Brexit - Art 50 on Mar 29th

[Tinch]

Basically this. It was the very definition of feelings over logic and politicians who lied their ass's off to get it approved. This will easily put the UK into a recession for a pretty long period of time.

Is there a single credible economic forecast that is predicting the UK will fall into recession?

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[Acidbaron]

I read somewhere that to complete it all under 2 years the UK needs to re-negotiate over 100 deals per day. That doesn't seem really possible going out that good deals take time.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Is there a single credible economic forecast that is predicting the UK will fall into recession?

depends on your definition of credible, most people these days seem to think that any forecast disagreeing with what they think will happen is either biased or a joke

[Tinch]

depends on your definition of credible, most people these days seem to think that any forecast disagreeing with what they think will happen is either biased or a joke

Well, any forecast then. Even before the referendum the worst I saw was a significant slowing of the economy, but not a recession.

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[Deleted]

Basically, Brexit will cost the British around 60 billion, give or take a few depending on who calculates it.

That's more accurately the last bill of the EU, not a price of brexit per se.

[Acidbaron]

Well, any forecast then. Even before the referendum the worst I saw was a significant slowing of the economy, but not a recession.

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A lot of it depends on the outcome following the next two years, UK's best bet is to broker deals away from the EU and on nation to nation basis but a lot of EU nations are forming a block, however the EU and UK benefit both from their trade so there's a mutual interest so that deals end up well.

However as i laid out the number of deals to be brokered on a daily basis is going to of such a staggering amount, and the EU has said that they are ready and prepared for it. The question is, is the UK also ready for it? Knowing that those left in charge of an almost interim government, where key players are not know for that.

But i'm fairly confident there will be an economic downturn for most involved how much and for who is hard to say since those forecasts are based on several assumptions and is very different per sector also.

The big negative comes from the money the UK is in debt from breaking out of certain deals made while within the EU, something they can't simply ignore for obvious reasons.

[Rockyreg]

A lot of it depends on the outcome following the next two years, UK's best bet is to broker deals away from the EU and on nation to nation basis but a lot of EU nations are forming a block, however the EU and UK benefit both from their trade so there's a mutual interest so that deals end up well.

However as i laid out the number of deals to be brokered on a daily basis is going to of such a staggering amount, and the EU has said that they are ready and prepared for it. The question is, is the UK also ready for it? Knowing that those left in charge of an almost interim government, where key players are not know for that.

But i'm fairly confident there will be an economic downturn for most involved how much and for who is hard to say since those forecasts are based on several assumptions and is very different per sector also.

The big negative comes from the money the UK is in debt from breaking out of certain deals made while within the EU, something they can't simply ignore for obvious reasons.

I would think the most prudent thing for both sides would be to come to an early agreement on having a transitional period. I think this would relieve the huge time pressure considerably and perhaps the talks would become less fractious.

Having said that, I do not feel that by slapping a big bill down first up and saying 'pay that' to the UK government is getting the proceedings off to a great start.

[Kryos]

So March 29th 2019 - the day the ignorant pro-Brexit voters will finally see the big mistake they created when the Brexit is finally reality. People like that only learn when they suffer directly. They deserve all the problems and really need to face the hard consequences for their stupid short sighted vote.

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Some of you guys really ought to be getting ready for the march in a few days time, it won't go unnoticed if the goosestepping isn't perfect. Don't forget the mantra it's posted here.

http://www.marchforgermany.eu/

Repeat after dinner every day the core values from the above.

MARCH FOR GERMANY!
For those who believe in a strong, united and democratic Germany, it is time to stand up.

I'm from Germany and I think marching is something Germany shouldn't do so much anymore...

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Democracy ... the worst system of government there is except for every other system.
Until 2017 that is.... right now China is doing better for its people than the democratic countries.

Not really.
China has some booming industries but the majority of the people is not so lucky.
Increased inequality with Urban poverty, Rural-urban divide, Unequal educational opportunity and their land policy and corruption are not good.
It's a 1-party dictatorship and just because they use some capitalism doesn't change their basic problems.

If you answer: "But they lifted so many people out of poverty! Read the 2013 report!" then you fell for propaganda.
If you factor in population growth, you can make the claim that China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty if you define poverty as living on less than $1.90 or $3.10 a day. This doesn’t say anything about how well those lifted out of poverty are doing. A rural household living on $1.91 a day by this standard wouldn’t be counted as suffering from extreme poverty, even though by any objective measure a household earning that much on an annual basis would be cripplingly poor. Urban households’ per capita income was 29,831 yuan – almost $4,500 a year. Rural households have a per capita income of only 9,892 yuan – about $4 dollars a day.

[Heathy]

its funny, lots of ppl were pissed that for example, the politicians in the eu weren't elected, but they were, by the mps you voted for.

they also said that leaving would free up more money for the nhs, that turned out to be bullshit.

in the end we ended up with more unelected ppl in power, who voted for may to be PM, i didn't.

i never vote but i did vote to remain, it was the safer option, putting aside any personal bias against cameron. i think some ppl went into this and saw two boxes. leave and fuck cameron or remain. obviously saying fuck you to the pm was more important than keeping the common market, that took a long time to become a part of.

god only knows why wales voted to leave, surrounded by morons who don't know where the money is coming from.. hint its not Westminster.

[Kryos]

i never vote but i did vote to remain, it was the safer option, putting aside any personal bias against cameron. i think some ppl went into this and saw two boxes. leave and fuck cameron. obviously saying fuck you to the pm was more important than keeping the common market, that took a long time to become a part of.

And when Britain wants to come back in let's say 6 years, they will get a way worse deal with the EU then they got before with all the extras they managed to get when the EU was created.

[dribbles]

I'm from Germany and I think marching is something Germany shouldn't do so much anymore...

Oh of course it wouldn't apply to you silly, you are the master race. That march is for all your subordinate minions contained within the other German vassal EU nations.

I am quite surprised however that candidate country Turkey hasn't been mandated to worship at the shrine of your puppets in Brussels, can't think why they wouldn't go along with the march in Ankara if they wish to become good Europeans, perhaps if you paid them more?

[Pann]

Well, any forecast then. Even before the referendum the worst I saw was a significant slowing of the economy, but not a recession.

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I am not sure what the point of this line of argument is meant to be. Predicting how a country's economy will fare a number of years into the future with any degree of certainty is difficult enough when many of the variables are known let alone when they are not as in the case of Brexit. Therefore any forcast that states x,y or z will happen is likely to be either pushing a political agenda or trying to sell newspapers.

[Rockyreg]

And when Britain wants to come back in let's say 6 years, they will get a way worse deal with the EU then they got before with all the extras they managed to get when the EU was created.

Anybody would think the UK is the only country that got any concessions from the EU.

[Bakis]

Oh of course it wouldn't apply to you silly, you are the master race. That march is for all your subordinate minions contained within the other German vassal EU nations.

I am quite surprised however that candidate country Turkey hasn't been mandated to worship at the shrine of your puppets in Brussels, can't think why they wouldn't go along with the march in Ankara if they wish to become good Europeans, perhaps if you paid them more?

You sound trollishly bitter in all your posts.

[Shakari]

i am no specialist so don't eat me alive, but, businesswise this does not seem a good move.

Yes, the UK will be able to make their own laws and regulations regarding business and imported goods. However, in order to export their goods to the EU, the UK manufacturers will still have to abide by EU regulations.

Like i say i'm no specialist, but if the EU forbid the use of a particular steel, or paint, or plastic in cars, electronics, toys, anything really, UK manufacturers have to follow the EU directives to export their goods to EU, regardless of what new UK regulations are.

They could have a UK production line and a EU production line but that does not make much business sense in general to segregate your production (well maybe for cars, since the wheel is either on right or left of the car)

The only difference will be that with the UK out, it won't have any say on future EU regulations, will not be able to debate and vote on future European laws and regulations.

I know, there is more than business to factor when considering leaving or remaining on the EU, but for the business part, it seems like a bad deal, UK will still have to obey EU laws, if it wish to export its goods.

But the UK can now actually trade with Countries that it couldn't while in the EU as well as trading with the EU, because while in the EU, unless the "EU" has a trade agreement with a country, then you can't have any trade deals.

So the UK will have a large market to trade with.

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Anybody would think the UK is the only country that got any concessions from the EU.

Indeed, even with the er consessions, it still costs the UK more to be in the EU than they get from the EU in benefits.

[Pann]

Indeed, even with the er consessions, it still costs the UK more to be in the EU than they get from the EU in benefits.

That sounds suspiciously like something you'd read on the side of a bus. Do you have any actual figures to support this claim?

[Tinch]

I am not sure what the point of this line of argument is meant to be. Predicting how a country's economy will fare a number of years into the future with any degree of certainty is difficult enough when many of the variables are known let alone when they are not as in the case of Brexit. Therefore any forcast that states x,y or z will happen is likely to be either pushing a political agenda or trying to sell newspapers.

Well leavers were ridiculed during the campaign for not accepting the forecasts without question.

There were a bunch of different forecasts, by different organisations based on a wide range of scenarios. Even those that were forecasted on no deal being reached and reverting to WTO rules didn't predict a recession.

Of course as you said they aren't going to be exact, but I'm certainly more inclined to go with them over the hunch of someone on the internet.

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That sounds suspiciously like something you'd read on the side of a bus. Do you have any actual figures to support this claim?

I'd assume he's talking about the net contribution, which is about £8.5 billion a year.

[Vankrys]

But the UK can now actually trade with Countries that it couldn't while in the EU as well as trading with the EU, because while in the EU, unless the "EU" has a trade agreement with a country, then you can't have any trade deals.

So the UK will have a large market to trade with.

make sense. Though your statement is vague. What are those countries that the UK want to trade with but the EU didn't?

Is there a reason why the EU would refuse to trade with some countries? Political reasons? Economical reason? Moral reasons?
Is the UK willing to bypass those reasons to enlarge its market?

Is it possible the UK once out of the EU would still not trade with those countries because those reasons still applies?

Like i say, you are too vague, i can't judge your reasoning on its merit. You need to give me concrete example and run some numbers.

[Pann]

Well leavers were ridiculed during the campaign for not accepting the forecasts without question.

There were a bunch of different forecasts, by different organisations based on a wide range of scenarios. Even those that were forecasted on no deal being reached and reverting to WTO rules didn't predict a recession.

Of course as you said they aren't going to be exact, but I'm certainly more inclined to go with them over the hunch of someone on the internet.

The margins for error are too great at present for any forecast can say with any certainty that there will be a recession or not. So I am not sure why you are promoting one of the many possible outcomes whilst appearing to dismiss another.

[Shadowmelded]

Does anyone think this might be the first domino to fall in the EU?

Seems like the opposite.