Treasury Secretary Says Increased Automation Is “Not Even on Our Radar”

[Mormolyce]

Back when the internet was first proliferating and I was a bright young mind budding into adulthood, I thought "This is great! We'll be able to get more knowledge to more people than ever before, and then nobody will ever have an excuse to not know something, or to believe something false because of politics."

Boy was I proven terribly wrong.

My first thought was "wow, look at all this porn!".

I win.

[Delana]

Not personally advocating for an 'obscene' amount of money, but when we get to the point where Automation and machines begin encroaching on more and more of the work-force, there will need to be some kind of way to keep people afloat so our poverty levels don't get out of control.

What one should be doing is trying to get out in front of this before it happens. Some people are too excited by the prospect of a free lunch on UBI to see that it is extremely disempowering. People need to be economically actionable.

One should be thinking about how to keep people producing wealth in a world where automation reigns. If there's laws and regulations necessary to make sure that happens, so be it. The idea that the corporations are ever going to pay you a wage just for existing is a pipe dream anyway. They're already pulling out all the stops to pay minimal/slave wages for actual labor rendered. Up to and including buying politicians.

[The One Percent]

They better automate security and military forces first, because when people are starving with no jobs and a government that apparently doesn't give a shit, that's how heads end up on pikes.

[Mormolyce]

You silly bastards, we told you when you wailed for an obscene amount of money for flipping burgers that we would replace you with machines.

That's code for the minimum wage, yes? The one that is lower now than it was in the 70s, in adjusted dollars.

And what was the proposed raise? $10 an hour? What's that, less than $20k a year less tax? If that's an obscene amount of money to you... are you a homeless man living in an old apple barrel?

Regardless, shitty wages won't protect you from automation.

[derpkitteh]

more automation. kill all the jobs, humans have evolved beyond the need for working.

kill all the jobs and enact a universal income.

[Delana]

That's code for the minimum wage, yes? The one that is lower now than it was in the 70s, in adjusted dollars.

And what was the proposed raise? $10 an hour? What's that, less than $20k a year less tax? If that's an obscene amount of money to you... are you a homeless man living in an old apple barrel?

Regardless, shitty wages won't protect you from automation.

So what you're saying is we're all fucked?

It's weird to me that the right is worried about offshoring and outsourcing, the left is worried about automation. How about we just agree that both are problems (they are) and work to find solutions for both? That should be the largest political coalition ever. Instead, we're fighting over whether off-shoring or automation is the "real" problem...

Also, the 15 dollar minimum wage would have had a higher chance to work if you added the protectionist tariff to make sure those jobs didn't walk right out the door. As it was conceived, it was a recipe for massive disaster. And yes, I'm aware automation would still need to be addressed.

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more automation. kill all the jobs, humans have evolved beyond the need for working.

kill all the jobs and enact a universal income.

You're missing the unfortunate reality when those that produce decide to either stop doing it, or stop paying. If they control enough of the means of production and wealth, it would be practically impossible to compel them to pay.

[NED funded]

That's code for the minimum wage, yes? The one that is lower now than it was in the 70s, in adjusted dollars.

And what was the proposed raise? $10 an hour? What's that, less than $20k a year less tax? If that's an obscene amount of money to you... are you a homeless man living in an old apple barrel?

Regardless, shitty wages won't protect you from automation.

They do? Have you seen our agricultural sector?

[Mormolyce]

So what you're saying is we're all fucked?

It's weird to me that the right is worried about offshoring and outsourcing, the left is worried about automation. How about we just agree that both are problems (they are) and work to find solutions for both? That should be the largest political coalition ever. Instead, we're fighting over whether off-shoring or automation is the "real" problem...

Also, the 15 dollar minimum wage would have had a higher chance to work if you added the protectionist tariff to make sure those jobs didn't walk right out the door. As it was conceived, it was a recipe for massive disaster. And yes, I'm aware automation would still need to be addressed.

I would say that if your job is unskilled labour then you're in a precarious position due to competition from low cost foreign labour and advances in automation.

The idea that the desire to raise the minimum wage is the cause of automation is a laughable bit of partisan posturing though, that's what I was saying. It's like contending that if only horse breeders and blacksmiths had accepted less money we'd still be driving around in carriages.

They do? Have you seen our agricultural sector?

Last I heard the net Mexican illegal migration was negative, as in the last decade or so they've been moving back across the border since they weren't that impressed by the opportunities America actually offered. So who knows.

[Deleted]

I'm all for automation, deport economic migrants!

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more automation. kill all the jobs, humans have evolved beyond the need for working.

kill all the jobs and enact a universal income.

More time for hobbies n leveling our alts!

[derpkitteh]

More time for hobbies n leveling our alts!

yes, exactly. nothing but good computers and games.

[Flarelaine]

Butlerian Jihad

Seriously though, we ban all sorts of research, bud. This sort of work is objectively worse than nukes, biological weapons, and basically anything you can think of. It's a true existential threat.

Who is "we"? As long as one country refrains from the ban, all the research will just move there. And that country will have an immense edge in automation and robotics research. Also this technology has military uses so no country will willingly relinquish it.

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My first thought was "wow, look at all this porn!".

I win.

And I thought what all early members of any community think when their thing goes mainstream: "All these plebs are ruining it!"

[Deleted]

yes, exactly. nothing but good computers and games.

And lots n lots of pineapple pizza!!!

[Delana]

You want to outlaw technological advancement? You're the worst kind of person for civilization.

I suggested outlawing one particular type of technological advancement that would lead to the end of human society.

Remember I told you it was a problem when the revolution or the culling starts. Remember you told me I was the worst kind of person for trying to find the bloodless, humanist way out.

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Who is "we"? As long as one country refrains from the ban, all the research will just move there. And that country will have an immense edge in automation and robotics research. Also this technology has military uses so no country will willingly relinquish it.

Nobody should want the end result of this. There's maybe a handful of "elites" that in their delusion desire this. Nobody else should want to create what is functionally a competitor species that, by design, is far superior.

The military issue is a solved problem. For example, use of EMP weapons will receive a nuclear response from the US. This has been a longstanding point of policy. Therefore, nobody has even moved to develop these weapons.

[Flarelaine]

Nobody should want the end result of this. There's maybe a handful of "elites" that in their delusion desire this. Nobody else should want to create what is functionally a competitor species that, by design, is far superior.

The military issue is a solved problem. For example, use of EMP weapons will receive a nuclear response from the US. This has been a longstanding point of policy. Therefore, nobody has even moved to develop these weapons.

Tell me again how the US is going to give up on AI and robotics. Seriously, we need @Skroe in this thread; as someone working in robotics, he can probably explain you how entrenched all those technologies are already better than I could.

[Brubear]

Oh, I very much care. That's why it is a partisan issue, because one party wants to continue to encourage low skill/education migrants by the millions, meanwhile encouraging out of control breeding by the dumbest and weakest in our society through absurd social programs. Who will be the first to be impacted when Johnny 5 can manage an entire McDonalds on his own? Who will be affected when Rosie from the Jetsons becomes a standard household accessory, able to cook, clean and watch the kids? When these people are unemployed with virtually no employment options, and have 5 kids to feed, what do you think they're going to do? And what do you think the response will be to the dramatic increase in property crime, theft and violence? This is a bombshell waiting to happen, and in America at least, one group of people want to continue to import people who are incompatible with American culture and whom already have experience living in Mad Max conditions.

This isn't a joke. It's a very serious problem, and rather than focus on this, we're worried about what pronoun someone playing make believe and who wants attention desires to be called.

So which party is the one encouraging out of control breeding? Would it be the party that is trying to prevent access to birth control and abortion? You know, things that reduce birth rates?

[Yvaelle]

Of course. I know that. But most of that is done in a assembly line type environment. Some welders have to be mobile and weld places in some rough spots. Or do jobs which have not been blue printed to do. This is where the human touch can excel. But I also know that as time goes by and robots become better and better, we will reach a point where humans will not be needed at all for any manual work if we keep progressing like we have. But that time is still a long ways off in my opinion.

Ya man totally - that's why they mount auto-welders on yellow iron with tank treads - because they never need to leave the lab /s



By the way both of those videos are from 2012 (just what I could find on youtube). Today, the automation is even better - and we send drone scouts down through the trenches to video-map and spot for issues before/after installation (and create evidence that there are no visible issues).

In the near future, we will be automating some of the other yellow iron involved - so that it can drive back to the supplies, pick up the next sections of pipe, bring them to the front, and position them.

By about ~2030, a pipeline crew that used to involve hundreds of tradesmen, superintendents, inspectors, etc - will become reduced to an automation mechanic or two, a superintendent, and maybe a few inspectors (mostly because we probably still won't trust machine inspection, even when it can telescopically inspect better than our eyes, and see outside our visual spectrum).

If you don't think there is a carpentry-bot, a roofer-bot, and an electrician-bot in the works - you aren't paying attention.

[melodramocracy]

Good. When it bites you in the ass, you can look around and say "who possibly saw this coming?".

[Skroe]

Tell me again how the US is going to give up on AI and robotics. Seriously, we need @Skroe in this thread; as someone working in robotics, he can probably explain you how entrenched all those technologies are already better than I could.

I'll reply in depth ASAP. Between work this week and 7.2 it's been a bit nuts. >.<

But in response to what you posted... I'm not sure about the conversation specifics, but an enormous amount of money is being thrown at Robotics, but it isn't enough. It's a very expensive business.

Many conversations about robotics kind of piss me off, because what often happens is people make insane jumps between what is possible, what they think is possible, and what is likely, often warped by science fiction. It's completely devoid of reality based constraints.

Let me put it this way. If you assembled a dream team of roboticists under enlightened leadership, give them $60 billion in funding over five years, with another $100 billion in years 5-10, they'll build you five Optimus Primes.

THe "problem" such that it is, is that outside of (pretty boring) industrial robots (mostly robotic arms and end effectors / hands), funding for robotics research is done through companies seeking to make breakthroughs down the line, and/or research grants. My company does both. But when I was in college, some of my professors worked on the same snake robots for half a decade or more, because they were $250,000 snake robots.

To put it another way, the biggest reason that Robots aren't going to replace the human race at everything anytime soon, is because making better ones is expensive. It's very, very expensive, and unlike programs, iterating through versions is a much longer process... I'd say about ten times as slow. THis is, why my research is in swarm robotics the last year and change. If I didn't move into this, I'd have to leave the field. The robots are pretty cheap. We can iterate quickly. The field is gradually switching to it.

So yeah it's just one of those things... kind of like Space Travel... there's a lot of money in it and very smart people, but it's a lot slower than people think just because of the constraints of what we're working with.

So what pisses me off about talking robotics? People use it to segue to things they want to talk about. How robots are going to take all our jerbs (no, they won't) or how to counter it we need universal basic income (no, those people just want that and are working backwards with a convenient excuse).

I had this discussion with my guildies a few months ago and I offered up this analogy. Think of every house in your neighborhood. There is probably a good deal of design and materials diversity. A single construction crew, given enough time, could build every single one of those houses. No conceivable robot could design all those houses. Could they build ONE house? Possibly in conjunction with 3D printing, a very spartan, modular design, but not something that is comparable to an American North Eastern Colonial or a South western Spanish or Mediterranean style house. They're too coplicated. They require people to go into tight spaces and pay attention to extremely small details. You'd need such a diverse system of robots it would be cheaper just to hire contractors.

The Treasury secretary is largely correct in my opinion. Will robotics wipe out manufacturing jobs? Yes, but Manufacturing hasn't been a significant employer of Americans in decades. We talk about it because of the historic romanticism of it. But the service sector accounts for the majority of US economic activity, and 95% of Americans work for businesses with fewer than 10 employees. US employment due to this alone will be highly resistant to automation.

[Masark]

I had this discussion with my guildies a few months ago and I offered up this analogy. Think of every house in your neighborhood. There is probably a good deal of design and materials diversity. A single construction crew, given enough time, could build every single one of those houses. No conceivable robot could design all those houses. Could they build ONE house? Possibly in conjunction with 3D printing, a very spartan, modular design, but not something that is comparable to an American North Eastern Colonial or a South western Spanish or Mediterranean style house. They're too coplicated. They require people to go into tight spaces and pay attention to extremely small details. You'd need such a diverse system of robots it would be cheaper just to hire contractors.

MY neighbourhood, probably, given that it's been around for over a century, but we're not recreating a hundred years of architecture change. "Diversity" is not a word I would use to describe any new housing development built in the last 10 or 20 years. You've got maybe a dozen designs with minor variations, repeated x100.

[Delana]

What kind of rationale are using to conclude that AI would be the end of human society? You sound ignorant on the topic.

What do humans do in a world where AI performs every task a human can perform faster, with more mental clarity? Where they can handle more data/information? Name one thing that can be strived for or achieved in such a world (that isn't purely artificial)?

Human society requires people to be able to do things that have value to their fellow man. In this paradigm you've taken the two big ones away. Labor and thought.

And I've read quite a bit, including all the Culture novels. Even that best case scenario isn't particularly attractive IMO, and it would depend on the absolute benevolence of everyone involved (the Minds themselves and the people that control/influence the first Minds). I find that unlikely.