Originally Posted by
Skroe
Will Americans leave? Will not at first, but skilled Americans eventually will. And if you think about it this makes absolutely a ton of sense. Highly skilled foreigners come to the US because of economic opportunity and a better life. There is no reason Americans themselves will not be immune to that should, in time, other countries offer better deals. The CERN experience keenly illustrates that which is why I brought it up. With the shut down of Tevatron as well, US-based physics has some specialized particle accelerators (usually at high risk of getting shut down), or otherwise forwards work to the LHC and gets back the results. But in the 20 years since the end of the SCSC, many American physicists relocated to Europe and as I recall reading, more and more American undergraduate and graduate physics students are foreign born.
Within my own field, America does well in Robotics, but the gulf has narrowed and Japan and South Korea have peer-level programs. The thing about Robotics is that it's extremely expensive to build these things. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. We need a lot of money to do our work - from industry and government.
The company I work for gets a lot of money from the Federal government, but because of Trump's election, then the Muslim ban, it's frozen seeking money for new Federal projects. Simply put, it's terrified about losing talent. People in my industry get poached all the time, and Chinese robotics research firms are making hard plays for the best researchers they can get. All that stuff we read on the internet about Robots one day putting Americans out of work? The Chinese Government is making damn well sure those robots are going to be built in a factory on the Chinese coast. To do that they need good people, and they are getting good people.
Previously what kept people in the US is our openness, hospitality, opportunities and reputation. This is a place that young foreign scientists in their 20s and 30s want to start families and maybe one day bring their parents over to live here. Trump is doing WONDERS to wreck that reputation. And without it... give people enough money, and they will leave.
Me? Personally I have very strong nationalistic feelings about science that I know aren't great for a scientist to have. But I'm mostly kept here by family. But to be realistic, if my parents are gone in the 20 years, I'd probably go to wherever pays me the best.
The moronic Trumpkins who whine about "globalism" simply do not get that there is no undo the fact that we live in a global economy, that our wealth is based of global industries and our opportunities are global in nature. There is no winding back the clock to 1885 localism or working in the plant like pap in the 1950s. The world changed, and so must we.
No one I know has left my company yet, but I know that a few are considering it, and probably will, on the projects I work on or near, sometime this year. And, with my company on the market for a buyer, there is always the risk of Nissan or Toyota buying us and moving us all to Asia wholesale. Would I follow? Again... for the right money yes.
American Trumpkins need only look at the World War II European brain drain. Pre-War, most of best scientists in the world were European. Post War, most of them made new lives for themselves in the US and never went back. Europe never caught up in many fields, and when they did, it was because the US squandered an advantage.
That is already happening to us now because of things the US has or has neglected to do the last decade. And that will get worse in years ahead. Either this country has do something about it or be prepared to lose everything. And I do mean everything. What is the United States without its technological superiority, financial market dominance and military superiority (also ebbing away, again due to tech investments by China)? A country in the 20s and 30s on every metric, not big enough to have India's problems... not small enough to have Germany's efficiencies. In other words continent spanning mediocrity and decline.