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  1. #721
    Well, that was a pleasant night result. I'd say it's the best we've seen in a while. I just woke up from a nap so I will post something more in-depth in a little while.

  2. #722
    Quote Originally Posted by Marack View Post
    Why would I use anything on Bomber? I havent played any games with him so I tossed him into the new/returning player. He deserves
    So the last item you used was in #185. You had 34 posts after that, so you are saying you didn't receive a single item after that?
    Well it's definitely a possibility, since it seems to be pretty random but I'm not entirely sure I believe it.

  3. #723
    Stood in the Fire Bombercloner's Avatar
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    Graeham, can you confirm two bananas were used on you?

  4. #724
    Quote Originally Posted by dupti View Post
    Vote Catta

    Please explain why you used a pow box that close to the deadline.

    Also it seems like two players tried to get Bombercloner modkilled. He went from 10 posts in #646 to only being at 1 at the end of the day (#700).
    Which means he lost 9 posts. 5 of them obviously came from the pow box, but that still leaves us with -4.
    Seeing as there is no item that reduces someones post count with 4, it means that two items were used (-3 and -1).
    Possible it came from the same player but seems a bit unlikely, most likely came from two different players.

    Assuming town weren't dumb enough to use post reducing items near the end of the day, this most likely means it came from scum.
    So for now I think it's fair to conclude scum tried to get Bombercloner modkilled. That does not necessarily mean Bombercloner is town though.

    First of all it is possible we have several scum teams, but it is also possible that scum did not expect town do use post reducing items, in which case they could push a scumpartner close to a modkill just to make him look better.
    I think it's fairly unlikely, especially day 1, but as the game goes on it is very important you don't clear someone just because they almost ended up getting modkilled, it's just going to be WIFOM.
    I concur on your analysis here.
    Here is my own data/thinking about this.

    Data Column 1 is the post record at #646. This happened prior to the PoW block
    Data Column 2 is number of real posts posted between #646 and #700.
    Data Column 3 is what we should expect the dusk vote record to be.
    Data Coumn 4 is the actual post record at #700.
    And Data Column 5 is the difference betwee what it should be, and what it is. Essentially, this is the result of items.

    @#646 posted expected @#700 diff
    Listo95 - 112 6 118 113 -5
    Catta - 69 10 79 79 0
    Crissi - 64 1 65 60 -5
    Graeham - 53 53 47 -6 (!)
    Marack - 52 52 47 -5
    Dupti - 49 18 67 62 -5
    Crackleslap - 46 46 41 -5
    Largehorn - 45 1 46 40 -6 (!)
    PalawinFC - 39 39 34 -5
    Virothe - 32 7 39 34 -5
    Reticence - 24 4 28 23 -5
    Xanjori - 15 15 10 -5
    Danner - 13 2 15 10 -5
    Bombercloner - 10 10 1 -9 (!!)
    Monkz - 10 10 8 -2 (!)

    Assuming I did no mistakes here, Catta used the PoW indeed.
    And I agree with you that someone seriously tried to kill Bombercloner between #646 and #700.
    And for this to be an orchestrated effort to murder Bombercloner through a negative post count... Catta had to be in on it.

    So I will join you in this vote!

    vote: Catta

    @Bombercloner: Dupti lays out a theory of two shells and a PoW hitting you at the end of the day. Are you able to confirm that this is what happened?
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  5. #725
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    ok so made a list of posts made between #646 and 700 and last item publicly used:

    Listo - 7 posts , Mushroom (on 1st of the posts)
    Catta - 10 posts - Bullet Bill used on #418
    Crissi - 1 - Banana Peel used on #509
    Graeham - 0 - used mushroom on #356
    Marack - 0 - used banana peel on #185
    Dupti - 22 - couldn't find anything listed
    crackle - 0 - used Gold Mushroom on #386
    large - 1 - couldnt find anything listed
    Pala - 0 - used banana peel on #579
    Virothe - 7 - used banana peel on first of those posts
    Ret - 4 - used green shell on #618
    Danner - 2 - used mushroom on #257
    Bomb - 0 - couldnt find anything listed
    Monkz - 3 - couldnt find anything listed
    Xanjori - 0 - used red shell on #83

  6. #726
    Quote Originally Posted by dupti View Post
    Why did you not use it in the game thread?
    Because the shrooms get auto used...

  7. #727
    Quote Originally Posted by Catta View Post
    Because the shrooms get auto used...
    I see.

    Anyway, I don't believe you.

  8. #728
    Meh, pretty straightforward day it seems.

    Vote: Catta

    Good catch Dupti.

  9. #729
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    and now that I got my list out of the way, if I was gonna point fingers at statistical improbabilities of not getting an item with how many posts they had, I'd point at dupti, Catta, and Virothe. Listo too if he weren't dead and knew he was dead at that point.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also its a straight forward day, but I wouldn't end it early.

    If you have an item after the night ends still you carry it over into today. ~ Kryllian

    If any scum kept their items, they could pretty easily kill the people that haven't shown up, or would have low posts.

  10. #730
    The players who used the items on Bomber most likely already had the items before the end of day. Seems unlikely that scum just so happened to post and get post reducing items at that point.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Agreed, we are never going to end a day early.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Throw banana peel at Catta

  11. #731
    Blademaster Kryllian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dupti View Post

    Throw banana peel at Catta
    Catta lost one post

  12. #732
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    Need to go lay down now but I had to get those thoughts and list out first before I forgot.

  13. #733
    Quote Originally Posted by Monkz View Post
    Meh, pretty straightforward day it seems.

    Vote: Catta

    Good catch Dupti.
    Yes, "catch".

    I mean, there isn't anything else I can do to defend myself. I've said what happened to me.

    Considering all it takes for the scum to completely blend in is either getting a Fake Box or have a teammate throw a red shell at them I think you should look at the people on my train after my lynch. I don't think dupti would be blatant enough as scum to be the one pointing it out. Monkz on the other hand would probably happily tag along at first opportunity - for one you can see his post count would line up with having a green shell thrown at him.

  14. #734
    Stood in the Fire Bombercloner's Avatar
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    @Danner

    I had 7 posts (7)
    I found mushroom +3 (10)
    POW -5 (5)
    Green Shell -3 (2)
    Banana -1 (1)
    Night begins
    Banana -1 (0)

  15. #735
    @Bombercloner: That is super interesting.
    It means there was not a concentrated effort to murder you PRIOR to the night.
    That banana in the night night still counts as a murder attempt if you ask me though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Possibly there was a concentrated effort to do so using future items. Ie, use what they had, then try to get more.
    The main suspects for this would be the ones posting a lot between #646 and #700

    - - - Updated - - -

    That means: Dupti (18), Catta(10), Virothe(7), Listo(6), Reticence(4).

    Listo obviously wasn't it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am willing to give Dupti a pass here since he raised the theory first - so it means Catta and Virothe, essentially.
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  16. #736
    Stood in the Fire Bombercloner's Avatar
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    "Factional communication: During the night phase only you may talk with your partners"

    From PalawinFC role card. I wonder if scum are allowed to use QT for items during the day phase

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Danner View Post

    That means: Dupti (18), Catta(10), Virothe(7), Listo(6), Reticence(4).
    can you elaborate on what this means

  17. #737
    @Bombercloner: Ah, form my data. To find the PoW user, I spent the night counting posts between #646 and #700.
    That are the 5 top posters. Full data you can see in #724.
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  18. #738
    Quote Originally Posted by Bombercloner View Post
    Graeham, can you confirm two bananas were used on you?
    Yep. Marack and I got into a brief discussion yesterday over him using his negative items on me. That said, I'm not terribly worried since I tend to post a lot anyway which makes up for it.

    Consider my vote on Catta for today. We're in a good position, I think, so if it turns out to be a false lead then we'll still be down two scum.

  19. #739
    Stood in the Fire Bombercloner's Avatar
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    Any data junkies have a list of which players have used how many items publicly?

  20. #740
    Player Vote Record @646 My count, posts 646-700 Expected Vote Record @700 Vote Record @700 diff last two colums
    Listo 112 6 118 113 -5
    Catta 69 10 79 79 0
    Crissi 64 1 65 60 -5
    Graeham 53 53 47 -6 (!)
    Marack 52 52 47 -5
    Dupti 49 18 67 62 -5
    Crackleslap 46 46 41 -5
    Largehorn 45 1 46 40 -6 (!)
    PalawinFC 39 39 34 -5
    Virothe 32 7 39 34 -5
    Reticence 24 4 28 23 -5
    Xanjori 15 15 10 -5
    Danner 13 2 15 10 -5
    Bombercloner 10 10 1 -9 (!!)
    Monkz 10 10 8 -2 (!)

    I figured I would format this table for the forum as well. Enjoy.

    @Bombercloner:

    My track of that from D1:

    Marack throws Banana Peel at Graeham
    Xanjori throws Red Shell at Crackleslap
    Graeham use Mushroom
    Listo throws a Boo at Catta -> Stole Blue Shell
    Listo throws BLue Shell at Listo
    Crissi throws Green shell at Danner
    Listo use Mushroom
    Virothe uses Star Power, hits Catta, Crackle & Marack
    Catta throws Red Shell at Danner
    Listo throws Green Shell at Virothe
    Catta throws Green Shell at Listo
    Marack throws Banana Peel at Graeham
    Graeham use Golden Mushroom
    Virothe throws Banana Peel at Listo
    Catta throws Green Shell at Xanjori
    Catta eats Gold Mushroom
    Listo throws a red shell at Crissi
    Listo use Mushroom
    Catta use Mushroom
    Graeham throws BLue Shell at Listo
    Danner eats Mushroom
    Crissi use Bullet Bill, hits Catta, Crackle and Listo
    Graeham use Mushroom
    Reticence throws Banana Peel at Crackleslap
    Crackleslap use Gold Mushroom
    Listo use Gold Mushroom
    Listo use Gold Mushroom
    Catta use Bullet Bill, hits Largehorn, Graeham, and Crackleslap
    Reticence Throws Green shell at PalawinFC
    Listo use Bullet Bill
    Virothe use Banana Peel at Listo

    - - - Updated - - -

    That list tracks only confirmed items.
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