controls its own economy.

Like Scotland currently doesn't.

Who's this guy?

The individual who created GERS when he was Secretary for Scotland (Conservative).

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this. My argument is simply more people voted, therefore more people cared about that referendum in my opinion giving greater weight to the numbers voting.

Tell me which electoral analysis, from anywhere in the world, works on exact numbers when describing swings or majorities.

I could just as easily suggest that people didn't vote due to democratic exhaustion (independence referendum, General Election, Scottish parliamentary elections, EU referendum), complacency about the result (Scotland is clearly pro-EU) or, as you suggest, less general interest.

The difference is that I believe it's silly to just attribute voters that didn't vote. It's entirely arbitrary. I could suggest that we just apply current percentages to those that didn't vote and call it a good one. The difference in the number of voters was 943,831, and 62% of that would be another 585,175 votes on top of Remain; thus, bringing the total to 2,246,366... And, therefore, higher than the 2,001,926 that voted No.

But that'd be intellectually dishonest, and not necessarily a fair reflection of how those people would have voted.

I did:

https://www.commonspace.scot/article...tlands-economy

Shes quite happy to damn the Scottish Government using these GERS figures.

Eh?

The first paragraph:

"This note gives a brief summary of what was produced in these papers, followed by a criticism of the quality of the data and a fairly damning indictment of what is fed to the public".

So, she's saying what I've said all along she's been saying... That GERS data is hopelessly flawed, no matter who tries to use it. Thanks for linking an agreement from one of the two foremost experts on GERS (the other being her husband).

[Valerean]

May will kick this into the long grass, Brexit will happen, the Tories will win 2020 with a serious majority, and the Scots will vote to stay part of the Union like they did last time.

There is even less incentive for independence now than there was the last time the question was asked.

Then maybe the SNP can actually focus on governing Scotland responsibly rather than howling for referendums whenever their countrymen give them an answer they don't like.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mayhem]

I agree with May, having an Independence Referendum now is irresponsible. Having a referendum after BREXIT is better for Scotland because then we may know more about the state of post-BREXIT and whether it's better for Scotland to go alone or not.

That argument goes both ways though.

[Rockyreg]

I like how you want to make everyone believe that certainty is the very same thing as possibility.

Where did I do that?