UK will have to give up all EU perks after Brexit, François Hollande warns

[Mayhem]

Arguably it was the regulation (well, government interference) that caused the problem, but regardless of that... having a hardwired backdoor to your PC is very definitely *not* just a "manufacturing hoop", it's a potentially disastrous threat, eg if you're a foreign government the USA wants to spy on. That seems more serious than giving the ECB another excuse to turn the printing presses on :P .

It was the lack of regulation that caused the problem. Of course changing regulation or doing away with it is government intereference but the government was it that put those regulations in first that kept everything running.

Your response speaks to a big difference in philosophies though.

I know you´re more than happy to break the rules, but without rules there is no breaking, and without breaking there is nothing you can be charged for, ergo the laws need to be in place first.

Not true, because once out, the UK can decide to treat, say, German car manufacturers differently to French ones, through all the usual measures a sovereign, independent country has. Obviously, the EU can challenge this, or retaliate, but that doesn't mean it's not perfectly possible.

Yes, once the UK is out, they can decide to break the trade deal they just established with the EU and can see for themselves where this leads to. I mean, that is an option, but i doubt anyone would be stupid enough to do that.

Again, no. The UK can get all the work done with other countries during the EU negotiations, and just apply the rubber stamp the day after Brexit is concluded.

"Oh hi Canada, we just - totally spontaneously you understand *coughcoughcough* came up with this idea for a trade agreement with you now that we're out of the EU. Care to sign?"
"Oh what a splendid idea, UK! I say, this is a jolly decent deal you've come up with just this minute, I think I will sign it."

In the mean time, the UK still gets the benefits of EU membership as far as trade agreements etc go. Not as good (we Brexiteers think) as being out of the EU, but in the mean time we're still in the EU, blocking motions, whining about stuff, and basically being the nuisance odd-one-out member as usual.

Until the UK left, not triggered article 50 but actually departed from the EU, they aren´t allowed by law to make trade deals. I mean this would be a breach of contracts and the countries the UK are negotiating with wouldn´t even know what they would get unless the deal with the EU is done. What exactly keeps the EU from nullifying a deal with the UK if they find out the UK broke the rules?

I don't understand how you don't see that in this case "stealing from London" and "keeping EU stuff in the EU" are the same thing :P .

Because you can´t steal something that does belong to you?

Mhmm, and I'm sure the UK will manage to do the same, somehow.

They already are doing the same, they moving offices from London to other EU countries to keep passporting.

Yeah, you win some, you lose some. Never said we'd keep everything / everyone.

As for UBS, HSBC etc... yeah, as above. HSBC reckons it will lose ~20% of revenue generating work from London, Credit Suisse said the same figure, but they also expect London to quickly bounce back. That's fine, and expected TBH. I don't think any Brexiteers expected there to not be a bit of painful adjusting.

Meanwhile, it's not clear that Brexit's been that bad - note this was announced the same day as the Brexit bill got royal assent:

https://order-order.com/2017/03/16/t...despitebrexit/

This was probably planned last year, perhaps even before the referendum, but if major firms are either (a) choosing to invest post-Brexit, or (b) maintaining pre-Brexit investments... eh, it doesn't look so bad for the UK economy TBH. Again, there probably will be short-term pain, as with the loss of 20% of HSBC's revenues etc, but long term we'll see the economy bounce back, and then some.

Some companies might risk it others won´t. The first forecasts can probably be made in about a month.

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The UK could put 100% import tariffs on all EU exports to the UK

What would that accomplish?

[Pann]

As for UBS, HSBC etc... yeah, as above. HSBC reckons it will lose ~20% of revenue generating work from London, Credit Suisse said the same figure, but they also expect London to quickly bounce back. That's fine, and expected TBH. I don't think any Brexiteers expected there to not be a bit of painful adjusting.

I am sure that the Brexiteers being fine with this will come as a comfort to those who will lose their jobs, through no fault of their own, as a result of this.

[Deleted]

The UK could put 100% import tariffs on all EU exports to the UK, David Davis could walk into the negotiations and curl a massive steaming shit into Barnier's mouth and the UK would still not lose 44% of its exports.

We will see, when customs raise to normal levels. GB is not part of the european market anymore, and they will not get any kind of bonus for leaving the EU.

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Cutting all trade relationships just because someone doesn't want to be in your club would be a petty and a heinous act. It would also send the message that the threat of punishments is the only thing keeping the EU together. Do you realize at all what that means?

But there should be punishment for leaving the EU. I dont see we should offer the UK any special contracts for trade deals with europe anymore.

And if the customs are at outsider level, the exports will drop, as noone is willing to pay the higher prices. At the end european customers will continue to buy from european companies.

But hey, the UK got Trump America with the liar holding UKs PM hand as often as possible. Because he likes the brexit. He will include the UK to his great protectionism tours coming in 2017.

I hope the brits dont get a too brown nose when sending thanks-letters to Donald. Because they would need a marshal plan to compensate the massive export drop towards the EU.

[Rockyreg]

What would that accomplish?

Nothing much, just pointing out the absurdity of claiming the UK will lose 44% of its exports

[Mayhem]

Nothing much, just pointing out the absurdity of claiming the UK will lose 44% of its exports

You mean other than UK citizens paying even more for EU goods than they do already?

[Pann]

You mean other than UK citizens paying even more for EU goods than they do already?

In reality the UK is not going to lose 44% of its exports, it is in both the UK and EU's interests to trade with one another, with that said it is likely that UK exports will be hit to some extent by Brexit.

[Rockyreg]

You mean other than UK citizens paying even more for EU goods than they do already?

I think something's been lost in translation here. Are you under the impression that I was advocating 100% tariffs on EU exports?

[Deleted]

But there should be punishment for leaving the EU.

Why?

Do you realize that you sound no better than the Soviet Union?

I dont see we should offer the UK any special contracts for trade deals with europe anymore.

And what would prevent GB from negotiating its own deals with individual countries past the EU bureaucracies? Let me guess, more punishments for those who would negotiate with Britain?

[Deleted]

Why?

Do you realize that you sound no better than the Soviet Union?

What a bullshit. It just means they get punished for leaving the european market, by customs and taxes. Thats actually the normal case for countries which arent part of the european market.

That has nothing to do with "soviet union" or any kind of hyperbole you try.

And what would prevent GB from negotiating its own deals with individual countries past the EU bureaucracies? Let me guess, more punishments for those who would negotiate with Britain?

Actually, the european market negotiates as one, and not as single countries. Because it is a european shared market.

Do you actually even know what you talk about?

[Mayhem]

I think something's been lost in translation here. Are you under the impression that I was advocating 100% tariffs on EU exports?

No, i understand the david davis part of your argument because it makes sense, but the tariff part does nothing for your argument.

It´s like if you said: i could shoot myself in the foot, shit on your table and you would still be buying some of my stuff. The shooting yourself in the foot has no effect whatsoever.

[Rockyreg]

We will see, when customs raise to normal levels. GB is not part of the european market anymore, and they will not get any kind of bonus for leaving the EU.

Who is asking for a bonus? The EU has trade deals with other non-EU countries, they even don't require all of the 'four freedoms'. Why would the EU treat the UK any different to these countries?

But there should be punishment for leaving the EU. I dont see we should offer the UK any special contracts for trade deals with europe anymore.

And if the customs are at outsider level, the exports will drop, as noone is willing to pay the higher prices. At the end european customers will continue to buy from european companies.

But hey, the UK got Trump America with the liar holding UKs PM hand as often as possible. Because he likes the brexit. He will include the UK to his great protectionism tours coming in 2017.

I hope the brits dont get a too brown nose when sending thanks-letters to Donald. Because they would need a marshal plan to compensate the massive export drop towards the EU.

No, there shouldn't be punishment. The EU needs to keep the UK as close as possible after exit whilst not offering the benefits of a member state and making the UK worse off. The worst possible outcome for the EU would be to force the UK onto WTO trading terms and then see the UK actually do ok. If other EU member states see that, then that would really mean the end of the EU.

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No, i understand the david davis part of your argument because it makes sense, but the tariff part does nothing for your argument.

It´s like if you said: i could shoot myself in the foot, shit on your table and you would still be buying some of my stuff. The shooting yourself in the foot has no effect whatsoever.

The point I was making is that the UK could do everything in its power to piss off the EU, yet the UK would still export to the EU (i.e. there would not be zero UK exports to the UK)

[Mayhem]

Who is asking for a bonus? The EU has trade deals with other non-EU countries, they even don't require all of the 'four freedoms'. Why would the EU treat the UK any different to these countries?

I highly doubt the UK are interested in a simple trade deal and more interested in keeping passporting, at least judging by their economy. Oh and that would be the "punishment" people talk about.

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The point I was making is that the UK could do everything in its power to piss off the EU, yet the UK would still export to the EU (i.e. there would not be zero UK exports to the UK)

I know what point you were making, but putting tariffs on EU goods isn´t pissing off the EU, not at all. They would simply do the same and let the consumers decide. I mean they have less to lose than the UK.

[Rockyreg]

I highly doubt the UK are interested in a simple trade deal and more interested in keeping passporting, at least judging by their economy. Oh and that would be the "punishment" people talk about.

That would be the best outcome for the UK, but not likely, even the banks accept that passporting will be gone. You do realise that the UK has other industries though right?

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I know what point you were making, but putting tariffs on EU goods isn´t pissing off the EU, not at all. They would simply do the same and let the consumers decide. I mean they have less to lose than the UK.

Clearly you don't know what point I'm making, you are nearly there with the bolded part.

[Karadros]

´

For the love of God, please stop using that character.

[Deleted]

No, there shouldn't be punishment. The EU needs to keep the UK as close as possible after exit whilst not offering the benefits of a member state and making the UK worse off. The worst possible outcome for the EU would be to force the UK onto WTO trading terms and then see the UK actually do ok. If other EU member states see that, then that would really mean the end of the EU.

I personally give a shit about the UK. They said they want to exit the EU, then they should go in peace. And dont expect anything more than typical trade deals. I dont need to be close to a nation that rejects the EU and the shared values. It was UK who wants to leave. So please, leave. Go. Dont annoy us anymore with your british arrogance. Take a deep dive into Trumps ass, get a brown nose from your right wing comrade, and lose the biggest part of your exports to europe.

Probably then UK will understand that it really was a bad idea to leave europe and try to become the 53rd state of america.

[Noradin]

Who is asking for a bonus? The EU has trade deals with other non-EU countries, they even don't require all of the 'four freedoms'. Why would the EU treat the UK any different to these countries?

They wouldn't treat the UK differently, but have you looked at those trade deals and compared them with what the UK has now?

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Probably then UK will understand that it really was a bad idea to leave europe and try to become the 53rd state of america.

State?
They'd become a territory (colony) like Guam.

[Rockyreg]

I personally give a shit about the UK. They said they want to exit the EU, then they should go in peace. And dont expect anything more than typical trade deals. I dont need to be close to a nation that rejects the EU and the shared values. It was UK who wants to leave. So please, leave. Go. Dont annoy us anymore with your british arrogance. Take a deep dive into Trumps ass, get a brown nose from your right wing comrade, and lose the biggest part of your exports to europe.

Probably then UK will understand that it really was a bad idea to leave europe and try to become the 53rd state of america.

Are you ok, you seem to be taking this far too personally.

What shared values are these then? Are you supposing that all the EU27 share these too? As for the 53rd state nonsense, I despair.

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They wouldn't treat the UK differently, but have you looked at those trade deals and compared them with what the UK has now?

Yes, what reason is there is there to not give the UK a better one?

[Bakis]

It boils down to keeping it beneficiary to pay EU member fees ie. there is zero incentive to give UK a good deal.
UK will get steamrolled simply to keep the EU intact and happy.

UK government is delusional to think they can cut a good deal. You cant pick the raisins of the cake as an outsider.

[Teleros]

It was the lack of regulation that caused the problem. Of course changing regulation or doing away with it is government intereference but the government was it that put those regulations in first that kept everything running.

Not sure about this TBH. The (generally right-wing) view I'm familiar with is that due to Bill Clinton leaning on the banks to offer more sub-prime mortgages to poor (read: black) people in the USA, he caused a bubble that could only end badly when/if said poor people were unable to meet their payments for any reason.

You can also dig deeper and look into things like easy money from the Federal Reserve, or the huge amount of debt the West as a whole has taken on, but point is, it's really not as simple as "not enough regs".

I know you´re more than happy to break the rules, but without rules there is no breaking, and without breaking there is nothing you can be charged for, ergo the laws need to be in place first.

My position is that I'd rather just have as few rules as humanly possible. I don't think it should be illegal for bankers to do their job if one of the consequences is a national government suffers badly - if anything, it should be promoted. After all, the usual reason that a government will suffer this way is because said government was being irresponsible with its money - serves 'em right for the market to punish them.

Yes, once the UK is out, they can decide to break the trade deal they just established with the EU and can see for themselves where this leads to. I mean, that is an option, but i doubt anyone would be stupid enough to do that.

Oh you don't need to do it like that. But... let's suppose French cars can do X miles per gallon, and German ones X+5 mpg. Simply set a new domestic regulation that all new cars sold must do X+5 miles per gallon - oops, sorry France .

Obviously that's a very simple example, but you get the idea - cunningly crafted domestic regulations can have this effect, without breaking the trade agreement with the EU.

Until the UK left, not triggered article 50 but actually departed from the EU, they aren´t allowed by law to make trade deals.

They wouldn't be making any, because there'd be nothing signed until Brexit was fully concluded.

April 1st 2019, 00:00 = UK leaves EU.
April 1st 2019, 00:01 = UK & partners sign the trade deals they had previously negotiated but not finalised.

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - illegal about negotiating something like this in advance. Sure, you run the risk of one party finding the deal unacceptable at the last minute ("two years ago this was okay, but not now" etc), but that's just the risk you have to take. What the EU makes illegal is signing new trade deals. Now obviously, nobody bothers negotiating a deal that they don't intend to sign (because duh), which is why nobody in the EU bothers to negotiate one-on-one trade deals with anyone.

Because you can´t steal something that does belong to you?

The businesses, the people, etc, all work in London ATM, providing employment for Londoners and tax revenues for HMG. The EU plans to move those businesses, and no doubt a lot of the top people, from London to the EU. How is that not taking from London, and the UK as a whole?

Now, can the EU do this anyway? Of course.

Should it? Eh, possibly - it has a duty to its citizens to get the best deal it can, but it will probably find it next to impossible to wholly replace London, so it may decide the cost isn't worth it (I'm not exactly privy to the negotiations :P ).

= + =

I am sure that the Brexiteers being fine with this will come as a comfort to those who will lose their jobs, through no fault of their own, as a result of this.

If you never do anything because there'll be short-term negative consequences, you fail at life. "Well, we could do this really awesome thing for our country, but some people might lose their jobs - and in a modern, 21st century welfare state too!111!!!!!oneeoneeleven!" is a frankly retarded argument.

Doubly so when, as Mayhem's linked article notes, the people responsible for moving the jobs to the EU expect the UK economy to bounce back quickly. "Oh no, some people might be out of work for 6 months! We'd better scrap this whole Brexit thing!" is what you're saying now. Come on, surely you can do better than that.

= + =

We will see, when customs raise to normal levels. GB is not part of the european market anymore, and they will not get any kind of bonus for leaving the EU.

The UK is a part of the Single / Common Market ATM, but it won't be after the negotiations. They probably will get some favourable trade deals in the Brexit negotiations, because a lot of EU firms don't want to lose access to the UK market (ohai Germany). Finally, even if there is no deal (a position Theresa May said is better than a bad one, don't forget), the worst the EU can legally do is impose standard WTO rules on the UK.

But there should be punishment for leaving the EU. I dont see we should offer the UK any special contracts for trade deals with europe anymore.

Perhaps because we've the best people or products for a particular job you need doing :P ? I mean sure, if you want to cut off your nose to spite your face then go ahead.

I hope the brits dont get a too brown nose when sending thanks-letters to Donald. Because they would need a marshal plan to compensate the massive export drop towards the EU.

Please go read up on how international trade actually works before putting fingers to keyboard.

I personally give a shit about the UK.

And yet you can't help but write post after post about us .

I dont need to be close to a nation that rejects the EU and the shared values.

We're leaving a political organisation, not floating the island into the mid-Atlantic...

(Also, our values beat your "shared values", because outside, like, the Dutch, continental Europe basically has sod all history of liberty compared to the evil Anglosphere )

[Bakis]

(Also, our values beat your "shared values", because outside, like, the Dutch, continental Europe basically has sod all history of liberty compared to the evil Anglosphere )

Yea we saw that with secret torture centrals in Iraq2 ;x